What is wrong with Balaji, NDTV, Mukta &TV Today?
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Comparing Stocks within the same sector
Forum Discription: Here we would discuss the various stocks that are available within the sector and provide insights on the better option.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=95
Printed Date: 28/Apr/2024 at 1:49pm
Topic: What is wrong with Balaji, NDTV, Mukta &TV Today?
Posted By: basant
Subject: What is wrong with Balaji, NDTV, Mukta &TV Today?
Date Posted: 30/Jul/2006 at 1:41pm
|
What is the wrong with Balaji, NDTV, Mukta & TV Today? The last write up I did on TV 18 brought some very positive feedback. How ever many of the people who mailed or messaged me had some serious queries about why I have never written nor commented about the other media stocks namely TV Today, NDTV, Mukta Arts and Balaji telefilm. Excepting Balaji and NDTV I have serious reservations against the working and operations of the other companies. I propose to talk only on the business operation point of view since the financials are already known to all of us. Balaji Telefilm (CMP Rs 109 ): As Sajan mentioned Balaji is an excellent company with about a quarter of its market cap in cash holding, great franchisee, superior management but some how their deal with STAR has worked for Balaji both ways. On the positive side they get to produce more programs for STAR TV - talk shows, games, entertainment and of course their soaps. On the other hand whenever a company enters into a strategic alliance with its buyer / supplier it loses pricing power. Dominant buyer s will always give in to ensure you are alive but never more then that. Balaji cannot negotiate with STAR on rates the way it would have done had STAR not been a substantial shareholder. In that case Balaji could have used its bargaining power much more effectively. More over Balaji has been mostly successful in initiating concepts relating to family melodrama, kitchen politics and the likes. Of late the large number of people that I meet says that they have started losing interest in these serials. Recently the TAM ratings confirmed ZEE to be in the number 1 position in cable TV network above STAR While Balaji remains an excellent pick for investors looking at minimizing downside risks the problem with the company is getting into newer areas of growth. Media as an industry is one where one thing does not work all the time and that is where management has to sit back and think of newer areas. Also the volume expansion in Balaji as with most broadcasters is an area of concern. The prime time band is fixed for 2 hours each day and therefore all channels compete for the same time band. So a company that has an assured buyer with limited volume growth and moderate to stable pricing power would find it difficult to grow at above market rates of growth. More over the market will resist from higher discounting multiples to this company. The event risk associated with Ekta Kapoor is also very high. NDTV (CMP Rs 153): This is another stock where the concepts are in place but the management seems to have lost it a bit after Rajdeep Sardesai’s exit. The company lost the number 1 position in English news, slipped a few points in its Hindi news space and seems to be just about managing to stay where it was in its business news channel. Recently Prannoy Roy’s expansion in Media BPO in partnership with Pramode Bhasin has opened up a huge opportunity. While volumes should not be a problem Media BPO is a low margin business so businesses would just about make reasonable return on capital employed. While I am great believer in Prannoy Roy, NDTV does not seem to deliver on the results front. In case the company does not deliver the markets would take notice and de rate the stock down wards. NDTV has also made inroads in the FM Radio business by buying out Living World’s Red FM business and also by getting into production tie ups into However I do like both the stocks mentioned above because the long term visibility seems to be in place. TV Today (CMP Rs 80): Well this one is still the number one in the Hindi news space but its share is fast decreasing. It has slipped from a market share of 65%+ a few years back to almost 25% now. The An investor likes to hold stocks of companies that increase market share not of ones that give up. While media properties are valuable and cannot be calculated on the basis of PE ratios TV Today should do more then what it is currently doing to offer solace to investors. The only positive thing about this stock is that it features in the list of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s holding. NDTV and TV Today could immensely benefit once CAS is implemented but so would ZEE TV and TV 18. Mukta Arts (Rs 41): Some years back Subhas Ghai wanted to raise money through an IPO which he did. I strongly feel that “one man one show” concept does not apply to listed companies, the event risk associated with Subhas Ghai is simply more then enough for any decent investor to get out of this stock. Here is an anomaly while the stock that Mr. Ghai sold during the IPO has unlimited life span (stocks are for ever) the underlying asset which this stock is dependent upon has finite time length (Mr. Ghai himself) . How could he have done an IPO on a single man is something that only Mr. Ghai could answer! The earnings are lumpy for a major part of the last few quarters the company has been in the red. Moreover you need to see each movie that the company releases to decide where the stock will move. But right now the yadeen from kisna are none too convincing to recommend a buy or even a hold. They are getting into TV production but there I would stay with a Balaji rather then buy Mukta Arts. Please post in your coments! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Replies:
Posted By: sajanvm
Date Posted: 30/Jul/2006 at 4:53pm
|
Your point about the tie up with Star taking away pricing power is valid and appears logical on the face of it. However, if you look at their results (just declared), their margins have actually expanded. Now , I am not sure if thats because of the significant shift to commisioned programming (latest qtr shows that commisioned programming is around 91% of their revenue mix) or whether they have been able to command a better price.
------------- Sajan |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Jul/2006 at 5:06pm
|
Yes profits did go up in the last quarter but the kind of moat and brand that Ekta Kapoor had built up seemed lost over the past 6 quarters. I was a very aggressive investoir in this stock and do like it now also but after the initial start that they got things seemed to have drifted away. Now I agree that for investors 6 quarters is a long term but when you actually go along to run a company it is nothing. had they not got into an agreement with STAR balaji's market cap should have been twice at least of what it is becaue suddenly the market give you a higher PE.
Now a company in a high growth industry sitting on alot of cash sends confusing signals. High growth means you have higher RoE's so it might as well use its cash to increase EPS. I need to clarify that I like Balaji and the above note was innitiated just to discuss the implications of some of the steps that these companies have taken.
If you recall there is aserial called "Friends" that is run in the US and I am not sure if I can recollect the numbers correctly but the artists make millions of dollars per week! balaji should have looked upon to get into that scale - they could have but probably Ekta Kapoor wanted some security so she got along with STAR.I mean she could have created huge market cap by now.
