Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's latest Portfolio -March'07

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Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's latest Portfolio -March'07

Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
Forum Discription: DIscuss about the strategies followed by the great investors. Share an idea which would have impressed the masters. Try and bring their International experience into the Indian Markets.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=936
Printed Date: 26/Apr/2024 at 10:58am

Topic: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's latest Portfolio -March'07

Posted By: basant
Subject: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's latest Portfolio -March'07
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 12:53pm

		Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's latest Portfolio

COMPANY		31-Dec-06	31-Mar-07	PRICE AS ON	CURR VALUE	WEIGHT (%)
		NO. OF SHARES		4-Jun-07	(Rs crore)
PRAJ INDUSTRIES		8700312	9000312	488	439.22	20.13
TITAN INDUSTRIES		2961062	2966062	1124	333.39	15.28
NAGARJUNA CONSTRUCTION	13750000		13750000	166	228.25	10.46
LUPIN		2887000	2817000	729	205.36	9.41
CRISIL		550000	550000	3170	174.35	7.99
BILCARE		1650000	1650000	892	147.18	6.74
PUNJ LOYD		5040000	5040000	218	109.87	5.03
PANTALOON RETAIL	2330895		2330895	440	102.56	4.70
KARUR VYSYA BANK	1716502		2606808	288	75.08	3.44
GEOJIT FINANCE		20000000	18000000	37	66.60	3.05
BEML		538767	538767	1062	57.22	2.62
Prime Focus		882500	882500	635	56.04	2.57
HINDUSTAN OIL EXPLORATION	3056605		3056605	114	34.85	1.60
VICEROY HOTELS		3250000	3250000	98	31.85	1.46
GEOMETRIC SOFTWARE	1780000		2175000	123	26.75	1.23
INFOMEDIA INDIA		1056062	1056062	230	24.29	1.11
PROVOGUE		480000	480000	478	22.94	1.05
ZENOTECH LABS		900000	1116381	129	14.40	0.66
AGROTECH FOODS		1051200	1051200	124	13.03	0.60
MID-DAY MULTIMEDIA	2250000		2250000	52	11.70	0.54
ALPHAGEO		77000	80000	360	2.88	0.13
RAMCO SYSTEMS		154755	154755	134	2.07	0.10
TTK Prestige		0	125000	128	1.60	0.07
VADILAL INDUSTRIES	205578		205578	41	0.84	0.04
TV TODAY		1288512	0
Panama Petrochem Ltd	50000		0

TOTAL VALUE OF PORTFOLIO					2182.32	100.00

Source: BSE India.com

Colors in blue represent stocks where holdings have gone up and in red represent stocks where holdings have gone down.

Piquant Observations:

One of the smartest investors in India believes in the http://www.theequitydesk.com/diversification.asp - . His top 5 holdings account for 63.26% of his portfolio and his top 10 holdings account for almost 83.23% of his portfolio.
It is very hard to find a cyclical or commodity stock in his portfolio.
Unlike the general investor none of these stocks are large caps in the true sense of the definition. Of Course he could be holding future positions in large caps but the point that I am trying to make is money is made in http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=113 - . The notional losses that an investor can suffer are also the highest in these stocks. It is very important for an investor not to convert these notional losses in actual losses by selling the shares in despair.
Most of these stocks are being held for over 3 years. Companies like Titan, Pantaloon Retail fall in that category. Others like Crisil are being held for more then 5 years and some for even as long as 10 years. – Clearly Time and not timing is the key to these markets.
Almost all these companies are looking at a huge http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=259 - whether it is a Titan or a Pantaloon a Nagarjuna Construction or Lupin the sheer size of the addressable market is humongous. – Morale of the story “See the Bigger Picture”.
We do cover companies with huge scale of opportunity in http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=833 - The Equity Desk - Report Card section.
Rakesh has a special corner for companies that are engaged in consumer, infrastructure and pharmaceutical space. Otherwise he is betting on rising crude prices by buying stocks like Hindustan oil exploration and Praj Industries The overall portfolio is well diversified except that he is not holding any metal or cyclical stocks.
These shares are held by Rakesh and his wife Rekha Jhunjhunwala and form a part of his disclosed portfolio. He could be holding more shares through companies, trusts, proprietary accounts which are not in the public domain.
To know more about investing legends see the section http://www.theequitydesk.com/globe_troting_macro_players.asp%5dWorlds%20greatest%20Investors%5b/URL%5d - http://www.theequitydesk.com/globe_troting_macro_players.asp -

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Replies:

Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 1:12pm

Sir,
What could be the reason he is not investing in YESBANK, NW18, TV18 and some of the other TED stocks. I am just curious. Not trying to make any point.

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 1:21pm

Probably he does not read TED! On a serious note there cannot be any specific reason. He has exited TV today and is bullish on media so we now have to see where he puts in his money allocated for this sector.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 1:34pm

he is not investing in YESBANK, NW18, TV18 and some of the other TED stocks

Every investor has a different perception about each stock. What's good for you and me might not be good for RJ, and vice versa. Just because RJ holds Titan, Lupin etc doesn't mean it is a good stock for us to buy. He might have a 10 year view on the stock while we make do with 3 years into the future.

When we look at our desi Warren Buffet's portfolio in this thread, we should give more attention to 'piquant observations' (and add to it) rather than look at individual stocks in his portfolio

Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 1:52pm

One can buy stocks by seeing other's portfolio but conviction kaha se aayegaa...

People who makes big moves, first dreams about it aur dream to copy nahi kara ja sakta hai and there is no dearth of dreams [stocks].

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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.

Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 3:08pm

When I invested in Praj three years ago,the turnover was 100crs and I think this year it will be more than 1000crs.The ability to scale has played a crucial role.

Source: My Investment Approach by RJ

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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 3:20pm

Thanks Basant jee for compiling this information every quarter.

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 4:32pm

The wonderful thing with RJ is not that he does not go wrong but he goes wrong and messes up in companies that make no difference to his portfolio. For example he messed up in TV today and Midday but see these stocks have had no effect on his portfolio.

On the other hand the common premise of rebalancing the portfolio and cutting out the sharp edges in portfolio weightage seems to find no place in the big man's investing strategy.

Personally I have a policy of letting the profits run rather then tinker with the percentage holdings - people say that rebalancing is essential for reduction in portfolio risk but on the similar note a rebalancing also moves out the weightage from companies that are performing!

We had a really heated discussion on this forum on http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=381 - whether investoprs should sell shares of companies that have gone up and then keep the free shares . For the moment it does not appear that Rj participates in any such approach.

Quarter after quarter the top holdings remain the same. If Praj has ggone up 200% then the weightage also improves if Pantaloon falls by 20% then its weightage also falls. Clearly the joint familty system where the earnings of a few memebersare distributed amongst all the family men does not find conviction in RJ's strategy.

SOme one mentioned in the thread http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=358 - conviction vs. stubborness whether RJ's investment in Tv Today should be stubborness or conviction , well by existing from the same he has proved that it was neither.

In the meeting that I had with him he was candid enough to accept the drawbacks of having invested in that laggard. Any other person would have argued about patinece, value and long term and a little more of such nonsense!

Posted By: kishan
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 5:11pm

Aptech is missing !!!

Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 6:19pm

His portfolio value now is close to Rs. 2200 crores. Last quarter, it was Rs. 1750 crores. He added a cool Rs. 450 crores to his net worth in just one quarter!

I actually know very very little about him. Questions -

- When did RJ start investing?

