Nikhil's Portfolio
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Portfolio Check Up
Forum Discription: Members may put forward their portfolios dor comments from other members. The final call will obviously be taken by the investor himself.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=764
Printed Date: 20/May/2024 at 1:28am
Topic: Nikhil's Portfolio
Posted By: nikhil090
Subject: Nikhil's Portfolio
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 10:16pm
|
Hi guys,
Here is my portfolio. Request your comments.
thanks.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Replies:
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 10:31pm
|
Just out of curiosiy Nikhil ji, what is your expected rate of return for next 3 years out of this portfolio. If 35-40%, then looks okay to me.
Good Luck. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 10:34pm
|
I think almost 80% of the stocks are a aggressively discussed here. Very well balanced though I would like to get it down to 10 stocks or at most 15. The process is easier if you just eliminate the less then 3% holding companies and consolidate them into the others. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 10:49pm
| Actually this is my father's portfolio which i am managing. I have promised him double the money in less than 3 years (when he retires). That is why the number of stocks are a little more and it is a mix between Midcap and largecaps. I may reduce 1-2 more (PNB etc) but some others I would like to increase (Educomp, HDFC etc) |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 11:26pm
|
Incidentally, I have gotten out of Educomp completely. Nothing wrong in Educomp(till now), but just trying to focus my energies onto 6-7 of stocks till 2011.
Many people, including Basant sir keep mentioning that 10 lakhs compounded at 30% over 20 years leads to crores of rupees. But I wonder: "Is it easy to comfortable with earning 20% CAGR for 20 years" with a select list of 5-6 stocks. There must be a time when a shift of sectors(after say 5 years) would be needed for the next 5 years. What's your view Basant sir?
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 11:55pm
| what did u do with the funds ..did u reinvest in something ...btw there was a huge buy on TV18 on thursday..looks liek the crowd is focussing on Media for a while |
Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 12:36pm
|
I have always had a question....Is it possible to get returns of 25% over 25 yrs of span? ------------- Warm Regards, Kaushal |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 1:22am
| it is very much possible but not very easy ...if one can achieve that..consider him agenious with lot of luck |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 4:00am
I shall post the answer to that in my portolio page Prashant ji, as I dont want to take up space on someone else's page.
Hope thats ok. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 21/Jul/2007 at 12:37pm
Revised portfolio as of today: Request any comments. Thanks.
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 21/Jul/2007 at 12:47pm
|
Nikhil jee
Pardon for diversion of topic: Are you keeping track of demerger story of DCHL's 100% WOS Odessey India which is into Retail sector?
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 21/Jul/2007 at 12:51pm
|
Kulmanjee,
I understood earlier that the demerger or IPO will happenin 2007-08. However, have still not heard of any news on this one, after some CLSA reports citing the same.. No new update with me, as of now.
|
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 22/Jul/2007 at 8:02pm
|
Solid portfolio & well diversified except TCS & Satyam as the party is over in these stocks when considered from returns point of view.. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 23/Jul/2007 at 6:54pm
|
Nikhiljee,
Your portfolio and my portfolio are almost similar (we r in the same boat !!) except TCS,Satyam and Deccan, I sold Prime foucs recently.
Well Deveshjee, as you said Party is really over for IT unless some contrarian people give the support but as far as PE and returns of 40% are concerned ,just forget it !! ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 23/Jul/2007 at 7:31pm
|
Sandeep ji, I think I mentioned it earlier too. Even in IT, it would be a stock-specific story. TCS knows how to milk the last drop of milk from its cows. Maintaining 30% growth would be a bit difficult for ssometime, but TCS will overtime come back to this return, at least for the next 3 years.
Why I say this is because the addressable market for the likes of TCS is too big and look how it outshone others in the latest results. So, it's all a stock/company-specific story. Rest, let time tell its own tale. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 23/Jul/2007 at 7:44pm
|
Omjee,
That was my personal opinion and I am not wizard in the market but just a slow learner...
I agree with you that TCS is a stock/company-specific story
Well lets hope that TCS will do well , it certainly gave best results amongst the lot , my only concern is rupee is in the bull run and the employee retention and talent availability are the key challenges faced by IT, though the market size is very big.
The short term outlook is not favourable but as you know for long term investors no worries !! howsoever I still feel 40% growth is difficult due to higher base.
