Print Page | Close Window

Ethanol to fuel Praj's growth

Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Stock Synopsis
Forum Discription: A bried discussion of companies on very specific matters. Normally this is the prelude for further research as always members would be discussing quality companies with good management only
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=570
Printed Date: 27/Apr/2024 at 7:50pm


Topic: Ethanol to fuel Praj's growth
Posted By: varindermann
Subject: Ethanol to fuel Praj's growth
Date Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 12:52pm

 

Praj Industries is into manufacturing plant and equipment for Ethanol and Brewery Industry. They are very well recognised for their expertise in both the fields worldwide.

Lets have a look at their financial performance-

                            FY '05-'06    Half year   Full Year             

                                                 '06-'07       '06-'07(Exp.)   '08-'09(Exp.)
 
Sales(Rs.)              267.49 Cr.     228 Cr.          450 Cr.              1000 Cr.
 
Net Profit (Rs.)       24.40 Cr.       25.89 Cr.       45 Cr.                 100 Cr.
 
EPS (Rs.)                  3.01              3.10             5.38                  11.95
 
PE Ratio
(at Rs.195)              64.78                                 36.25                 16.31
 
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/resultsboardroom/prajindustriespramodchaudhari/seeturnoveratrs1000cr3yrsprajind/market/stocks/article/245671/0 - http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/resultsboardroom/prajindustriespramodchaudhari/seeturnoveratrs1000cr3yrsprajind/market/stocks/article/245671/0
 
The sales assumptions made above are based on an interview given by Mr. Pramod Chowdhry (chairman of Praj Ind.). If possible please go through the interview to get an insight into their plans.
 
I have reached Net Profit figure assuming that their net profit margin would stay at 10%. 
 
Already they have an order book of Rs. 600 Cr. and they are still getting orders as they have acquired a company in the USA- the biggest market for ethanol plants. They plan to be No.1 in the world in Ethanol plant setup market by 2001. So there is huge potential in the international market for Praj. Domestically as well Govt is thinking of mixing 10% Ethanol to Petrol. That would result in huge demand for Ethanol plants in India. So everything seems perfectly placed for Praj to grow at CAGR of 40% for the next two year i.e. till 2009.
 
My only concern is high PE ration of 64.78 (Trailing) but if they manage EPS of 5.38 in 2006-07 PE would come down to 36.25.  Praj is fully priced at these levels but growth prospects are phenomenal. If we assume it would trade at a PE of 40 in 2009 then at that time price would be Rs.478 that is 145% higher from current price of Rs. 195.
 
Basant Ji, what is your take on my analysis and the future of the stock?



Replies:
Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 1:01pm
 Correction:
 
There is a typing error in my analysis. Praj plans to be NO. 1 world wide in Ethanol plant setup market by 2009 and not 2001 as wrongly typed.
 
Sorry for the mistake.


Posted By: Bobby
Date Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 2:06pm
Praj Industries, the Rs 267-crore ethanol and brewery technology major, recently used some of the private equity it raised last fiscal for its Rs 22.5-crore acquisition of CJ Scheider Engineering Co Inc (CJS), a US-based provider of detailed engineering services to the biofuel industry, including ethanol plants.

Source ET dated Oct 31


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 2:16pm
all that you have said is fine but what if oil slides below 50 that could just postpone cos investing in ethanol plants.similarly hydrogen powered hybrids like the toyata prius could be developed real quick.i would love to see your projections come true but would be wary of making a fresh investment at the current levels.i do own praj

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 3:30pm
Praj should rock if the Govt. allows a 25% mixture withe diesel as in Brazil but even otherwise it should do well. Frankly I have just seen the company in an overview or on business model basis but as tigershark says unless crude hits US $ 75 and stays there the govt would not allow that - as they say necessity is the mother of all inventions.

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 3:32pm
Even if oil slides below $50 it cannot reach level of Ethanol price. Roughly, Ethanol will be sold at Rs. 21-22/ litre so it will still be far below prevailing petrol prices. Moreover, its will be necessary for fuel companies to mix ethanol into petrol - ITS NOT AN OPTION so demand will be there.
Worldwide big investments are being made into ethanol production and we have just started it in India. In USA alone ethanol requirement will double by 2010 from current levels.  In Brazil vehicles are running with 100%  ethanol.
 
The biggest advantage for a country like India will be reduced oil bill as India is one of the largest importer of oil so even if we manage to reduce our oil import by 10% it will be huge savings. Thats why Govt. is planning to make it mandatory to use 10% ethanol.
 
Worldwide countries are trying to reduce their dependence on oil. I have read in an article that Sweden is working towards being an oil free economy by 2015. They are planning to introduce ethanol in a big way.
 
As far as the question of other alternative fuels is concerned. They will also co-exist with ethanol but not replace it. Hydrogen fuel cannot be used to power the vehicles that are already there on the roads but ethanol can be used with minor adjustment to current engines. To replace every vehicle in the worl with Hydrogen powered vehicles will take decades, so it wont be possible practically. However no kind of  adjustment will be required to current engines with ethanol content of 10% in petrol.


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 3:39pm
Basant Ji I have a question for you-
 
Do you think a company like Praj growing at 40% CARG for next 2-3 years can command a PE multiple of 40+ ?  If not what is your view on it.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 4:24pm
All the points that you make are valid but the Govt. does not seem bothered. How many of our Mp's know the constituents of current account. Even the ones from Harvard (PC) cannot implement what they paid millions to read.
 
Anything that is influenced by global factors, Govt is always priced at lower PE's so I would not bet on a PE of more then 25 because markets do not like uncertainities and the most uncertain things are:
1) Govt. behaviour - at least in India
2) Global commodity prices.


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 4:51pm
For the knowledge of fellow members I would like to tell that already plans for mixing 5% ethanol to petrol are underway. Pilot projects are taking place in some statesand it is only a matter of time before we start using petrol with 5% mix of ethanol. As capacity for ethanol production increases the mixture content will be increased to 10% of ethanol. Also, even 5% present a huge opportunity. Already companies like Bajaj Hindustan have setup plants for ethanol production.
 
Moreover,  company's profits will jump 3 times from '06 to '09. Its not easy to find companies with such high growth. Praj could be worl leader in ethanol technology.
 
