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prabhakarkudva
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Quote prabhakarkudva Replybullet Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 2:42pm
I added the sustainable growth filter:ROE(1- payout) to the above and assigned a weight-age of 2 to this filter.The final rankings changed as follows:

1. Hawkins
2. Zydus
3. Bluestar
4. Voltamp
5. Voltas
6. Page
7. Titan
8. Yes Bank
9. HDFC
10.HDFC Bank
11.Thermax

I personally feel Zydus,Page and Titan will outperform in that order because there is still scope for ROE expansion in these companies.

Would be interesting to see how Basantji's list comes up.



Edited by prabhakarkudva - 16/Aug/2010 at 3:12pm
Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.
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deepinsight
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Quote deepinsight Replybullet Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 2:54pm
Smartcat:
 
Have you applied these screens to your own holdings? Am curious of the results.
 
Also, what inference are you making from a company that ranks high?
"Investing is simple, but not easy." - Warren Buffet
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nitin_jagtap
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Quote nitin_jagtap Replybullet Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 3:16pm
There are three closely related parameters which are all related to the dividend
 
Dividend Yield
Last 4 Years CAGR dividend per share growth
Dividend Payout Ratio
 
I think it would be better to focus on just the div payout ratio and dividend yield , note that as the company passes through various stages the payout varies and in effect so does the dividend CAGR.
 
We could also possibly give some weightages to RoCE , Cash flow
 
 
 
Warm REgards
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smartcat
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Quote smartcat Replybullet Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 4:00pm
i would request smartcat to add another column titled management quality and integrity
 
Are you sure you want me to do that? I will probably assign top marks to Ambanis, Adanis, Biyanis, Chaturvedis & Gaurs.
 
I added the sustainable growth filter:ROE(1- payout) to the above and assigned a weight-age of 2 to this filter
 
Are you good at MS Excel? If you could create some kind of Excel sheet template where one could add a parameter (like RoCE) and assign a weightage (2x), that would be useful!
 
We could also possibly give some weightages to RoCE , Cash flow
 
RoCE data is available from Rediff Money. Cash flow is a number (like Rs. 30 cr) and so cannot be used directly. Price to Cash flow can be used - but you need to calculate it yourself. Not many financial websites publish this.
 
Have you applied these screens to your own holdings? Am curious of the results.
 
Yes. And the idea was to think of a better way to remove stocks from my portfolio (and not just remove stocks with high P/E) as it appreciates in value.
 