I read this article below after I posted the above message.
http://www.rediff.com/money/2007/jul/23quit.htm - http://www.rediff.com/money/2007/jul/23quit.htm ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 23/Jul/2007 at 11:49pm
|
You are right to an extent. 40% growth may not be a good idea. 30% is a better idea to keep for companies like INFY and TCS. TCS may have some sweet news coming up(non-currency related), possibly within a fortnight from now.No confirmations for now though. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 23/Jul/2007 at 1:21am
Is it sweet news (Eg: billion dollar deal) or shocking news (Eg: acquisition of something like CapGemini)?
What kind of cash/cash equivalents is TCS sitting on? Is it comparable to that of Infy?
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 23/Jul/2007 at 1:52am
|
No acquisition deal as far as I know. It's all tentative so let TCS confirm it, rather than me speculate it. Maybe fortnight could turn out to be a few months, that is why I am saying "let's wait and watch what actually turns up". ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 12:51pm
|
many changes in the portfolio in the last one year.. During this correction phase i have added some hdfc bank/axis bank/voltas/pantaloon/L&T/ hawkins cooker - Did let go of network 18,dish tv, hdfc (earlier), bharti etc.
Will post the updated portfolio soon..
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 2:52pm
|
Always nice to hear from you. What did you make out of Prime Focus? ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 4:36pm
|
Basantjee, Thanks for your kind words.. I have been following TED very closely but learning more than giving back.. Will try to reverse that, with my limited understanding.
I am still extremely bullish on prime focus. I consider it to be the proxy play on entertainment industry. Somehow I feel that direct plays are riskier than indirect plays which provide services. You can take real state vs banks/air conditioning etc. Same way, in bollywood whether or not the movie is a hit, the graphics provider will make money.
Prime focus have done some very interesting acquisitions. with that it is more global than local now. The whole thing is about integration and leveraging of those subsidiaries. If they manage it well, the stock can go many places. if not, it will remain 10-15% grower..
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 4:52pm
|
Indirect plays see lesser competition compared to the direct ones also. can Prime Focus grow at 50% CAGR also what is the Fy09 EPS and RoE if you can indicate on that thread it would be great.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 5:27pm
| They have done many acquisitions in the last 2 years. so the effort from mgmt is in integration. I am waiting for annual report to see the reports and work out the numbers. will post when available. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2008 at 8:39pm
|
I have 2 portfolio's. The one below I try to manage for my father,who is nearing retirement now. Though i have not been able to do much good on his portfolio till now, I hope things will work out well in next 1-2 years.
Look forward to comments..
I will post my other portfolio also, which is for me. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2008 at 9:25pm
|
looks quite robust and diversified except that it has a longish tail. I would have putr Voltas abit up the order and moved away from the tech large caps which at best have become market performers over the longer term.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2008 at 9:55pm
|
In this correction, i have not almost not added or removed any stocks. the allocation has changed because of the changes in price. My father has a sentimental attachment to IPO stocks - TCS , Power grid and also Satyam which is there for last 10 years.
Any feedback on Deccan Chronicle - It is probably the cheapest print media stock available but there are concerns on competition, corporate governance and receivables etc.
Also any idea of whether Yes should be converted to Kotak? Both have fallen almost similar amount but Kotak has more money to grow its bank business while YES may be a susceptible to equity markets for fund raising.
I am asking for some more money from my father to put in stocks. Which of these can I add - I was thinking about Voltas, HDFC bank, HDFC (want to come back again in this), PUnj lloyd and reliance..
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2008 at 10:06pm
|
All those new thoughts are good especially in view of the fal in price. One good thing about falling stock prices is that it takes down everything so people have time to switch from weak businesses to the good ones.
Kotak is better then yes and HJDFc Bank is better then both. That is how I would see the banking stocks.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2008 at 10:07pm
|
I am also going through a conundrum of value Vs growth investing.. Should I buy a company only for dividends (Ultramarine, ) or reasonable dividends with reasonable growth (hawkins, castrol, allahabad bank etc) or look at agressive growth (low div but other strong factors - PRIL, TITAN, HDFC etc)
Here my definition of dividend can be used for very strong balance sheet also.
have not been able to decide and i think there are no clear answers also..
|
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2008 at 11:20pm
Sorry for putting my point here, as the question has been addressed to Basant Sir, but somehow I believe one needs a proper mix of the two kind of stocks you mentioned. Growth gets you the upside but at the same time blows off your portfolio as well. Value protects your portfolio but can be pretty unexciting.