Also. we should not be missing the fact that it also setup plants for brewries. So it will benefit from the great consumer boom. Beer consumption in India is growing at a rate of 20% per annum.


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 10/Nov/2006 at 6:17pm
The following link will take you to ----
 
 
"Praj Industries- Industry Analyst Earnings conference call, October 17, 2006"
 
 
http://www.praj.net/PRAJ_conf.doc - http://www.praj.net/PRAJ_conf.doc
 
It will help you in getting more insight as to what Praj is all about and what it can achieve in next few years. I hope this document will help fellow members to get more information about Praj Industries.
 
 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 10/Jan/2007 at 6:04pm
Praj Industries has announced its 3rd quarter results:
 
main highlights of results:
 
Q3 net profit is up at 33.6 crores as compared to 3.7 crores year on year.
 
06 EPS for whole year was Rs.3.10 and and this year already its Rs.7 with one full quarter left so it can easily go to Rs.9. That means a growth of 200% in EPS. I was expecting Rs. 6 for the full year.
 
Current order boos is Rs. 850 crores (executable with one year)with more orders expected in the last quarter.
 
Current price Rs. 230 - that translated to a forward PE multiple of 25. For the last 1 and a half years it has been trading at a trailing PE multiple of 45-50.
 
It is not a cheap stock but there is definitely a lot of growth happpening in the company so it could be a great stock in the long term.
 
The big bull is also holding a huge chunk in Praj industries.
 
 
 
 
 
 


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 7:38pm
While this stock is being ignored by TEDies,it has doubled in three months since we started this thread. Basantji,if u can please transfer this thread to Emerging Companies - Mid Cap which can become Large Cap forum so that more postings is done on this stock.

-------------
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 8:17pm
Devesh  a stock outperforming is not a sufficient reason to put it there. We need some detailed write up/research so that people can take independent decisions before we can transfer it there.

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 8:30pm
There may be some reason why the stock is going up. No problem Basantji. I too think more research is needed in this stock.Two big investors RJ and Promod Haque (Silicon Valley VC) r having a stake in this company.Just wanted to make sure that this company should not slipped out of our hands.

-------------
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 8:49pm
Originally posted by deveshkayal

There may be some reason why the stock is going up. No problem Basantji. I too think more research is needed in this stock.Two big investors RJ and Promod Haque (Silicon Valley VC) r having a stake in this company.Just wanted to make sure that this company should not slipped out of our hands.
 
 
RJ is there with Vinod Khosla.
 
 


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2007 at 8:52pm
OH...i m sorry thanks for correcting me. He has been investing in clean and green technology companies worldwide.

-------------
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 05/Mar/2007 at 9:16am
Rain Fuels, an ethonal maker based in Georgia, has received $76 million - or about Rs 325 cr in US govt. grant which will help the 10m gallon per year plant to produce more stuff faster. Praj is the partner in the project. The US Dept of Energy grant will help Range Fuels scale up to as much as 40 million gallons per year of ethanol, reports say. Loosely translated, there could be some gains from this for Praj.

-------------
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 06/Mar/2007 at 1:59pm
george w bush is in braziltoday on his south america tour in brazil the single most imp agenda is to see how ethanol production, trade, demand,can be boosted in the usa also on agenda is to make ethanol tradeable commodity,also how to boost sugar cane plantations in the usa and carribean

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 07/Mar/2007 at 12:59pm
Finally, Bush has taken Thomas Friedman comments seriously....i had read his article where he said how US can learn from Brazil with regard to ethanol...

-------------
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 07/Mar/2007 at 1:53pm
RJ Bhaiya sold 195K praj shares in last week of FEB.

-------------
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 08/Mar/2007 at 11:22am
 RJ is holding 90 lakh shares of Praj. Selling 2 lakh out of 90 lakh is nothing significant.
 
Praj's share price has doubled in last two months but we must not forget that its earnings has trippled over last year. Its '06 EPS was Rs.3 and this year for first three quarters it is Rs.7 and for full year '07 EPS will be 10.
So share price performance is justifiled by fundamental performance.
 
At CMP of Rs. 370 its current year ('06) PE is 123 but after 31st march 07 its current year PE will come down to 37 (on the basis of rs. 10 EPS). Its definitely not a value stock but growth is there for certain. In my experience of holding this stock for more than two years it has never traded at a current year PE of below 40 and that too was during the crash of May 07.
 
Future looks bright- Its sales and profits are expected to more than double in next two years. Its current year order book is twice the sales of first three quarters. Majority of that order book is executable in financial year 07-08. So, there is good earnings visibility. Usually, stocks with good earnings visibility trades at high PEs.
 
 
 


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 09/Mar/2007 at 12:21pm
I agree with u varinder....i think the promoter has written some book...something related to Praj...i cannot recollect the name...Praj will continue to do well...

-------------
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 09/Mar/2007 at 2:35pm
i do agree with yu varinder the usa business should start kicking in from 08 orders in hand and with the us govt getting serious on ethanol more should follow

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 09/Mar/2007 at 3:25pm
bush signs agreement with brazil-sses the new agreement as away to boost ethanol prod in the americas and get more cars running on the same,demonstrators are worried that bush and his biofuels buddy da silva are planning an opec style cartel to control the price of ethanol.bush on the other hand says he wants to push the development of alt fuels in the americas and the carribeanand help ethanol bco an int traded commodity.looks like a whole new window of opp is being opened up for praj and its competitors

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 1:50pm
 
Following lines are taken from a fax tha Praj Ind. sent to NSE to announce an order they got from Belgium (The order was for 65 crores). Apart from the order it talks about significant developments in European Council  biofuel policy--
 
"European edndorses 10% share of biofuels in all transports by 2020.
 
On 9th March, the European Council endorsedthe policy proposal of the european Commission that there should be atleast 10% share fo biofuels in all road transport fuel by 2020 in all EU Member States. The target is binding on all EU member States.........
 
The council has asked the Commission to present this year a proposal for a new comprehensive renewable energy directive.
 
eBio a non-profit European Industry Association based in brussels, is hoping that the Commission will also consider to write into the Directive proposal an interim target for 2015, helping the industry to plan the investments needed to achieve the 10% tagret by 2020."
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Europe is also putting a lot of thrust on its biofuel program along with USA. Praj is well established in both these continents. Such developments make me believe that there will be huge demand for Praj's products and services for many years to come. Biofuels is the future industry and Praj is an expert in providing solutions for this industry and has an excellent reputation all over the world. So I think Praj will continue to give excellent results for years to come.
 