Normally addressability (CAS +DTH) should be boom time for content creators but how it affects this company would have to be seen.If it can exercise pricing power then surely Balaji as you mentioned in your last posts could be a multibagger but the best part is that the downside is capped in this stock. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 31/Jul/2006 at 6:15pm
|
That these companies have half of thir assets in cash is not difficult to explain. Why the heck, they requure any other asset. they are not into manyfacturing. I beleive, that cash to assets ratio for most of them, will be very high.
Its an aggressive space, thats taken for granted. Its just how we price that aggression, is important.I always had problems with valyations of the media, avaiation and telecom plays.... and in most cases, I saved myself from being slaughtered, thanks to my conservation.However, I do missed on some decent plays like tv 18.I beleive in this space, apart from TV 18, they risk-reward ratio appears to highly skewed in favour of risks.
Thanks and Regards,
Vivek
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Jul/2006 at 11:13am
|
Sajan:
I was told that Balaji had a contract with STAR for a rate increase once every 3 years. SO the recent rise in profits could to some extent be attributable to that feature. It should be interesting to note how Ekta Kapoor manages to deliver for the next few quarters because as we know if profits keep growing like they did in the last quarter stock prices have only one way to go.The point that you made about comissioned programming was also quite encouraging from the earnings point of view but some where some how the dominant shareholder being a dominant buyer does allow you to have skimmed milk only. That is my apprehension. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: sajanvm
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2006 at 7:23pm
|
Basant - even if they cannot increase rates as rapidly as they would like, it is a cash generating machine. Free cash/share will increase. Should mean substantially increased payouts . Also they are trying to diversify out of Star into regional language channels - Sun. Surya etc.. No success to speak of yet, but given their track record they should make some success of it over the next 1-2 years ? That would be the icing on an already sweet cake. Also consider their software library for re-runs..the margins would be phenomenal.
------------- Sajan |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2006 at 7:36pm
|
Yes, it skipped my mind the software library could be a huge bonus. I do not think that we have yet valued companies on that basis in India and in times to come media companies would not be evluated on PE basis alone.
Once pay TV is introduced (CAS or DTH) Balaji can flex its muscles, but some where down the line the one man show discourages you a bit. I do not know how to express this situation but suppose tomorrow Ekta Kapoor is no longer with the company..... then there could be serious problems. Although these fears are really extended but the market would never give Balaji a higher multiple since it never likes a dominant person in the company. Companies are for ever but mortals have finite life!
See what happened to NDTV once Rajdeep left and the same thing could happen to TV 18 also but it is the question of how hard we feel the impact and how quickly a company rises out from it.
I am for a Balaji but a couple of these observations make me a bit discouraged. The fear though is subjective only. Still it is a company where we could bet on but not that aggressively as one would have apparently wanted to.
And thanks for pointing the software library issue. It should benefit all media companies and more so the content ones like ZEE, Balaji, Mukta etc.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: achilles
Date Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 5:18pm
|
Basant, the scrip I like in the media space is the underdog TV Today. Consider this: In the kids' channel market where international brands like Pogo, Cartoon Network and Disney Channel rule the roost with over 96% market share, smaller players like Nickelodeon, Hungama etc. have less than 2% share. However, UTVs' Hungama still got valued at 114 crore! Given a similar comparision, TVTN's channel Tez should get valued at 125 crore, Headlines Today at 250 crores, while AajTak (the leader, add a premium) at 800 crores. TVTN more or less commands close to 25% of the total news viewership. In short, TVTN's core business value should be around 1100 crores or the stock should trade at least 200 Rs. per share. The new channel Delhi AajTak and the forthcoming Business channel (tie-up with Bloomberg) should further boost this value to over 1500 crores. But the stock still trades at a very lowly 450 crores market cap, though it is a 0 debt company, and has shareholder reserves of over 210 crores? Even Sahara One Media trades at a market cap of over 700 crores. I am sure you watch AajTak more than you ever watch Sahara! Though I agree TV18 and NDTV has seriously dented its market share, TVTN still has sufficient share in the electronic medium to command decent valuations. Does TVTN makes a clear case of compelling valuations???? Your views Basant. |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 5:43pm
|
There is to many numbers and variables in your prognosis and what I believe that this is not always the correct way to look at a company financial and price where growth is slowing, for me TV TODAY strength lies in its Magazine business, INDIA TODAY etc...
If we compare market cap. of NDTV and TV18. NDTV`s market cap. is bigger than TV18`s market cap. Growth in TV18 is higher than in NDTV..
Regards,
Reetesh. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 5:49pm
|
Tez should get valued at 125 crore, Headlines Today at 250 crores, while AajTak (the leader, add a premium) at 800 crores. TVTN more or less commands close to 25% of the total news viewership.
____________________________________________________________
Over the last few years Aaj Tak has lost market share from 60%+ to 25%. With so many hindi news channel the adv rates are not showing signs of strengthening. On the other hand market pays for growth. Now the value investors would say that there is value and I completely agree. SOmetime back I had done a cash/share calculation and it was around Rs 18 per share not sure what that is now. But over a period of time markets pay for growth. There iis no downside to Tv Today though.
About some time back TV today was in the same league as TV 18's business channel but the management at TV 18 was quick to seize opportunities. Tej is delhi centric only.
Now if you value Tej (regional channel)at Rs 125 crores and Headlines today at 250 crores. Just think what kind of valuation could you give to CNBCTV18, CNNIBN and NDTV 24/7 that have more then 4 times share of these two channels (tej and Headlines Today).