Value investing especially if its based on dividends and book-value takes you into a different realm of illiquid stocks. One more issue with high yielders is that it makes selling very difficult. Thats because they never look expensive while they are on the way up and while they are on the way down, they start appearing very cheap. A better safeguard in case you go for dividend strategy, is to diversify across a few stocks.
Now, I very well know that during such periods as the current one, one shall start consolidating rather than diversifying, but then different horses have to be played differently.... So with high yielders, the trick is not to get saddled with a very stocks which may betray on dividends, but to span the field with a few stocks so that occasional betrayals can be ignored.
With all the four dividend names you have mentioned, i hold 3 of them and also like hawkins as a stock as well. My favorite in that list will be a Castrol, simply for its brand value.....on every motorable road you go, you find a castrol board after every 5 kilometres....... ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2008 at 11:51pm
|
Thanks for your thoughts and sharing vivek.
The problem is that as a person do you see the possibility to ride both the horses? Because I feel there is inherent divergence in the 2 styles (unless the growth stock falls so much that it becomes value).
The argument for growth investing is - moat, opportunity, growth and then cashflows, earnings etc while in value investing you are looking at bv, div, cashflows etc etc and may not be so much worried about the scale of opportunity etc.
To me, value investing will give you more assured returns with comfort while growth investing is more risky but rewards are higher.
I read about castrol only after your mentioning the name. It also seems good at almost 6% div yield with improving performance despite rising crude.. (Probably the full effects of oil rise are not captured till Q1. May be Q2 will give better picture.)
Whether castrol or punj lloyd is the question??
|
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2008 at 12:13pm
|
Well, I believe its quite possible. I sit with an Opto ( not a value stock, by strict value parameters) and a Great eastern Shipping on one hand, and a castrol and an ultramarine on the other hand.
See, the first thing in this chase of investment returns, is that we have to admit that we dont know how the future will shore up ( in terms of investment returns). Bubble made a very good point in one of the posts, when he said sometimes growth does , sometimes valaue and sometimes pure yields. I will give you an example from my book.....I did wonderfully well in 2003-2005, but then a realisation dawned on me that I should become more focussed on dividends more than anything else. Somehow, I didnt want to lose the wonderful returns I had made, so I started to go for Ultramarines, BASFs, Fosecos, Century enkas of the world. And as a result of which I started to lag until upto late 2007, where all of a sudden i started to make money through my fertiliser and steel and shipping stocks. I did quite a hectic trading in late 2007 and early 2008, sold out my fertiliser stocks and many others, and made them go into glaxos, goodyears, voiths and castrols of the world.
It all boils down to your personal fund management style. I have been very lucky as far my family and relative circle is concerned, where I can get valuable feedback so very easily. One of my relatives( grandfather actually through a relation) told me a thing very early when I was at my pinnacle in 2006, that dividend is the only true income from stocks and continuous effort must be deicated to improve that income. that thing struck me so tremendously that i started following this approach all the more aggressively.
Stocks is a very easy game, at least not as difficult as people make out to be. Its said, that in our family even a class 4 boy can pick stocks........
Apologies for stretching my story so long, but just wanted to share a few things with you....... ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 13/Jul/2008 at 10:11am
Sorry for this irrelevant message: but....a popular TV serial is a grade behind, they talk about Class 5.  ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2009 at 9:38pm
|
Almost not added/deleted any stocks in the portfolio. HOlding all of them. Added some Axis, Pantaloon, ENIL and Punj (very small quantity).
HOwever somethings are clearer for me now.
1. I will be more comfortable with reasonable diversification (15-25 stocks in the portfolio). Concentration is not for me, not atleast as of now. Since I would be reasonably diversified, I hope not to lose significant money in any "failed" company which I may pick.
2. I will be interested in both value+Growth and my motive is to make money without losing it - I will not be carried by only long term story (which happens after 5-10 years), technicalities etc because there are far too many variables which I cannot put my finger on - most importantly being management integrity and vision - If I cannot see any returns for 1-3 years, then the stock is not for me.