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 3:25pm
varinderman what happens if oil comes to 30 can oil come to 30? what will be the price of oil if there is a slowdown in us economic growth, and also a reasonable slowing down in china and otherparts of asia do countries then contiue to fund and persue alt fuel policy so as to be least dependent on oil?these questions come to my mind may be someone can answer these for me.

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 3:44pm

Tigershark's prognosis is correct. But I tend to stay out from a sector where there are a lot of ifs and buts (variables). No doubt people have made money in this business concept but then they got in early when nothing was priced in is how I would look at the situation.

I am no expert at this sector though.
 


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 3:51pm
does the EU and USAand its allies vigoursoly pursue its biofeuls and alt energy policy only to teach the arabs a lesson and to command financial superiority will decide the future of praj

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 4:09pm
From what I have collected from my discussions with people about biofuels is that majority of them look at biofuels  as a alternative fuel only and only because oil prices are high. Well its true that biofuels are cheaper at the moment but there are many other advantages that make the case for biofuels a lot stronger.
 
  • Biofuels are green fuels- there is a growing concern for pollution affecting our environment. Global warming is a very very serious issue. If not controlled earth will not remain a place to live in future. People will argue, notihng will happen for another hundred years or so but the thing is action that has to be taken today to make sure after 100 years there is life on earth. Even if oil prices fall down- burning of oil will emmit harmful gases. Europe and America have addressed this problem and have started working on it.
  • Oil reserves are not unlimited- there has to be alternatives because the world cannot run without fuel. Again oil wells are not about to run dry in next year or so but alternative fuel capacities have to be installed today not when there will be no oil.
  • Dependence on foreign countries for oil-Even if oil gets cheap but still most of the countries will have to import oil and that costs big money. It doesnt harm getting self reliant for your oil needs.

In our country there is not much awareness/concern about such issues but America and Europe are very very serious about this growing problem of oil availability, oil prices , dependence on Gulf countries for oil and environmental issues. They have already started in a big big way to promote biofuels. So, Praj will remain in business as Europe and America  (nas not India) are its main markets.

 
 
 


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 8:43pm

I think that oil has already created fear in enough minds during the recent times and even if it comes down to 30 level, folks who have already starting envisioning ethanol / alternative energy source wont go back. As Oil is a non renewable resource, sooner or later everybody has to move towards other sources. I therefore think that though high oil price will push other sources of energy but lower oil prices wont pull the same.



-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 8:44pm

I am sure that ethanol thing is here to stay.....but is Praj worth buying at today's valuation?? at 44 PE.



-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 6:09am
So far, I was disbeliever of bio-fuel, but yesterday I read one article on next big thing in FORTUNE magznine. Where first next thing was bio-fuel and they had one interview from Vinod Khosla. After reading that, my perception is changed. Bio-fuel story is here to stay but one need to have 5-10 years of perspective to get real gains. Not all startups will make money or survive till business is matured.
Vinod has invested in Praj and it may do reasonably good for next decade or so but conviction is name of the game. It is not buy today sell tomorrow type of story.
 


-------------
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.


Posted By: gemseeker
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 6:41am
Good this topic was started. Lot of info is very valuable. Praj has given very good returns in last few years. I beleive that growth potential is enormous. I will add more info on Bio fuels soon. 


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 16/Mar/2007 at 7:43am
Vipul...can you please post the link of the article and share it with us..

-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2007 at 12:54pm
 
This article is dated 26-01-2007.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/22/news/newsmakers/whatsnext_khosla.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007012610 - http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/22/news/newsmakers/whatsnext_khosla.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007012610
 
 
 
 
There is another article i came across on this website about alternative fuels. This article was published an year ago (24-01-2006)but it may help readers get more insight into alternative fuels.
 
 
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/02/06/8367959/index.htm - http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/02/06/8367959/index.htm


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2007 at 3:14pm
all praj enthusiastics are advised ti visit http://www.khoslaventures.com - www.khoslaventures.com and play the video thinking outside the barrel within the site go to entreapeunal resources will get the video there

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2007 at 4:47pm

 Praj is close to clinching  2 Big deals in US (U might have noticed its not falling like other midcaps in this carnage) -From unofficial sources  you may consider this news as rumor unless confirmed from authorised sources

 
Disclaimer-I am holding it since 125 levels and long till 2010. 
 


-------------
India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2007 at 9:57pm
Originally posted by varindermann

 
This article is dated 26-01-2007.
 
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/22/news/newsmakers/whatsnext_khosla.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007012610 - http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/22/news/newsmakers/whatsnext_khosla.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007012610
  
There is another article i came across on this website about alternative fuels. This article was published an year ago (24-01-2006)but it may help readers get more insight into alternative fuels.
 
 
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/02/06/8367959/index.htm - http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/02/06/8367959/index.htm
 
Varinder mannji,from next time plz post the entire article(Copy- Paste) here and write d source at the bottom...Thanks


-------------
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 27/Mar/2007 at 9:46pm
USA GETTING SERIOUS WITH ALTERNATE FUELS:gm and ford have promised bush that they shall produce 2 million vehicles to run on E85 if  the us adm can ensure proper uninterupted supply of E85 by yr 2010.gm ford and bush agree that this is the best way to get rid of  the dependence on imported oil.looks like PRAJ  may have a busy 3-4 yrs

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 27/Mar/2007 at 9:52pm
Tigersharkjee,
 
That is the reason Praj is holding on well inspite of the recent correction
 
Hold it tight for next 5 yrs...
 
Disclaimer-I have in(vested) interest by saying so..Smile


-------------
India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 27/Mar/2007 at 10:26pm
certainly will but i was just toying with the idea of buying on a correction i bought praj in early 2003.wat do yu think.good idea bad idea?

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 28/Mar/2007 at 4:05pm
 
Following article shows how much serious USA is about replacing Gasoline with ethanol and the prospects of ethanol industry.  All these developments augurs well for Praj Industries.
 