- Was he a rich guy even before his investments? It is easier to grow to these levels from Rs. 10 crores than from Rs. 10 lakhs.

- What does 'Rare Enterprises' do? On TV, he had mentioned that he would not like to get into asset management business.

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 7:01pm

ANswered you on this thread:

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=931&PN=4 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=931&PN=4

Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 8:44pm

Originally posted by kishan

Aptech is missing !!!

Yes, Aptech is missing.

I think RJ entered Praj at 70-80 levels.Praj low in 2004 was 72.65 on 16/03/2004.

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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett

Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 9:04pm

Originally posted by basant

One of the smartest investors in

India

believes in the http://www.theequitydesk.com/diversification.asp - . His top 5 holdings account for 63.26% of his portfolio and his top 10 holdings account for almost 83.23% of his portfolio.

Originally posted by basant

The wonderful thing with RJ is not that he does not go wrong but he goes wrong and messes up in companies that make no difference to his portfolio. For example he messed up in TV today and Midday but see these stocks have had no effect on his portfolio.

Since RJ's top 10 holding constitute 80%+ of his portfolio, why does he bother with miniscule holdings in the other stocks as it wouldn't really make any big difference to his overall portfolio.

Does he invest in these companies to keep them in his radar and then increase his holdings as they start performing or sell them off (TV Today & Midday) if it turns out to be a mistake ?

If that's the case then what kind of time horizon does he usually hold on to the duds ?

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 9:26pm

Originally posted by Mr. V

Originally posted by basant

One of the smartest investors in

India

believes in the http://www.theequitydesk.com/diversification.asp - . His top 5 holdings account for 63.26% of his portfolio and his top 10 holdings account for almost 83.23% of his portfolio.

Since RJ's top 10 holding constitute 80%+ of his portfolio, why does he bother with miniscule holdings in the other stocks as it wouldn't really make any big difference to his overall portfolio.

Does he invest in these companies to keep them in his radar and then increase his holdings as they start performing or sell them off (TV Today & Midday) if it turns out to be a mistake ?

If that's the case then what kind of time horizon does he usually hold on to the duds ?

The reply is on this thread.

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=931&PN=4 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=931&PN=4

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 9:52pm

Basant jee

There is an unsung hero of Dalal Street who seldom gets any publicity: Shivanand S. Mankekar. Is it possible to get the feel of his major holdings?

I noticed that he holds 6.59Lakh shares of India Infoline!

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 10:16pm

who seldom gets any publicity

I don't know who this guy is - but there are a few people who dislike publicity.

Anything you can share about this person Kulmanji?

Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 1:25am

Originally posted by deveshkayal

Originally posted by kishan

Aptech is missing !!!

Yes, Aptech is missing.

I think RJ entered Praj at 70-80 levels.Praj low in 2004 was 72.65 on 16/03/2004.

In last 5 years, Praj returns are around CAGR of 250%.

Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2007 at 10:15am

I also follow the same policy, i dont believe in reducing weightage of something just because it has run up. In fact, i try and add on to that position.

Originally posted by basant

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The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!

Posted By: go4lalit
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 9:37pm

Another aspect of RJ is that whatever stock he entered had a great margin of safety. We often forget abt margin of safety and try to chase stocks.

He himself admintted that entering NIIT was a mistake, but he did not loose money as there was a huge margin of safety. Similarly in any other non-performing stocks he did not loose money.

After all the returns depend on the price that u pay for the stock.

Posted By: go4lalit
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 9:38pm

Bhusan Steel is also missing in the portfolio

Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 10:10pm

While RJ's direct shareholding in Aptech is just 2%, if one includes Margenta Textiles, his partnership firm's holding, the total holding increases to around 26%.

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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 10:39pm

Basant jee

Just two observations for your comments:

1. Exchanges disclose details of shareholding above 1% only. Is it really safe to assume that RJ has sold all his TV Today holding? Or is it that he has sold partly but it is now below 1% stake?

2. In financial services sector (barring Crisil) RJ holds smaller companies i.e. Geojit & KVB and these are not sector leaders nor in top 5 maybe.

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 10:45pm

RJ holds smaller companies i.e. Geojit & KVB and these are not sector leaders nor in top 5 maybe

__________________________________________________________

I do not think that a Bank has to be a sector leader leader in order to qualify for invetsment otherwise we would have recommended only SBI and ICICI bank.

Each branch in a bank contributes nothing to other brances except for bringing in some economies in scale when it comes to advertsising and top level salary cost distribution!

Geojit is an exception but then the leader there IndiaBulls and Kotak have done better then Geojit in terms of price appreciation. Kotak is a diversified play though - finally everyone has his own way of making money.

Assuming he holds 1% of Tv Today it coems to Rs 8 crores which is 0.4% of his declared portfolio.Not sure why he would like to keep that when he had 5% of Tv Today.

Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 5:34am

Bank ownership is restricted by RBI and few rules. Despite post 2009, scenario, we hardly find big shareholding from these big names. I am not sure what are rules but RBI restricts shareholding pattern in Banks. Please throw some light if any TED is aware of ...

RBI is not in favor of big shareholding from individual but they like institutions to own banks. This is one reasons on why TATAs of India never got Banking license.

Geojit has ambition of becoming financial power house, so any under-performance could be supported by smart people. KVB is pure play on takeover.

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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.

Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 6:17am

TTK PRESTIGE why has the big man bought it although the qty is insignificant for the moment and will have no material impact even if the value of the stock becoms zero.it appears that rj visualises future demandfor household items like cookers frying pans as the 25 yr olds get married and start households and as urbanisation of india gathers pace PRESTIGE may play a cruical role in setting up house holds.the co has beco agressive it will have 150 outlets by mar07 from 70 last yr.it has tied up with a chinese co to mkt its products is bringing down its dependence on cookers from 65% to 50% and simultaneously increasing its range of other household items.fundamentally a300crco by sales is available at a mkt cap of 145 crs.it should do an eps of 10 for mar 07 thus discounting the stock 12.9 times.PRESTIGE is a brand thats getting strongerand he is playing it the same way as he played the titan brand way back in 2001.basantwat do yu think

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 06/Jun/2007 at 9:36am

No idea on this except the business model which you ahve elaborately explained.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2007 at 6:09pm

TTK Prestige is a Real Estate + Retail + Urbanization story rolled into one. In Bangalore, if you trip and fall, you will probably end up in a Prestige showroom.

Exchanges disclose details of shareholding above 1% only.

So this list contains the list of stocks where RJ owns more than 1% of the company. So RJ is worth more than Rs. 2,200 crores?

If RJ happens to own 0.9% of Reliance Industries, we wouldn't know about it.

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 07/Jun/2007 at 7:25pm

RJ has many PE+VC investments too in non-listed entities. Unconfirmed sources suggest that he'd be worth much more than US$ 1 Bn.

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: heponly
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2007 at 9:54am

Ttk prestige had plans of venturing into Modular kitchen since last 2 yrs. But hasnt been able to make a dent into it. In Bangalore also, other Modular kitchens are visible like Faber etc. At this price the margin of safety is good for Ttk. Just imagine if they really get through the modular kitchen selling, then it is an indirect play into real estate,consumption and rising earning potential of Indians.
Lets take a simple calculation, even with modest investment of Rs 20 to 25 lac on the house by a middle and upper class segment the hobson’s choice is now a modular kitchen. Even if one store is able to sell 3 modular kitchen a month it will add at least 150(no: of stores)*3=450 pieces.assuming each costs around 1.5lakh,it will make 7crore per month = 84 crs to the top line
all these calculation is very much easily achievable if management decides to act faster and be the 1st mover in this space by using its Brand name

Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 3:04pm

Given its brand image, retail network and demand projections one can imagine what RJ sees in the stock.But it may be a trading idea as far as he is concerned since his holding is insignificant at present.One can be sure of his investment interest only if he buys agressively.