3. Coming from point 2 is the fact that I would try to invest in business which is easier for me to understand and where the variable affecting the company can be identified/understood
4. I will not mind going into companies which do not have exceptional corp gov if the risk/reward ratio is favourable - However these companies would be only for trade (short or long)
5. Valuations become important for buying the company - I think that a fair company at attractive prices is better than good company at bad price.
6. I recognise that I am neither Warren Buffet or RJ or Samir arora - So while reading them is fine, I am not going to dream to become another one like them.
My last 5 years of equity investing has been a disaster to say the least - My small investment is property is now worth more than my big investment in stock market. I am still not writing off my equity investments but I will be diverstifying from stock market also into property.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2009 at 7:11am
|
Very candid. Have you lost on your equity invetsments in the past 5 years or that comparision is just on relative side. Also you could be making money in property on leverage or is it on outright buy? What do you make of DIVIS? Since you are from that industry?
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2009 at 7:37pm
I would like to say something here:
1.Develop a scheme in your head about why you are buying stuff. a single stock doesnt serve all the purpose. So, chase a stock if its satisfying a particular objective.
2.That objective should be in perfect conjunction with your financial planning. Its said, the basic future need should be planned with fixed income generating assets but then the icing on the cake can be had only with equities. So, when you plan for a house, use bonds to make you reach there, but its equities which can fetch you a penthouse/bungalow. But never plan to buy an apartment with equities.
3.Understand the pitfalls of equities investing. Its not for everyone. I know of many studs who tried to mimic the best of gurus and are now saying tauba tauba to equities.
4.Always beware of those smart people who advise that bonds/ fixed income products are just to beat inflation. Just like with any other asset class, you have got to time it correct, thats all.
5.Always understand the reason behind an advice being offered. Intentions matter and they matter a lot.
6.Lastly, always try to understand that invisible factor called luck/destiny/God's grace. Some people, even with best of advisors, go on faltering and faltering. You are free to assume that I am one of those fools who believe in luck etc., but then this is what my experience with other people has taught me.
I would be glad if you can share something back in return, be it a suggestion or a criticism..... ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: rakeshmehta48
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2009 at 8:19pm
|
Vivek,
You have asked from Nikhil but I feel like saying something:
At your age, your foresightedness, analytical abilities and intelligence level is par excellence and you will go great heights by the time you reach my age.
Even though you are bit short tempered and harsh, some times.(NO PUN INTENDED. KINDLY TAKE IT IN POSITIVE MANNER) ------------- Fund Management is Most Important |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2009 at 11:05pm
Basantjee,
I may not have lost money in equity which was invested 4-5 years back. But whatever invested in the last 3 years is in loss right now. the money is property is made because ofthe appreciation,whether leverage or outright. Infact I always consider it as outright for my calculation purpose.
DIVIS - The model is robust enough -without lot of risks of pharma market - They are basically in API's (reasonably commodity business especially for DIVIS and the products that they are in) and Custom mfg (more lucrative, long term contracts with higher margins from MNC's). Custom mfg is the key to the profits and growth in the business. I think they will be able to maintain this business. The scale of opportunity is reasonably big so they can grow at good rates. However watch out always for their new contract mfg business wins with innovator companies. that is crucial.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2009 at 7:39am
|
Have you thought of buying Divis anytime? Does it offer a 50% CAGR foir the next 3-4 years?
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2009 at 8:01am
| Not sure !!! Divis does not disclose much to small investors especially of their big wins and potential in the future. so you are not sure if they will be able to maintain this growth rate in future. Divi's major growth has come in the last 2 years and continuing but I am not sure if this is sustainable. I will check and see if this is interesting and offers potential though it is not trading cheap... |
Posted By: karthikr80
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2009 at 8:40am
|
Any comparisons between Sun Pharma and Divi's in terms of business potential, profit sustainability, management. I am planning to get into Sun Pharma ------------- karthik |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2009 at 9:24am
Another Andhra Pradesh company but not at all soundly thrashed unlike IVCRL Infra, etc. ------------- |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2009 at 9:27am
That will be good!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 15/Jan/2009 at 9:59pm
|
Thanks vivek for your observations. All of them are very simple but difficult to follow/accept.
What do you think of United breweries ? GSK consumer in contrast?
|
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 20/Jan/2009 at 10:30am
|
I will never go for a Mallya company.......otherwise I would have surely lapped up a decent quantity of Mangalore Chemicals and fertilisers after all the persuasive talk I have got from my dad.