To: ENVIRONMENT EDITORS

Contact: White House Press Office, +1-202-456-2580

WASHINGTON, March 26 / < =yqin =http://yq.search.yahoo.com/search method=post> http://search.news.yahoo.com/search/news/?p=President+Bush - President Bush and CEOs of Ford, General Motors and DaimlerChrysler at the Demonstration of Alternative Fuel Vehicles:

The South Lawn

11:11 A.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT: I've just spent quite a while talking to our CEOs of American automobile companies. And I was interested in their take on my goal of reducing gasoline consumption by 20 percent over the next 10 years.

I found it very interesting that by 2012, 50 percent of the automobiles in America will be flex-fuel vehicles. That means that the American consumer will be able to either use gasoline or ethanol, depending upon, obviously, price and convenience. That's a major technological breakthrough for the country. If you want to reduce gasoline usage, like I believe we need to do so for national security reasons, as well as for environmental concerns, the consumer has got to be in a position to make a rational choice. And so I appreciate very much the fact that American automobile manufacturers recognize the reality of the world in which we live and are using new technologies to give the consumers different options.

Right now, most of our ethanol is made from corn. But the federal government is spending a lot of money to try to develop new technologies that will mean that ethanol could be made from wood chips or switch grass. Part of that request is embedded in a request to the Congress, and I would hope that Congress would move expeditiously on our plan to reduce gasoline usage by 20 percent over the next 10 years. It's in our national security interest that we do this, it's in economic security interest we do it, and all at the same time, it will help us be better stewards of the environment.

And now I'd like to ask these gentlemen to make a few comments.

MR. WAGONER: Yes, I'd just -- from General Motors' perspective, we very much share the President's vision, and we definitely see a path through to both lower oil consumption, lower amounts of imported oil, and fewer carbon emissions. And obviously, a near-term opportunity that we are moving on right now, as the President cited, is flex-fuel vehicles that are powered by E85 ethanol. There are millions on the road today. As a group, we've agreed to double our production by the year 2010, and then have 50 percent of our production E85-capable by the year 2012. This makes a big difference, and there's nothing that can be done which can reduce the curve of growth in imported oil and actually turn it down like using E85, taking advantage of what's there today.

So we look forward to the opportunity to work closely with the administration and Congress to increase the production of ethanol and to improve the distribution. And on the manufacturer's side, we look very, very much forward to playing our role in that process, as well.

MR. MULALLY: Well, I might add to what Rick said, that we at Ford absolutely are supportive of the President's goal, both for energy efficiency and independence, and to be good stewards of our environment.

One of the neat things about the conversation, again, today, on the continuing dialogue that we've had, is being able to -- the United States system to have options and have flexibility. And the fact that we have ethanol solutions today, hybrids coming along, and plus hydrogen and fuel cells and new battery technology, gives some great options to satisfy our need for flexibility, as well as being good stewards of the environment.

So Mr. President, we appreciate the leadership and we look forward to working with you going forward.

MR. LASORDA: Well, DaimlerChrysler, which includes the Mercedes car group, the Freightliner and other truck divisions in the Chrysler group, we've committed, as well, by 2012, to have 50 percent of our production not only in E85, but biodiesel. This Jeep Grand Cherokee here today is going into production as we speak, being shipped from the factory with B5.

So we've very committed to this, as well, and we think this is the answer for America to lower our dependence on foreign oil.

Thank you.

THE PRESIDENT: One of the things that I think it's important for American taxpayers to understand is that we're using some of their dollars to promote new technologies, and we're working with these CEOs and their respective companies to advance new technologies. They're on the leading edge of technological change, and it's in our interest to help promote these new technologies that are coming to the market.

And I'm excited about the future. I'm optimistic we can meet our goal. I look forward to working with Congress to do so, and I appreciate you all coming today.

    Thank you.

    END
    11:16 A.M. EDT

SOURCE White House Press Office

 
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20070326/pl_usnw/remarks_by_president_bush_and_ceos_of_ford__general_motors_and_daimlerchrysler_at_the_demonstration_of_alternative_fuel_vehicle - http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20070326/pl_usnw/remarks_by_president_bush_and_ceos_of_ford__general_motors_and_daimlerchrysler_at_the_demonstration_of_alternative_fuel_vehicle


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 03/Apr/2007 at 11:26am
In todays newspaper - Times of India-Delhi-04/04/07-  there was an advertisement from Govt of India that Ethanol Blended Petrol was being launched in Hyderabad. Some of the merits of ethanol were also mentioned it. Its a small step towards availability of ethanol blended fuel in our country but atleast we have moved in the right direction. Sooner or later ethanol will be a big thing in our country also till then Praj will keep benefiting from demand in USA and Europe.


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2007 at 11:51pm
Praj would be issuing bonus shares....Good going varindermann...

-------------
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2007 at 12:53pm

Praj is a good long term story ,(and as per Market theory -we should get buyers even at higher prices over a period of time !!) only thing I am trying to figure out ,why RJ has sold some part of his holding !!(4.5 L shares).

Anyways he is equally comepensated by the rise in Titan in which he has increased his stake.


-------------
India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2007 at 9:12am
RJ must have sold because the percentage of Praj in his portfolio has gone up and he is not a great proponent of the super concentrated portfolio!!!

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 2:18pm

Broking house, HDFC Securities has maintained buy rating on http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/engineering/prajindustries/11/37/pricechartquote/marketprice/PI17 - Praj Industries with a target of Rs 562.

< ="http://202.87.40.52/promos/sponsor_news.js">

HDFC Securities report on Praj Industries:

4QFY07 Results Review

PRAJ reported 111% jump in its top-line during the quarter, on a YoY basis, to Rs 2015 millions. However, on a sequential basis, the top-line jump was a mere 13%.

EBIDTA during 4QFY07 was up 116%(YoY), but on a sequential basis, the company saw a decline of 37%, triggered by a dramatic margin decline of 1083 bps. This was mainly due to the recognition of a higher proportion of equipment technology revenues, in the third quarter. Equipment design & technology and critical equipment supply form PRAJ’s revenue mix, with the latter yielding better profitability for the company.

PRAJ reported a Net profit jump of 158% to Rs 270 millions (YoY), but on a sequential basis, it reported a decline of 19.8%. This sequential decline could be largely attributed to the decline in EBIDTA margin.