In any case its worth analysing TTK Prestige-if it merits RJ'S attention.

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Ajith

Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 10:25am

Marganta Textiles Pvt Ltd

6952746

18.47

RJ Investments in Aptech through Marganta Textiles..At current price,it is worth Rs.213 crores.Basantji have still not added this investment.

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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett

Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 09/Jun/2007 at 10:43am

Yes,TTK Prestige is worth looking at.I was wrong.Its an unlikely trading idea.

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Ajith

Posted By: s_praharaj
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 1:07am

Another company where RJ is increasing his stake is Geometric Software.

This IT company is in a niche sectore of Engineering CAD/CAM designs and something like that. Even Godrej has a substantial stake in the company. Their Mumbai office is also placed in Vikhroli, in Godrej's factory area.

If anyone can analyse the company in detail, it will be helpful.

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Shashi Praharaj

Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2007 at 12:07pm

Does anyone know what time is the second part of the interview being
shown on CNBC today?

Basant,

I did not understand his comment on real estate companies not paying any
tax? Is that true? If so, why is that so? Is there some exemption for them
like the IT companies?

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The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!

Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2007 at 12:42pm

I looked into Unitech and DLF's financials - these guys are paying taxes. DLF paid Rs. 600 crores as taxes in FY07.

RJ is probably talking about smaller real estate companies which cook up the books by showing high expenses - so that they don't have to pay too much tax.

But I think this was before the stock market discovered real estate companies. From now, I think most real estate will pay taxes properly - and show high net profits - so that they get good valuation in the stock market.

Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 14/Jun/2007 at 8:52am

ttk prestige has done 11.3 crs for the full yr and declared a div of rs 3 giving an eps of 10 and a discounting of 12.9.a 55%increas over last yr

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

Posted By: mragarwal
Date Posted: 15/Jun/2007 at 5:03pm

Among the unknwn holdings, VIP and Surya Roshini are definately 2 of them. Maybe, you have already discussed those here!

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Jun/2007 at 5:47pm

Originally posted by mragarwal

Among the unknwn holdings, VIP and Surya Roshini are definately 2 of them. Maybe, you have already discussed those here!

I do not think RJ is holding these two companies!

Posted By: psimajin
Date Posted: 15/Jun/2007 at 5:54pm

Originally posted by mragarwal

Among the unknwn holdings, VIP and Surya Roshini are definately 2 of them. Maybe, you have already discussed those here!

These are RD reco's and not RJ holdings

Posted By: mragarwal
Date Posted: 17/Jun/2007 at 1:18pm

Thanks for the correction. Anyway, this may not be related to this thread- but i was wondering where I can post links to useful research reports. There are plenty of them on web. Further, there is also edelCap's infrastructure report- a mamoth 1000 plus report. I used this to invest in ABB, L&T and SREI.

To cut it short- where can i post the links for sector/stock reports?

Posted By: sacsharma
Date Posted: 17/Jun/2007 at 9:44pm

Being a trader- a common thing I see in all RJ stocks is that most of them are hitting new lifetime highs!
Atleast all his top performers in the portfolio are nicely trending upwards.
Be it Praj,Titan, Punj LLoyd or CRISIL.
I feel all these stocks are still worth entering. My backtesting with stocks which makes new high shows that they continue to trend upwards.
Of course, psychologically people find it difficult to add such stocks.Why-coz we always look back as to how much stock has "already" moved.
But remember when RJ added Praj, it had already moved from 10 to 100! I think he added more when famous VC-Vinod Khosla of KPCB invested in praj at around 125. May be this reinforced RJ's conviction.

Cheers,

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Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2007 at 10:24pm

May it be a matter of Academic purpose in this section

I suddenly find a collection from my PC about RJs portfolio that probably he possessed on or before 05-04-2006 (It was received on that date from a friend-I also did not know that his gift also contain this file along with many other PDF / doc files, Sorry for delay)- A cut copy paste again

Share Holding By Rakesh Jhunjhunwla

1. Praj Industries 12.33%
2. Agro tech foods 4.31%
3. Beml 2.81%
4. Crisil 14%
5. Geometric Software 6.54%
6. Jb chemicals and Pharma 1.06%
7. KPIT Info systems 2.94%
8. Lupin 1.42%
9. Pantaloon Retail 1.07%
10. Relaxo Footwear 2.5%
11. Schlafhost 1.03%
12. Titan Industries 6.52%
13. Transport Corporation Of India 3.36%
14. Matrix Labs 1.59%
15. Nagarjuna Constructions 8.51%
16. Hindistan Oil exploration Ltd 2.84%
17. Federal Bank 1.91%
18. Karur Vaysa 2 sptechnitrends:
19. Ramco Systems 2.23%
20. Futura Poly 3%
21. Mid day Multimedia 5.29%
22. Balaji Amines Ltd 3.33%
23. Geojit 13%
24. Bilcare 9.1%
25. Infomedia India 6.56%

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I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2007 at 10:29pm

These are the company holdings and not as a percentage of his portfolio.

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2007 at 11:44pm

Originally posted by basant

These are the company holdings and not as a percentage of his portfolio.

I am not sure how the data was collected and reflected. Total sum is more than 100% as represented, so can not be necessarily the percentage representation of portfolio (unless there are some mistake in writing of certain percentage). You are right

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I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso

Posted By: monu_duggad
Date Posted: 24/Jun/2007 at 6:57pm

Prof Mankekar is well known in MBA circles...he is with Jamnalal Bajaj ...humble and down to earth...doesnt like publicity..has got uncanny knack of spotting stocks in there embryonic stage..

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If you think you can,You Can

Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 24/Jun/2007 at 11:33pm

Prof Mankekar is well known in MBA circles

-------------------------------------------------------------------

He is well known among TEDdies too! He spotted Pantaloon,Ind Swift Lab and Spanco Tele before anyone else.

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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett

Posted By: ganiga
Date Posted: 25/Jun/2007 at 5:05pm

Not sure if RJ has holdings in futura polysters, but heard that he has some huge stake in Innovassynth Technologies (India) Ltd., ("Innovassynth").
the managment of futura has informed that, for every 23 equity shares held in futura poly , the shareholders of the Company will be offered 10 equity shares in Innovassynth. Futura can be a multibagger

Posted By: kattur
Date Posted: 25/Jun/2007 at 10:27am

A few months ago, Jagdish Malkani came on CNBC and recommended Futura Polyester and said that RJ also has a huge stake in it. I had infact asked the TED whether any of them have heard of this. I have personally taken a big stake in this.

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kattur

Posted By: Ashish B Vyas
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2007 at 1:15am

Its great, But As per Rakesh junZ. Mkt is not going.

As per my knowledge Market will go as per public opinion.

Big investor first they buy Shares & after tell to public then they will

sell that shares in the mkt at high value.

What about RNRL. & nagarjuna Fertilizer, & IKF Technologies.

I had seen that this company is fundamantally too strong...

Whats your opinon....?

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Best Regards,
Ashish B. Vyas

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2007 at 8:07am

I am not bullish on the 3 stocks listed above.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: ganiga
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2007 at 3:38pm

Nagarjuna fertiliser has shown strength due to The media had reports on June 02, 2007 that Rallis India may acquire a stake in the company.,the company has denied it, on IKFT has some order booked for Biofuel from IOC, RNRL long term view looks bullish.