Though I am not bearish on TV Today I feel that the other alternatives are better.Generally I favour growth companies. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: achilles
Date Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 6:01pm
|
TV Today's strength lies in Living Media (it's promoter company) which in turn has magazines like India Today in its arsenal. Do you know most of the promoters / anchors / journalists at some time have worked with Living Media before starting companies like NDTV or TV18. Living Media is the "GURU" of electronic medium. It's prodigy TV Today is currently being highly undervalued, and markets will have revalue it. At this stage TVTN's market capital is 1/3rd that of NDTV and TV18, which is grossly, grossly unfair. TVTN is not a growth story, but certainly reeks of value. And please do not forget the Foreign Factor. Although the Gov. policies are moving at a snail's pace, FIIs have got the permission to invest within the 26% FDI cap. This directive is waiting the final clearance from RBI. TVTN is the company which benefits the most if FIIs are allowed to invest in Indian news channels. |
Posted By: achilles
Date Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 6:18pm
|
Basant, you need to get your facts right. TEZ is not a regional channel. Delhi AajTak is a regional channel for Delhi NCR region. TEZ is a national channel based on fast-paced Hindi news and commands 3-4% market share of the total Hindi news genre, which is almost at par with IBN-7. Headlines Today though has less than 10% market share is under a major revamping process, and will give CNN-IBN and NDTV 24x7 run for their money. AajTak is the most trusted Indian news brand of India (source: news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/02_05_06mediatrust.pdf) and will continue to retain 25% market share which is GREAT considering the large population of India. Imagine if you are Rubert Murdoch or News Corp (mkt cap: $19.34 billion), at this price you will have to shell out $100 million to buy out TVTN and capture one-third of the news viewership in India. You have to be bullish on TVTN not just because of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, but Anil Ambani (Sonata Investment) also holds over 10% stake in TVTN. |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 6:27pm
|
Hang on hang on, then why even with so much fan following in MEDIA SECTOR this value has not been realised, I totally agree with you that TVTODAY is very good buy, but you have even better buys in the sector.
Just putting up the number wont solve the investment puzzle my friend you need to back it by performance, which TVTODAY is lagging behind compares to others...
If my Uncle became a female she would be my Aunty not uncle...
Regards,
Reetesh.... ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 6:49pm
|
Sorry I worte Tej for Delhi Aaj Tak But that is how I see it. And that is what makes a market. Two opposite views... ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Sep/2006 at 6:59pm
|
IBN 7 has a 10% news share not sure if we should play the Sonata Investment card because he has bought stakes in other media companies as well.. The market has moved from 4500 to 12,000 and the TV Today stock has moved from 200 (post listing) to Rs 80. SOme of its other peer groups stocks have trebled or quadrapled in the meantime. I would always think that there is something more then we can see and I am not prepared to wait indefinetely because the opportunity cost is high. The financials have not improved except in the last quarter maybe.
If you are bullish on Tv Today you may buy it that is all I can say.You wanted my opinion and that is why I argued. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: achilles
Date Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 2:55pm
|
Ok Basant hats-off to your analysis on TV18. May you chase Growth, while I chase Value. Let's see after 6 months where both TV18 and TVTN stand. If you (TV18) wins the race, you will certainly get a new fan. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 3:29pm
|
There is no race from my side nor would I like to compete for 6 months. Investing is a marathon not a 100 mts race. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 16/Sep/2006 at 9:16pm
|
He wants to see what he likes, good luck.. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 12:27pm
|
Basantji,
Is Living Media and TV TODAY`s other ventures like Magazines namely India Today, Business Today etc. and there are other ventures also are part of listed company ie: TV TODAY NETWORKS.
Regards.. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 12:31pm
|
No. They are not.Stock is value but value was there in 2004 also.Meanwhile Tv 18 has gone up 4 times and NDTV has gone up 2.5 times while Tv today has come down 60% from Rs 200!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 12:39pm
|
So they have only AJJ TAK and HEADLINES TODAY(National level channel)? ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 12:45pm
|
Yes, and around Rs 18 per share cash;Delhi aaj tak and another channel tez (hindi version of headlines) ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 12:49pm
|
What kind of management is this people has very high regard for this management but I think he dont want to share his most profitable venture with investor, now people are betting on tie up with Bloomberg to launch Business channel. Do you have any IDEA about this tie-up? If you can through some light on this? ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 12:53pm
|
You have made an excellent point. Something that worried me but I did not think of it with the sharing part. They were earlier trying for the CNN tie up but TV 18 moved very fast and closed the deal. The bloomberg tie up is just a rumour right now. Nothing confirmed.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 12:59pm
|
I am wondering what RJ thought about this? If he was betting on there present news channel offering then I dont think he was wearing his thinking cap and Sonata has nearly 10% what the hell they are betting on? Perhaps one day he might merge all the companies together, do you think this is possible? ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 1:03am
|
Could be but SOnata has its hands on other media companies also and RJ got a block deal from Templeton we have to see that the quantity he wanted should have been available for other companies also. if CAs/DTH comes in all media companies will be rerated No doubt on that.
And RJ has about 0.88% of his portfolio so should be think of it in that perspective really? This RJ theory is blown out of proportion. If he was bullish why only 0.88%? ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 1:09am
|
Right, Sonata has almost all the media companies, yes RJ got in at around 100 mark and he is crowd puller(Indian).
thanks a zillion for as usual for early response.
------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 1:36am
|
Despite all the talk by Damani jee and othes on TV Today and its good growth prospects, I have been unable to get that confidence to get into it. I still prefer a TV18 to a TV Today. I dunno what I am missing on TV Today as these greats like RJ and RD are continously bullish on TV Today for a long time, but I dont see anything special in it so far, except Aaj Tak.