Company Name P/E Ratio P/BV Ratio Market Cap Dividend Yield Sales CAGR Profit CAGR DPS  CAGR RoE D/E Ratio Dividend Payout Ratio
ADF Foods  11.82 1.39 151.3 2.01 12.98 55.11 10.67 14.6 0.01 22.45
Ador Fontech  7.23 2.41 92.19 3.99 12 29.85 31.61 33.32 0 38.42
Ajanta Pharma  8.22 1.4 256.12 1.72 15.78 29.36 23.59 16.22 1.16 16.74
Anuh Pharma  11.61 2.76 149.77 2.02 20.81 17.21 23.15 19.71 0.01 42.97
Asian Paints  31.95 14.21 24,990.46 1.02 21.93 42.63 21.23 49.73 0.04 39.03
Atul  6.05 0.82 320.79 2.52 7.8 13.79 10.67 10.28 1.06 29.26
Balmer Lawrie & Co.  9.02 2.26 1,057.62 2.79 7.07 23.78 38.09 26.16 0 37.5
Berger Paints India  20.88 4.06 2,688.98 1.24 14.36 14.42 -2.15 19.18 0.03 36.95
Blue Star  19.94 7.49 3,962.14 1.78 21.92 44.80 35.12 43.01 0.01 39.67
Canara Bank  5.64 1.45 19,616.45 1.99 21.23 22.47 10.95 24.09 18.71 15.88
Castrol India  25.82 19.45 11,462.69 5.39 8.69 27.99 31.94 76.98 0 94.9
Clariant Chemicals  12.25 4.16 1,734.01 3.68 11.1 37.10 11.57 31.09 0.01 72.11
Colgate-Palmolive (I)  25.85 25.53 11,439.04 2.35 16 32.56 27.79 129.78 0.01 75.08
Corporation Bank  6.59 1.34 8,192.58 2.74 29.1 27.41 23.91 20.26 16.06 23.66
Cosmo Films  5.4 0.82 247.57 3.93 15.91 18.37 9.33 16.61 1.03 26.6
Cummins India  28.36 7.32 12,586.86 1.79 18.67 26.14 31.61 28.43 0.01 62.52
Deepak Fertilisers & Petro.  7.97 1.31 1,289.56 3.01 20.42 21.47 10.67 18.49 0.78 25.91
Dhanuka Agritech  10.94 4.16 440.54 1.59 64.93 71.31 15.02 37.41 0.59 20.61
eClerx Services  14.17 5.45 1,274.70 2.38 48.85 29.40 64.14 36.72 0 45.66
Elgi Equipments  11.76 2.89 739.2 1.01 14.22 34.12 6.78 20.33 0 24
FDC  10.98 2.67 1,594.54 2.13 14.9 20.58 21.61 28.38 0 25.54
Federal Bank  12.91 1.23 5,939.39 1.51 26.46 19.84 18.92 11.58 7.45 19.99
First Leasing  4.68 0.54 136.06 2.32 15.25 5.93 -5.43 15.85 4.57 14.3
G I C Housing Fin.  8.84 1.51 614.71 3.04 19.21 19.37 31.61 17.33 6.79 42.11
Garden Silk Mills  4.87 0.62 306.71 1.81 23.13 32.69 4.66 12.89 2.1 12.71
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Co.  9.21 1.43 239.29 3.07 27.43 55.46 25.74 11.07 1.24 50.9
Glaxo Consumer Healthcare  30.39 6.94 7,447.19 1.00 16.18 21.35 22.47 25.71 0 38.04
Godrej Consumer Products  31.06 7.44 11,136.35 1.18 17.84 19.90 20.74 29.98 0.01 59.34
Graphite India  7.92 1.36 1,753.03 3.57 14.9 37.45 30.68 19.61 0.21 30.15
Gruh Finance  19.28 4.14 1,162.89 1.72 38.79 43.58 26.98 26.05 8.78 38.16
Hawkins Cookers  13.57 10.92 513.13 3.71 18.61 73.21 68.18 94.68 0.31 66.95
HSIL  12.98 2.12 671.59 1.23 16.29 20.09 9.82 16.02 1.84 25.65
I K F Finance  6.64 0.82 18.53 6.27 13.98 11.12 -9.64 16.15 3.49 32.61
IL&FS Investment Managers  24.7 11.44 927.84 3.23 39.16 53.64 54.12 53.37 0 90.39
Indian Bank  6.06 1.37 9,641.89 2.05 23.62 32.51 46.79 22.79 13.33 21.99
J B M Auto  8.16 1.02 67.21 0 20.88 5.15 -100 22.29 2.39 0
J&K Bank  6.92 1.18 3,735.46 2.52 15.69 30.60 28.79 17.01 12.37 24.35
Jenburkt Pharma.  8.3 3.35 39.01 3.76 18.34 50.34 24.47 35.97 0.47 43.9
Jupiter Biosciences  9.98 0.63 267.38 1.94 23.76 10.64 -5.43 10.72 1.22 11.39