Can you comment on Neocure Therapeutics Ltd.

Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2007 at 8:57pm

the doctor in me suggests that investors who understand pharma should sstart looking at ZENOTECH LABS and BILCARE iam a late enterent in bilcare but still see CLINCAL RESEARCHas a very big opfor such cos.zeno bcos of new products in pipeline and has received royalty from ranbaxy 9 crs for the qrt np of 4 crs.although revenues could be lumpy.there is room for bilcares 1500 cr mkt cap to grow signifantly higher

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2007 at 9:20pm

there is room for bilcares 1500 cr mkt cap to grow signifantly higher

------------------------------------------------

Doctor Saab, how much higher?.....any guesstimate?

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: tyler_durden
Date Posted: 11/Jul/2007 at 4:55pm

What money managers expect in 2007

Seven stock market experts discuss the prospects for Indian stocks in the annual roundtable organised by Capitalideasonline.com.
Ramesh Damani: To start the discussion we turn to the king of the panel first - so I'll start with you, Rakesh, as always. Well, what do you think of the market?

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: The bullish market is not the index, it is the bullishness of the Indian economy. And as long as I don't come to a conclusion that India's growth is not going to accelerate or we are not going to maintain 8-9 per cent economic growth constantly - this bull market is always going to remain alive whether the index is 12,000 or 20,000. The bull market is in the Indian economy and not in the stock market.

Although you could have the economy growing but you could have very high interest rates which is a big factor in the valuation of the market. That could temporarily disturb the market.

As long as India's economy is doing well and I see no reason why it shouldn't - the bull market is very much alive and kicking for me.

Ramesh Damani: Sometime they say stock prices are slave to corporate profits over the long term. What is your outlook for corporate profits or the Sensex in 2007?

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: Well, to be very frank, I don't do too much mathematical research. I don't say that India is going to have consistent profit growth of 25-30 per cent y-o-y.

But I do believe that you have the biggest market and the biggest opportunity for all companies is the economy. Look at any sector, everything is at such an early stage of growth.

Ramesh Damani: I now have a question for you. We have had four years of solid gains in the Sensex. Do you make it five years in a row for 2007?

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: Well, seeing the apprehensions that people have, I don't see any reason why it shouldn't be. Because if you have 15 to 18 per cent earnings growth, unless P/Es dip or those earnings dip, I don't see any reason why there should not be a positive year.

Ramesh Damani: Sanjoy, in the 2006 roundtable, you had said that India will grow but it might be unprofitable growth. Were you here too early? Will margins shrink this year or inflation lead to unprofitable growth?

Sanjoy Bhattacharyya: I got it wrong the previous year. Clearly, I missed the way the economy would respond to a number of different stimuli - whether it was policy driven or liquidity driven - and many of those remain in place. To not have learned from that would be a tremendous sin.

Much of what has transpired in the past 12 months is indicative as Rakesh said of a turning point for this nation's economy.

This market bears a burden of very high expectations. And the way people are pricing future earnings suggests that, the penalty for getting that wrong will actually be quite serious.

I don't doubt that if you have an economy growing at 14-15 per cent in nominal terms and you have certain advantages, which are there to stay and which are long term in nature, things are improving. That is a clear indication that things are getting better. That can only help productivity.

Ramesh Damani: And margins then?

Sanjoy Bhattacharyya: Margins are a function of where you are. I mean clearly in manufacturing margins are driven by factors, which are not solely in the control of our economy.

Today we are much more open as an economy. There is much less tariff protection; much more global impact of commodity prices. So you are not able to insulate yourself from them and as we speak today, a lot of these things suggest that margins will be under pressure.

Ramesh Damani: If you were to say outlook for 2007 in terms of the Sensex, would you say it would be a negative year?

Sanjoy Bhattacharyya: I do think though that 2007 will not have the kind of returns we have seen in the last four years. We will not see 30-40 per cent plus type returns spread. The last four years actually have seen the index multiplying 4 1/2 times.

Ramesh Damani: Raamdeo, you started this great Bull Run with low interest rates as you said because previously capital was always crowded. In 2003 capital became easily available.

Now you're seeing the tightening-prime rates are going up, housing rates are going up. Can that then stop all or even finish this bull market because interest rates are now swinging from low to extremely high?

Raamdeo Agarwal: This is the first globalised bull run in every asset class all over the world. The world economy is struggling to figure out all this noise about inflation, and only time will tell because there is no dearth of money.

The government is worried about the response to inflation and is saying the rate will fall in April. But the issue is that it is responding by closing down exports. So what happens is when sugar export was possible, you banned it. You got the inflation under control but what happened? It has shattered the entire sugar community.

Ramesh Damani: Raamdeo, what are your (Motilal Oswal's) forecasts for 2007 Sensex earnings?

Raamdeo Agrawal: By the last count when this quarterly results got completed, our team had an EPS of Rs 710 for FY07 and more like Rs 840-845 for FY08 for the Sensex stocks.

Ramesh Damani: Madhu, Jim Rogers says that there is a 20-year bull market for commodities. But yet commodities sold off quite sharply recently. If you see, oils, zinc, copper have all sold off. What is your view on the commodities price going ahead?

Madhu Kela: See, I am not a commodity expert. But however you see there are pockets of commodities, which will do well. Soft commodities in the world would do well.

Things like food grains, which have not seen any price - real rise in the world - will do well. But, I am truly scared when I look at let's say something like zinc. You know on a five-year perspective is there a possibility that zinc prices can be stable at $3000-3500 a tonne while your cost of production is $500-600 for an efficient player? So these commodity prices, which have really hit a significant high from their lows may not sustain. But that does not mean you will have bearishness across the board in commodities.

Ramesh Damani: Madhu, you have been one of the most successful stock pickers. Any particular themes that you think will work in 2007? In 2006, Madhu had come here and had said the thing to attract is real estate. What do you think of real estate now?

Madhu Kela: I am certainly not as gung-ho as I was last year. And in my wildest of imaginations, I also didn't expect that stocks will go 100 times in a matter of a year. So, having said that, I don't think you can completely ignore this sector because this is where 30-40 crore (300-400 million) Indians are interested. Land and property would always be an interest to India. So you have to be far more stock specific and try and find value which will emerge in this sector.

Ramesh Damani: Tell us how the Sensex will end this year, plus or minus?

Madhu Kela: I am positive in a longer run. Making money is going to be tough if I take a 12-18 or even 24 months period. There are not companies which are available at 5 or 10 P/E multiples. However, we have had 50 years of under-valuation in India. What is the big deal about over-valuation for 12 or 18 months?

Ramesh Damani: Prashant, how seriously should investors view the threat of inflation and what do you tell your investors and how do you protect your portfolio in this case?

Prashant Jain: Real inflation is actually much more than probably what the numbers are suggesting. The largest component in any household expenditure is a house and houses are clearly unaffordable by whichever measure you see. If you look at the inflationary impact on the total consumption expenditure of the household, inflation is way in excess of what these numbers suggest.

Banks are offering 10-11 per cent on deposits, and as we go into March they may start offering 12 per cent. So over long periods of time, there is certainly a strong case to be made that exposure to equities in Indian households which is very low should increase significantly but I don't know at what pace it will happen - given the fact that fixed maturity plans from mutual funds offer virtually safe 10 per cent return, which used to be 5-6 per cent two-three years back.