GSK consumer shall be good but I am at a total loss to understand why has GSK Consumer cut back on the dividend. So, I will be watching if they will indeed declare a final dividend. ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 02/Feb/2009 at 10:48pm
| Bought some Hawkins cooker, Shanthi gears and Balmer lawrie |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 19/May/2009 at 7:29pm
|
Have bought some shanthi gears, banco products and rallis india recently.
Reduced little bit of Axis bank and HDFC bank.
|
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 25/May/2009 at 2:20pm
| added some allied digital, FDC and sold some shanthi gears |
Posted By: wiseowl
Date Posted: 31/May/2009 at 2:49pm
|
Which are the other stocks do you own or follow ? Especially, your 2nd portfolio ... ------------- You alone are responsible for your actions. |
Posted By: karthikb
Date Posted: 31/May/2009 at 7:36pm
| Nikhil, Can I know your stratergy in stock pickings. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 31/May/2009 at 8:54pm
|
This is my post 3-4 months back
"Almost not added/deleted any stocks in the portfolio. HOlding all of them. Added some Axis, Pantaloon, ENIL and Punj (very small quantity).
HOwever somethings are clearer for me now.
1. I will be more comfortable with reasonable diversification (15-25 stocks in the portfolio). Concentration is not for me, not atleast as of now. Since I would be reasonably diversified, I hope not to lose significant money in any "failed" company which I may pick.
2. I will be interested in both value+Growth and my motive is to make money without losing it - I will not be carried by only long term story (which happens after 5-10 years), technicalities etc because there are far too many variables which I cannot put my finger on - most importantly being management integrity and vision - If I cannot see any returns for 1-3 years, then the stock is not for me.
3. Coming from point 2 is the fact that I would try to invest in business which is easier for me to understand and where the variable affecting the company can be identified/understood
4. I will not mind going into companies which do not have exceptional corp gov if the risk/reward ratio is favourable - However these companies would be only for trade (short or long)
5. Valuations become important for buying the company - I think that a fair company at attractive prices is better than good company at bad price.
6. I recognise that I am neither Warren Buffet or RJ or Samir arora - So while reading them is fine, I am not going to dream to become another one like them.
My last 5 years of equity investing has been a disaster to say the least - My small investment is property is now worth more than my big investment in stock market. I am still not writing off my equity investments but I will be diverstifying from stock market also into property.
" These are the learnings of the bull market for me - I dont have a greatly defined strategy but whatever I am picking up have to match the criteria No 2 and 5. I am also trying a mixture of everything - Growth, value, dividend, turnaround etc etc: 1. Cheap Valuations OR Management COmpetence - If both comes, it is perfect
2. Try to look for non cyclical industries but again Valuation is a key - Even right now many auto ancillaries are trading cheap
3. Very strong Balance sheet OR Very Big External opportunity - If both comes, it is perfect
4. Ability of the company to manage difficult times and get out of it rather unscathed is very important for me - I want stable companies, irrespective of the situation
5. Reasonable dividend or high future visibility for growth
6. Atleast Avoiding "Infashion" stocks if not buying the "out of favour" stocks
7. Trying to Link anything I am buying with "Indian growth story"
Also these are times of exuberance from March lows so maybe most people are very happy and convinced about their stock picking skills - But to be aware and beware about such things and clinical in analysis is my effort.
Rest as vivek says is matter of Luck/God/divine help.
|
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 31/May/2009 at 9:16pm
|
My portfolio 2 - For me and my daughter
Since I am lazy and not very decisive, the earlier holdings also remained just like that
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 31/May/2009 at 9:35pm
|
Though too many stocks for my liking it does look solid. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 31/May/2009 at 10:00pm
|
i agree too many stocks but I will be moving in and out of them.
I am now beginning to believe that good companies remain good and bad companies remain bad (mostly) - so if in cyclical downturn or any other eventuality if prices correct, then buy and hold for good companies can be good.
I will be increasing some titan, bluestar and opto circuits from growth perspective and rallis india, fdc, allied digital, banco etc from growth + value perspective.
|
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 02/Jun/2009 at 7:18pm
| ADDED some fdc and banco.. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 04/Jun/2009 at 8:34pm
| added some page industries - got out of divyashakti granites in my other portfolio |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 04/Jun/2009 at 11:03pm
|
Reading it just now. Thanks for posting.