Jyothy Laboratories  28.14 4.81 2,054.79 1.42 16.23 16.19 100 20.06 0 42.28
Kabra Extrusiontechnik  13.05 3.12 286.64 1.91 18.17 35.01 15.02 24.54 0.09 30.43
Karur Vysya Bank  9.35 1.92 3,274.50 1.96 28.22 25.60 31.61 20.74 11.9 22.74
KCP  6.99 1.28 377.22 3.31 18 37.06 18.92 20.81 0.78 25.63
KNR Constructions  9.42 1.54 474.16 1.15 39.29 35.72 50 17.25 0.51 14.88
Lincoln Pharmaceuticals  5.2 0.85 41 3.41 22.23 22.21 0 12.15 0.4 24.79
M&M Financial Services  15.13 3.05 5,493.29 1.24 27.33 33.40 20.99 19.82 3.74 24.81
Manjushree Technopack  6.22 0.94 65.77 1.51 32.4 54.99 0 12.78 0.49 21.15
Natural Capsules  4.91 0.91 20.98 2.73 16.77 15.49 4.66 20.42 0.32 15.9
Nava Bharat Ventures  7.43 1.79 3,050.00 2.41 26.12 71.18 45.65 31.24 0.24 15.02
Navin Flourine Int.  4.09 0.94 287.95 5.08 17.29 74.98 46.98 25.55 0.03 22.22
Navneet Publications  16.15 3.48 1,200.60 4.84 15.49 16.43 14.74 22.58 0.24 49.16
Opto Circuits (India)  33.66 5.71 4,998.79 1.47 41.95 42.91 52.1 34.83 1.28 53.54
Page Industries  28.94 12.3 1,249.57 1.61 35.92 31.89 68.75 39.99 0.55 69.18
Patels Airtemp (India)  5.37 1.44 47.66 1.93 21.54 58.37 34.16 31.67 0.28 14.9
Pennar Industries  9.82 2.74 549.11 2.19 15.49 37.47 25 25.25 0.89 38.85
Pidilite Industries  22.16 6.59 6,893.55 1.08 16.89 35.08 24.47 30.83 0.44 30.62
Raj Packaging Inds.  9.18 1.23 7.62 2.13 6.09 14.47 18.92 13.91 0.41 58.86
Roto Pumps  8.27 1.72 34.34 2.02 20.74 45.74 18.92 20.04 0.73 21.88
Sahyadri Industries  6.68 2.1 179.23 1.16 22.88 89.18 41.42 33.91 1.3 11.36
Sonata Software  8.53 1.69 517.91 3.63 8.91 19.68 14.19 20.6 0 34.68
South Indian Bank  9.47 1.42 2,166.33 1.95 26.28 46.93 22.09 15.93 15.69 22.54
Sree Sakthi Paper Mills  7.27 0.93 36.98 6.31 22.74 27.42 10.64 9.6 0.93 86.93
SRF  5.3 1.14 1,446.64 5.40 11.13 30.67 46.98 25.54 0.77 32.02
State Bank of Travancore  4.9 1.07 3,209.75 1.99 17.48 26.18 12.47 24.08 17.91 13.67
Sumedha Fiscal Services  3.55 1.11 18.7 2.12 32.23 52.83 10.67 19.76 0.01 26.85
Supreme Industries  10.53 3.97 1,525.08 1.98 19.67 37.74 27.79 34.13 0.87 36.62
Syndicate Bank  6.7 1 5,475.45 2.74 25.51 10.98 4.66 15.57 22.41 22.45
Thangamayil Jewellery  8.58 2 162.85 2.72 104.08 151.49 300 23.19 0.93 39.93
Tilaknagar Industries  18.3 4.79 622.61 1.11 41.42 130.5 20.14 39.48 2.48 7.95
Titan Industries  43.12 15.44 12,439.66 0.50 33.36 35.57 49.53 34.55 0.1 31.01
TRF  17.88 5.1 904.34 0.91 31.66 60.97 17.02 27.78 0.85 20.39
TTK Prestige  18.06 7.5 1,034.79 1.08 21.72 65.09 41.42 42.97 0.02 25.17
UFLEX  9.58 1.05 854.53 2.59 10.49 29.57 7.72 14.49 1.58 29.07
Unichem Laboratories  11.66 2.4 1,566.01 1.89 9.67 13.20 22.96 24.01 0.04 27.01
Union Bank of India  7.16 1.7 15,989.51 1.63 22.73 31.43 11.96 23.55 19.31 15.66
V S T Tillers Tractors  10.3 3.26 436.12 1.45 27.54 54.25 25.74 33.35 0.08 17.85
V-Guard Industries  14.26 2.77 422.94 1.88 26.93 24.36 20 18 0.56 40.99
Wyeth  18.97 6.51 1,882.13 2.47 8.56 13.90 8.58 21.26 0.01 86.67
Zydus Wellness  40.23 18.62 2,015.34 0.52 72.88 96.80 31.61 45 0 30.19
 
