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DFM Food Ltd-an Emerging FMCG backed by Westbridge

Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
Forum Discription: These are companies operating in growing markets having have certain niches or specific attributes like new sector plays. These are emerging multibaggers with high risks and high rewards.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=4652
Printed Date: 19/Apr/2024 at 10:25am


Topic: DFM Food Ltd-an Emerging FMCG backed by Westbridge
Posted By: maheshishah
Subject: DFM Food Ltd-an Emerging FMCG backed by Westbridge
Date Posted: 11/Feb/2014 at 2:38pm
 

Company Overview :



  • DFM Foods Ltd. [ BSE Code – 519588 ] is operating in one of the fastest growing FMCG segment viz., Packaged Snack Food segment and is competing with brands like Kurkure, Lay's, Yellow Diamond, etc..

  • Company is a pioneer in introducing branded (packaged) extruded snacks with the brand name 'CRAX' in 1984 which even today enjoys ~8 % marketshare in North India.

  • Despite stiff competition, company has grown its sales (by value) at 10 Years' CAGR of 27.20 % and

    at 5 Years' CAGR of 48.08 %.

  • Volume growth has been equally impressive with 10 Years' CAGR in sales by volume at 16.65 % and

    5 Years' CAGR in sales by volume at 32.49 %.

  • Company increased its manufacturing capacity by ~167 % in FY12 (precisely in November 2011) and within 3 years, it is sitting on verge of approaching 100 % utilisation in its old & new capacities combined which speaks highly of acceptance of company's products in the marketplace.

  • Westbridge Capital, one of the largest and most successful public markets fund, has recently, on 30th January 2014, taken a significant 24.90 % equity stake in the company, at INR 259.10 per share, which augurs very well for future scalability and profitable growth of the company.

  • Company is working on a three pronged growth strategy of --

    --diversifying geographical sales presence,

    --diversifying geographical manufacturing presence, &

    --diversifying product offerings via new launches.

  • Management has been proactive in its IR initiatives by regular hosting of concalls and publishing of detailed presentations/press releases after every quarterly result. Senior management is professional with decades of experience in the business.

  • Despite all positives as also underowned equity structure with low floating stock, company is trading at reasonable :

    1.22x Mcap/Sales TTM,

    1.01x Mcap/Sales Forward

    1.45x EV/Sales TTM

    1.26x EV/Sales Forward




Replies:
Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 11/Feb/2014 at 2:39pm
Positives :
 
 


(1) Westbridge Capital, one of the largest and most successful India focussed public markets fund, taking the maximum permissible ( w/o triggering open offer ) 24.90 % equity stake in the company is the biggest positive factor working in favour of DFM Foods Ltd.. On January 30th 2014, Westbridge has purchased 24.90 % equity stake in the company from the promoters at INR 259.10 per share by paying in total INR 64.52 cr. The funds raised by the promoters in their personal capacity are likely to be used to repay Intercorporate Deposit (ICD) worth INR 31 cr. outstanding in the books of DFM Foods Ltd. as also to fund their CAPEX plans for The Delhi Flour Mills Co. Ltd. -- the Parent Promoter company of DFM Foods. Post this stake sale, promoters hold 44.12 % equity stake in the company which puts combined holding of promoters and Westbridge Capital in the company at 69.02 %.





(2) Management is decent with more than 95 years of history in flour milling business and 30 years history in Snack Food business. Infact, company was the pioneer in introducing branded packaged extruded snacks in India (particularly North India) under the brand name 'CRAX' which even today enjoys ~8 % marketshare in North Indian market.





(3) Exceptional growth attained by the company over last 10 years in its branded snacks food business. Growth is volume-led rather than pricing-led which augurs very well for the future of the company.


(fig. In ` cr)

9MFY14

FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10

FY09

FY08

FY07

FY06

FY05

FY04













Sales by Value

200.11

225.24

169.42

119.84

72.18

53.33

31.66

23.88

18.44

20.51

20.76













Volume

( in MT )

NA

11853

9328

6590

4504

3611

2903

2407

2178

2466

2563













Value Growth

18.85 %

32.94 %

41.37 %

66.02 %

35.34 %

68.44 %

32.57 %

29.50 %

(10.51) %

(1.20) %

2.16 %













Volume Growth

NA

27.06 %

41.54 %

46.31 %

24.72 %

24.38 %

20.60 %

10.51 %

(11.67) %

(3.78) %

0.90 %





(4) Company's flagship brand CRAX Corn Rings is the major contributor to the growth and the growth has been so well that it has not allowed the company to focus on any other product as entire production capacity needed to be channelised to manufacture this product. In current FY14, management has initiated derisking exercise which also seems to be giving somewhat fruitful results so far. However, its too early to talk about success of other product with conviction.




( fig. In ` cr. )

9MFY14

FY13

FY12





Crax Corn Rings

160

189

142





Namkeen

22

31

25





Natkhat

11

5

2





Krunchoids

( launched in Q2FY14 )

6.5







(5) Company was predominantly a North Indian company selling 100 % of its produce in only that geography till FY11. From FY12 it started divsersifying into other geographies starting from Western India in FY12-end to Eastern India in FY13-end. Considering the fact that its only two full years of company selling its products in West and one full year of company selling its products in East, the progress seems more than satisfactory. Channel checks, particularly in East India, suggest good pick-up in company's products in the region.



10 Years' Geographical Sales Breakup

( in ` cr. )

9MFY14

FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10

FY09

FY08

FY07

FY06

FY05

FY04













North

166

191

160

119

72

53

31

23

18

20

20













West

19

28

9

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-












-

East

15

6

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-





(6) Profitability seems to be a bit under pressure over last two fiscals mainly because of three reasons :



(a) Company aggressively marketing its products in order to facilitate strong sales in West & East where it diversified recently.



(b) Since company's manufacturing plants are located in North India, it results in increased freight costs for sales into West & East India which pressures EBITDA to an extent.



(c) For increasing its capacity by 167 %, company undertook debt-funded CAPEX because of which interest burden has increased thereby putting pressure on Net Profitability.


Given below is an overview of Sales, PBT, Interest costs as well as Gross Debt, Gross Block and Operating Cash Flows of the company over the period of last 10 years.



( fig. In ` cr. )

FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10

FY09

FY08

FY07

FY06

FY05

FY04












Sales

225.24

169.42

119.84

72.18

53.33

31.66

23.88

18.44

20.51

20.76












PBT

10.04

15.92

12.71

6.34

7.49

2.08

0.16

0.85

1.64

0.09












Interest Expense

9.42

4.47

2.00

1.32

2.27

2.03

0.93

0.65

0.62

1.09












OCF

19.87

17.48

14.09

15.94

14.66

(13.85)

0.98

0.40

3.17

(1.16)












Gross Block

105.08

89.71

36.46

25.85

11.16

9.21

7.88

7.47

7.24

7.47












Gross Debt

60.90

57.73

15.79

15.97

9.83

26.08

4.02

4.15

4.10

6.66





(7) Company should run out of existing capacities by FY15, so, going forward, the growth strategy of the management could be either or all of the following four :


(a) To serve the growing regions of West & East India out of its existing Noida plant (in North India) where company has built enough common infrastructure to accomodate additional ~65 % capacity over and above existing capacities (old & new combined) with minimal time and monetary investment. However, while doing this, company will have to incur high freight costs required to transport produce from North to West & East India. Hence, since North India is also a growing region for DFM, it will be in the best interest of the company to keep such additional capacities to serve the Northern region itself in the long run while for a short while, till alternate facilities are built, West & East can easily get served by the Northern plant.



(b) To set-up a greenfield facility at a location which is best suited to serve West & East regions combined.



(c) To set-up a greenfield facility in South India to cater to the market there as company is actively considering entering Southern region which is a high growth region for extruded snacks segment.



(d) To buy out any existing manufacturing facility in any of the above stated regions and upgrade it to match company's quality standards so that considerable time can be saved which is otherwise required to set-up a greenfield facility.


With Westbridge as its key partner in guiding out future growth strategies, focus should surely be on charting out profitable aggressive growth as funding the growth should now not be a problem for the company.





(8) If we extrapolate the said strategies into numbers, company should easily be able to achieve following financials over coming two years. We have tried to remain as conservative as possible in order to be on a safer side.


( fig. in ` cr. )

FY14e

FY15e

FY16e





Sales

265

318

410





EBITDA

26

30

43





PAT

7.50

9.5

16.9





Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 11/Feb/2014 at 2:40pm
 


Concerns :


(1) Inter Corporate Deposit (ICD) given to parent The Delhi Flour Mills Co. Ltd.




9MFY14

FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10

FY09

FY08

FY07

FY06

FY05

FY04













I. C. D.

( in ` cr. )

31

19

13.25

5.50

3.60

5.50

13.30

6.95

7.40

6.90

2.50



Here, it is also worthwhile to note the financial performance of The Delhi Flour Mills Co. Ltd. over last 10 years as also its Gross Debt and Equity over same period :



Delhi Flour Mills Financials

( in ` cr. )

FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10

FY09

FY08

FY07

FY06

FY05

FY04












Sales

276.63

233.99

250.82

244.88

223.12

220.16

172.72

133.91

121.05

99.90












EBITDA

16.18

15.19

11.02

7.68

9.31

8.13

3.50

2.75

2.18

2.16












PAT

3.10

2.92

3.38

1.93

0.19

0.37

0.35

0.31

0.15

0.21












Equity

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43

0.43












Debt

119.80

61.09

35.96

30.96

46.48

40.14

16.11

15.09

10.08

11.67



Over last two fiscals i.e. FY12 & FY13, the parent company is relocating its flour milling operations to Plot No. 86-B,C,D,E, Sector Ecotech-I, Extension-I, Greater Noida (U.P.) from current location 8377-8381, Roshanara Road, Delhi. Plant & Machinery are imported from Ocrim SPA during FY13 which were already received and civil constuction was going on at the site. Total Project cost was estimated at INR 172 cr. out of which INR 64.73 cr. were spent till FY13. Commercial Production at the said new facility is expected to commence from September 2014 as per company estimates.


To Fund this project, management had approached its Bankers for an additional project finance of INR 58 cr. over and above INR 67.15 cr. project finance tied up in FY12. In addition, company was looking at raising funds via equity route which should be to the tune of ~INR 46 cr..


Now, before discussing any further let's go to our Concern No. 2 and then check whether both concerns stand addressed as on date.





(2) DFM Foods Ltd. promoters sold their personal stake in the company to the tune of 24.90 % at INR 259.10 per share to Westbridge Capital on 30th January 2014 and raised INR 64.52 cr. in their personal capacity of which no funds came to the company's books.


Here, three things need to be noted :


(a) In the concall hosted by the management after declaration of Q3FY14 results which also coincided with the event of said promoters stake sale, management assured that out of the INR 64.52 cr. raised, 31 cr. will come to DFM Foods books via repayment of ICD given to the parent.