Expecting an earnings CAGR (FY07-09E) of 66%, we expect PRAJ to continue banking on capacity additions by energy-sensitive nations. This is because we believe the setting up of ethanol distilleries not only reduces their susceptibility to foreign oil supply vulnerability, but also answers environmental issues. We maintain our BUY rating on PRAJ with a price target of Rs 562(+22.7%)

 

http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/recommendations/prajindustrieshdfcsecurities/buyprajindustri/market/stocks/article/277022 - http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/recommendations/prajindustrieshdfcsecurities/buyprajindustri/market/stocks/article/277022



Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 2:21pm
More then these brokerages I would be interested to hear your view. You have really made a great call in Praj. What price did you initially identify at(split/bonus adjusted)?

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 7:23pm
Orders worth Rs 750 cr in kitty for FY08: Praj Ind
   http://www.indiaearnings.com/videos/videos.php?autono=277084">   http://www.indiaearnings.com/videos/videos.php?autono=277084 - Play Video

http://www.indiaearnings.com/sub_india/comp_results.php?sc_did=PI17 - Praj Industries  has announced its fourth quarter results. The company's net profit stood Rs 27 crore in the fourth quarter as compared with Rs 10.5 crore in corresponding quarter previous quarter.

< ="http://202.87.40.52/promos/sponsor_news.js">

Commenting on the results, Pramod Chaudhari, Chairman of Praj Industries says that the company has order of Rs 250 crore this quarter,  while it has a kitty of Rs 750 crore in orders for FY08. He also adds that the acquisition in Brazil will be completed in two to three months.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Pramod Chaudhari:

Q: Your Q4 margins seem to be a bit under squeezed at about 13.6 versus 24.5. Any reasons for that?

A: It is not that the margins are lower but compared to Q3 they may be a little lower. The third quarter was an aberration and I think our margins for the fourth quarter too is in line with the average margin throughout the year.

Q: How do you see margins panning out for FY08? Could you give us guidance for the sales as well as the margin picture?

A: Our guidance is that sales income will cross the Rs 1,000 crore mark; of course we would like to maintain the same trend in terms of the Ebitda and profitability percentage that we have achieved as an average throughout the year, 2006-07.

Q: What has been the sort of order intake that you have seen this quarter?

A: In the last quarter we have received about Rs 250 crore of orders and now we are carrying a kitty of almost Rs 750 crore orders into FY08.

Q: You are looking for an acquisition in Brazil apparently. When do you expect to close this acquisition and could you give us further details on that front?

A: We have received an okay from the Board. Yesterday, in the Board meeting, we had three important resolutions, which were passed by the Board. One is the acquisition in Brazil, which we hope to conclude in the next two to three months, because Brazil is seeing a second wave of major investments taking place and we feel that this is the right time to enter the Brazilian market. The other one of course is launching a JV in Europe along with Aker Kvaerner, where Praj will be holding a 60% stake, which we hope to conclude in this quarter.



Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 9:58pm
so is it safe to presume that they may do a top of 1100 crs from 607crs and a bottom of 155crs from 86 resulting in an eps of10 for fy08 so if we take 235 xb price discounts the stock 23 times fy08 earnings which is areasonable valuation i suppose

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 10:51pm
I liked the bio-fuel idea after reading Bloomberg's cover story on Vinod Khosla....I saw Praj office in Pune from outside, maybe Kulmanji have more idea on this but managed to see the same on NDTV...
 
Varindermann really a great call and your research was stunning....Thumbs%20Up


-------------
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 19/Apr/2007 at 11:49am
Thank you devesh !
 
For '08 they should get an EPS of 15 if we go by management's guidence. Currentl eps is 9.40


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2007 at 4:19pm
eps of 15 is that xbonus or on the current cum bonus price?

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2007 at 4:27pm
Thats cum bonus-   ex bonus its should be above 7.5
 
 


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2007 at 9:24pm
thks,thats around 30times fy08  earnings

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: psimajin
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2007 at 11:58pm
Varindermann,
Dollex  Ind is also into Bio-Diesel .Do you have any idea about the company ?
http://theequitydesk.com/forum/member_profile.asp?PF=216&FID=38 -  


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 20/Apr/2007 at 11:53am
I just had a look at it. They are into ethanol production. Where as Praj is into supplying technology to produce ethanol. So these two are very different companies. In india ethanol production has not really picked up as yet because of slow implementation of polocies by Govt. So I am not very enthusiastic about ethanol producers in our country. Praj has become a global company now with operations in USA (they acquired a company there last year), Europe (will enter into a 60:40 joint venture in next 2-3 months) and Brazil ( about to make an aquisition in 2-3 months). They are already well established and have a very good reputation world wide. SO if anybody in India wants to play ethanol story PRAJ is the best option.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2007 at 12:37pm
Thanks for that. YOu have become our ethenol expert on this forum. It is excellent to have business analysts around each time so that we keep getting a bigger picture.

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: psimajin
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2007 at 3:44pm
thanks Smile
 


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2007 at 8:16pm
Praj is trading at 44 PE. i have few questions about it:-
1. What kind of performance are you expecting (topline & bottomline) over the next 2-3 yrs and over 5 yrs.
 
2. If the EPS doubles and PE halves, then i see no price appreciation. Correct me if i am wrong.


-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2007 at 9:59pm
If the EPS doubles and PE halves, then i see no price appreciation. Correct me if i am wrong.
_________________________________________________________
 
Why should PE become half suddenly.Are you expecting growth to slacken?


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 21/Apr/2007 at 6:07am
Yes Sir, As the size grows and growth slows down to a moderate level, i expect the PE to fall to level of 20.