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 7:54am
|
If you see Tv Today they have a unique problem of losing employees to all the news channels. ALmost all the leading anchors learnt their work at Tv today and are now working for other channels - Sometimes employees moving in and out of a company do give you some news! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kattur
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 10:13am
|
hi, to go back to the discussion on Balaji, has anyone included their business prospects of getting into to the regional channels? I know for a fact they are giving good competition with their programs on Vijay (Tamil) to Sun TV - this only with their old Hindi success stories. The day they start dubbing instead of repeat shooting with regional cast, they will benefit more. If they are doing it in Tamil, they must be doing it in other languages also. By the way, Vijay is owned by Star. And some of these programs are pretty popular in the neighbouring countries also. ------------- kattur |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 10:29am
|
Yes, content business has high re-run licensing values. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Oct/2006 at 5:57pm
| Following the footsteps of http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 17/Oct/2006 at 10:42pm
|
dubbing in other language probalbly doen't create natural effect.
Movies/Songs have great re-runs. TV-serials dont. Only few like Ramayan/Mahabharat/Chanakya would have successful re-run but family drama I really doubt.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Oct/2006 at 10:01am
|
NDTV results were close to a disastor. I say close because the company should get some subscription revenue once CAS comes in
NDTV sales are significantly lower then the cuymmulative sale and profit of the Tv 18 network (includes all channels) but at current vauations the stock trades at a market cap of more to http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 -
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2006 at 11:51pm
|
One of the finest minds in Indian Stock Market history Radha Kishan Damani has added 775,000 shares of NDTV in the last quarter. This man has been openly talked about by Rakesh Jhunjhunwala as being his guru. He owns the D-Mart chain of stores in Mumbai.The mode of holding is routed through his investment company Bright Star Investments Pvt. Ltd. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 19/Oct/2006 at 12:13pm
|
Dear Sir, By any change is Mr Radha Kishan Damani father of Mr Ramesh Damami? Thanks ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Oct/2006 at 12:27pm
|
No they are just related I presume but most of the investment ideas flow from one source. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: achilles
Date Posted: 23/Oct/2006 at 7:07pm
|
TV Today - A Case of Ridiculous Valuations TV Today reported its Q2 results today, while its topline stood at 41.86 crores, the PAT was 3.28 crores (operating profit was 9.79 crores). At first look, nothing great about the results. However, compare these results with NDTV, whose consolidated Q2 topline was 54.51 crores, operating loss 14.60 crores, and net loss 3.62 crores, TVTN's Q2 results were certainly impressive. Present Business: AajTak still retains the No. 1 position, and combined with Tez commands a 30% market share in the Hindi news genre. IBN-7 may be able to displace StarNews and NDTV India, but even their top guy admits it's impossible to displace AajTak from its No. 1 position. The English sibling Headlines Today which earlier lost its market share to CNN-IBN is finally doing well with the management taking positive steps on making it a stand-alone entity rather than a cheap carbon-copy of AajTak. Seems like Aroon Purie finally learnt that HT will do well only if the content differs from AajTak, and is akin to NDTV 24x7 or CNN-IBN. The market share of HT in the English news genre currently stands at 10%. The regional channel for the Delhi NCR region, Dilli AajTak has captured a fair size of the market since its launch. Interestingly, the Delhi Ad market stands at 300-400 crores, of which Radio gets 80 crores. Given Aroon strong Ad Pie: Frederick Forsyth in his novel "The Fist of God" referred to the importance of human intelligence over electronic survelliance i.e. ground facts are more important than what analysts say. I've been watching AajTak, HT and Tez for years now, and never before have I seen so many ads on these channels, as from Oct. 1st '06. On a YOY basis, HT easily gets over 150% ads on YoY basis, Tez gets over 2000% more ads, while AajTak is sitting pretty with 50% more ads. This may be due to the combined rate card for 3 channels for the advertisers, but this rate card commands a very decent premium. The earlier 10-second ad slot has been increased to over 20-30 from the previous 10-15. Furthermore, there are ad breaks after each 6-7 mins, from the earlier 13-14 mins. Future: Given the current ad status, TVTN should be able to report a Q3 topline of around 55 crores with a PAT of 12 crores, and a Q4 topline of over 60 crores with a PAT of 15 crores. Compared with its peers (TV18 and NDTV), TVTN holds the largest reserves in excess of 200 crores with virtually nil debts. Unlike the earlier English venture HT, the management is seriously laying good groundwork for its Business Channel a tie-up with Bloomberg. Though TVTN's CS says the news is speculative of nature, there are reliable sources which confirm this news (http://www.indiantelevision.com/headlines/y2k6/july/july315.htm). Ridiculous Valuations: 4+1 channels (AajTak, HT, Tez, Dilli AajTak) + (soon-to-be-launched Business Channel), Reserves over 200 crores, Topline around 200 crores. For a niche media company which has 35-40 million weekly viewers and was voted the most trusted and most important news source of India by BBC/Reuters/Media Center Poll (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/02_05_06mediatrust.pdf), the stock market gives it a very, very, very unkind valuation of 440 crores. I agree TV18 and NDTV are fantastic companies, but they deserve a premium of 50-75% over TVTN (a similar difference between Deccan Chronicle and Jagran). TVTN thus deserves to trade at a market cap of 750-800 crores i.e. it should be priced at 129-137 Rs. |
Posted By: morpheus
Date Posted: 24/Oct/2006 at 7:14pm
|
Achilles your analysis on TVTN is pretty impressive. I work for one of its rival companies, and we find TVTN's valuations - silly! Their flagship channel AajTak's position is impregnable and it will retain the Numero Uno position for years to come. Unlike Rajdeep, Ashutosh cannot repeat a CNN-IBN, and at best IBN-7 can reach a No. 2 position. The talent AajTak constantly churns is remarkable. Tez is a good add-on to AajTak. Delhi AT was a smart move, as one would have to presume Purie has good relations with companies based in Delhi, translating in to lots of revenues for Delhi AT, once it is established, which is just a matter of time. Purie's only concern should be Headlines Today. There is no dearth of talent at HT, as their ex-anchors Venkatesh and Tracy are currently prime-time anchors on CNN-IBN. HT lacks content. It is a plain, boring vanilla news channel whose content is outsourced from AajTak. The day Purie replaces the current guy managing HT with a person like Chetan Sharma, lets HT do its own content or spread its wings, infuses more youthful content on lines of CNN-IBN, HT's TRP is bound to improve and sponsors will follow. Let me add some of HT's anchors come across as amateurish like Zakka, Jhujhar and Denzil. Purie needs to infuse dynamism in HT to change its fortunes. If Rajdeep can make CNN-IBN beat NDTV 24x7 in 9 months, HT should be able to improve in a couple of quarters, if TVTN's management takes the necessary steps to improve it. The Last Word: Mr. Purie needs to see the obvious. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Oct/2006 at 7:21pm
|
Morpheus, If you are actually working in a rival company would you like to switch over to Tv Today? If not any particular reason? You may ignore to answer this question but it is very important to understand why talent is running away from this company.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Oct/2006 at 7:26pm
|
All Tv anchors have blogs/writeups on this link. I never believe a word of what is written here but still it makes for some very very interesting (creative) reading.