Economic growth will still accelerate, but profit growth will slow down. Profit growth will be lower in 2008 than the profit growth in 2007, and 2009 will be even lower.

Ramesh Damani: Does Raamdeo's Sensex earnings target of Rs 840-845 seem too optimistic to you?

Prashant Jain: Yes. I don't look at the Sensex as one composite.

In fact, Sensex has two parts to it�the secular growth companies, which would be companies like telecom, IT, consumer goods and the cyclicals. If you split the Sensex into these two parts, you will get a more realistic picture of the valuations. And it is not very good. If you look at the secular growth companies they are all trading at close to 20 times FY09 earnings - two years forward, which is not cheap.

And there are risks - telecom will certainly slow down by then. You cannot have 100 crore mobiles in India in the next four-five years. So it has to slow down. You can only argue whether it will take three months or six months or one year.

Cyclical growth companies are trading significantly above replacement cost and we are somewhere close to a peak cycle. So how the sectors will pan out, how zinc, lead, aluminium and steel prices behave, how the margins behave is very hard to forecast. One thing is clear that these are economically unsustainable prices and these profits are not likely to sustain for long time.

Ramesh Damani: Anoop, what is your outlook for the market? Are you more cautious or optimistic?

Anoop Bhaskar: Last year has been quite camouflaged. If you look at the large-caps, there are only six or seven stocks, which have contributed to the entire movement of the markets.

In terms of small-caps, we have been in a bear market for the last 15-18 months. So, it is only six stocks, which have made this whole audience come out here and say that we are still in a bull market. The bull market has stopped around 12-15 months back, frankly.

People with only small-caps and mid-caps in their portfolios would have only gained about 8-12 per cent in the last eight months, which is not a bull market. I think we're taking a breather.

With interest rates being where they are, a rational investor would take a three-month deposit paying about 9.5-10 per cent. So, people should invest in debt rather than equity with such returns from the markets.

In equity it is more like a marathon - you cannot run a sprint all the time. This is the point where you conserve your energy for the next 12-18 months and make sure that you conserve your capital for the next round. You cannot keep on running a 100-metre sprint for the next 20 years for sure. There are times when...

Ramesh Damani:...you got to move to debt or the like. Having said that, for the record, I think everyone knows the answer, but what would 2007 end for the Sensex, plus or minus?

Anoop Bhaskar: It will depend a lot on liquidity because what really matters today is not value, it's only liquidity. I think the Sensex will be down between 7-10 per cent.

Ramesh Damani: In the first part, we surveyed the forest. Now we take a look at the trees. How do you turn the big picture view about the economy, interest rates, equity markets into winning stocks? There is, of course lies the essence of successful investing. I will start with my favourite stock-picker, Bhattacharyya� I would like to see three good stock ideas from you, for one year or three years�

Sanjoy Bhattacharyya: Tata Elxsi, Grindwell Norton and Rane (Madras). Tata Elxsi is in a focused business, it has gone away from doing things which it didn't do well earlier. So, it has learnt from the past mistakes and is actually a rare company in information technology where the margins are becoming higher and higher progressively.

Second, the valuations still remain very attractive. This year it will earn Rs 16 per share. If you leave out the fact that it has had a difficult and troubled past, its earnings power relative to capital that it is employing is very impressive, a reasonably impressive management team and the growth is definitely sustainable.

Ramesh Damani: And a merger with TCS on cards?

Sanjoy Bhattacharyya: That would be a cherry on the top. I need not worry about that at all, even if it does not merge with TCS. Next one, Rane (Madras) is a play on the Indian automotive industry. It is in linkage products and manual steering gears.

Fortunately, in the Indian passenger vehicles, tractors, LCV business, a very large proportion of vehicles manufactured in these categories have manual steerings. So, growth is assured.

Second, it has a very strong dominant competitive position with only two serious competitors - Sona Koyo and ZF Steering, and the record of all three suggests that the industry as a whole is doing very well. Third, it has been through a major financial restructuring.

So, you will see a dramatic change in terms of the efficiency with which capital is utilised to prepare and grow for the future. And in exports, it has a link with TRW, a major global player.

Hopefully we will see Rs 100 crore (Rs 1 billion) exports in this to TRW by the year 2009 which will actually change the operating margin profile of Rane (Madras). Because right now the EBITDA margin is very low at 9.5-10 per cent which over time should improve and there should be benefits of scale.

It is cheap, it is going to earn about Rs 11.50 a share and it will continue to grow at 20-25 per cent for the next three years. Reasonably competent, trading at 8 times this year's earnings, you should be all right.

Grindwell Norton is a quasi player at the middle of the abrasives market, with only two other big players: at the bottom is Orient Abrasives and Carborundum is the other one at the high end with coated abrasives.

With the industry growing at 9-10 per cent, an abrasive is like a consumable. To that extent, demand is assured, no hiccups.

The interesting thing is that Grindwell has managed to become far more efficient on the working capital front, sales growth has been 12-15 per cent and the company is now moving into higher and higher value added products as it has consolidated market share at the bottom end. So, there is a scope for increasing profitability with virtually no incremental capital employed.

Other names that I like are as follows: EIH Associated Hotels, which has gone through a major transformation. Another company called Steelcast and the third one is a company called Amara Raja Batteries.

All are on the same theme: cheap, sustainable earning power, volume growth, well managed. Oh, and one more company, ABC Bearings which has margins higher than the industry leaders. It is growing and it is very cheap at 8 times this year's earnings.

Ramesh Damani: Raamdeo, what ideas do you bring for us?

Raamdeo Agrawal: I prefer business leaders - globally competitive and somewhat unpopular. One is Tata Steel. In 1994, it was struggling with half a million tonne and see the transformation of its balance sheet in the last 12 years. Although it is a cyclical business, this is one company that can execute, has competence, passion and trained people who understand steel like nobody else does.

The opportunity to make money in steel is going to be huge in the next five-ten years. I am not happy with the price it has paid for Corus, but one thing can happen. Corus' average price is about $950 whereas that of Tata Steel is about $550.

The opportunity is that Tata Steel will borrow the technology and competence from Corus to bring up its entire 10-12 million tonne steel to fetch $900 average. And Corus doesn't know how to operate blast furnaces.

They pour hot metal at $450. These guys will supply them the technology to bring it down to $150. That is what should pan out. Whether it will or not, at this price you cannot lose much. If it happens, then this should give a very good return.

Second leader in its own category is Glaxo. It has underperformed the market in the past year. The reason is twofold: its earnings didn't grow much and valuations were pretty stretched at the beginning of the year.

But in 2008 there are 3-4 patented products, which are going to be launched globally from Glaxo's portfolio and they will be launched simultaneously in India. I think at current valuation of 22-23 times CY07 earnings, you are not paying a very high price.

The patent law is in place, the products are being launched and it has a very good, transparent management. Of course, it is not a momentum driven stock, one cannot predict whether in six months one can make money or not.

Ramesh Damani: Any mid-cap, small-cap ideas?

Raamdeo Agrawal: One idea, a mid-cap called Dena Bank. A Rs 1,000-crore bank, it dominates half of Gujarat, about Rs 6-7 EPS this year, Rs 10-12 earning next year. The bank's book value is going to be Rs 50 next year, and there is no bank stock today, which you can get below price-to-book-value of 1.

Ramesh Damani: Madhu, last year you whispered 'real estate' in our ears. What are the themes or sectors and what are the magic words you would whisper today?