-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 22/Apr/2007 at 1:24pm
For the next 2 years PRAJ should grow at 60% plus. so till then i dont see its PE coming down to 20 levels. There can be arguments about it trading at 44 PE which is high no doubt but if you try to find a stock which will grow at 60% plus for next 2 years at least trading at a multiple of 20-25, I am sure there wont be any such stock available. All the very high growth stocks (above 50% growth) are available at 40+ PE.  Looking at their future plans and the ability of management to deliver on those plans I see it growing at a very decent pace even after 2 years.  Brazilian ethanol production will double in 3 years-that means demand for ethanol plants in Brazil alone will increase at a CAGR of 26% per annum. You would expect one of the strongest players in ethanol industry worldwide to outperform that growth rate by a big margin. PRAJ is expected to announce an aquisition in Brazil in next 2-3 months. Then there is Europe and USA as well where demand will remain very high for next few years. Currently ethanol is mainly produced from sugarcane and corn but there is a lot of research going on in the field of cellulosic ethanol (ethanol produced from crops grown specifically to produce ethanol, waste material left after harvesting crops, waste wood chips, etc). Praj invest a lot in R&D and they are already working on such crops namely sweet shorgum. We are stll at a very basic stage of producing ethanol there is a ot left to happen. So I dont see growth slackening for the next few years.


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 22/Apr/2007 at 1:43pm
I believe it should trade at a PE of 40 one year from now give its high growth visibility. After one year at a PE of 40  it will reach 600. After two years it will do an EPS of 25 and at PE of 30 (though i would expect 40) price will reach 750 and that is 60% up from here and at 40 PE it would reach 1000 that is more than double from here which is exceptional. But you need to have patience its a long term call.


Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 22/Apr/2007 at 4:55pm
The recent steps taken by Praj in Biodisel and about  acquisition in Europe will certainly boost its longterm prospectus and the Praj story has got some extension now (Just like K* serials!!)

-------------
India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 22/Apr/2007 at 8:14pm
Thanks varindermann for clearing lot of doubts/concerns.

-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2007 at 2:13pm
In the latest issue of BW,Pramod Chaudhuri says,"We aim to be a Rs 1000cr company in four years"..what does this mean?

-------------
"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 08/Jun/2007 at 8:16pm
This shocked me...Shocked.....why is he talking about 1000 cr in 4 years.....it should have been in 1 year.....

-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 3:01am
there is some kind of misunderstanding here. It is definitely 1000 cr in an yeras time. They will surely do rs 1000 cr sales next year-currently its 600 Cr.  Praj is talking about becoming 1 billion dollor ( rs 4000 cr)company by 2010-11.


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 3:12am

http://www.indiaearnings.com/sub_india/comp_results.php?sc_did=PI17 - Praj Industries  has announced its fourth quarter results. The company's net profit stood Rs 27 crore in the fourth quarter as compared with Rs 10.5 crore in corresponding quarter previous quarter.

< ="http://202.87.40.52/promos/sponsor_news.js">

Commenting on the results, Pramod Chaudhari, Chairman of Praj Industries says that the company has order of Rs 250 crore this quarter,  while it has a kitty of Rs 750 crore in orders for FY08. He also adds that the acquisition in Brazil will be completed in two to three months.

Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Pramod Chaudhari:

Q: Your Q4 margins seem to be a bit under squeezed at about 13.6 versus 24.5. Any reasons for that?

A: It is not that the margins are lower but compared to Q3 they may be a little lower. The third quarter was an aberration and I think our margins for the fourth quarter too is in line with the average margin throughout the year.

Q: How do you see margins panning out for FY08? Could you give us guidance for the sales as well as the margin picture?

A: Our guidance is that sales income will cross the Rs 1,000 crore mark; of course we would like to maintain the same trend in terms of the Ebitda and profitability percentage that we have achieved as an average throughout the year, 2006-07.

Q: What has been the sort of order intake that you have seen this quarter?

A: In the last quarter we have received about Rs 250 crore of orders and now we are carrying a kitty of almost Rs 750 crore orders into FY08.

Q: You are looking for an acquisition in Brazil apparently. When do you expect to close this acquisition and could you give us further details on that front?

A: We have received an okay from the Board. Yesterday, in the Board meeting, we had three important resolutions, which were passed by the Board. One is the acquisition in Brazil, which we hope to conclude in the next two to three months, because Brazil is seeing a second wave of major investments taking place and we feel that this is the right time to enter the Brazilian market. The other one of course is launching a JV in Europe along with Aker Kvaerner, where Praj will be holding a 60% stake, which we hope to conclude in this quarter.



Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 3:15am
In the above interview Mr. Pramod Chowdhry is talking about doing sales of Rs. 1000 cr next year. They already have orders worth Rs.750 crores in the bag so 1000 cr. in 4 years doesnt make sense. I also checked that article on Business World website. I am sure ther is some printing mistake.


Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 3:41am
In a recent interview RJ refered Praj and said it will make 100O Cr this year !!! I think we should not pay much attention to the printing mistake (and look Market also has not paid any attention to it !!) and see if it can achieve 4000Cr in 4 years which seem to me quite a herculean task but who knows, infy has taken maximum time for its first ....

-------------
India_Bull forever Bull !
www.kapilcomedynights.com


Posted By: kaushalchawla
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 7:43am
I would like to tell you folks once instance which happened today.
 
I am in New Jersey, US and I went to get the petrol filled in the car. After having filled almost 40% of the tank, i noticed that the petrol was market with 10% of ethanol. I didnt knew abt this. I am not sure if my car's engine can run on this kind of petrol without any modification. So i told him to stop filling and went to another gas station. There also i noticed the same. I have been using this gas station for quite a while but maybe i noticed it today.
 
That was quite an interesting thing considering that i have exposure to praj ind. Wink.
 
Just wanted you folks to know abt it. To me that was a suprise. Cool


-------------
Warm Regards,
Kaushal


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 10/Jun/2007 at 10:41am

Great feedback, maybe we could have the same things in India a few years down the line.



-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2007 at 7:52am
Originally posted by kaushalchawla

I would like to tell you folks once instance which happened today.
 
I am in New Jersey, US and I went to get the petrol filled in the car. After having filled almost 40% of the tank, i noticed that the petrol was market with 10% of ethanol. I didnt knew abt this. I am not sure if my car's engine can run on this kind of petrol without any modification. So i told him to stop filling and went to another gas station. There also i noticed the same. I have been using this gas station for quite a while but maybe i noticed it today.
 
That was quite an interesting thing considering that i have exposure to praj ind. Wink.
 
Just wanted you folks to know abt it. To me that was a suprise. Cool




You do not need any modification to your car engine.
In Texas we have been using this milawat Wink for over 6 months now. Must have just rolled out in NJ.



-------------
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.


Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2007 at 9:56am
I believe there was a mandate in India for a 5% mix of ethanol with Petrol which was later supposed to be hiked to 8-10% by 2008-09. I am not sure if it was implemented or not.