http://warfornews.blogspot.com/2006/03/shereen-ko-sagarika-par-gussa-kyon.html - http://warfornews.blogspot.com/2006/03/shereen-ko-sagarika-par-gussa-kyon.html ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: morpheus
Date Posted: 24/Oct/2006 at 7:54pm
|
The talent isn't running away but rather been wooed away. The salaries CNN-IBN and NDTV offers their anchors is sky-high when compared to TVTN. Do these faces deserve such premium salaries is highly debatable, but one thing's for sure, if you are managing print medium and electronic medium like Purie, you cannot afford to offer unreal salaries for people in the electronic media, even though they are much less experienced than their counterparts in the print media. The day TVTN offers that differential, I would switch over. It's all about money, honey! Aren't you supporting TV18 for the same reason Basant - presuming you have invested in TV18? Or are they paying you to vouch for them? Or is just about your website (which has no proper Terms and Policies) and Google AdSense? Or perhaps you are a philanthropist distributing your great knowledge? |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Oct/2006 at 8:12pm
|
Or are they paying you to vouch for them? Or is just about your website (which has no proper Terms and Policies) and Google AdSense? Or perhaps you are a philanthropist distributing your great knowledge?_________________________________________________________
Could you tell me in detail what that means? SPECIFICALLY THE TV 18 PAYING ME STUFF. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: psimajin
Date Posted: 24/Oct/2006 at 11:17pm
| Morpheus : Do you think market will give TV18 market cap of 1,433.77 to TVTN cap 440.51 on Basantji write up ??? |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 24/Oct/2006 at 12:23pm
|
Morpheus, are you invested in TVTN? ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 24/Oct/2006 at 9:21am
|
Its my request to maintain the dignity of the forum. Its quite plausible to react when being opposed but casting allegation is improper. Also, its quite possible that a person may speak good of a company after he has owned some shares. I have myself suffered from this problem, that I react very aggresively. Although, personally speaking I am not a devotee of this media space, yet I beleive words must be cautiously chosen to express difference of opinion. Even I admit I dont like the choice of team-members for Equitydesk XI, and was quite amazed to find myself being shouted down when I proposed a team XI. I beleive the creative juices must flow and every person who has an alternative opinion must be given an opportunity of being heard.None of these media scrips will be a value investor's delight.... they simply lack what value investors seek.There are very entry barriers except the brand barrier which they manage to build and that too is very fragile.The financials are also not so quite attractive. Stock Markets have winners who turn to be big losers in the end and losers who end up very big.... its simply a matter of time.What we all must guard against is getting myopic and treating ideas with disdain. What Morpheus has done, is simply a matter of reaction.... and I am sure, he will discover it on hos own and things will be fine.
And one request to all the member, kindly do not fan the fire.... we devote the posts for wrong reasons.... 2 warring adults are mature enough to resolve it on their own. Let the posts be expunged from the thread , that will give it a better look...
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 25/Oct/2006 at 12:21pm
|
Yes, I agree with Vivek. Everything should be debated on this forum and nothing should be investd into, just bcoz someone says it is a value pick. But the debates should be done objectively and not the way morpheus ended it. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: psimajin
Date Posted: 25/Oct/2006 at 9:15pm
|
Only Objection was for making personal remarks...... Market exists on basis of difference of Opinion |
Posted By: achilles
Date Posted: 26/Oct/2006 at 7:32pm
|
LOL! Seems like my "innocuous" little theory on TV Today brewed quite a controversy. Now, Ladies & Gentlemen let's get a few points straight: a) Basant is right - Basant was right previously too, when he questioned Ramesh Damani about eighteen months back about investing in TV18 and not TVTN. b) Puny market cap - TVTN remains a "value buy" in the media space. Traditional value hunters would refrain from such a classification, but they have to understand a company which delivers news to 30% of the Indian audience is niche. Raghav or Prannoy would any day pay Rs. 220 crores (approximately USD 50 million – a mix of cash, bond, and shares) to buyout Living Media’s stake in TVTN. c) AajTak No. 1 - Yatra.com (TV18's travel portal) recently started a ad campaign on AajTak. Isn't that an acknowledgement that AajTak is the market leader? Similarly, Aroon had robed in CNN-IBN as a media partner along with AajTak to cover the "India Today Conclave" earlier this year. d) Radio and FII GaGa - Times Group's ENIL commands a market cap close to 1200 crores. Radio was a great model pre-1980, but with over 100 high-quality Western and Indian music channels available freely on the Internet, with virtually no commercials, I am not so gung-ho on Radio Mirchi's business model. I certainly don't have the patience to listen to commercials babbling about what my neighborhood Paanwala, Dhobiwala, Zaveriwala, Chaatwala, Chaddiwala, Gaddiwala, etc have to offer. Unlike television, listening to such silly commercials is awfully irritating. However, the FII factor has catapulted ENIL to command thrice the valuations of TVTN. Deccan Chronicle and HTMEDIA are other examples of FIIs influence (TVTN has 0% FII holding as of now). e) Large Shareholders - Unlike Times Group, the India Today Group (Living Media - reportedly as strong as the Times Group) has excruciatingly disappointed its investors. TVTN is perhaps a perfect example that right politics plays a major role in deciding the share price. In spite of biggies like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (who has cut his holding further), Anil Ambani, Templeton, and Living Media holding the bulk of TVTN, the share price has gone down from 150 to 75, while the Sensex has climbed from 5000 to 13000 in the last 2 years. f) Peer Comparison - NDTV and TV18 are fantastic companies because they CARE about their small shareholders. These guys have a great PR strategy. TVTN does not hold analyst meets, gift brokers, or takes any positive steps to improve its stock price (eg. if their Bloomberg channel is in the offering they should inform the markets). |
Posted By: reema
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2006 at 5:08pm
|
Most of the members in this forum are eager to bring down ideas of other people. Instead of that they should be talking about their own ideas and let the normal reader decide what he has to do. I am not saying specifically on this topic but in several other topics where the member goes on arguing - this is not healthy debate and spoils the otherwise excellent way in which this forum is running. It will be better if unnecessary comments are deleted from this forum. ------------- You should try to add wealth not multiply it |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2006 at 6:39pm
| Agree with you, reema but then debate stems from opposition... and you know what, I am myself been that role player at times, although indeliberately. |
Posted By: s_praharaj
Date Posted: 04/Nov/2006 at 9:09pm
|
------------------------------
udayan cant hide his happiness
________________________________________________________
Yes, Udayan really looks happier these days, with his stocks soaring.