Madhu Kela: I would like to mention the contract research and manufacturing theme out of India. If you analyse this space, and as Raamdeo said, that now we're discussing post-patent, so people are not scared to venture into whether it is outsourcing or contract manufacturing in this space.

Multinational companies annually spend something like $45 billion on research and another $45 billion is spent on manufacturing of pharmaceutical products. So, this is one very interesting opportunity, which over the next three to five years will pan out very well for India.

Ramesh Damani: Madhu you've also been invested in media companies. Can you shed some light on the prospects for the media group?

Madhu Kela: In the media business the biggest thing that will work in its favour is the entry barrier, which is humongous across the board. Like in newspapers, you only have 80 per cent of the advertisements in the top newspaper, 15 per cent in the second one and the remaining 5 per cent in the next twenty. The second thing is, when convergence really happens, content will be the true king.

Ramesh Damani:...and the low advertisement rates in India have to go up over a period of time, so that represents the opportunity on the balance sheet side. Anoop, give us some ideas. Mid-cap space is something, which the retail investor is always enthusiastic about.

Anoop Bhaskar: There are two broad ideas I would like to share. We produce roughly around 220-odd million tonne of food grain, which we have to take it to around 340-350 million tonne in the next five-seven years, because of our population.

Plus, if you have more income, you're going to consume better than in the past. And in the last seven years there has been no greenfield project which has been set up for fertilisers because of government policies, constraints of finance etc.

India buys around 30 per cent of the world market of urea. And we are paying around $260 per tonne to buy it from the market. If we were to produce it in India at whatever cost of gas we get, it would cost us around $180-190.

Another idea is lubricants, a market in which the pricing is not controlled by the government and where the government companies are as ready as the private sector to raise prices. For the last 12 months, the prices of lubricants have moved up by almost 37 per cent. And this is one segment when over the next two-three years, lube oil refineries around Asia are going to double their capacities.

Therefore, the price of lube oil could actually move totally opposite to that of crude oil. Because there would be so much of supply and the pricing of the final product is not controlled by the government.

These are companies, which have some brands. If they are able to keep a part of the fall in lube oil prices, then the jump in profits of these companies would be very high.

Ramesh Damani: Prashant, you won't bet on stocks but tell us some themes at least.

Prashant Jain: I think auto components. If India is to become an automobile hub, look for companies in the auto-ancillary space, which bring scale, the opportunity can be very large.

And there are signs that India is likely to emerge as auto ancillary hub. And these oil companies - I've been wrong last year, but they are available at a fraction of the replacement cost, and now government intention is that at least the oil bonds will...

Ramesh Damani:...make up for the losses.

Prashant Jain: Yes. So the downside becomes limited. They are available at book values, and the book values are fraction of the replacement costs. So, I think there's some value. If oil prices fall, the upside could be very fast and very significant. But clearly there is no momentum and it is an out of favour sector, so one has to be patient. They also have good earnings yields.

Ramesh Damani: Let's hear the stock picks from the best stock-picker in India. Rakesh, you're going to share your picks, so please, we're breathless.

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala: I agree with Raamdeo, that Tata Steel could be an extremely good long term investment over a three-five year horizon. The steel industry has changed.

The approach to the steel industry has changed from one of government approach to one of profit. Second, when people say that Tata Steel's acquisition of Corus is a bull market excess, what bull market is Tata Steel in when it is valued at 6 times earnings, and pre-tax 5 times?

Tata Steel will make iron ore intensive products and sell it to Corus. Plus, Corus can add 4 million tonne finishing capacity without much investment, which can be utilised with the same labour force. Tata Steel itself is going from 10 million to 12 million tonne.

Mr Muthuraman has said that the combined EBITDA margin will be 25-30 per cent. If you look at Rs 100,000 crore (Rs 1000 billion) of sales, at 25 per cent EBITDA margin, it's Rs 25,000 crore (Rs 250 billion). Tata Steel's equity is not going to exceed Rs 750 crore (Rs 7.5 billion), even after an issue. And then you look at it, they are financing it perfectly.

Tata Steel has $1 billion cash, $2 billion equity will come - they put that into an SPV. That SPV will borrow $1 billion, which may have recourse to Tata Steel and that money will be invested in Corus. Corus will take debt, which will not have any recourse to Tata Steel. So, Tata Steel is not really risking anything except that $1 billion, which is 6-7 month cash flow for the company. And if they succeed at what they're saying, a 750 crore equity can produce Rs 25,000 crore EBITDA.

My second investment is Titan. It's a very expensive stock, but there are certain companies, which will produce dominance, and when they will be in their youth, they will produce huge cash flows. So I believe Titan can be one such company. It's for a patient investor and investing in it is fraught with risk.

The third stock is Bilcare, and again this is for a patient investor for three-five years. If Bilcare is successful in doing what it has set out to do, it will be among the top companies of the world in the pharmaceutical package. It will have a fully diluted equity of about Rs 21 crore (Rs 210 million) and this year it will earn about 50 crore (Rs 500 million).

It's not cheap at about 20 times its earnings. It has invested in facilities in Singapore, it has gone into the clinical trials business. Both will take time to mature. But if they do well, this stock will give mind-boggling returns. And with this, I will conclude by saying that I'm feeling very bullish after this discussion.

Ramesh Damani: There's a very nice philosopher, who's an existentialist - Albert Camus and he wrote a very nice thing, which is a great way to conclude this discussion.

He said you're forgiven for your happiness and success only if you generously consent to share them. I want to thank my panelists by sharing the joy and wisdom of investing generously with all of us today.

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If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm.

Posted By: maneeshmittal
Date Posted: 16/Jul/2007 at 3:14pm

Does any one know why the Prices of Praj Ind is going down ???

Posted By: ndzapak
Date Posted: 16/Jul/2007 at 4:18pm

Good ! Think of it as a buying opportunity , this comany has a long way to go

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the Equitydesk is the best

Posted By: kg
Date Posted: 22/Jul/2007 at 9:05pm

Praj industries is ex-bonus hence down ...

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Lets rock

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 23/Jul/2007 at 9:16am

Bhaiyya is holding 2.86% stake in this. Any feedback from our Amdavadi friends on how this brand is doing. Once it was very popular (late 80s/early 90s. (They used to have an outlet at a very scenic & strategic location called Law Garden! Yummy!!!....us121...please respond)

Vadilal expanding food processing capacities

Food processing and ice-cream major Vadilal Industries Ltd is expanding its capacities and is in talks with leading retailers, including Reliance, to supply frozen food in a big way at their outlets across the country.

The company, making exclusively vegetarian frozen and processed food, exported its 55 products worth Rs 25 crore last fiscal mainly to the US, Europe, the Gulf, Australia and New Zealand, which is projected to increase to Rs 40 crore this year. “We are focusing mainly on food processing and talking to seven or eight supermarket chains, including Reliance and Big Bazaar, for bulk supply through their outlets to the tune of Rs 15 crore in the next 2 years,” Mr Rajesh Gandhi, Managing Director, told Business Line.

Vadilal’s food processing plant at Dharampur in Gujarat currently manufactures 30 varieties of frozen and preserved vegetables like pea, 15 varieties of ready-to-serve curried vegetables like palak paneer and dal makhani and 10 varieties of frozen fruits. Set up in 1990, the plant’s ongoing expansion project, to be completed by December 2007, would increase its capacity from the existing 8,000 tonnes to about 13,000 tonnes per annum, he added.