While most of us have a high opinion of ourselves ....esp. now that the market has boomed... the fact is most amateur investors don't make any money in the markets........and rarely do they make big money.
Thanks again.
|
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 12/Jun/2009 at 11:28am
|
added some page industries |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 15/Jun/2009 at 5:30pm
| Sold some banco and added hawkins cooker |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 15/Jun/2009 at 11:16pm
|
Kidly throw some light on Banco products.
Page looks quite a decent company and so does hawkins......!!! ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 16/Jun/2009 at 11:10pm
|
Banco product is one of the largest mfr of gasket and radiators to automobile sector. They are OEM for some big companies. Reasonably strong position with sales of around 300 cr - profit of 40 cr - available at PE of 5 FY09 trailing. Div of 140% expected to be maintained (yield around 5% right now) Promoters seem reasonably savvy - Managed the downturn reasonably well - the profit for FY09 is around 39 cr as compared to 43 cr for FY08.
- only 25 cr debt, ev around 200-210 cr. Good return ratios with ROE more than 20%
So little downside risk on the company in my view - dont know when it will move but hopefully should move. Also dont know whether it is the best investment but seems reasonable.
|
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 17/Jun/2009 at 8:11pm
|
Your approach looks quite picture-perfect. ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 22/Jun/2009 at 11:38am
| Bought some symphony comforts. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2009 at 8:47pm
|
sold banco and brought some hawkins
Sold tv18 in other portfolio - looking at what to buy
|
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 08/Jul/2009 at 9:11pm
|
bought some bilcare - seems good to me !!!
though 2 negatives - High debt/fccb conversion and huge pledge by promoters (96% shares pledged)
|
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 08/Jul/2009 at 10:26pm
| Nikhil do you have the annual reports of Bilcare? There site does not have them. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 09/Jul/2009 at 11:28pm
|
No I dont have.. I have asked company for the same. Lets see if they send - bought some page industries |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 09/Jul/2009 at 11:44am
| Do let me know if they respond back...They haven't yet for me. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 12/Jul/2009 at 12:53pm
|
ok. I will if they respond back. Saw the annual report of FDC. Company has strong balance sheet and is doing well. Investment of 110 cr in equity + debt. They can grow at 12-15% again on yearly basis. Company is also buying back shares and extinguishing them. Already bought 32 L shares and still buying agressively any stock at less than 40. Promoters are not allowed to sell and this would mean that their stake in the company will increase. So I hope this can provide some downward cushion and possibly some upward trigger. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 17/Jul/2009 at 11:13am
| sold symphony comforts bought 2 weeks back. the share is very illiquid and I decided to watch it for 1-2 qtr more on sustainability of performance before taking the plunge. |
Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 18/Jul/2009 at 2:22pm
|
Do you have the annual reports of bilcare? i mailed the company but did not get any response  |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 18/Jul/2009 at 2:32pm
| No I am sorry. I dont have the annual report of Bilcare. Company has not sent it to me either. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2009 at 7:23pm
|
Sold out of PVR and moved to page industries |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 21/Jul/2009 at 9:34pm
|
SOLD SOME shanthi gears - They have declared lockout in their plants - Any idea on the reason Brought back symphony comforts - I really hope they pay dividend this time.. |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 21/Jul/2009 at 10:37pm
Union problem... http://ptinews.com/news/186044_Workers-demonstrate-against-CITU-for-lockout - link
|
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 21/Jul/2009 at 10:21am
I totally missed the bus on Page Industries but have you noticed that there is quite a bit of selling by promoters recently? Since you are still buying, do you feel there is still value here? ------------- |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 21/Jul/2009 at 10:28am
|
I dont know why promoters are selling but I like the business. I think they still hold more than 65%. Obviously it was much better bet at 450 than at 600 but still.. This is one business which I hope will be closer to FMCG sector than textiles. They have also been growing reasonably well in the last 2-3 years and the opportunity is big. Jockey is also a good brand.. When they grow much bigger, they will attract competition but right now there is not much competition in their category.. so all in all , in the next 2-3 years hopefully they would be able to outperform. |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 28/Jul/2009 at 11:07pm
|
Yes, promoters stake has come down from 66.67% to 64.47% in June. Maybe to create liquidity. Hedge fund Nalanda Fund whose fund manager Pulak Prasad made a 25-30 bagger in Bharti Airtel when he was with Warburg Pincus, holds almost 10%. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 29/Jul/2009 at 4:33pm
|
Added some opto circuits and hindustan tin works - Thanks to Smartcat for the info about HTW.