Thanx Basant, In this forum we are not able to see each others face,
but I am sure many of this forum must be happier than Udayan and singing their choicest bathroom songs.
I really wonder about Udayan's capabilities. How can a person talk non-stop for such a long time. I am not talking about the substance, but about his physical abilities.
I really got disappointed with NDTV result.
But NDTV has some talented and committed people.
The talent and knowldge of Pronoy Roy is unquestionable.
There is another talent in Barkha Dutt.
She is highly talented and her committment to NDTV is total.
Can we take these points while considering about the future of NDTV stock. ------------- Shashi Praharaj |
Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 04/Nov/2006 at 9:17pm
|
I dont think the profitablity of a company depends upon on one single person. No doubt dyan is very much talented and experienced but I dont think he alone is driving the profits for TV18. TV18 according to me is collective team coming up through new ideas and innovation so as to retain its markets share by not dragging its OPM. But on the other hand NDTV according me is facing a lot pressure on its OPM becuase of the still competition across all areas like from TV18 in business news, AAj Tak in hindi news, CNN IBN in English News etc.
if I were to select anything among media the top allocation will go to TV18 and then Zee becuase of its diverse range of business and leadership in few areas.
Disclosure: I am holding a good quantity of TV18 and have a watchful eye on Zee. ------------- Vishal |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Nov/2006 at 9:38pm
|
Pranoy Roy is a fantastic journalist but probably Haresh Chawla (CEO of http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 04/Nov/2006 at 11:12pm
|
Hi Sir, If Warren Buffet today were to buy any one of these NDTV,TV TODAY & TV18 which one he would buy? Which company according to you in these represent sheer value, which one represent sheer growth and last but not the least a combination of both? 3 Question here...
Regards,
Reetesh.. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Nov/2006 at 9:53am
| Buffet did not buy just value. Graham was a pure value play and he would have bought none because he wanted companies for FREE basically. Now someone mentioned about Buffet saying that in media it makes sense to be in the No. 1 or at most No. 2 company. My sources say that advertisement rates at CNBC http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - I think that the biggest moat in the Indian media space can be built across Cricket and Business. http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 04/Nov/2006 at 10:17am
|
Basantjee
You seem to have great indepth understanding of visual media sector. Excellent analysis & explanation to say the least. Totally agree with you about the pull created by TV18 content...In that segment (business) they are undisputed leaders.
After looking at your conviction & detailing on TV18, one feels that though that train has caught speed....it is still worth jumping-in!
In a lighter vein....(I can't help this....main aisa hi hoon!) I remember one explanation as told by an ex-Mungerilal:
He asked that of all the animals/birds, why CNBC chose Peacock as a part of its logo?........
......
.....
........
It is to remind the viewers of a peculiar feature of Peacock! It is the only animal/bird which when becomes euphoric & happy.... spreads its feathers & exposes the backside!!
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Nov/2006 at 11:13am
|
why CNBC chose Peacock as a part of its logo?........: Ha Ha Ha. Now is this the best post on the site? I throw this question up!!!
You know I do not like the experts on the channel but I also do not drink, I do not smoke. still I like http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=69 -
|
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 05/Nov/2006 at 1:23pm
|
I do have Tv18 in my prtfolio do you think it is still a good buy pre demerger or better post demerger.... Can you compare TV18 and ZEE post demerger...it could be helpful to increase our exposure .. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Nov/2006 at 2:26pm
|
Demerger should add further value cannot compare the two Zee is a complete integrated media player and Tv18 is a predominentally in the news broadcasting segment.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 05/Nov/2006 at 2:34pm
|
I am very bollish on Media Sector Which are the stocks do you think i should increase my exposure to from the following 1)Tv18 2)Zeetv 3)balaji 4)Adlabs 5)Enil I have holdings in all of them but want to consolidate and hold for long term...and keep adding at every fall An recommendations???? |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Nov/2006 at 2:45pm
|
I like all of them except Balaji ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: vishal.sahay
Date Posted: 07/Nov/2006 at 4:56pm
|
Mr. basant could you plz provide a brief information about Adlabs and its future after its demerger of radio business. I think if u r bullish on ENIL it makes evry good reason to have a little exposre to Adlabs and its demerged business (though Adlabs demerged business company is not of that much size as ENIL is but still its in a good business and run by good mgmt). So, I would therefore request you to provide not detailed but a little more descriptive. thanks ------------- Vishal |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 07/Nov/2006 at 6:16pm
|
I would look for details on that but none the less Adlabs has the possibility to become a BIG integrated entertainment player. It remains to be seen how the Marathon Ambani scales it up!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2006 at 1:58am
|
I am sorry I forgot to write this in last post and will not edit it.