The company, whose mainstay has been ice-cream, is also expanding its capacities at its Bareili (Uttar Pradesh) and Pundra (Gujarat) plants at a cost of Rs 15 crore. Its first phase of expansion will be complete in two months and the second phase will be taken up by March next year at an investment of another Rs 10 crore. This would increase its production capacity from the current 1.50 lakh litres to 2.50 lakh litres per day, Mr Gandhi said.

Besides, Vadilal is planning to expand its ice-cream parlour chain, Happiness, from the existing 100 outlets to 250 across the country in the next three years.

The turnover of the Group is expected to go up from Rs 200 year in 2006-07 to Rs 300 crore in the next two years.

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2007/07/24/stories/2007072451571100.htm - news from HBL

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 23/Jul/2007 at 10:09am

The turnover of the Group is expected to go up from Rs 200 year in 2006-07 to Rs 300 crore in the next two years. ____________________________________________________________

This does not sound too encouraging!

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 23/Jul/2007 at 10:18am

50 p.c. jump in 2 years' time is not encouraging in this industry? Am I missing something here?Apparently, its quite decent although, may not be roof-blowing yet given its industry characterisitc, isnt it quite decent?

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 23/Jul/2007 at 10:50am

See the company is so small smaller companies should grow at more then that rate and can anyone compete with the leaders like ITC in the foods biz.Growth should have been more then that because food is not a operating leverage game where incremenmtal revenues go directly to bottomline so in 2 yrs if profits grow by say 60% then we are looking at an opportunity that isn't too exciting.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 23/Jul/2007 at 11:07am

valid point.....

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 1:22pm

RJ has massively reduced his position in PRAJ. From 1.8 crore shares (after bonus) he now holds close to 75 lac shares only.Seems that he is getting out. Volumes have been very high in this counter also.

So Guys just check up on Praj before holding/buying.

Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 1:35pm

Basantjee,

Is he getting out or rebalancing his portfolio ? (I think he is deploying money in unlisted companies and recently he increased his exposure in Titan and ATFL (Praj had his highest weightage in the portfolio so far ). He also has reduced his stake in Crisil long time back and still Crisil has outperformed after that

It is really difficult to take a call on the movements of the people like RJ and Prof (They have also made mistakes in several instances!!)

Pls advise your views for long term investors (as I am quite reluctant to reduce on this as there is still some steam left as per me!!)

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India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com

Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 1:39pm

I am quite reluctant to reduce on this as there is still some steam left as per me!!

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Here, I see 2 bull fighting. Video pls....

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Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.

Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 1:46pm

Hey Hey,

Vipuljee,that was a good one !!

I am very very small (.0000000000001 %) (I still have to work !!) but you are inspiring me to become a bull one day and fight

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India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com

Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 2:36pm

pl visit the praj ethanol thread for more clarification before making any hasty descions

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=570&PN=12 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=570&PN=12

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 29/Jul/2007 at 4:25pm

Hi guys, I am shankar and am new to this forum. I must thank Basant for so kindaly extending an invitation for me to join TED. I really like the way y'all assiduously discuss RJ and his picks. Most of the online Indian stock forums are focused on only price targets and trading calls. I really love the way value and not price is kept paramount over here.

A word on Vadilal though, it had about 2 years back, had some problem with botulinum bacteria found in its Quick Treat brand in US and Canada. Does anybody have any updates on this. Is Vadilal still allowed to sell its brand internationally?

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When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 29/Jul/2007 at 6:41pm

Thank you for your kind words.

Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 29/Jul/2007 at 10:15am

well said.mr.rj holds karur vysya bank.it makes sense for him to hold on to it, as he bought it when it was a midcap. it does not make sense to me.for ex- take sail. it was trading at 8rs whn the steel industry was in a downturn.when you bought it then, it is now trading at 150.it makes sense to hold it, as it is a multibagger. for a new investor, who enters 150 he can probably get 300 in three years. but for a person who bought it at 8rs,every increase of 8rs, the stock increases by1 time.

i rest my case.

Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: 30/Jul/2007 at 3:36pm

BASANTJEE,

I ALWAYS COULD USE YOUR ADVICE. TWO STOCKS THAT LEAP OUT OF THE PORTFOLIO OF RJ ARE PRAJIND AND PANTALOON IND.I HAVE PICKED BOTH BECAUSE THEY ARE MIDCAPS AND HAVE A MARKET CAP OF 6000CRS. THOUGH I AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL WHETHER THEY CAN REACH A MARKETCAP OF 100,000CRS IN 4-5 YEARS. IT MAY TAKE A YEAR MORE OR SO. PRAJ HAS GIVEN A RETURNS 0F 224% FOR 5 YEARS CONSISTENTLY.HOWEVER, IT IS SURPRISING THAT SINCE FEB, IT HAS ACTUALLY GONE UP FROM 190 TO 220, A VERY SLOW GROWTH.THEN THERE CAME A BONUS, AND THE STOCK FELL.

HOWEVER, I WAS PERPLEXED AS TO WHY RJ IS HOLDING HINDUSTAN OIL EXP AND ZENOTECH LABS.I DO NOT SEE ANY FUTURE FOR HINDUSTAN OIL EXP.I THINK RELIANCE AND RNRL CAN MAKE DISCOVERIES OF HYDROCARBONS.

SINCE, RJ HAS LOTS OF MONEY, HE CAN ACTUALLY THROW THE MONEY ON VERY VOLATILE, SMALLCAP STOCKS. WHAT IF ONE HITS THE JACKPOT,RJ WILL BE MANY TIMES RICHER.I ONLY REALISED THAT I CANNOT TAKE SUCH RISKS WITH MY LIMITED CAPITAL.

THUS, I SETTLED FOR RNRL.I ACTUALLY INVESTED IN SOUTHERN ONLINE BIOTECHNOLOGIES BECAUSE IT IS A SMALLCAP CO, AND THUS, CAN BE A MULTIBAGGER.

I HAVE ALSO SHARES IN DIVIS LAB,UNITECH AND ANSAL INFRA.

I ALSO WISHED TO GO INTO FUTURES AND OPTIONS, BUT WITH MY LIMITED KNOWLEDGE, I HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA.

Posted By: ganiga
Date Posted: 30/Jul/2007 at 5:29pm

RJ must be entering or increasing his stake in some stocks , could be in Bilcare,Tisco or Titan his all time favorite stocks.

Basantji - Does RJ still hold stake in Innovasynth Technologies, I am told that he is one of the director.

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Jul/2007 at 5:43pm

No idea on this.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: ndzapak
Date Posted: 30/Jul/2007 at 5:50pm

Its a subsidiary of listed entity Futura Polyster

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the Equitydesk is the best

Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 30/Jul/2007 at 11:31am

As per the prospectus of the latest of RJ private equity companies that got listed on the stock exchange, i.e., Prime Focus, RJ is still a shareholder in Innovasynth. He sold out on his Futura holding. Innovasynth is the perfect example of a future spinoff wherein there is a profitable company inside a dud. Futura is a dud, and Innovasynth is the hidden oasis. I have checked Innovasynth and its business. It is gorgeous in terms of future opportunity alone. The fundamentals are difficult to get because, being an unlisted company, they have no obligation to reveal their numbers.

One can buy Futura in the hope that they may give out Innovasynth shares eventually when they spin off Innovasynth. Also, a better and more viable option would be to wait for Innovasynth to get listed in the stock exchanges and then buy some after the fundamentals become more clearer.

I remember Peter Lynch mentioning how spinoffs can be a big opportunity. In particular, I remember the example of how he made a pile of money on Toys R' US that was spun off from a lame dog company (I forget the name of the diseased parent).

