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prabhakarkudva
Senior Member
Joined: 16/Jan/2008
Location: India
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Posts: 1624
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   Posted: 18/May/2010 at 12:51pm |
Originally posted by basant
they are taking chances with 0.01% of their total corpus
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This is really a simple yet powerful insight.Not many think about this when they follow X,Y,Z Mutual fund or when they follow Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.I made this mistake once which i have documented in "How we lost our millions" thread.Bought Autoline with about 25% of my money while i failed to realize than it was less than 5% of RJ's portfolio.
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Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.
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master
Senior Member
Joined: 06/May/2008
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 831
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Posted: 18/May/2010 at 10:18pm |
Originally posted by basant
.. they are taking chances with 0.01% of their total corpus
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Very well said. Even that 0.01% is not their money, it's only funds under management with little accountability, so under-performance here & there is not going to hurt them much. But for a small investor...
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Someone’s sitting in shade today because someone planted a tree long time ago.
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TCSer
Senior Member
Joined: 17/Mar/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1882
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Posted: 18/May/2010 at 10:46pm |
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but anyhow i feel talwalkar to be carefully evaluated.eps of 13 in march 12 n with cagr of 80 percent in last 3 years 300-400 rs price is easily achievable.
scarcity premium will be there for this lifestyle company.
if the promoters can walk the talk it will be the company of the coming decade.huge growth is staring in the face. for me loss will start if the price goes below 128 which will be anyway my stoploss.
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basant
Admin Group
Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
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Posted: 18/May/2010 at 11:44pm |
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That kind of growth was generated for the ipo. I doubt that they can do that kind of growth with the capex structure that they exhibit.
Edited by basant - 18/May/2010 at 11:46pm
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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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addie
Newbie
Joined: 21/Apr/2010
Location: India
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Posts: 8
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Posted: 18/May/2010 at 6:31am |
I agree that the growth projections are a bit too optimistic.. however, if you are a buyer now, assuming a 30% lower EPS in March 12, it will be around Rs 10/share; If so, I think it might fall back to Rs 170 + per share in FY12. Hence, may not be such a risky bet.
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TCSer
Senior Member
Joined: 17/Mar/2008
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 1882
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Posted: 18/May/2010 at 11:10am |
Originally posted by basant
That kind of growth was generated for the ipo. I doubt that they can do that kind of growth with the capex structure that they exhibit. |
Basantji, could you throw some light on the capex structure of the company.
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addie
Newbie
Joined: 21/Apr/2010
Location: India
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Posts: 8
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Posted: 19/May/2010 at 12:24pm |
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but nevertheless, it is a bit overpriced.. probably need to wait for it to drop to below 160 to buy
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kulman
Senior Member
Joined: 02/Sep/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 9319
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Posted: 19/May/2010 at 12:45pm |
On a lighter note, here's a take on Tall-Wall-Kars:
 Disclaimer: No shorts.
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