Though I bought at a higher price, I hope to make some money.
|
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 30/Jul/2009 at 1:13pm
|
Opto is fine but I wouldn't recommend keeping stocks like HTW in high percentage to your overall portfolio. These are companies with a big list of negatives.
Keep an exit strategy in place. If the stock price increase is because of P/E expansion, get out of it. But if the stock price increase is because of earnings growth, keep it.
I would personally look at its dividend yield for an exit strategy too. If the div yield has come down from 5% to 1%, it probably means the P/E has expanded 5 times. Exiting is not bad in this case, because you already have a 5-bagger in hand.
If you see its stock price history, you will see such big spikes in P/E but then it generally never stays there and comes back to its mean P/E range.
|
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 30/Jul/2009 at 11:24pm
| Thanks. I understand the point. I am also not looking at unknown scrips at more than 10% of my portfolio. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2009 at 12:43pm
|
Sold ENIL and Prime Focus from both portfolio at significant loss.
Bought OPto circuits
|
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2009 at 12:46pm
From frying pan to fire.....but why????? ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2009 at 12:51pm
But why do you describe his move as such?  ------------- |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2009 at 12:57pm
Opto has to do something sensational to get back to its glorious days. Not that it cannot, but its a difficult to make up your mind on that.
Disclaimer: I may be biased as I am looking to make almost a complete exit. ------------- Jai Guru!!! |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2009 at 1:03pm
If you want to make a complete exit, you should praise it to the sky!  ------------- |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2009 at 1:27pm
|
The business model of Opto is good. Once they get approval in US/EU, the growth can be significant. Also it is almost recession proof industry and the competition in this space from Indian/Chinese players is minimal. It depends on how they are able to integrate their acquisitions (they have done very well on Eurocor) and manage the cash/equity part (without burdening the balance sheet too much) will the success lie. I will still trust the fellow. He has been delivering for the last several years as you will vouch.
|
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2009 at 6:58pm
Nice tip! Will keep that in mind.
|
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 13/Aug/2009 at 8:05pm
|
Sold allied digital and bought eclerx. This seems better as atleast it pays dividend
Sold some qty of deccan chronicle, icici bank, satyam and moved to nestle
|
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 17/Aug/2009 at 7:40pm
|
Sold some Hindustan tin - bought some natural capsules, sumedha fiscal etc - AKA Smartcat finding
Natural capsule is cheap..
|
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 22/Aug/2009 at 9:32am
| bought some e clerx, balmer lawrie and sold some voltamp. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2009 at 12:49pm
|
bought some shathi gear, banco prod, natural capsule
Sold hin tin and some voltamp
|
Posted By: Bhupan
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2009 at 11:05pm
|
Niikhil ji, is this investment or trading portfolio ?? |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 28/Aug/2009 at 7:15pm
|
Combined. If no profits in short term then longterm.
HOnestly, I dont care. I can wait for my stocks to perform. However if they perform very well for my comfort, then I sell and get out
|
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2009 at 5:48pm
|
Bought some Mahindra Finance and nestle Mahindra Finance seems "relatively" cheap as of now. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 03/Sep/2009 at 8:47pm
|
Bought some banco products and natural capsules.
Symphony comforts doing well..
|
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 04/Sep/2009 at 12:30pm
| sold voltamp and bought some page industries, bilcare |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 04/Sep/2009 at 11:58pm
| added some natural capsules |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 11/Sep/2009 at 9:32am
| bought some nestle and page industries in the last week.. |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 06/Nov/2009 at 10:27pm
|
Have been on a selling spree for the last 2 months as I purchased a house and had to pay fro down payment. Partially sold most of the stocks except banks +Hawkins and Page..trimmed position in pantaloon, jagran: exited shanti gear, prime focus, fdc, banco products,ECL SERVICES, ador fontech, mah fin etc.. Recently added karur vyasa bank, zen tech, bilcare, dabur, blue star etc. Today added indraprastha medical - thanks to Vivek for that pick - Good stock almost like fmcg play, if they are not investing much !!! Since cash flow problem will be there, would be more of "watchful" investor than anything else.. |