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2007 at 10:03am
That mandate was there almost 5~6 years ago when BJP's Ram Naik was Minister for Petroleum. It wasn't implemented.


-------------
Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: psimajin
Date Posted: 11/Jun/2007 at 11:21am

In Western UP pertrol comes with 5% ethanol mix



Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 13/Jun/2007 at 5:24pm

My car likes Kingfisher Strong beer - so I always have it in my boot.

What is Praj's history? How did an Indian company acquire technology to convert various raw materials into Ethanol? Does it have some kind of technology partner?
 


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2007 at 5:32pm
Praj Industries an outperformer: HDFC Securities
2007-06-21 12:24:23 Source : Moneycontrol.com
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/newsarticle/news_email.php?autono=287853 - Email      Print Version     
< ="http://202.87.40.52/promos/sponsor_news.js">

Broking house, HDFC Securities has recommended an outperformer rating on http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/engineering/praj-industries/12/25/PI17 - Praj Industries .

 

HDFC Securities report on Praj Industries: 

 

Key Positives 

 

We see PRAJ transforming itself into a “Global provider” of end-to-end  Ethanol distillation equipment and technology. In this process, we see the company exploring newer territories (Europe and Brazil, to be  specific), which would tend to significantly improve our Conviction  levels on PRAJ’s business growth. We built our opinion on PRAJ’s success in the last few years (Mainly in tapping the US markets). 

 

We expect PRAJ to post >67% earnings growth on a CAGR basis over FY07-09E. We expect exports to increase further, as the company recognizes its US orders as revenues and garners increased business  from other export markets, mainly European. 

 

On the long term demand for fuel ethanol (production expected to cross 24 billion gallons by 2010 against 15.5 billion gallons currently), we remain bullish. We expect PRAJ to tap growth opportunities, going forward as it intends to gain a share in key markets including the US,  Europe and Brazil, where it plans to enter soon. We believe PRAJ’s  European and Brazilian forays will be the catalyst to propel the  company, going forward. Our argument is based on the premise that these nations (mainly the US, Europe and Brazil), account for  >80% of the current global ethanol production. 

 

PRAJ recently inked a JV in Europe with Aker Kvaerner called  BioCnergy Europe B.V. PRAJ owns 60% in the JV and Aker Kvaerner  the balance 40%. We believe this JV is strategically advantageous for PRAJ, as this would help it tap the European bio-ethanol market as  well. 

 

Outlook & Valuation 

 

We retain our conviction levels on PRAJ’s business growth, especially its strategy of focusing on inorganic and organic expansion initiatives.  We believe this would help the company answer its growing business needs.  We also believe, PRAJ’s nature of business provides an early mover advantage, in terms of entering newer territories and improving the confidence of the clients in its ability to execute projects. On a PE multiple of 27X & 20X its FY08E & FY09E earnings, we see PRAJ to be an OUTPERFORMER.    



Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2007 at 5:39pm
RJ has sold 4,62000 praj industries on 20/06 at an average price of 519.  

-------------
Make your Life as simple as possible.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2007 at 5:41pm
He might be balancing his portfolio because he owns more then 90 lac shares of Praj.

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 21/Jun/2007 at 9:21pm
the jv with AK marks an imp milestone in praj transition to a global company.praj will hold majority stake in the jv.the jv could provide praj with an entry into such areas as oil and gas, refining, and chemicals, mineing and metals and power gen in which AK  has a srtong presence.biofuels demand is expected to go up 3 folds from the current cunsumption levels by 2010  this will lend greater degree of visibility with regards to its earnings.

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2007 at 11:57am
News Subject:  

Praj Industries - Press Release

News Body:  

Praj Industries Ltd has informed BSE that Aker Kvarener has been selected by British Petroleum (BP) British Foods Plc (ABF) and DuPont to execute the Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) for a planned new world-scale bioethanol plant in the UK. Aker Kvarener's joint venture partner, the Company will provide the technology and process package. BP and ABF subsidiary British Sugar Plc will own 45 percent of the new grass roots facility planned for BP's Saltend site, near Hull, with DuPont owning the remaining 10 percent. the world-scale wheat to ethanol plant will produce some 420 million litres of fuel ethanol a year. The contract value to Aker Kvarener is not disclosed.

Using bioethanol technology provided by the Company, the grass roots plant will seek to utilise locally grown wheat as feedstock to produce the fuel ethanol. The award of this project underlines the co-operation between Aker Kvaerner and the Company, which was recently reinforced by the formation of the BioEnergy Joint Venture (JV) - announced June 12, 2007

‘This is indeed a very good start for the Aker Kvaerner and Praj JV in Europe and this is a very distinguished opportunity for Praj to supply technology to one of the largest plants to be set up in the UK," said Pramod Chaudhari, Chairman of the Company.

Work on this preparatory phase of the project begins immediately and should be completed by the end of 2007. Subject to the necessary regulatory approvals construction on the plant Would commence next year, with commissioning and start-up scheduled for late 2009.

The award of the FEED scope follows the successful completion of the feasibility study for this complex, which was completed by Aker Kvaerner and the Company in December 2006.

Aker Kvarener has been a long term engineering partner for BP at the Hull site - the largest producer of acetic acid in Europe - and has executed a range of EPC project at this site and also at other BP site worldwide.

Aker Kvarener is also a long-standing engineering partner for DuPont globally. The Company is currently providing the process license to the British Sugar Wissington bioethanol plant in the UK.

Biofuels held to reduce overall emissions of greenhouse gases and are a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels bio ethanol can be blended in various preportions in petrol. Using bioethanol can reduce overall carbon dioxide emissions compared to a traditional petrol-only engine.



Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2007 at 12:13pm
Praj-Aker joint venture has barely  started operations and they have won such a big contract. This augurs well for praj in Europe.
 
Some people are getting a bit nervous as Praj's price has fallen from a high of  Rs. 535 to Rs. 460.  10-15% fall in a stock hardly matters if you are a long term investor.
 
Peter Lynch has talked about comparing PE ratio with the Growth in profits of a company (known as PEG ratio) as one of the means to determine how expensive a stock is. We can get PEG ration by  dividing growth by PE ratio. In Praj's case expected future growth for next two years is 65% and its trailing PE ratio is 48 ( based on current market price of 480). So, Praj's PEG comes to 65 divided by 48 = 1.35.   PEG above 1 means the stock in question is not overvalued. Higher the PEG less overvalued is the stock. So on this parameter PRAJ is not expensive because it will grow at very high rate for the next 2 years. Long term investors should see higher prices ( close to 1000) for sure but they need to have conviction in the story to keep on holding for next couple of years.
 


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2007 at 9:35pm
the press release just reinforces the post that i have made regarding the joint venture

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: mukesh
Date Posted: 10/Jul/2007 at 6:01pm

EXCLUSIVE STORY

 

A NGO in Maharashtra had the vision to make our farmers literate about new technologies like fermentation, Apiculture etc allied things. They were also supported by Denmark and France government. Under the scheme few engineers from India were every sent to these countries where they would be trained about these technologies and the same was supposed to spread over in India for farmers by these engineers. In this period of training, they were paid stipend by Denmark and France govt. At the same time NGO would also pay them salaries for their family living in India.

 

But before engineers were sent for training they were required to sign an agreement that if they leave the organization before completing 5 years from the training engineer will have to pay compensation to organization on the ground that the money spent on them has gone waste.

One such engineer came back from Denmark and France to India. He worked in the organization for 2-3 months and left the organization without paying compensation.

NGO filed suit against the engineer, but unfortunately lost the case in court on some other grounds.

 

NOW the same engineer is at a very senior position at Praj. And using the same knowledge he got there.



-------------
Life gives answers in three ways-It says YES and gives waht u want. It says NO and gives u something better. It says WAIt and gives you the best


Posted By: vijinat
Date Posted: 10/Jul/2007 at 7:12pm
I hold the view that the Engineer did the right thing. Withthe kind of havoc, the politicians and bureaucrats play in these long years after independence in business, the Engineer would have achieved nothing even after his return to his parent organisation. I feel that the money spent on him by the Government had ultimately benefited the society in a different way through Praj.


Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 10/Jul/2007 at 5:38am
One interesting view....If agricultural land will be used for petro products, then it make sense to invest in agri commodities. Is it not ?

-------------
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 1:19pm
RJ has massively reduced his position in PRAJ. From 1.8 crore shares (after bonus) he now holds close to 75 lac shares only.Seems that he is getting out. Volumes have been very high in this counter also.
 
So Guys just check up on Praj before holding/buying.


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 1:59pm
As per BSE website Rakesh and Rekhan Jhunjhunwala were holding 9000312 shares of Praj on 31st March (Rakesh Jhunjhunwala=5489312 and Rekha Jhunjhunwala=3511000) . At the end of June quarter RJ was holding 7513312 shares (RJ=5489312 and Rekha jhunjhunwala=2024000). we all know he did sell Praj before 30th  June.
 
I think the 75 lakh shares he is holding right now are pre bonus not ex-bonus as the stock went ex-bonus on 20th July. Moreover Bonus shares have not yet been credited to anybody as book closure ends today.
 
He is one of the directors of the company so if he sells his personal shares (not his wife's) in Praj it would have got mentioned on BSE website as it is a cse of insider trading.
 
So, i am not sure about this claim of RJ getting out of Praj based on the figures available on BSE website. 


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 2:12pm

No problem. I just posted what I saw!



-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 2:17pm
 Basant ji,
 
Even i was shocked to see it at first sight as the figures got posted today only. But on comparing the figures for march end and June end on BSE website i found out that the no. of shares were pre bonus. You almost gave me a heart attack ! hehe :) 
 
Anyways, Praj will declare results on 28th July i.e. saturday. We can get an idea as to what kind of profit we can expect from it this year.


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 2:29pm
varinder so the bse web site is continuing to show the shares at pre bonus qty wheras the stock has becom x bonus is that correct and is that why the confusion

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 2:39pm
yes it is correct. That is what has led to the confusion.  Total no. of shares of Praj was 83900066 at the end of March Quater whereas now its 91372879 ( the increse is because warrants issued to Vinod Khosla in 2006 were conveterd into shares). If the figures were ex-bonus no.  of shares would have doubled as bonus is 1:1. 


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 3:04pm
thks that clears the doubt but rj did sell some close to 1% of his holding i think cum bonus correct me if im wrong.

-------------
understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 3:58pm
Sold about 15 lacs from Rs 90 lacs but it is good to see all of us are on our toes.

-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: varindermann
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 4:04pm
When it comes to high growth stocks trading at very high PEs one has to be on one's toes. Till now Praj's growth is higher than its PE and is expected to be like that for next two years. But these are expectations and its necessary to keep a watch to make sure that thaese expectations are met year after year. According  to Peter Lynch as long as a stock's PE is lower than its expected growth- its not expensive !!!


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 27/Jul/2007 at 12:01pm
If one is bullish on Praj, then it is worthwhile following this unfolding story:
 
http://www.bseindia.com/qresann/news.asp?newsid=%7bA84413AB-4A1E-442B-9940-93F3C068310B%7d - Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd has announced that the Company is making a strong move to consolidate its leadership position in the Biofuels space. Its three part strategy includes:

a) Acquisition of ethanol EPC & equipment manufacturing capability
b) Acquisition of ethanol manufacturing assets
c) Organic growth in ethanol capacity

As a part of the Strategy, the Company has acquired a majority share of KBK Chem-Engineering Pvt. Ltd. (KBK) for a consideration of Rs 37 Crores. KBK is an engineering Company, primarily engaged in providing turnkey solutions in the field of Distilleries, Ethanol plants and Bio-fuels and about 50% of its revenues are from overseas projects.
 
---------------------------------------
 
KBK was formed by 4 technocrats all ex-Praj! KBK is Pune-based pvt ltd company on a very high growth path. Their growth was constrained due to lack of capital/funds which now Shree Renuka has pumped-in.
 
http://www.kbk-chem.com/index.htm - More on KBK here.
 
P.S.: This is not a recommendation to buy Shree Renuka or Praj. Just wanted to share information as I know few people in KBK.
 
 
 


-------------
Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 27/Jul/2007 at 10:16am
When we start reacting to legend, essentially we start living without  head. Create own space & live king's life.

-------------
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.



Print Page | Close Window