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When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett

Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 31/Jul/2007 at 5:53am

could yu pl enlighten us as to what innovasynth does

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 01/Aug/2007 at 9:06am

As per their website, Innovasynth is in to knowledge based R & D services' for the last 5 years, which include:

       -Contract R & D
       -Custom Synthesis
       -Contract Manufacture

similar to companies like Matrix and Bilcare, Innovasynth seems to be the handmaiden for the pharma industry. It is of note that these suppliers to the pharma industry have outshone the manufacturers in the pharma industry with respect to earnings and earnings growth. Cases in point are Matrix Labs, Vimta, Divis, and Bilcare.

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When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett

Posted By: asad_health
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 2:40pm

Basanji,

I request you to post other macro investors portfolio like Nemish Shah etc along with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Shivanand Mankekar. Thanks in advance.

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Experience: The name men give to their mistakes.

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 3:29pm

Will see if I can get access to that - legally.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: tyler_durden
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 4:05pm

How do you get access to these things basant ji?

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If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm.

Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 4:23pm

Internet, BSE,friends etc.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in

Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 4:39pm

I hear magic incantations, Hari Puttar style, sometimes help too.

Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 5:07pm

with all this activity in oil , GAS, RIGS and power some of this should rub into a co called punj lloyd although valuations need to be checked before making an investment call and everything that rj buys doesNOT turn to gold

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 5:13pm

SmartCat

You are yourself a magician of Words! Nice vocabulary, I must say!

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: shankar
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 6:48pm

Hi Tigershark;

I have no doubt in my mind that Punj Lloyd will be a great stock. The activity in oil and gas though also has another indirect beneificiary; a stock that is also in RJ's portfolio and goes by the name of Alphageo. Alphageo does not have big rigs and other inventory to maintain. Its biggest asset is the technology it has and the enablers of that technology i.e., the geophyscisists who are esteemed employees of Alphageo.

It costs quite a deal of money to dig a hole in the earth to look for oil. Companies would have already paid quite a deal of money to acquire the rights to dig in the oil block auction. They need to be sure that the place they are digging into has high probability of producing oil. For this reason, they enlist the services of companies like Alphageo who mainly conduct 2D and 3D surveys looking for oil in the bowels of the earth.

Whether or not the companies find oil, they have to pay Alphageo anyway for the services they have rendered. Here is the Gold Rush scenario that comes into play. Long years ago in the USA, people went to the west coast to try and look for gold. A few of them struck gold and became rich, but the vast majority did not. On the other hand, people who sold them picks and shovels became millionaries. Chief among them was Levi Strauss who sold them heavy-duty denim apparel for the back breaking work entailed in digging for gold.

Here is where a company like Alphageo looks such a juicy bet. I must confess I do have a holding in this company. I was lucky to grab it at 120 per share. The company could surprise with its earnings on the upside in the next few years. This is mainly because there is going to be a huge drive by the government as well as the private sector to find oil in India. They know it is there, but they don't know where. Alphageo could point them to where the oil is and simply pocket the commisions for the services rendered. No expensive machinery to maintain as inventory, no overheads, just simple surveying.

Please let me know your views Tigershark and also whether my analysis sounds feasible or ridiculous.

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When the tide runs out, you can see who has been swimming naked - Warren Buffett

Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 9:50pm

yes yu do make sense but i have only one question cant this business be done by other cos based in the usa, middle east, australia, russia just send their geophysicist across to india also what role does a sattelite mapping play so does this co have very strong entry barriers or can the ambanis take the services of the best geophysicicts in the world?

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 10:35pm

Also when you are a company providing consultancy like this, the success rate matters a lot. Someone will pay more for a company that has 70% success rate in striking oil, than pay a company less which has 40% success rate for finding oil..

What is the success rate of Alphageo in finding oil and who are its customers ?

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Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch

Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 11:17pm

Excellent points tigershark and Vivek.

Posted By: ndzapak
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 11:25pm

Also as far as my understanding goes Alphageo is a service provider

who provides these services of 2D & 3D seismic surveys. Ultimately

it is the E & P company which decides where to drill based on their

interpretation of these surveys. Do correct me if i am wrong.

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the Equitydesk is the best

Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 5:37am

under the NELP SCHEME new blocks are coming up for discovery in dec, activity in this area is going to be huge

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

Posted By: RITESH KAMANI
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2007 at 5:49pm

SIR,CAN U PLS UPDATE US WITH THE LATEST(JUNE QUARTER)SHARE HOLDING PATTERN.

Posted By: kattur
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2007 at 11:02pm

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala Portfolio as on 30th June'07 filed with stock exchanges:

No	Company Name	% stake
1	Aptech	18.4
2	Viceroy Hotels	12.7
3	Titan Inds.	9.2
4	Geojit Fin. Ser.	8.6
5	Praj Inds.	8.2
6	CRISIL	7.6
7	Prime Focus	6.9
8	Agro Tech Foods	6.3
9	Nag. Constructn.	6.1
10	Karur Vysya Bank	4.8
11	Mid-Day Multimed	4.4
12	Geometric Soft.	4.0
13	Hind.Oil Explor.	3.9
14	Lupin	3.5
15	Vadilal Inds.	2.9
16	Provogue (India)	2.5
17	Garware-Wall Rop	2.4
18	Bhushan Steel	2.4
19	Punj Lloyd	1.9
20	Pantaloon Retail	1.6

Note: The above portfolio is for companies that have filed their June'07 shareholdings till date.

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kattur

Posted By: kg
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2007 at 12:02pm

cool kattur thanks for posting this ....we have a new entrant in his portfolio .. Garware wall ropes ...i checked out ...he probably got it from geojit.....geojit pms was probably holding it for him....is he using this medium also ...how many more to discover ....

no idea abt this stock but wd try to learn more in the next couple of days ...

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Lets rock

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2007 at 12:18pm

Garware Wall Ropes: I recall that it was discussed by Reetesh jee during last year on this forum.

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2007 at 5:21am

i am not sure if that is the right portfolio with the right percentages basant pl check it BILCARE appears missing, viceroy cant be 12%,and punj lloyd was 5.3% just last qrt,

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

Posted By: kg
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2007 at 10:49am

hi .

checked for viceroy his holding is 11.73% (37.5 L shares - no change ) and Punj is 1.93% (50.4 L - no change). Bilcare shareholding pattern is not available for JQ and hence probably not updated.

and basantji ..u were absolutely right he sold some nagarjuna construction last qtr ..10 L shares...

Dont kno for sure but there is something exciting happening in hyderabad which seems to be exciting RJ a lot of the companies in which he has invested hail from AP ...

a) nagarjuna b) alphageo c) In his pvt holding he has purchased some land for development ....

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Lets rock

Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2007 at 11:24am

the percentage you seem to be mentioning is the companys percentage not his portfolios percentage all this long ted is showing his portfolio % for eg punj lloyd forms 5.3% of his portfolio and viceroy is less than 2% of his portfolio.he is equally exited on pune based cos.

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things

Posted By: kg
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2007 at 11:36am

Ok i stand corrected..the % indicated by me are the % of his holdings in those companies and only the declared ones :)

Pune ...apart from praj can u pl indicate....

Can we establish a trend ...Tier II cities ...

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Lets rock

Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2007 at 11:38am

Bilcare, Garware Wall Ropes

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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards

Posted By: kg
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2007 at 1:33pm

how do i post an excel sheet here ...have compiled the movement of shares over the a few quarters..

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Lets rock

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