 
Since there are 79 stocks in my portfolio, top stock gets 79 points and the bottom stock gets 1 point in each of the parameter. Adding up the scores, the final ranking of my portfolio looks something like this -
 
Company Name Ranking
Navin Flourine Int.  1
Thangamayil Jewellery  2
IL&FS Investment Managers  3
Sumedha Fiscal Services  4
Ador Fontech  5
Jenburkt Pharma.  6
Hawkins Cookers  7
eClerx Services  8
Patels Airtemp (India)  9
Gillanders Arbuthnot & Co.  10
SRF  11
Sree Sakthi Paper Mills  12
Nava Bharat Ventures  13
Sahyadri Industries  14
KCP  15
Balmer Lawrie & Co.  16
Graphite India  17
Lincoln Pharmaceuticals  18
V S T Tillers Tractors  19
Page Industries  20
Zydus Wellness  21
Blue Star  22
Manjushree Technopack  23
Clariant Chemicals  24
Dhanuka Agritech  25
Anuh Pharma  26
Castrol India  27
Roto Pumps  28
Pennar Industries  29
Sonata Software  30
Supreme Industries  31
TTK Prestige  32
Natural Capsules  33
Opto Circuits (India)  34
KNR Constructions  35
Cosmo Films  36
Colgate-Palmolive (I)  37
G I C Housing Fin.  38
Indian Bank  39
Gruh Finance  40
Kabra Extrusiontechnik  41
Corporation Bank  42
I K F Finance  43
Raj Packaging Inds.  44
ADF Foods  45
FDC  46
Deepak Fertilisers & Petro.  47
V-Guard Industries  48
Garden Silk Mills  49
Cummins India  50
Navneet Publications  51
Tilaknagar Industries  52
Titan Industries  53
J&K Bank  54
Karur Vysya Bank  55
Jyothy Laboratories  56
South Indian Bank  57
Atul  58
TRF  59
Ajanta Pharma  60
Asian Paints  61
State Bank of Travancore  62
UFLEX  63
First Leasing  64
Unichem Laboratories  65
Elgi Equipments  66
Godrej Consumer Products  67
Pidilite Industries  68
Wyeth  69
Canara Bank  70
Syndicate Bank  71
Glaxo Consumer Healthcare  72
Jupiter Biosciences  73
Union Bank of India  74
M&M Financial Services  75
J B M Auto  76
Federal Bank  77
HSIL  78
Berger Paints India  79
 
So stocks at the bottom of the list go out of my portfolio first.
 
Also, what inference are you making from a company that ranks high?
 
I do not have too much confidence in Navin Flourine (list topper), for example. At the end of the day, one still needs to use one's judgment about each company.
 
 
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chimak10
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Quote chimak10 Replybullet Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 4:12pm
So smartcat which of this ranked company made you the most money

Do you see any relation with the rank like say okay 10th ranked stock gave me more return then 20th ranked stock.

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karn
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Quote karn Replybullet Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 4:21pm
A Job well done Smartcat. I have started using similar valuation method. In addition I also try to see following equation.

(RoCE+Div. Yeild)/P2E>=2

The same thing could be also used with RoE and RoIC.

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hawakeye
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Quote hawakeye Replybullet Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 4:26pm
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karn
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Quote karn Replybullet Posted: 16/Aug/2010 at 4:34pm
In addition one needs to give certain premium for those company who do branding advert and promotion. These things increase MOAT and recognition and yet shown at expense side. For example companies like Titan, Page etc should be given extra premium compared to Voltamp.
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