(b) Since parent promoter co., The Delhi Flour Mills Co. Ltd. was already in the requirement of funds in order to finance its project (as discussed above in Concern No. 1), the additional 33 cr. which were raised by the said promoter stake sale seem perfectly fine and exactly matches with the funds requirement as discussed in Concern_1.


(c) Significant investment by a renowned PE Player like Westbridge taking maximum permissible ( w/o triggering open offer ) equity stake of 24.90 % and the fact that one of its founding members, Mr. Sandeep Singhal, has also joined company's board augurs very well for the future of the company and puts to rest both Cocern_1 & Concern_2.





(3) Company operates in a very competitive environment and that too at low price points of Rs. 5 and Rs. 10 per pack. Competitors are biggies like Pepsi, ITC, Parle and the new entrant GCL (Gopal Corporation) as also strong mid-size players like Balaji and Prakash Snacks; forget here numerous regional players which operate at small scale.


Here, two things need to be noted :


(a) Company has carved out a niche for itself in 6-10 years age bracket and concentrates its marketing activities on said genre. Its “gift with every pack” strategy is one of its kind amogst competition and has enabled it to sustain as well as grow handsomely against competition.


(b) Company increased its capacity by 167 % in FY12 (precisely in November 2011) and old plus new capacity should get to 100 % utilisation well before FY15-end which means in just 3 years timeframe, entire increased capacity got absorbed by the market which speaks highly of acceptance of company's products in the marketplace. If we look at volume growth attained by the company over last 5 years, the picture gets more clearer :



FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10

FY09







Sales by Value

( in ` cr. )

225.24

169.42

119.84

72.18

53.33







Sales by Volume

( in M.T. )

11853

9328

6590

4504

3611







Volume Growth

( YoY )

27.06 %

41.54 %

46.31 %

24.72 %

24.38 %



Key Monitorables :




(1) Repayment of ICD :


Management has assured the shareholders about repayment of INR 31 cr. ICD given to The Delhi Flour Mills Co. Ltd. out of the funds raised via promoters' stake sale to Westbridge Capital. We need to monitor whether the actual repayment happens during Q4FY14 or not.



(2) Increase in Manufacturing Capacity :


As discussed before, company should run out of existing capacities (old & new combined) in FY15 and so it will require to draw plans for capacity augmentation soon (before Q1FY15). Since the company has now expanded into West & East India as also it is actively looking for entering into Southern market, so, the roadmap towards increase in existing capacities will be key monitorable aspect asto where and how the company plans to increase its manufacturing presence.



(3) Sales Growth :


Company's sales growth, particularly in West & East India will be key monitorable to check whether the company's products are finding same level of acceptance as they have found in North India. Also, sales growth in North India will also need to be closely watched out for to ensure company doesn't loose out in its home market.



(4) Sales Mix :


Starting FY14, company has started to focus on 'Natkhat' brand which is at Rs. 2 price point as also has launched new product in the form of 'Kruchoids'. Going forward it will be interesting to see the sales mix as to whether other products gain sales momentum vis-a-vis company's flagship brand 'Crax' Corn Rings or not.



(5) Debt & Equity Dilution :


How the company manages CAPEX plans over next two years will be key aspect to monitor – whether it goes for entire debt funded CAPEX or dilutes equity to what extent or how it balances debt-equity structure to finance CAPEX.



(6) New Product Launches :


Company, in all likelihood, is going to go for aggressive new product launches starting FY15. Profile of products launched, its respective peer scenario as well as how well they get received in the marketplace will be key monitorable.

 
 
 
 
Discl.- Hold




Posted By: Arshavin23
Date Posted: 11/Feb/2014 at 11:25am
Mahesh,

Is there any improvement in their power supply situation? If I remember correctly, they had to depend a lot on their own power generation rather than drawing power from the grid. This is another factor that is compressing margins.

Overall company seems to be a decent bet. They sell only on cash basis and have 0 accounts receivable indicating the demand pull of the product. I'm also monitoring whether their growth in the new regions will lead to
more investments in their working capital.

Currently they are faring better in the east than the west.


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2014 at 2:05pm
Hi Arshavin,
 
No...the power situation seems to be not improving but is not pathetic either....
 
Yes.....there seems to a great demand pull for company's products and thats what has attracted me...as mentioned before, the increased capacity got absorbed within only 3 years by the consumers and that suggests good fortune ahead for this company.....
 
I am not that much concerned about working capital but is definetly concerned about likely capacity augmentation plans which should get announced by Q1FY15.....time and money investment will be key things to monitor....
 
All and all, with westbridge's entry, company seems to be on a firm ground....
 
Feel free to get back to me in case of any further query.
 
Rgds.


Posted By: Arshavin23
Date Posted: 12/Feb/2014 at 4:14pm
Thanks Mahesh,

Have you attended any of the concalls hosted by the company? If yes, could you please advise on how an individual investor can join. They don't seem to mention the details on their website.


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2014 at 4:18pm
Hi Arshavin,
 
Yes I have attended the concalls...you just need to dialin the nos. provided...when the next concall is going to be held i will provide here in this forum the details of the nos.
 
rgds.


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 24/Feb/2014 at 12:24pm
Co. launches Crax Holi packs with Holi gifts for kids.....commercial already posted on youtube to be aired from current week.....sound strategy ; co. seems to be moving on right track.

Rgds.


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 19/Mar/2014 at 1:53pm

Private equity investor Lighthouse to buy 25% in Bikaji Foods


By Sneha Shah, ET Bureau | 19 Mar, 2014, 06.44AM IST 


MUMBAI: Global private equity investor Lighthouse Funds will purchase a 25% stake in snacks maker Bikaji Foods International for Rs 120 crore, said two people with direct knowledge of the development. 

The Rajasthan-based snack maker will use the funds to expand its manufacturing and distribution to markets outside North India and to enter the fastest growing ready-toeat food market. "Lighthouse Funds has signed the agreement to invest in the company. The investment will be a deferred one," said an investment banker with knowledge of the development. 

ET was the first to report the company's plans to raise capital on November 27. Unlisted Bikaji Foods makes snacks like bhujia, papad, namkeens and sweets, and exports a few of these products, besides running quick-service restaurants in Mumbai under the Bikaji Food Junxon brand. 

Lighthouse Funds' partner Sachin Bhartiya declined comment, while Bikaji Foods managing director Deepak Kumar could not be  reached for comments despite repeated attempts. 

In 2013, Indian Credit Rating Agency or ICRA, had considered Bikaji's strong brand and established distribution network for its rating. "Financial health of the company also remains comfortable, as reflected in the relatively low gearing of the company, low working capital intensity of operations and healthy debt protection indicators," ICRABSE 0.41 % said. It, however, raised concerns on the fragmented and unorganised market in which local companies compete with brands like Bikaji and the pressure on the company's gearing ratio, as it chose to expand through debt. 

Lighthouse Funds provides early and growth stage investments to mid-market companies. Through its 2008 vintage fund, it invests in healthcare, education, rural consumption and agribusiness companies. 

The PE fund is in the process of raising its second fund, India 2020 Fund II, of around $150 million, with firm commitments of over $75 million from investors or Limited Partners in industry parlance. 




Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 20/Mar/2014 at 9:56am
CIPEF may buy 15% in Balaji Wafers

Stake sale talks are in an advanced stage and the transaction may be closed within a month, says company official

FIRST PUBLISHED: FRI, MAR 21 2014. 12 26 AM IST

Mumbai: Balaji Wafers Pvt. Ltd is in advanced talks with Capital International Private Equity Funds (CIPEF) to sell nearly 15% in the snacks maker according to two people familiar with the development, who did not want to be named. One of them is directly involved with the transaction.
“It is the decision of the next generation and since they have to run the business in future I have left the decision (of stake dilution) to them,” said Chandubhai Virani, managing director and founder, Balaji Wafers. Virani confirmed that talks were at an advanced stage with CIPEF. “We are looking at closing the deal with Capital International in a month’s time. We are looking at diluting close to 15% stake at a valuation of about Rs.4,000 crore for the company,” said a top official of Balaji Wafers who asked not to be named because of a non-disclosure agreement with the PE fund.
Emails sent to the media relations team as well as to a US-based spokesperson of CIPEF on Wednesday did not elicit any response. A singapore official of the firm on Wednesday also declined to comment.

In December, Mint reported that investment firms Actis Capital and CIPEF were the frontrunners to buy the stake in Balaji Wafers and that EY was advising the seller on the transaction.
“Apart from the money that will be used for setting up new plants, Capital International will also bring their rich global experience to our management. We have seen in the past how other homegrown companies like Paras Pharma have turned around and grown with the help of PE firms,” said the Balaji Wafers official cited above.

In 2006, Actis acquired a minority stake in Paras Pharmaceuticals Ltd; by 2008, it held 63% in the company. In 2010, Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc agreed to buy Paras Pharmaceuticals for about Rs.3,260 crore, acquiring Actis’s shareholding. Actis made more than a threefold gain on its 2006 investment in Paras, Bloomberg reported in December 2010.
Balaji Wafers, with revenues of about Rs.1,000 crore in 2013-14, initiated talks with PE and strategic investors last year to raise capital. Founded in 1976, Balaji Wafers is one of the country’s largest makers of potato chips. The regional brand has a presence in states such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Goa. The company claims it has a 60-65% share in the wafers and snack market in Western India, and is eyeing entry into the Northern and Southern markets.

The stake sale is in line with the company’s plan to generate sales of Rs.1,500 crore by 2015, Keyur Virani, director of Balaji Wafers, told Mint in July.
Investors can’t get enough of the food business in India. In February, Mint reported that three private equity firms, Kedaara Capital, TA Associates and Carlyle, were separately in talks for a substantial stake in the bakery business of Cremica Group, a Ludhiana-based company.
Last month, Singapore based agri-commodity firm Wilmar International picked up 27.5% stake in the first phase of a larger deal in Shree Renuka Sugars for Rs.517 crore. In January, WestBridge Capital Partners bought nearly 25% stake in DFM Foods, which makes salted snacks under the Crax brand, from its promoters for over $10 million (around Rs.60 crore). The same month, DSG Consumer Partners invested Rs.10 crore to buy an undisclosed stake in Vadodara-based freeze dried agricultural products company Saraf Foods Ltd. In January, Europe’s biggest dairy company Groupe Lactalis SA agreed to acquire a controlling stake in Tirumala Milk Products Pvt. Ltd for $250 million to $300 million.

Private equity and strategic investors have always been keen on these firms, said Siddharth Bafna, partner and head of the corporate finance and transaction services practice at Lodha and Co. Processed foods is a well-accepted growth story and the demand for such products is expected to only go up in the future, he added
“Indians consume a very small percentage of processed food as compared to the rest of the world. With an increase in nuclear families and working women, longer work hours and a younger population, consumption of these products will only go up,” Bafna said. “There have just not been enough investment opportunities available as successful processed or packaged food brands have very healthy cash flows and the need for capital is typically limited.”