Sir: Respected Radha Kishan Damani sold some 3 lakhs share of NDTV yesterday that means half of his holding in NDTV, what do you make out of this? maybe his personal reasons, but business point????? ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2006 at 8:42am
|
3 lac shares amounts to Rs 6 crores from what I know this is not significant for Rk Damani maybe just maybe he is changing his mind because he buys with a 3-4 year view also important would be to see whether someone else in the family buys his stake out (file adjustment!!!.
Overall negative if this is indeed a reduction in position.... ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2006 at 11:24am
|
but looks like NDTv is revamping.......their big tv on BSE and stuff........... btw any news on TV18....basantji.... |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2006 at 11:37am
|
Reetesh -- just wondering is there any realtionship among Radha Kishan Damani and RD? ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2006 at 12:13pm
Yes, that big screen looked impressive on TV! But these are publicity stunts/gimmicks how does that screen add to the bottomline so as a shareholder it does not affect anyone. ALso NDTV looks very good to me but the other option (TV18) always seemed better.
Tv18 should list next week.
Bubble They are related very distantly by what I know. But Radhakishanji is more of a guru to RJ and RD. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2006 at 1:15pm
| yes i agree...they didnt progress as well as Tv18.......... |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2007 at 8:26pm
|
Star
India is in the throes of major upheavals. The top brass have put in
their papers causing rumblings at Star's head office in Hong Kong.
After Peter Mukerjea, Star India's CEO, decided to move out, it is now
the turn of Sameer Nair, Star India COO, to do likewise. It is reliably learnt that Nair has also quit. Even though the initial buzz was that after Mukerjea's exit, Nair would take over. Nair's absence from a film awards function last weekend, which the channel had tied up with, was a clear-cut indication. His no-show at the event drove home the point — that all's not well with the top brass at Star India. Apparently, Nair has even stopped attending office. Mukerjea, who is presently on leave, is technically still with Star due to certain contractual obligations. Key area The departure of Nair has made the Hong Kong-based Michelle Guthrie, CEO, Star, also quit. It is learnt that Guthrie and Nair worked very well as a team, with the latter given charge of India operations independently. India is Star's key market and the departure of the top brass has resulted in a big jolt to them. NDTV calling Nair is slated to helm the soon-to-be launched entertainment channel of NDTV. Incidentally, filmmaker Karan Johar's Dharma Productions has also tied up with the channel. Earlier the buzz was that Mukerjea would be joining NDTV and Nair would go to Reliance, which is soon to launch a channel. Nair is regarded as the key player in making Star the No 1 in the satellite channel sweepstakes in the country. It's not the same Says an onlooker, "Guthrie visited Mumbai often and all her interactions were with Nair. Even though Mukerjea was the CEO; he was only in name with Nair taking all the key decisions. Obviously with Nair's exit, things would not be the same for Guthrie. It is learnt that John Askera will take over as the new COO of Star India. Nair remained unavailablefor comment. |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2007 at 8:26pm
| Could this be the Reason for tyhe 50% rally in NDTV |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2007 at 8:33pm
|
After the event - Yes!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 19/Jan/2007 at 10:33am
|
It’s finally happened. Sameer Nair and Star India have decided to part ways and are currently working out the terms of severance. The Star’s CEO is moving, quite possibly to NDTV’s entertainment venture. Ten or more Star employees are likely to follow him. Read complete story http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1075336 - here
-----------------------------
Would this really help NDTV? ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 19/Jan/2007 at 11:19am
|
what exactly would that entertainment channel be.is it general entertainment channel like Star Plus,Zee TV or entertainment news channel.Tying with Dharma Productions is big boost to NDTV.
I dont understand Karan Johar is on board of director of Adlabs(which is soon going to launch entertainment channel) as well as NDTV. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Jan/2007 at 11:57am
|
Those details are yet to be out but this channel would not be a 100% subsidiary of NDTV. It would have foreign investors as well.We need to see whether they can really compete with the likes of STAR and ZEE but on the market cap basis and the scale of opportunity available it does not seem that overvalued as otherwise it should. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 20/Jan/2007 at 12:05pm
|
I dont understand Karan Johar is on board of director of Adlabs(which is soon going to launch entertainment channel) as well as NDTV.
--------------------------------
I reserve my comments.....to maintain dignity of this furum.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 20/Jan/2007 at 12:23pm
I understand what u r trying to say  !!!!!!!!!!!------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 20/Jan/2007 at 12:28pm
|
NDTV Networks Plc, UK, seeks FIPB nod
NDTV Group is setting up a company in the UK as part of its plans to launch a Hindi entertainment channel, sources close to the company say.
The company, NDTV Networks Plc, UK, is expected to own a stake in the Indian company that will launch the channel. It is not yet clear whether NDTV Networks will wholly own the Indian company or a part of the stake
NDTV Networks has already made an application to the Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) for approval, stating that the company's activities would include "non news and current affairs channels." More details are not available.
NDTV Ltd. had earlier announced it would form NDTV Ventures to start a slew of TV channels, including a Hindi general entertainment channel. The non-news forays would be undertaken by NDTV Ventures and will have under it the entertainment and new media divisions, the company had said
NDTV Group will be raising money to support its entertainment channel, market sources say. The UK-based company will play a big role in lining up investments for NDTV's expansion plans in the area of non news channels, they add. How this will be structured, though, remains unclear at this stage.
NDTV has roped in filmmaker Karan Johar for the Hindi general entertainment channel. His production house, Dharma Productions, will hold a small equity stake in the channel ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Jan/2007 at 12:46pm
What is it about? ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 20/Jan/2007 at 6:38pm
|
What is it about?
