Well a very well analyzed article by Mr. Basant.
But I would say that we should look the other side also...
for instance, when sensex was at 17k, ridham desai in an interview told that I will start buyibg when it reaches 10k... 10k was unimaginable during the euphoria days even at sensex 17k. He clearly mentioned that it is a cyclical bear downturn for India also... No other person said so at that time. And within 6-8 month, sensex indeed broke 10k.
The Taandav performing 'Shankar' Sharma- in early 2008 itself started screaming- 'Sell and go home'. He might have announced it out of his wild imaginations, but it turned out to be correct at least. I remember reading him on moneycontrol 20 days before Lehman bankruptcy that atleast a big bank can go 'belly-up' in US, and this will wreck havoc in the world. All our Indian media was repeating that India will remain relatively insular from the world till that time. He only advised to remain away from the market. So at times he was correct also.
But yes the same 'super intelligent' Shankar Sharma lost his wisdom to his intelligence when he was made the God of the World by the media. Encouraged by his bear predictions' success, he became over enthuzed to completely lose touch with common sense. I remember reading one of his reports that predicted Unitech at 10 and DLF at 50, because they were essentially crap stocks!
On the other side we had RJ also getting completely shocked when nifty broke 3700 support, and went all the way to ~2250. Remember him clearly telling Namrata Brar- "I think market has already made a bottom last week (at 3700)". Went awfully wrong. Anyone!
And again he came back at 3000 to tell that the recovery is very near, remain fully invested and invest in highly risky stocks. This time again no one so clear like him, all others are expressing opinions about a 'range'.
I also remember Buffet also brushing the fears aside in initial phases, and then turning very cautious after Oct-2008.
So, my point is that every one has got right and wrong, at times.
and to quote,
"This bull market is very much alive and kicking and at the cost of putting my head out I would like to assume that we will see significantly higher levels before we get into an extended bear hug. This is as good a time to buy stocks."
-04 March 2008.
So again, every one can go right and wrong, at times.
Truly speaking only long term that market can be predicted!
And one already knows, 80% of the people coming to the channel come to predict what will happen the next day, and in that week. And essentially this cant be predicted- this can't be predicted!