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2014 at 12:50pm

My thoughts on Balaji Wafers Stake dilution article :

 

As per investment banking sources, Balaji was in talks for stake sale since last July-August 2013, first, feelers were sent to MNC peers, but talks didn't materialse on two counts -- they wanted larger controlling stake and they were unwilling to pay hefty valuations which promoters were demanding for a minority stake -- on failure of such talks, PE investors came into picture and talks seem to have reached final stages.

One thing needs to remembered that, Balaji Wafers, is the strongest snack food player in India if you consider their operating matrix -- they operate at highest EBITDA and PAT margins in the industry and that too inspite of them being largely regional player instad of Pan-India player. If you consider just last 4 years' average EBITDA then its 18.55 % which is highest in the industry. Such EBITDA margins have come with more than doubling of scale from just 387 cr. in FY10 to 913 cr. in FY13. This is a great company in which every PE investor would love to invest in with just 69 cr. gross debt against 159 cr. held as cash & FDs as at FY13 and strongest distribution network in western India, particularly Gujarat. I am not surprised in senior promoter Mr. Chandubhai Virani leaving stake dilution decision to his next generation as there is no financial need for this company to dilute any sort of stake.

As reported in the article of more than 4 times TTM (FY13) EV/Sales valuation seems reasonable for this company.

Rgds.



Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 22/Mar/2014 at 4:00pm

Mentioned below is 3 Years' CAGR in Sales attained by 8 major Indian Organised Snack Food companies. Key thing to note here is that these eight companies constitute ~70 % of Indian Sweet & Savoury Snacks Market :




3 Years' CAGR in Sales



Pepsi

[ Snacks ]

19.93 %




Haldiram

[ All Geographies Combined ]

25.58 %




Balaji Wafers

33.15 %




ITC

N.A.




Bikaji Foods

28.39 %




Bikanervala

17.29 %




Prataap Snacks

30.56 %




DFM Foods

46.13 %





Also interesting to note here is the EBITDA & PAT Margins (4 years' Avg. & of FY13) of each company :





4 Years' Average

FY13




Pepsi

[ Snacks ]

EBIT Margin


PAT Margin



4.52 %


N.A.



2.93 %


N.A.




Haldiram

[ All Geographies Combined ]


EBIDTA Margin


PAT Margin



10.61 %


5.79 %



10.03 %


5.36 %




Balaji Wafers


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin



18.55 %


12.07 %



19.45 %


12.41 %




ITC


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin




N.A.


N.A.




N.A.


N.A.




Bikaji Foods


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin



7.39 %


3.71 %



7.49 %


4.07 %




Bikanervala


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin



8.33 %


4.02 %



8.53 %


4.26 %




Prataap Snacks


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin



8.83 %


4.63 %



7.99 %


3.72 %




DFM Foods


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin



11.94 %


5.42 %



10.58 %


2.80 %



Key things to note from above :


DFM Foods has registered highest 3 Years' CAGR in Sales over FY10-FY13. It has outperformed all the peers quite handsomely.


EBITDA margins of DFM are at par with Haldiram & just second best to Balaji Wafers which is a very satisfying thing. Its important to note here that Haldiram's major sales come from Sweets & Namkeen and Extruded Snacks forms only a small portion of its sales. Similarly, Balaji Wafers' major Sales contributors are Chips (Wafers) & Namkeens. Its only Pepsico & Prataap which have major contributions coming from Extruded Snacks.


DFM Foods' Scale of Operation (FY13) is smallest amongst all the companies mentioned with Pepsico & Haldiram at 2500+ cr. and Balaji at 913 cr. with ITC, Bikaji, Bikanervala and Prataap at 500 cr., 325.5 cr., 350.2 cr., and 343.8 cr. respectively.


Out of these 8 companies, Prataap has got Sequoia backing (51 % stake), Bikaji recently got Lighthouse PE backing (25 % stake), DFM got Westbridge backing (24.90 % stake) and Balaji is in final talks with Capital International PE (15 % stake). Pepsico and ITC are capable conglomerate while Haldiram has each family fraction catering to respective region. Its only bikanervala which is the weakest amongst the lot that is looking for a funding partner since last many years but has not got anyone yet.


Since four out of eight companies have got (or about to get) PE investors, its worthwhile to note here the valuations at which each respective PE-investment deal was stuck :




EV/Sales TTM

EV/EBITDA TTM

PE Deal Happened in Year





Prataap Snacks

1.05

15.47

2011





Bikaji Foods

1.56

20.82

2014





DFM Foods

1.41

13.32

2014





Balaji Wafers

4.37

22.50

Most Likely in 2014





Posted By: footy
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2014 at 11:30am
Why are ITC details not available?


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2014 at 12:43pm
Originally posted by footy

Why are ITC details not available?
 
ITC doesn't give snack foods details separate and includes it in 'FMCG-Others' category which includes other segments like biscuit, flour, etc. thats why separate details of Bingo, its snack food brand is not available. However, in its AR2013, it has mentioned Bingo's annual sales to be worth 500 cr. and thats why we know the scale of its snack food business for FY13.
 
Feel free to get back in case of any further query.
 
Rgds.


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2014 at 12:45pm

Anand Rathi initiates coverage on DFM Foods Ltd. with a Buy in its report dated 21st March 2014. (Target Price Rs. 460)

Excerpts from the report :
 
-- A Play on the Growing Ready-to-Eat Snacks Market

DFM is a niche player, focused on ready-to-eat snacks for children.

Over FY1993-2013 this segment has exhibited a 15% CAGR.

■ Increase in ad-spend over FY09-13 from 4.3% of net sales to 4.6% has helped the company improve pricing power and thus the EBITDA margin from 5% to 9.3%

■ It has aggressive plans to expand its distribution network. It plans to expand retail outlets to 0.4m by end-FY16, from 0.2m in FY13. It also plans to expand distribution over FY15-16 to the Canteen Stores Department, modern trade and the Railways

■ We initiate coverage with a Buy, and a price target of `460, at a PE of 25x FY16e

Key risks. Increase in raw material prices and competitive pressures



Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 29/Mar/2014 at 1:36pm

Some additional Data Points for members' ref. :


( Growth YoY )

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009







Indian Packaged Food Segment

19.50 %

18.98 %

17.87 %

19.26 %

15.71 %







Indian Sweet & Savoury Snacks Segment

24.94 %

23.92 %

26.99 %

30.63 %

24.93 %







Western Snacks

25.75 %

25.15 %

27.42 %

32.79 %

22.99 %







Traditional Snacks

23.42 %

21.90 %

26.35 %

27.07 %

28.06 %







Chips / Crisps

23.37 %

23.06 %

29.14 %

33.62 %

29.63 %







Extruded Snacks Segment

28.69 %

27.83 %

25.29 %

31.78 %

15.71 %



 

 

Projected Growth :

 


( Growth YoY )

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018


Volume Growth :



Chips / Crisps

( Volume Growth )


11.64 %


10.82 %


9.19 %


8.22 %


7.96 %







Extruded Snacks

( Volume Growth )

19.54 %

17.92 %

16.42 %

15.49 %

15.10 %


Value Growth :



Chips / Crisps

( factoring-in normal price increase

based on price trend till 2013 )


20.78 %


19.38 %


17.21 %


15.90 %


15.10 %







Extruded Snacks Segment

( factoring-in normal price increase

based on price trend till 2013 )

26.57 %

24.54 %

22.62 %

21.31 %

20.65 %


 

 

 

 

 


Key Players in Indian Sweet & Savoury Snacks Segment

( Note – These Players together control 90 % + marketshare of the segment )




Large Players

( by FY13 Annual Sales )






` 500 cr. +


Pepsico


Balaji Wafers


Haldiram


ITC








Mid-Size Players

( by FY13 Annual Sales )






` 200 – 500 cr.

Parle Products


Prataap Snacks


Bikaji Foods


Bikanervala


DFM Foods






Small Players

( by FY13 Annual Sales )



` 100 – 200 cr.

Parle Agro


Cavinkare


Venkataramana Food Specialities


Agrotech Foods







Micro Players

( by FY13 Annual Sales )





` 1 – 100 cr.

Perfetti Van Melle


Jabson Food


Euro India Fresh Foods


Atop Food Products





 

 


Crax Brand Key Marketshare Figures



Sweet & Savoury

Snacks Segment

Extruded Snacks Segment

Corn-based Extruded Snacks Segment





CRAX MarketShare

( 2013 )

2.03 %

5.61 %

9.19 %



 

 

 

 

----------------


Extruded Snacks Marketshare Trend of Key Brands



2013

2012

2011

2010

2009







Kurkure & Cheetos

( Pepsico )

52.7 %

55.2 %

53.8 %

49.2 %

52.9 %







Bingo

( ITC )

10.8 %

10 %

11 %

11.9 %

11.5 %







Yellow Diamond

( Prataap )

5.9 %

4.7 %

4.6 %

4.9 %

4.8 %







CRAX

( DFM )

5.6 %

5.3 %

5.1 %

4.1 %

3.9 %







TakaTak

( Haldiram )

4.3 %

4.3 %

4.2 %

3.8 %

3.3 %







Peppy & Piknik

( Venkataramana )

2.7 %

3,3 %

4.0 %

4.8 %

6.0 %






Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 02/Apr/2014 at 2:12pm
DFM gets aggressive in taking on competition.......after Holi toys, launches CRAX Corn Rings with rechargeable glowing toys......will start promoting this attractive toy package with specific ads........marketing circles indicate more such initiatives from the brand mainly circling around innovation in free gifts with new ads for every novelty .....a nice strategy to retain and attract more of its target consumers.......

This initiative has coincided well with Prataap Snacks getting aggressive in Traditional Snacks (Namkeens) space and lowering its marketing concentration on YD Rings.

Rgds.


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 05/Apr/2014 at 2:43pm
My Q4FY14 & FY14 estimates for DFM Foods :
 
 



( fig. in Rs. cr. )

Q4FY14e

Q4FY13




Revenue

6168

56.87




EBITDA

5.35.8

5.03




PAT

1.31.8

1.06








( fig. in Rs. cr. )

FY14e

FY13




Revenue

261268

225.24




EBITDA

23.423.9

21.21




PAT

7.88.3

6.31



 



Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 15/Apr/2014 at 11:45am

Bikaji Foods PE-deal details out.....The valuation part of the deal is noteworthy as it is much higher than earlier reported and the stake dilution is almost half than earlier reported in press......

Majumdar & Partners acted as advisors for the deal where Lighthouse has picked up 12.5 % equity stake in Bikaji for INR 90 cr.....Bikaji (FY13 Revenues = 325.50 cr. & EBITDA = 24.39 cr.) is valued at an EV of INR 739 cr. much higher than previously anticipated of 499 cr.

Valuation multiples at which deal is stuck :

EV/Sales (TTM) = 2.27

EV/EBITDA (TTM) = 30.29

 

just to draw a comparison :

3 Years' CAGR in Sales of Bikaji is 28.39 %  v/s  DFM's 3 Years' CAGR in Sales at 46.13 %

3 Years' CAGR in EBITDA of Bikaji is 35.01 %  v/s  DFM's 3 Years' CAGR in EBITDA at 40.31 %

4 Years' Average EBITDA Margin of Bikaji is 7.39 % v/s DFM's 4 Years' Average EBITDA Margin at 11.94 %.

Contribution of Savoury Snacks to FY13 Revenues of Bikaji is 89 %  v/s  Contribution of Savoury Snacks to FY13 Revenues of DFM at 100 %

 

 

Seems Westbridge has stuck a good deal in DFM (@ TTM - EV/Sales = 1.41 & EV/EBITDA = 13.32) and could very well fetch good returns from it. The Bikaji-Lighthouse deal seems to be a comforting news for DFM shareholders.

Rgds.



Posted By: Arshavin23
Date Posted: 16/Apr/2014 at 9:01pm
Mahesh,

Should we not compare the debt levels of both companies to get a better perspective on the valuation multiples? Do you have any info on Bikaji's debt-equity ratio?

I am also analyzing DFMs expansion strategy and have a few points to make...

1. They are simultaneously expanding in the eastern as well as the western part of the country.

2. For a product such as Crax which has a very low value to weight ratio (Rs 5 pack for 17 grams), the farther the consumers are from the manufacturing plant, the higher will be the transportation costs and growth will be at lower margins.

3. Is it not better for the company to expand by taking on one territory at a time? Had they expanded only in the west or east, would they not have experienced some economies of scale? A denser distribution network in one territory would have led to reduced transportation costs as well as lesser overheads when compared to expanding in two territories that are geographically apart.

Let me have your thoughts.

Rgds.


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2014 at 12:21pm
Some facts about Bikaji Foods :

 
--Business Model of Bikaji revolves around Traditional Snacks business with 77 % of FY13 revenues coming from sales of Bhujia & Namkeen.
 
--Rajasthan contributes 50 % of the sales turnover while exports contribute less than 1 % of FY13 revenues.


--Sales are primarily made via 400 distributors & C&F agents.


--Goods are sold on almost cash basis but its debtor level (FY13 = 7.98 cr.) is higher than that we have seen in DFM (DFM at 0.01 % of sales v/s Bikaji at 2.45 % of sales). This is because of the short credit period extended to few large distributors by Bikaji v/s having cash settlement system with almost all distributors by DFM.


--Asset Turnover of Bikaji as at FY13 is 3.74 whereas the same for FY12 was 3.06 and for FY11 it was 2.42 (in the range of 2.40-2.42 for FY10, FY09 & FY08)


--Meaningful Outsourcing of production is almost absent in all previous years (traded goods less than 0.2 % of sales) except in FY13 where it seems to have inched up to 0.86 % of sales.


--D/E for Bikaji as at FY13 is at 0.63.


--Bikaji has purchased land in RIICO Industrial Area and is looking at doubling its production capacity by FY16. Project cost is 100 cr. for which 90 cr. is raised from Lighthouse PE Fund by diluting 12.5 % equity stake. This is historically most substantial CAPEX being incurred by the company.


--Since FY09, Bikaji has also expanded into a sort of fast-food outlet format by setting up Food Junction in Malad, Mumbai. So far it has four such outlets in mumbai and two more planned to be opened in Andheri & Jaipur Airport. Its revenue from these outlets is not meaningful.

 

Feel free to get back to me in case of any further query.

Rgds. 


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2014 at 1:42pm
Originally posted by Arshavin23

Mahesh,

Should we not compare the debt levels of both companies to get a better perspective on the valuation multiples? Do you have any info on Bikaji's debt-equity ratio?

I am also analyzing DFMs expansion strategy and have a few points to make...

1. They are simultaneously expanding in the eastern as well as the western part of the country.

2. For a product such as Crax which has a very low value to weight ratio (Rs 5 pack for 17 grams), the farther the consumers are from the manufacturing plant, the higher will be the transportation costs and growth will be at lower margins.

3. Is it not better for the company to expand by taking on one territory at a time? Had they expanded only in the west or east, would they not have experienced some economies of scale? A denser distribution network in one territory would have led to reduced transportation costs as well as lesser overheads when compared to expanding in two territories that are geographically apart.

Let me have your thoughts.

Rgds.
 
 
 
Hi Arshavin,
 
Have provided info on Bikaji's D/E ratio in my last post you can refer that.
 
On your points :
 
Yes...farther the manufacturing location higher will be the transportation costs.....this is the reason why you find 9MFY14 EBITDA margins under pressure as contribution from West and East has increased as % of sales.....
 
On was it better if co. would have expanded into one territory only and saturated the distribution presesnce there --- theoretically Yes but practically NO ----I will explain you why ---- when you enter a new territory, you have to face new challenges not only on taste front but also competition and personnel front.......so, if your goal is to expand aggressively you can't spend undue time in expanding and gauging response in that territory before expanding to other --- in such time business dynamics might change in the territory you left over to expand afterwards and you might face more difficulty in expanding there which was easier today.....
 
Now, to explain you specifically, DFM would most probably have a single manufacturing presence for serving both West & East India......So, it was logical for it to expand in both the territories at the same time --- Western market is having as larger scope as Northern India but there competitive intensity is far higher, especially in the form of Yellow Diamond -- Eastern market is relatively small but competitive intensity is relatively lower too --- channel checks suggest, CRAX has done relatively far better in Eastern Indian than Western India if we compare the same timeframe after launch --- but, that doesn't mean you can ignore one geography......
 
So far the company has done all right moves.....key monitorable will be company's sales & manufacturing expansion plans.....remember South is still out of the picture.....will be awaiting details on future CAPEX.
 
Rgds.
 
 
 
 
 
 


Posted By: Arshavin23
Date Posted: 17/Apr/2014 at 11:49am
Thanks for the reply Mahesh,

They have the manufacturing infrastructure in place and now it's all about effective execution of their distribution and marketing strategy.


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 28/Apr/2014 at 11:53am

Packaged salty snacks topped FMCG sales in 2013: Report

By Ratna Bhushan, ET Bureau | 29 Apr, 2014, 04.00AM IST

 

NEW DELHI: Indians consumed more packaged salty snacks than any other fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) in 2013, as they emerged as the fastest growing grocery category, according to data compiled by researcher Nielsen. 

To drive growth in an otherwise uncertain consumption environment, snacks makers such as PepsiCo, ITC and Parle introduced low price points, stepped up distribution in smaller cities and towns and made their products to suit regional taste preferences. Others such as Haldiram, Balaji, Garden, Bikano, Yellow Diamond and DFM Foods' Crax, on the other hand, are playing on low price points, local flavours and quick turnaround time in churning out innovations. Snack sales are usually immune to seasonal fluctuations, which often affect beverages. 

"Conversion from loose to packaged, new formats, and convenient price points of Rs5 and Rs10 are key differentiators driving this category," said ITC Divisional chief executive (Foods) Chitranjan Dar. According to him, ITC's newer innovations under its flagship salty snack brands, Mad Angles and Tangles, have been key sales drivers. 

Salty snacks were the fourth fastest growing category in 2012, but last calendar year they topped all other fast-growing categories such as packaged rice and diapers. Pace of growth, however, slowed down from 29 per cent to 25 per cent over the past two years. That still was far quicker than the 9.4 per cent growth in 2013 sales posted by the overall FMCG sector, where the pace has slowed from the previous year's 18 per cent, according to Nielsen data. 


 

The salty snacks market was worthRs12,679 crore last year. A low-cost business compared with those like chips or biscuits, salty snacks operate on limited barriers to entry. Five of the top six fastest growing FMCG categories in 2013 were foods — snacks, chocolate, atta, non-refined oil and rice — all in excess of 20%. Popular items such as biscuits posted just 7 per cent growth, while detergent sales rose 10 per cent and soaps expanded 4 per cent. 

"Snacks isn't a me-too product... there's a value addition," said Shirish Pardeshi, executive director of investment banking as well as head of consumer and consumer services practice at Anand Rathi Advisors. PepsiCo, the market leader for salty snacks, had launched several local flavours under popular brand Kurkure. Chief executive Indra Nooyi projects about twothirds of PepsiCo's revenue growth to come from snack sales, driven by emerging markets. PepsiCo's senior director, foods marketing, Vidur Vyas said affordable indulgence and convenience were boosting growth in the category. 

"Traditional namkeens and localisation have been a crucial factor in driving category growth," said Parle Products group product manager BK Rao. Parle's first attempt to enter the category over three years back wasn't successful but it re-entered a year later and has met with good response, Rao said. The maker of Hide & Seek and Monaco biscuits sells namkeens under the brand Parle and FullToss. 

The unorganised snacks market remains undocumented, but industry players conversion from loose to branded is happening rapidly. Three years back, Pepsi-Co restructured its foods division to set up a mass-priced, low-cost traditional business model under its Lehar brand, mainly to fight off smaller brands. 



Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 30/Apr/2014 at 1:24pm
 



Key Takeaways from the Report – Industry Perspective :




  • 'Indian Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks' segment has grown at a CAGR of 26.2 % over 2008-2013 (in value terms) to become the third fastest growing segment of Indian Packaged Food Industry.




  • The segment is categorised into 'Western Snacks' and 'Traditional Snacks' which together give it a ( 2013 ) market size of ` 110.68 bn. 'Western Snacks' comprises of Chips/Crisps & Extruded Snacks (like Rings, Puffs, etc.) whereas 'Traditional Snacks' comprises of Namkeens, Bhujia, Papad, Khakhra, Nuts, Sweets, etc.




  • Only Twenty Seven organised players contribute to 95 % of the segment sales with Nine Players controlling ~71 % of the marketshare. These Nine players include :

    Pepsico, Haldiram, Balaji Wafers, ITC, Bikaji Foods,

    Bikanervala, Prataap Snacks, DFM Foods & Apricot Foods.

    [ Note :- Financial Profile of each of these nine companies is included in this report ]




  • Extruded Snacks as a category stands out amongst all other categories having registered highest volume growth over 2008-2013 ( CAGR = 21.9 % ) and its projected 16.9 % ( CAGR ) volume growth over 2013-2018 which is again highest in the segment.




  • Only Six companies control 82 % of the Extruded Snacks market. Pepsico is the leader in the space whereas Prataap Snacks, DFM Foods and Haldiram are noteworthy marketshare gainers over last ten years.




  • Opportunity is huge ahead of every serious player in Indian Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks segment because of the fact that Indians are natural snacks' consumers, and entire 124 crore Indian public is served by only Twenty Seven major branded savoury snacks players atpresent. Rural markets are still unpenetrated and lower price points ( ` 2, ` 5 & ` 10 ) prevalent in the segment could drive aggressive sales in rural India.




  • Competition is likely to intensify going forward as more of the organised business groups enter into this space ( recent entry of Tobacco major Gopal Corporation is a case in point ) to grab their share of opportunity as also existing players make a dent in peers' stronghold by offering similar products with superior distribution and marketing reach.







Key Takeaways from the Report – Company Perspective :




CRAX Brand Key Marketshare Figures



Sweet & Savoury

Snacks Segment

Western Snacks Segment

Extruded Snacks Segment

Corn-based Extruded Snacks Segment






CRAX MarketShare

( 2013 )

2.03 %

2.79 %

5.61 %

9.19 %


Source :- Exemplar Research, Channel Checks, Euromonitor International, Company Reports



  • DFM Foods Ltd. via its 'CRAX' brand is a key player in Extruded Snacks category of Indian Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks segment.




  • Over last five years, company has gained significant marketshare of the category.




  • If we consider 3 Years' ( FY10-FY13 ) CAGR in Sales, then, DFM has outperformed industry as well as almost all of its peers quite handsomely :



3 Years' CAGR in Sales

( 2010-2013 )


Sweet & Savoury Snacks Segment

Pepsico

Haldiram

Balaji Wafers

Bikaji Foods

Bikanervala

Prataap Snacks

DFM Foods









25.26 %

19.93 %

25.82 %

33.15 %

28.39 %

17.29 %

30.56 %

46.13 %





  • Its main product offerings ( CRAX Corn Rings ) are targeted towards children of age group 6-12 years --- an isolation strategy which has done wonders for the company so far.




  • If we take into consideration DFM's key product offerings and its target audience, then, key competitors for it are Pepsico, Haldiram ( Extruded Snacks ), ITC, Prataap Snacks & Venkataramana Food Specialities.


    • As per our analysis, Prataap Snacks ( via its brand YD Rings ), as a peer, poses an immediate threat to DFM Foods because of its almost similar marketing strategy, same target audience, identical product USP and low margin business model.




    • Prataap has recently ( in 2013 ) commenced its Rings manufacturing plant ( technology from American Extrusion ) and is going all out to make a dent into DFM's ( CRAX Corn Rings ) marketshare. Aggressive marketing strategy is adopted by Prataap by getting associated with popular children tv show 'Chhota Bheem' and Mr. Amitabh Bachchan starrer children-oriented supernatural movie 'Bhootnath Returns'.




    • Medium-term Revenue Growth is not under threat for DFM because of an aggressively expanding market size itself as also unsaturated nature of company's Western & Eastern Sales presence. However, for this to happen, company has to expand its manufacturing capacities intime, fill the many gaps prevalent in its distribution network as also design a wise consumer-pulling marketing strategy.




    • EBITDA margins of the company might not show a significant improvement considering the fact that all its peers ( except Balaji Wafers ) operate at a lower EBITDA margin as also likely intensification of the competition in the space.



Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 30/Apr/2014 at 1:29pm
 

Industry --- Key Facts & Figures :



  • 'Packaged Food' segment is one of the fastest growing segment of Indian FMCG sector.



  • 'Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks' segment is the third fastest growing Indian Packaged Food segment. It has grown at a 5 Years' CAGR of 26.2 % over 2008-2013 ( in value terms ).


    • 'Western Snacks' and 'Traditional Snacks' are the two broad categories under Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks segment. Although, in volume terms, both the categories' contribution is almost equal ( 50.73 % v/s 49.27 % ), but, in value terms, Western Snacks dominate the space with 62.73 % share as at 2013.



    Chips/Crisps & Extruded Snacks (like puffs, rings, etc.) form 'Western Snacks' category whereas Namkeens, Bhujia, Papad, Khakhra, Nuts, Sweets, etc. form 'Traditional Snacks' category.


    • Only Twenty Seven organised players constitute 95 % of the total Indian Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks segment sales with Nine players dominating the space with 71 % of the marketshare.



    • Pepsico leads the race with 35.1 % marketshare (2013) with Haldiram ( all family fractions' geographies combined ) standing second at 23.5 % marketshare. Pepsico is a clear leader in 'Western Snacks' space whereas Haldiram dominates the 'Traditional Snacks' space.



    • Each of the two major players have seen their marketshare gradually decline because of the emergence of other strong players like ITC, Balaji Wafers, Prataap Snacks, Bikaji Foods and DFM Foods.





    Key Players in Indian Sweet & Savoury Snacks Segment

    ( Note – These Players together control 95 % marketshare of the segment )




    Large Players

    ( by FY13 Annual Sales )






    ` 500 cr. +


    Pepsico


    Balaji Wafers


    Haldiram


    ITC








    Mid-Size Players

    ( by FY13 Annual Sales )






    ` 200 – 500 cr.

    Parle Products


    Prataap Snacks


    Bikaji Foods


    Bikanervala


    DFM Foods






    Small Players

    ( by FY13 Annual Sales )



    ` 100 – 200 cr.

    Parle Agro


    Cavinkare


    Venkataramana Food Specialities


    Agrotech Foods


    Apricot Foods







    Micro Players

    ( by FY13 Annual Sales )





    ` 1 – 100 cr.

    Perfetti Van Melle


    Samrat Namkeen


    Jabson Food


    Euro India Fresh Foods


    Atop Food Products


    Zee Foodex


    Chheda Specialities


    SKB Food Products


    Advance Tech Energy Edibles


    Melar Healthcare


    Priniti Foods


    Krushi Corporation


    Grove Ltd.


    Source :- Onground Research, Channel Checks, Company Reports, Rating Reports, Exemplar Research, Euromonitor International,




    • 'Extruded Snacks' as a category stands out amongst all other categories of Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks segment not only because of the highest volume growth registered by it over last 5 years ( 2008-2013 CAGR = 21.9 % ) but also because of its projected volume growth over 2013-2018 at a CAGR of 16.9 % which is highest amongst the segment.




    ( Growth YoY )

    2014

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018


    Volume Growth :



    Chips / Crisps

    ( Volume Growth )


    11.64 %


    10.82 %


    9.19 %


    8.22 %


    7.96 %







    Extruded Snacks

    ( Volume Growth )

    19.54 %

    17.92 %

    16.42 %

    15.49 %

    15.10 %


    Value Growth :



    Chips / Crisps

    ( factoring-in normal price increase

    based on price trend till 2013 )


    20.78 %


    19.38 %


    17.21 %


    15.90 %


    15.10 %







    Extruded Snacks Segment

    ( factoring-in normal price increase

    based on price trend till 2013 )

    26.57 %

    24.54 %

    22.62 %

    21.31 %

    20.65 %

    Source :- Euromonitor International, Exemplar Research

     

     

     

    • Six companies dominate Extruded Snacks category by controlling 82 % market as at 2013. They include Pepsico, ITC, Prataap Snacks, DFM Foods, Haldiram & Vekataramana Food Specialities.



    • Pepsico is the leader with its Kurkure & Cheetos brands controlling 52.7 % marketshare ( 2013 ) of the category ; ITC, with its brand Bingo occupies second slot ( 10.8 % marketshare ) while Prataap, with its brand Yellow Diamond ( 5.9 % marketshare ) and DFM Foods with its brand CRAX ( 5.6 % marketshare ) occupying third and fourth position respectively.



    • If we talk of specific brands, then, over last five years ( 2008-2013 ), CRAX ( DFM Foods ), Yellow Diamond ( Prataap Snacks ) and TakaTak ( Haldiram ) have gained significant marketshare at the expense of Peppy & Piknik ( Venkataramana Food ) and other smaller players.








    Extruded Snacks Marketshare Trend of Key Brands



    2013

    2012

    2011

    2010

    2009







    Kurkure & Cheetos

    ( Pepsico )

    52.7 %

    55.2 %

    53.8 %

    49.2 %

    52.9 %







    Bingo

    ( ITC )

    10.8 %

    10 %

    11 %

    11.9 %

    11.5 %







    Yellow Diamond

    ( Prataap )

    5.9 %

    4.7 %

    4.6 %

    4.9 %

    4.8 %







    CRAX

    ( DFM )

    5.6 %

    5.3 %

    5.1 %

    4.1 %

    3.9 %







    TakaTak

    ( Haldiram )

    4.3 %

    4.3 %

    4.2 %

    3.8 %

    3.3 %







    Peppy & Piknik

    ( Venkataramana )

    2.7 %

    3,3 %

    4.0 %

    4.8 %

    6.0 %

     



    • Key driver for robust growth of Extruded Snacks segment has been lower price points ( ` 5 & ` 10 ) which, coupled with innovative promotional activities, have made the segment extremely popular, especially amongst school going children.



    • Consumption pattern suggests that Brand Loyalty is absent in this segment ; however, brand preference exists to a certain extent. Product Loyalty is completely absent because of which companies need to continuously innovate to offer more flavours as also engage consumers in varied ways.



    'Taste' & 'Price Point' are the key determinants of purchase decision of consumers in the segment. For products targeted at children, 'Gift' (bundled with each product packet) is the third most important determinant of the purchase decision.

     

     

     

    • Assessment of Competition :




      • Pepsico with its brands Lay's & Uncle Chipps in Chips/Crisps segment (Western Snacks) , Kurkure & Cheetos in Extruded Snacks segment (Western Snacks) & Lehar in Traditional Snacks segment is a clear leader in Indian Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks segment. However, if we observe its overall marketshare of the segment over last 10 years, then, it seems to have lost considerable ground :


      Pepsico Marketshare Trend

      in Indian Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks Segment


      2013

      2012

      2011

      2010

      2009

      2008

      2007

      2006

      2005

      2004











      35.1 %

      36.5 %

      36.7 %

      37.4 %

      39.3 %

      40.1 %

      41.1 %

      46.5 %

      45.7 %

      44.3 %


      Source :- Euromonitor International, Exemplar Research




      • In contrast, Haldiram as a group has more or less maintained its marketshare to become the second largest player of Indian Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks segment :


      Haldiram Marketshare Trend ( all family fractions' geographies combined )

      in Indian Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks Segment


      2013

      2012

      2011

      2010

      2009

      2008

      2007

      2006

      2005

      2004











      23.5 %

      23.7 %

      24.1 %

      24.1 %

      24.2 %

      23.0 %

      21.5 %

      20.8 %

      21.3 %

      21.4 %


      Source :- Euromonitor International, Exemplar Research


      It is worthwhile to note here one important fact regarding Haldiram --- although for calculation of marketshare figures, 'Haldiram' as a brand is considered, but, the rights for 'Haldiram' brand are clearly demarcated amongst different family fractions with each family fraction's respective company/ies handling manufacturing, sales and distribution of 'Haldiram' brand of products for the respective geography :


      Geography

      Family Fraction

      Respective Companies




      North India

      Manohar & Madhusudan Agarwal

      Haldiram Snacks Pvt. Ltd.

      Haldiram Manufacturing Co. Pvt. Ltd.




      West & South India

      Shiv Kishan Agarwal

      Haldiram Foods International Pvt. Ltd.

      Komal Foods Pvt. Ltd.




      East India

      Prabhu Shankar Agarwal

      Haldiram Bhujiawala Ltd.






      In this report, for assessing financial and segmental positioning of 'Haldiram', figures of all the above-mentioned five companies are taken as one single consolidated entity.






      • All the other players in the segment command a marketshare in single digits ; however, their relative growth over the years is noteworthy and exceptional which suggests :

            an expanding overall marketsize,

            gradual shift towards organised from unorganised, &

            also explains the marketshare-loss suffered by the leader of the segment (Pepsico).


      Key players that have gained significant marketshare over last ten years include ITC, Balaji Wafers, Prataap Snacks, DFM Foods, Bikaji Foods, Parle & Apricot Foods.






      • Let's now assess the financial profile of nine companies which together control 71 % marketshare of Indian Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks segment. Here we will look at :


              Actual Revenue & YoY Revenue Growth for each fiscal over FY10-FY13,

              3 Years' CAGR in Sales (Revenue) achieved by each player, and


              EBITDA & PAT Margins – 4 Years' Average as well as of FY13.






      Comapnies covered are :

      Pepsico,

      Haldiram (all family fractions' gepgraphies combined),

      Balaji Wafers,

      ITC,

      Bikaji Foods,

      Bikanervala,

      Prataap Snacks,

      Apricot Foods,

      DFM Foods.



Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 30/Apr/2014 at 1:34pm
 


FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10






Pepsico

[ Snacks ]

YoY Growth


( Actual Revenue )



14.13 %


( 2546.81 cr. )



23.94 %


( 2231.46 cr. )



21.92 %


( 1800.33 cr. )



N.A.


( 1476.54 cr. )






Haldiram

[ All Geographies Combined ]


YoY Growth


( Actual Revenue )



22.36 %


( 2936.48 cr. )



29.29 %


( 2399.74 cr. )



25.89 %


( 1856.01 cr. )



25.88 %


( 1474.29 cr. )






Balaji Wafers


YoY Growth


( Actual Revenue )



28.19 %


( 913.58 cr. )



31.36 %


( 712.67 cr. )



40.18 %


( 542.53 cr. )



N.A.


( 387.01 cr. )






ITC


YoY Growth


( Actual Revenue )




N.A.


( 500 cr. )




N.A.




N.A.




N.A.






Bikaji Foods


YoY Growth


( Actual Revenue )



32.54 %


( 325.50 cr. )



31.38 %


( 245.57 cr. )



21.53 %


( 186.91 cr. )



33.91 %


( 153.79 cr. )






Bikanervala


YoY Growth


( Actual Revenue )



25.23 %


( 350.25 cr. )



24.93 %


( 279.68 cr. )



3.13 %


( 223.86 cr. )



N.A.


( 217.05 cr. )






Prataap Snacks


YoY Growth


( Actual Revenue )



33.41 %


( 343.80 cr. )



35.93 %


( 257.69 cr. )



22.72 %


( 189.57 cr. )



54.16 %


( 154.47 cr. )






Apricot Foods


YoY Growth


( Actual Revenue )



36.04 %


( 107.81 cr. )



N.A.


( 79.25 cr. )



N.A.





N.A.








DFM Foods


YoY Growth


( Actual Revenue )



32.94 %


( 225.24 cr. )



41.37 %


( 169.42 cr. )



66.02 %


( 119.84 cr. )



35.34 %


( 72.18 cr. )

 
 
 
----------------------------------
 


4 Years' Average

FY13




Pepsico

[ Snacks ]

EBIT Margin


PAT Margin



4.52 %


N.A.



2.93 %


N.A.




Haldiram

[ All Geographies Combined ]


EBIDTA Margin


PAT Margin



10.61 %


5.79 %



10.03 %


5.36 %




Balaji Wafers


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin



18.55 %


12.07 %



19.45 %


12.41 %




ITC


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin




N.A.


N.A.




N.A.


N.A.




Bikaji Foods


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin



7.39 %


3.71 %



7.49 %


4.07 %




Bikanervala


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin



8.33 %


4.02 %



8.53 %


4.26 %




Prataap Snacks


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin



8.83 %


4.63 %



7.99 %


3.72 %




Apricot Foods


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin



9.51 % *


5.13 % *



8.95 %


4.90 %




DFM Foods


EBITDA Margin


PAT Margin



11.94 %


5.42 %



10.58 %


2.80 %

 
 
--------------------------------------------
 

Key things to note from above :



  • Haldiram's revenue figures optically seem higher than Pepsico because, they include sales from other sources like Dairy items, Milk, Ghee, Syrups, Squashes, Dry-Fruits as well as Restaurant sales which are not part of 'Sweet & Savoury Snacks' sales. To cite here an example, given below is the segmentwise sales breakup of Haldiram for FY13 :



Haldiram Segmentwise Sales Breakup

( FY13 )


Segment

FY13 Revenue



Savoury Snacks

` 1879 cr.



Sweets

` 602 cr.



Others

` 455 cr.



Total

` 2936 cr.


Source :- Approximate Breakup Data derived from Company Reports, Rating Reports



If we go further down into the breakup of 'Savoury Snacks' segment sales, then, Haldiram's dominance in 'Traditional Snacks' segment becomes evident :





Haldiram Savoury Snacks Sales Breakup

( FY13 )


Sub-Segment

FY13 Revenue



Western Snacks

` 191 cr.



Traditional Snacks

` 1688 cr.



Total

` 1879 cr.


Source :- Approximate Breakup Data derived from Company Reports, Rating Reports



This is in sharp contrast to Pepsico which derives majority of its sales from 'Western Snacks' segment.





  • Similarly, Bikaji & Bikanervala revenue figures also include sales from other sources, albeit to a smaller extent ; a segmentwise breakup of Bikaji's FY13 revenue is provided below for reference :



Bikaji Segmentwise Sales Breakup

( FY13 )


Segment

FY13 Revenue



Savoury Snacks

` 280 cr.



Sweets

` 33 cr.



Others

` 12.50 cr.



Total

` 325.50 cr.


Source :- Approximate Breakup Data derived from Company Reports, Rating Reports



  • Balaji Wafers has emerged as the strongest player over last 5 years by growing aggressively and eating into Pepsico & ITC's marketshares. Balaji atpresent commands 8.3 % marketshare in the segment and has a very sound financial profile which could enable it to continue to outperform peers in future too. Balaji operates at highest EBITDA & PAT margins amongst the peers.




  • Prataap Snacks with its 'Yellow Diamond' brand and DFM Foods with its 'CRAX' brand have also made a dent in Pepsico's marketshare by growing ahead of it over last five years. Prataap commands 3.1 % marketshare while DFM commands 2.03 % marketshare as at 2013.


  • DFM Foods has registered highest 3 Years' CAGR in Sales over FY10-FY13. It has outperformed all the peers quite handsomely.




  • EBITDA margins of DFM are at par with Haldiram & just second best to Balaji Wafers which is a very satisfying thing. Its important to note here that Haldiram's major sales come from Namkeens & Sweets ( 78 % as at FY13 ) and Chips & Extruded Snacks forms only a small portion of its sales ( 6.5 % of FY13 Sales ). Similarly, Balaji Wafers' major Sales contributors are Chips (Wafers) & Namkeens. Its only Pepsico & Prataap which have major contributions coming from Extruded Snacks.




  • DFM Foods' Scale of Operation (FY13) is smallest amongst all the companies mentioned (except Apricot Foods) with Pepsico & Haldiram at 2500+ cr. and Balaji at 913 cr. with ITC, Bikaji, Bikanervala and Prataap at 500 cr., 325.5 cr., 350.2 cr., and 343.8 cr. respectively.




  • Out of these nine companies, Prataap has got Sequoia backing (51 % stake), Bikaji recently got Lighthouse PE backing (12.5 % stake), DFM got Westbridge backing (24.90 % stake) and Balaji is in final talks with Capital International PE (15 % stake). Pepsico and ITC are capable conglomerate while Haldiram has each family fraction catering to respective region. Its only Bikanervala which is the weakest amongst the lot that is looking for a funding partner since last many years but has not got anyone yet.




  • Since four out of nine companies have got ( or about to get ) PE investors, its worthwhile to note here the valuations at which each respective PE-investment deal was stuck :




EV/Sales TTM

EV/EBITDA TTM

PE Deal Happened in Year





Prataap Snacks

1.05

15.47

2011





Bikaji Foods

2.27

30.29

2014





DFM Foods

1.41

13.32

2014





Balaji Wafers

4.37

22.50

Most Likely in 2014


Source :- Company Reports, Rating Reports, VCCircle Data, Company News, Media Articles, Exemplar Research


 
 


Assessing Competition specific to DFM Foods :




CRAX Brand Key Marketshare Figures



Sweet & Savoury

Snacks Segment

Western Snacks Segment

Extruded Snacks Segment

Corn-based Extruded Snacks Segment






CRAX MarketShare

( 2013 )

2.03 %

2.79 %

5.61 %

9.19 %


Source :- Exemplar Research, Channel Checks, Euromonitor International, Company Reports



  • Since the company of our concern is DFM Foods, let's evaluate competitive scenario with that regards.



  • DFM Foods over last many years sustained and outpaced competition by adopting a sound strategy of targeting a specific age group and concentrating on marketing & distribution strategies circling around only that age group. Entire competition's products were targeted to all age groups ( with majorly being adults above 15 years of age ) while DFM targeted children with age group 6-12 years.



  • DFM was the first company to include 'Free Gift' with every CRAX Corn Rings pack of ` 5 and this isolation ( i.e., catering to only specific audience ) strategy enabled it to distinguish itself from competition as also sustain and grow amidst strong financial power of Pepsico & ITC.



  • Since last year or so ( 2013 ), competition has become intense with Pepsico introducing similar ( to CRAX ) product 'Corn Cups' targeted at children and Yellow Diamond ( Prataap Snacks ) introducing 'YD Rings' – a replica of CRAX Corn Rings.



  • If we talk specifically for CRAX Corn Rings ( which contributes 84 % + to DFM's FY13 revenues ), then, Pepsico's 'Corn Cups' price point is higher while other players like ITC and Balaji cater to general audience rather than specific age group whereas Haldiram has a more diverse offering which is not in strict competition. Hence, the player which could threaten the market position of CRAX in real sense is Prataap Snacks and as per our analysis, it is this player which DFM will find it hard to compete with.



  • Prataap Snacks is taking on DFM Foods in-and-out by striking on every corner. It has introduced almost identical shaped product which is a replica of Crax Corn Rings and has offered it in almost every flavour in which CRAX is available ( except Pudina & Chatpata ).



  • In addition to offering similar product with similar flavours, what Prataap has done is it has targeted the same age group with same strategy of including 'Free Gift' with every pack. Prataap, in recent past, got associated with one of the most popular children tv show 'Chhota Bheem' and has introduced free gifts revolved around the main character of the show in its every YD Rings pack. In continuation with the same strategy, only recently, in April'2014, it got associated with Mr. Amitabh Bachchan starrer 'Bhootnath Returns' – a supernatural comedy movie and launched YD Rings promos with the trailer of the movie.



  • On distribution front, DFM & Prataap are almost neck-to-neck if we consider regionwise-spread, but, if we go into detail and talk specific, then distribution reach of Prataap is almost double that of DFM ( Prataap reaching ~ 5 lakh retail outlets v/s DFM's reach of ~ 2.15 lakh outlets ). However, each company has its strength and weaknesses in each region, with DFM far stronger in North India while Prataap a clear leader in West India. Visibility and availability of Prataap's Yellow Diamond is far better in West India ( relative to CRAX ) while in North India, DFM's CRAX is slightly ahead than Prataap.

    What Prataap has done is, in whichever areas it is present, it has covered as many retail outlets as possible which gives it great visibility ( only second to Lay's & Kurkure ) in respective areas. In contrast, DFM has focussed on covering more areas which gives it relatively low visibility relative to Prataap, especially in Western India.




  • To give a brief background of Prataap Snacks, it is a company backed by PE player Sequoia Capital which invested in it in 2011 and has so far invested ~ ` 180 cr. in the company. As per sources, it holds ~51 % equity stake in the entity as at FY13. It is worthwhile to note here the growth attained by Prataap over last seven years :



( fig. In ` cr. )

FY13

FY12

FY11

FY10

FY09

FY08

FY07









Prataap

343.80

257.69


189.57

154.47

100.20

66.60

35.50

DFM Foods


225.24

169.42

119.84

72.18

53.33

31.66

23.88


Sequoia invested in the company in May'2011





Three things to note here is that :


  • first, DFM started focussing aggressively on its Snack Food segment only from FY09,

  • second, Prataap aggressively introduced Rings in the market only from FY13 as previously its main focus was competing with Lay's, Kurkure & Cheetos ( by introducing YD Chips, Chulbule & Puffs ),

  • third, as at FY13, Extruded Snacks segment contributes ` 199 cr. to Prataap's Revenues as against ` 194 cr. to DFM's Revenues.












Conclusion :




  • Opportunity is huge ahead of every serious player in Indian Branded Sweet & Savoury Snacks segment because of the fact that Indians are natural snacks' consumers, and entire 124 crore Indian public is served by only Twenty Seven major branded savoury snacks players atpresent. Rural markets are still unpenetrated and lower price points ( ` 2, ` 5 & ` 10 ) prevalent in the segment could drive aggressive sales in rural India.



  • Sweet & Savoury Snacks Food Industry in itself is likely to grow handsomely at a CAGR of 19.4 % over 2013-2018 with its sub-segments like Extruded Snacks likely to outperform industry growth rate by growing at a CAGR of 23.1 % over 2013-2018.




  • Shift towards organised from unorganised segment is projected to continue, albeit at a gradual pace.



  • These factors combined, offers immense opportunity for each of the organised player in the segment to grow aggressively as they have done in the past. However, competition is likely to intensify going forward as more of the organised business groups enter into this space ( recent entry of Tobacco major Gopal Corporation is a case in point ) to grab their share of opportunity as also existing players make a dent in peers' stronghold by offering similar products with superior distribution and marketing reach.



  • If we look at last four years, then DFM Foods has outperformed almost all its peers, including Prataap Snacks as far as revenue growth is concerned.



  • DFM Foods is unlikely to face strong threat in the medium term as far revenue growth is concerned, provided it can expand manufacturing capacities intime. However, EBITDA margins could remain under pressure until a new product success is met on the lines of CRAX Corn Rings. This is because, all the efforts towards any sort of significant improvement in EBITDA margins will be met by cut-throat competition, especially from Prataap Snacks ( YD Rings ) which will put-in its every effort to fully utilise its Rings manufacturing plant which commenced operations in 2013.



  • DFM Foods definitely has a first mover advantage in the space and has a strong brand credibility amongst its target audience ( majorly in North India ). However, to counter Prataap's aggressive low margin model, DFM will need to innovate more on the product front and fill the many gaps prevalent in its distribution network as also design a wise consumer-pulling marketing strategy.



  • With a good PE player like Westbridge entering into DFM Foods by acquiring 24.90 % equity stake in it and promising an active involvement into formulating company's growth strategies by taking a board seat, DFM might be able to identify gaps more proactively and fill them with ease.



Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 02/May/2014 at 12:11pm
Board to consider Dividend

DFM Foods Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company will be held on May 12, 2014, inter alia, to consider the following:

1. To consider the accounts and recommendation of dividend on the equity shares for the year ended March 31, 2014.

2. To consider and take on record the audited financial results for the year ended March 31, 2014.



Posted By: Arshavin23
Date Posted: 02/May/2014 at 1:01pm
Thanks for the additional industry info Mahesh,

One thing that immediately catches the attention is the revenue per distribution outlet of DFM vs Prataap. Prataap's distribution reach is almost 2.3x that of DFM and you have mentioned higher visibility strategy of Prataap. However when I am comparing the FY'13 sales of the two companies, Prataap's sales is only 1.5x of DFM.

Are the distribution outlet numbers as on March 2013 or are they the latest numbers?

Based on the above, I feel DFMs distribution is more efficient in terms of revenue per outlet but one needs to understand the cause of the same. Is it because they have advertised more compared to Prataap and have higher brand pull? Or Is it because of absence of competition which will now increase going forward and thus one needs to monitor the revenue per distribution outlet?


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 02/May/2014 at 3:11pm
Yes Arshavin....the outlet nos. are of 2013 for Prataap and latest Dec.'2013 for DFM......As at  March'2013 retail outlet reach of DFM was 1.96 lakh outlets.....
 
Now, rgdg. revenue per outlet, there will be difference, because, DFM's focus is a single product CRAX Corn Rings and it is a relatively old player in the space so brand mindspace is higher, especially in North India....The difference that you notice is because of North India only -- to give specific nos. for FY13 :
 
from 1,15,000 outlets in North India it garnered 191 cr. revenues
from 64,000 outlets in West India it garnered 28 cr. revenues
from 17,000 outlets in East India it garnered 6 cr. revenues
 
 
For Prataap, although regionwise spread is not available, but, its overall per outlet revenue is higher than DFM's West & East India nos. but is lower than North India nos... Second point to note is Prataap is more of a diversified player wherein it has significant portion of revenues coming from Chips (~40 %) and even Namkeens contribute ~7 % to FY13 revenues.....third point to note is that Prataap has already invested heavily in building up capacities for each of its product lines and as on date it has the capacity to generate 700 cr. p.a. revnue without any new CAPEX.....
 
Hence, over last few years what Prataap did was it significantly ramped up its distribution and saturated each area in which it is present....Although theoretically higher revenue per outlet seems a good thing but for an expanding company its not that much significant....this is because, what it has to do is have a significantly large distribution network inplace so that on subsequent launches of its new products, this distribution network can give them a significant headstart.....Launch and part success of YD Rings is a case in point for Prataap....
 
To add, DFM never tried to compete with Pepsico or ITC but Prataap from the beginning took them head-on.....to counter the distribution reach of Pepsico, Prataap had to have significant presence and thats what it did so far.....YD Rings is only recently introduced, but Prataap's Chips is competing with Lay's since last 10 years and its Chulbule is competing with Kurkure since last 6 years....
 
To explain in more direct and simpler way....DFM in a way soft launched Kruchoids quite recently and post launch it went for an IMRB survey-report.....Today if you will do a ground check you will not find krunchoids presence on shelves in a significant way.....Its not that the launch has failed or something but there are two constraints --- first, capacity is not that huge to support an aggressive launch ----second, distribution reach is not that high to give the product a significant headstart.....In contrast, if DFM had a distribution reach and capacities like Prtaap, krunchoids would have garnered significant mindspace to offer a support to its main product CRAX Corn Rings....
 
To conclude, although current efficiency of DFM is good optically, but, in the long run it poses danger to aggressive revenue growth....what i will prefer is continued expansion in distribution, exploring of modern retail channel and expansion of capacities to let DFM grow aggressively as it has done in the past.....
 
Brand pull is there in the market for CRAX and the marketsize itself is expanding aggressively but grabing of opportunity at the right time has to happen and I am sure it will happen.....12th May results will be interesting to watch and post result concall commentry will be key.
 
Feel free to get back in case of any further query.
 
Rgds.


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 12/May/2014 at 10:36am
Q4 Results out......top line at 63.14 cr. inline with our estimates......Ebitda at 4.48 cr. lower than our estimates......PAT suffered on account of trademark amortisation charge worth 2.43 cr. rs.........

Looking at the balance sheet, debt down to ~38 cr. from FY13's 54 cr..........

ICD seems to be have been fully repaid which is a good sign......

Debtors at just 1 lakh down from 4 lakh of FY13 despite 17 % rise in revenues which suggests continued brand pull in marketplace...

Overall, P&L is ok on expected lines but balance sheet shows some early signs of strengthening......

Maintained dividend payout at 2.5 rs. Per share a good sign.....

Tomorrow's concall commentry will be interesting to watch.......

Rgds.



Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 12/May/2014 at 10:41am

DFM Foods Limited Q4 & FY14 conference call to be organized on Wednesday, 14thMay, 2014 at 11:30 a.m. IST

 

New Delhi: DFM Foods Limited, a pioneer in the Indian snacks food market, will be hosting a concall for investors and analysts on Wednesday, 14th May; at 11:30 a.m. IST for the fourth quarter and year ended 31st March, 2014 announced on Monday, 12th May.

 

The call will be initiated with a brief management discussion on the earnings performance followed by an interactive question and answer session. The management team will be represented by Mr. Rohan Jain, Executive Director, Mr. Rajiv Bhambri, CFO & Mr. Rajiv Raina, COO.

 

Wednesday, 14th May, 11:30 a.m. IST

Conference Dial-In Numbers

Mumbai (Primary No.)

6746 5894

Mumbai (Secondary No.)

3938 1094

Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad*

6000 1221

Gurgaon (NCR), Bangalore, Kolkata,  Cochin, Pune, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Chandigarh**

3940 3977



Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 14/May/2014 at 2:38pm

Key Takeaways from the concall :


(1) Crax Corn Rings contributed 80 % to FY14 revenues – a YoY growth of 11.3 %


Namkeens contributed 12 % -- flat YoY


Natkhat contributed 5 % -- a YoY growth of 163 %


Krunchoids contributed 3 % to FY14 revenues.



(2) Retail Outlet reach has increased to 2,20,000 from FY13's 1,96,000.


(3) Gross debt as at 31st March 2014 is at 41 cr.. Debt repayment schedule is 12 cr. p.a.


(4) ICD is fully repaid and 14 cr. are parked as 'Current Investments'.


(5) Company has launched 'Natkhat' in Rs. 5 pack during the quarter and expects to increase its focus on this product line in FY15. New variants are planned to be launched in 'Natkhat' as well as 'Corn Rings' this fiscal.


(6) Krunchoids sales were below expectation and company is looking at fixing the gaps and relaunching the product line this fiscal.


(7) Next round of CAPEX will be planned depending on the sales growth this fiscal.


(8) Company is running at 78 % utilisation level in its existing capacities.


(9) EBITDA margin improvement can be expected starting FY15.




View post Concall :


If we read between the lines, then, company management has set for itself two choices – first, if sales pick up and go to historical 20 % + YoY levels then it will go for geographical manufacturing expansion – whereas – if sales show modest 15-20 % YoY growth then it will go for expansion at its existing plant at Noida in the current fiscal. As mentioned in our recent note too, competitive intensity is increasing in the segment but channel checks suggests good brand pull for 'CRAX Corn Rings'. As was evident from the channel checks, Krunchoids was almost out of shelves during Q4FY14 and management's commentary of below expected response to the product concurs with that. However, we feel Krunchoids is not a major setback as every new product takes its time to get accepted in the marketplace. Good thing is that management accepts the failure and is proactive in taking corrective steps. This approach will yield good results in long run.


Management seems to be working on new products and we can expect couple of launches this fiscal. Its the response to these products that will drive next phase of expansion for the company. Management seems to be playing safe and doesn't want to burden its balance sheet.


Based on recently declared results and management commentary post results, there might be short term negative reaction in the market but at just 1.2 times EV/Sales (FY14) and 13.9 times EV/EBITDA, every dip will offer an opportunity to accumulate the stock for the long term.


Discl .- Hold & looking to accumulate on dips.



Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 15/May/2014 at 10:25am
Anand Rathi Q4FY14 Update on DFM Foods -- Maintains Buy
 
Key Takeaways :
 
 
Healthy Revenue Growth :
 
DFM Foods reported an 11 % yoy growth in revenues for the March-ending quarter. It did not raise prices of its products in 4QFY14 but reduced the weight, from 17 gms. to 16 gms., of its CRAX corn-rings Rs. 5 sachet. Considering the success of its Natkhat brand, the company also introduced here a Rs. 5 sachet (Earlier, it had only a Rs. 2 scahet). Krunchoids, the brand introduced in FY14, has fared poorly and would be relaunched in FY15. At present, the company has a direct distribution network of 0.22m retail outlets . For FY14 it has reported healthy revenue growth of 17 % over FY13.
 
 
EBITDA margin drops :
Higher raw material costs, increased employee  costs as well as ad-spend resulted in the EBITDA margin sliding 180bps yoy. Higher raw material prices, especially of edible oil and packaging, have severely impacted the margin. As the company is expanding its distribution network in eastern and northern India, this has resulted in higher staff costs. Because of the new plant at Noida, depreciation has increased yoy. The effective income-tax rate has dropped 2,870bps. The company had a tax rate of 53.3% in 4QFY13. Net profit expanded 30% yoy.
 
 
Our Take :
 
We value the stock at a target price of Rs. 460, at a target PE of 28x
FY16e earnings. The ready-to-eat snacks market is growing ~15% per annum.
And around 40% to 45% of the market for salty snacks is unregulated. The
company is expanding its distribution in eastern and western India and
planning to broaden its product range. Considering that the major capex is
over and the company has improved its working-capital position, we expect
healthy free-cash-flows ahead. We expect the company to report revenue and earnings CAGRs over FY14-16 of 20% and 38% respectively. Risks: Higher
raw material prices, increase in competitive pressure and delay in the rollout of
products.


Posted By: varunk16
Date Posted: 17/May/2014 at 3:05pm
I've recently looked at this company but very little understanding so far... a few questions for those who've been looking at this.

a) Whats the entry barrier here ?How difficult is it for someone like Pepsi to pose a serious threat to them ?
b)Margins are average but bound to improve. any thoughts on the scalability of the business ?
c) Has anyone met the promoters ? Any thoughts/impressions ?

Also thoughts on whether this looks like a good long term bet..


Posted By: Arshavin23
Date Posted: 22/May/2014 at 5:26pm
Hi Varunk,

To answer some of your questions...

In this business, entry barriers are moderate. One does not require a huge amount of capital to get started on a small scale and then build up the business gradually. The cost of the equipment used to manufacture snack foods has gradually come down. However building a brand is a lot more difficult, it requires advertising and promotion and will take significant time for a newcomer to reach the distribution reach of a big player. So you have a situation whereby 9 players are controlling ~70% of the market as Mahesh has mentioned in his previous post. If you are able to carve out a niche for yourself, you will be able to do well. Pepsi has a pan India strategy and is catering to the mass market. In recent times, it has lost market share to regional players like DFMs Crax and Prataap's Yellow Diamond brand that have a more focused approach.

Scalability is also moderate and can come from two areas: 1) increase revenue per distribution outlet as the brand gains more acceptance.

2) With further growth, the fixed advertising expenses can be distributed over a larger volume. DFM advertises only on cartoon channels that have a national audience. Initially DFM was only selling in the Northern region and advertising nationally due to kids being their their main target customers. By entering the eastern and western regions, there will be some advertising efficiency as well. Recent advertising and promotion expenditure is on the higher side due to entering newer regions and new product launches. Going forward, this is expected to stabilize.

Plants are currently operating at 78% capacity utilization but the overhead costs are already being spent. These will remain at the current level even with increase in capacity utilization.

Regarding the promoters, they do communicate every quarter to update people on the business conditions. They are also transparent in mentioning the problems that they have recently faced with the launch of Krunchoid's. For additional info, you can refer to their earnings call documents on their website.


Posted By: navtej91
Date Posted: 22/May/2014 at 9:59pm
Why is company increasing its dividend when it needs to expand the market region wise beyond North or even need money for R&D in new products.??
Its operating on such thin margins i hope they better their margin by developing new product rather than throwing money as dividends


Posted By: Arshavin23
Date Posted: 23/May/2014 at 10:50am
The dividend increase is in line with capacity increase. Margins are depressed at the moment due to increased advertisement and promotion expenses, interest cost and one time write offs. The key driver for increased net margins will be lower interest costs as the company will repay its debt going forward as well as increased capacity utilization.

One must look forward and analyze how much will the company's two plants earn at full capacity and when these two plants will become debt free. The total potential is to earn revenues of around 325 crores. Their net margins will be around 6% - 8% which will provide them with profits in the range of 20 to 25 crores. Profits are close to free cash flow since working capital requirement is minimum, so at conservative 10x P/E or FCFF the company is worth 200 to 250 crores based on just the existing capacity. At a price of 250, we are not paying for any future growth that will come by reinvesting these cash flows in expansion opportunities.

The next couple of quarters will throw more light on whether their brand is successful in penetrating the western and eastern regions and how will the company's expansion strategy play out.


Posted By: navtej91
Date Posted: 24/May/2014 at 12:06pm
dividend increase I meant in terms.. % of facevalue of a share which has increased from 5% to 25% over last few years .. I hope they were conservative to keep it around 10-15% as You said they need to introduce new products and market new region and yes I like you point the next few quarter will give a better picture as homegrown brands like haldiram and bikaji etc may be competing for market share...
Yes this is how I also judge a FMCG company purely on Operating cash and working capital... Thanks for sharing ur view point


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 26/May/2014 at 12:19pm
Arshavin23 has answered most of the queries aptly....To add....
 
-- Significant portion of expense (more than 10 % of sales) is consumed by free gifts that go into the pack.....although for CRAX Corn Rings this gift is critical component, but, in subsequent product introductions that are planned in FY15, this expense component will be missing and even one success could offer good margin improvement for DFM.
 
---I believe FY15 should be a year of consolidation as far as distribution goes...If you look at distribution breakup closely, then, as against 1.20 lakh outlet coverage of North India, in West India DFm has already reached 60,000 outlets and in East India has reached 40,000 outlets.....there might be some closing down of outlets in West India and coverage getting deppened in East India, but, I don't see distribution reach in FY15 expanding aggresively till capacity augmentation plans are drawn up.....If you observe other impulsive category results closely like Dominos & Mc****, there seems to be visible slowdown in the category in Q4.....situation on ground seems to have improved in Q1FY15......In this backdrop, unless growth picks up substatially what i see is DFM concentrating more on new product launches and expanding offerings in existing products to utilise its distribution fully in FY15.....noida plant is capable of delivering this at fraction of greenfield cost, 30 % capacity can easily be added there to tackle this.....on distribution front there can be an attempt to explore untapped channels like modern retail as also institutional sales (like Railways) can be tapped....
 
---Once the distribution which is currently underutilised (in West & East) improves utilisation you will see visible improvement in margins....however, don't expect dramatic improvement ; as I have said before also, till FY16 expect EBITDA margins to remain in the range of 8.5-10.5 %....at the same time margins are unlikely to move substantially lower, say below 7 %, as we seem to have seen worst of margins already in FY14.....
 
---Rgdg. high dividend payment, its actually a good sign which reflects confidence of the management of improving cash flows and ability to efficiently tackle future fund requirements.....
 
----DFM is a clear long term story in which when rerating initiates it should be sharp and substantial....I believe once the expansion plans are drawn up, first phase of rerating should begin with real rerating happening before the delivery of expansion plans.....you see, markets will always value this business more from EV perspective rather than earnings perspective and so if markets sense aggressive revenue growth coming then rerating has to happen that is my assessment....atpresent, markets are still clueless as no plans are still revealed.....
 
Rgds.


Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 28/May/2014 at 5:20pm

Gujarat-based Balaji Wafers opts out of PE funding, sets eyes on IPO

BY  TEAM VCC
PE firms such as Capital International, Blackstone and Actis besides strategic players such as PepsiCo among others have previously held discussions with Balaji.

Gujarat-based potato chips and snacks maker Balaji Wafers Pvt Ltd, which was reportedly in talks with top PE firms besides strategic investors to raise funds, is now looking at a possible initial public offering (IPO) for future expansion, as per a Business Standard  http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/balaji-wafers-now-plans-ipo-drops-stake-sale-option-114052601089_1.html - report  citing a top company executive.

The company is seeking a valuation of around Rs 4,000 crore for the overall business and plans to offer not more than 10 per cent equity stake in the proposed offering.

Balaji Wafers has planned to expand in north and south market in India and to set up the manufacturing units there for which it was eyeing private capital. It was reportedly in talks with PE firms such as Capital International, Blackstone and Actis having previously held discussions with strategic players such as PepsiCo among others.

However, due to a valuation mismatch the proposed deal did not materialise.

“As Indian economic and political scenario is changing and the country’s economy will surely grow in next five years under the new government, we have decided to take benefit of this and plan for an IPO," Keyur Virani, director of Balaji Wafers, told the newspaper.

He did not give any timeline to float the public issue.

The primary market for public issues has been virtually shut for the past one year. However, with the new government in place it is expected to open up. Benchmark indices are close to all-time highs and one firm Wonderla completed a successful IPO a few weeks ago. Another firm in the hospitality sector Adlabs Entertainment has just filed its documents to raise capital from the public. Earlier it had raised PE funding from ICICI Venture.

Balaji is currently present in states like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Goa and is said to have a market share of 60-65 per cent in the wafers and snacks category in western India. Its revenue is more than Rs 1,200 crore and is expecting 25-30 per cent growth in the current financial year.



Posted By: maheshishah
Date Posted: 18/Jun/2014 at 1:37pm
First step towards CRAX's Southern region penetration started...team appointed for setting up distribution presence in South India... W/o ramping up capacity why southern region feelers are sent thats unclear but in case company expands in South this FY then revenue growth should be intact.

Rgds.

Discl. - Hold


Posted By: ninest123
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2018 at 7:18am
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