Basant,
I also understand what kulman means , but I hope he explains further , and maintain dignity of the Forum
 .
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 20/Jan/2007 at 7:27pm
|
Some younger members have dirty mind, don't they? ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2007 at 10:49pm
|
Basantjee, I have read your views about Balaji on this post earlier.. Still I want to throw open the debate once again. I just went through balaji's numbers in AR. They have investments of 160 cr as of march 2006(all liquid) and had shareholder reserves in excess of 220 cr. This year, till date they had earned np of around 60 cr. So expecting a div payout of 3/sh, by March 07, they will have shareholder reserves of around 280 cr. This will investment of 160 cr add to 440 cr of reserves and investments. I am assuming that current assets and liabilities will take care of themselves.. No debts for the company. Now 440 cr with 6.5 cr share give a value of 65/share. stock is at 120. The business is available at 55/sh. The company even after whatever doubts/one person dependent/long term deal with star/less pricing power etc has grown yoy by more than 20% for last couple of years. even if they do not grow and just maintain their profitability, in 4-5 years the company would be available free by the cash generated..
I am sure you will agree that it is a great value play even after whatever doubts we have.. It is part of ever expanding media sector. CAS may benefit them also..
So where is the catch?? pls suggest..
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2007 at 8:09am
|
Absolutely. Balaji is excellent value but in the media sector I always overlooked Balaji since there was no growth. Dividends and cash balances protect the downside - they do not guarantee upsides. Now if someone were a patient investor then he could buy Balaji but for the opportunity cost could be high since the peers are growing at schorching pace.
Though Ekta Kappor might think that she did a good deal with STar I feel that the deal with STar has done more harm then good. We need to understand that Balaji's revenue is STar's cost and STar has a stake in Balaji so Balaji cannot dictate terms to Star. FOr instnace without this arrangement Ekta Kapoor could have told Star either give me this money for Saas Bahu or else I switch over to Zee. Now she cannot do that.
With the new sampling mechanism by TAM it is expected that STar';s TRP could decline which could affect Balaji also.
But all said and done the company has almost negligibvle downside. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 28/Jan/2007 at 10:30am
|
I avoid one man show in media sector. Be it Pritish nandy, mukta or balaji. I prefer processional setup like 'k sera sera'. I am not recommending it but one man show is sure dead-end. ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2007 at 1:29pm
|
Blackstone is contemplating investing in NDTV Networks the company NDTV would float to launch its entertainment channel with Karan Johar. Business STandard reports indicate that 25%-30% of equity will be offloaded for US $ 130-US $ 160. This would value the entire entity at US $433 - Us $ 630 million. Blackstone is contemplatinmg investing around US $ 1 billion in the Indian media sector.
It is really interesting to note that NDTV is itself valued at US $ 375 million. Thus after valuing its stake in the entertainment venture the other part of the company could be available for FREE!!!
Surely media has a long way to go.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2007 at 4:25pm
| Very true. Do we know what % of NDTV networks is held by NDTV? |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2007 at 4:27pm
|
No. It is all very fluid but I expect NDTV to hold at least 70% in NDTV Networks or at worst 51%. The math is clear in either case. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2007 at 4:41pm
|
The recent runup of more than 50% runup in NDTV now makes sense. The timing of the announcement of NDTV networks is also all too coincidental. Looks like insiders starting picking it up ever since the formation of NDTV networks came into play, and finally after accumulation, they come out with announcements about it.  |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2007 at 4:54pm
|
Right. This is why we have clean people playing the dirty game. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2007 at 8:50pm
|
Ever noticed the "stock price" ticker on NDTV profit and on CNBC-TV18? Next time when watching them, try this:
1) When watching NDTV profit, try looking for the TV18 stock price quote on the ticker that scrolls.
2) When watching CNBC-TV18, try looking for the NDTV stock price quote on the ticker that scrolls.
NDTV is assumed to be clean people, mainly bcoz of Prannoy Roy ji's image somewhow I think. The tickers that I have been watching on both the channels for more than 4 months now, throws up some very interesting points...or maybe it is all a technical glitch. Ya, I guess...tech glitch!  ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2007 at 9:00pm
|
Yes, NDTV does not show Tv18 and also does not talk about Tc18 while CNBC does make passing references to whatr NDTV's stock is doing and also carries its stock quote. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 31/Jan/2007 at 10:58am
|
Very interesting observation Om, i never observed that NDTV dosent carry TV18s price on its ticker! This is like small kids fighting with each other...so immature! |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 01/Feb/2007 at 5:46pm
More than immature, it makes me happy that something about TV18 bugs NDTV real bad and that is good... as I am invested in TV18!  ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 01/Feb/2007 at 5:51pm
|
Yes, when a competitor is worried about u(or hates your guts so much) - it means you are doing something right in that business! Peter Lynch talks about this in his book "One up on wall street", where he as a fund manager went to meet the management of one company, and when he came out, immediately called up his people and asked them to buy shares of another company instead, simply because the management whom he went to meet, kept on talking about that other company as their main threat, etc etc.
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 01/Feb/2007 at 10:13pm
|
simply because the management whom he went to meet, kept on talking about that other company as their main threat, etc etc. -------------------------------
That Lynch like incident happened in Kolkata too......ask Basant jee for details. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 01/Feb/2007 at 10:54pm
Yes Kulman ji, Basant jee mentioned that long time back about when he met Prannoy ji. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 01/Feb/2007 at 6:15am
But NDTV can do well ........but i really dont like to watch NDTV ..doesnt look fresh like CNN IBN channel...may be Karan johar can help in future..
|
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2007 at 7:17pm
| basantji do u think NDTV will undergo a revamp....with karan johar and top guys coming in.? |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Feb/2007 at 7:30pm
|
NDTV could really surprise on the upside and could go up a few times from these levels. Though it is very difficult to create an annalytical case for buying I feel NDTV could triple in 3-4 years even if it barely manages to get its entertainment channels together. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |