Om Shivaya's portfolio.
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Portfolio Check Up
Forum Discription: Members may put forward their portfolios dor comments from other members. The final call will obviously be taken by the investor himself.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=378
Printed Date: 29/Apr/2024 at 6:59pm
Topic: Om Shivaya's portfolio.
Posted By: omshivaya
Subject: Om Shivaya's portfolio.
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 8:02pm
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Hi there,
Ok here goes (All figures are approx.):
TCS: 25.4%
HDFC: 25.4%
L&T: 8.4%
Rel Comm: 3.3%
Nucleus Software: 18.6%
VIP Inds.: 7.8%
Cash Holding: 8.47% (planning to deploy into TV18)
Plan to gather some fresh money: 5% of cash-equivalent of 'folio(as per current 'folio amount) for deployment into Pantaloon or some new value-pick.
So in totality: 8 stocks, including TV18(to be bought) and Pantaloon(to be bought)
Rest below, are not of much significance.
BSEL Infra(punter call, quick in and out in a year hopefully, for pocket-money): 0.42%
Rel. Petro.: 0.10% Hope you can review it Mr. Basant. Thanks. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Replies:
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 9:32pm
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Hey OM, gr8 to see your post and portfolio and hope to see you start contributing in enhancing our knowledge. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 9:47pm
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Absolutely. Well said reetesh! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 9:53pm
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Om,
Nice to see you back !
Cheers, Prosperity ...
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Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 10:05pm
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I have been reading all posts from you(Mr. Basant),bubble, kulman, reesth, prosperity, among others and you are all on the right track. Keep it up. Remember to take a breather every now and then, as every masterpiece of creativity/art/value-pick requires one to take sometime out from creating/painting/value-picking itself. If we are all the time into this, fresh ideas and perspectives will not come.
Keep it going. Good luck everyone. God Bless. When you have time Mr. Basant, please do analyze my portfolio as it will help me get one more knowledgable perspective on the scheme of my things. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 10:13pm
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Thank you for your kind words. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: sanujkr
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 12:06pm
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Is INFY and TCS makes defensive to your portfolio….??????? I think the biggest risk in these two stocks is over optimism, we have seen the result of that in April 2004, when INFY crashed over 25 % in single session, after its shocking guidance…of course after that they have beaten all guidance’s in a big margin... But I think because of its high growth (30 %+) and visibility in strong earnings, stock commands a huge P/E. and it is over owned (every mutual fund and every Foreign institutions have over weightage on INFY and TCS). I think the real challenge is that they have to add over 1$Billion + New Biz every year to sustain its historical growth rate. I think even if there is a slowdown in US and Indian IT industry, company can’t stay with its 30 %+ growth, it will result a P/E under Re-rating in IT stocks, But, both INFY and TCS are on track, they are the pioneers and the leaders in the industry and at best we can dream that they are hitting 10$billion Turnover in 2010. Ie will be a proud moment for every Indians…………… Thanks Sanuj kadavil |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 12:19pm
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Thanks Sanuj. Firstly, if there is a slowdown in IT, the chance of more orders coming in is same as "orders slowing down". 2ndly, TCS has a PE of around 30-35 usually. And if TCS(being a sector leader) cant deliver on the revenue front, almost everyone in this sector would be beaten down.
2ndly, TCS will deliver. TCS and HDFC is being kept so that my portfolio gets a good growth rate as well in a crash situation, the recovery is faster than usual, this taking some pain away. TCS will definitely clock in excess of 30% y-o-y growth I believe and you rightly mentioned the same too.
TCS PE is still at a discount to Infy and compared to growth(TTM) and forward, TCS is at a fair PE and not huge in any sense. Infy you could be right, I dunno!
Also, on the overoptimism you mentioned regarding Infy and TCS, that is possible in case of Infy. But in case of TCS, people usually are mildly optimistic bcoz it has a lesser-flamboyant image than Infy. Also, after the May meltdown, people have got a good lesson and expectations should have got a good toning down, so that bodes well for TCS again!
At least till 2010-11,things look good for these two. After that, I shall think of TCS in a fresh new light, seeing what kind of "new growth path" does TCS set for next 5 years, after 10 billion US$. If I like it, good. Else I shall not hesitate taking off 50% of TCS and allocating somewhere else!
Thanks for your input sanuj! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 10:13pm
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Mr. Basant, my portfolio analysis? Just thought of giving a reminder in case you 4got. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 10:25pm
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Would do it.Sorry... ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 1:34am
No problem sir. No need for "sorry". I know it is difficult for you to answer all posts in a day. I was just reminding, sorry for hastening! I shall wait!  ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 25/Sep/2006 at 5:16am
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OK, almost forgot Mr. Basant. A portfolio check-up is proper when one knows the target one has set for himself. So, I think vefore doing my analysis, you should have a brief idea what I am targeting in next 4 years(not even 1 year more):
I want a return of 400% on the portfolio or in other words, my portfolio should grow to 5 times the current amount. That is, if currently I have 10,000 rupees, it should grow to 50,000 rupees in next 4 years(max.). Keeping that in mind, kindly suggest what changes(if any) needs to be made. But another point on my mind is also that the downfall SHOULD NOT BE TOO HARSH, so I do need a fair amount of good non-cyclical largecap like TCS & HDFC in my portfolio.
I know there are risks involved, but I want a balance between risks and returns, as far as it is possible. If it is not possible, let me know that too!
So, keeping all this in mind, kindly suggest whatever you plan to suggest. Thought I should let you knowin advance and hope this info. helps. Please be as critical and 100% transparent. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 2:53pm
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That is, if currently I have 10,000 rupees, it should grow to 50,000 rupees in next 4 years(max.).
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SOrry I could not write in earlier. Now a 5 bagger in 5 years means a CAGR of 38% for the period. The large caps wil not have a PE rerating so we have to look up at the EPS expansion part for this kind of growth.
Let us look at the stocks one by one which one of these can give us a 38% CAGR and which one will not.
Your current portfolio
TCS: 25.4%
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=117 - HDFC ,: 25.4%
L&T: 8.4%
Rel Comm: 3.3%
Nucleus Software: 18.6%
VIP Inds.: 7.8%
Cash Holding: 8.47% (planning to deploy into http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - TV 18 )
Plan to gather some fresh money: 5% of cash-equivalent of 'folio(as per current 'folio amount) for deployment into Pantaloon or some new value-pick.
So in totality: 8 stocks, including TV18(to be bought) and Pantaloon(to be bought WHich one of these could grow at 38% CAGR for 5 years.
TCS - Will not grow at that rate
HDFC - WIll doa bout 25% - 28%
L&T - Will not grow at that rate
Reliance Communication - Could be but it is only 3.3% of the portfolio
Nucleus Software - Just cannot bet on a second liner IT company for 5 years. Since there is so much of a smokescreen around for that length of time.If it does the stock could hit Rs 3000 because there would be a massive PE rerating upwards. But I would not take that call right now because I have no idea on this one.
VIP Industries - Not clear to me
Assumed the cash conversion to TV 18 - Maybe
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=135 - Pantaloon Retail - Maybe
Thus out of these stocks we could qualify only Reliance Comm, Tv 18 and Pantaloon as companies that could grow at these rates for the enxt 5 years. That leaves 75% of your portfolio into uncertain territory.
Now investors who look at that kind of a return should ideally have a 100% growth portfolio with sector leaders. Companies that grow that fast have a higher mortality rate. Therefore even if one or two companies die the others should be able to take it up from there.
You should build a portfoliom from the stocks of http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_topics.asp?FID=41 - emerging sectors in case you want a 5 bagger in 5 years. But it is all very risky also because one or two companeis acould die down that is why we focus on sector leaders. These are generally the last companies to die down and if you have bought the top two you would be adequately compensated. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 9:03pm
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Thanks very much for your insight Basant jee.
My thoughts are:
TCS: @35% should grow next 4 years!
HDFC: You are right!
L&T: @25%-30% should grow next 4 years!
TV18 I can allocate 10%, instead of the current 8.4%. Another 5% I can take off TCS or HDFC and put into another growth stock. Let's see which one.
Thanks again Mr. Basant! I wanted to ask you one thing Basant jee. Do you always plan to be almost fully invested into the quity market, even after 2010-2015, or after these years, you may take all the profits and put it into safer places. I wanted to know your vision for future. Let's suppose a bull run ends 4-5 years from now, what are your plans. How do you plan to handle your money from thereon. Of course, I am assuming that you majorly live off your equity investments? Do you?
If you dont mind answering, that is! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 9:15pm
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. Do you always plan to be almost fully invested into the quity market, even after 2010-2015, or after these years, you may take all the profits and put it into safer places
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Now that is what a forward looking statement could look like. On a more serious note I have not planned anything neyond 2010 right now and do not know what will happen. For me my clock stops at 2010 for the moment because 10 years in an emerging economy is alot of time.
I think people who try to time the market or keep some part in cash realise in hindsight what a mistake they did. Ask any one of them you know and you will understand. But for me asset allocation is:
Real Estate - My home (Do not count it as I will never sell it unless I buy another one)
Debt - Over the long term they will under perform equity. Cannot get a 10 bagger there. Mostly look for multibaggers in investing. SOmetimes am lucky to get it some times miss it.
Commodities - Will underperform equity. Tough to time entry and exit
Cash/Currency - Keep for basic needs; for emergency can always borrow short term.Emergency comes once in 4-5 years and credit card etc is there for that which can be repaid later on. cannot keep idle cash for emergency.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 9:24pm
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Om Shivaya: This is very interesting:
If you grow money at 38% for 5 years you get a Rs 50 lacs from Rs 10 lacs.
If this growth rate falls to 28% for 5 years you get a Rs 34.40 lacs from Rs 10 lacs.
If this growth rate falls to 18% for 5 years you get a Rs 22.90 lacs from Rs 10 lacs.
If this growth rate falls to 8% for 5 years you get a Rs 14.70 lacs from Rs 10 lacs.
This is the magic of compounding!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 9:27pm
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Hmm. Nice to know. But I was wondering!
If someone is only living out of equity and a bear market comes about, how to reallocate things, so that at least 10% earnings of the 'folio can be achieved thru any means, not necessarily equity. Who knows, the bear market may even last for 5 years? So the person needs to handle his daily expenses(from his 'folio) as well as stay in equity for future bull market. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 9:32pm
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Yes that is correct basant jee. Power of compounding is what i evaluate all day long with my computer's calculator hee hee I still have not owned a "100-bagger". I wish I could get just one, ONE DAY! My minimum holding period is never going to be lesser than 4 years at anytime. I have been in equity since just 2004, but still I contemplate of that elusive 100-bagger in my portfolio one day. Just for the sake of it! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 9:54pm
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living out of equity
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Take one year of living expenses put it in a liquid fund and then keep repeating the process whe ever your stock runs too far ahead. Increase the nest in a bull market
Easier approach is to work through a debt market. Put 150 times of monthly expense into a debt fund and invest the rest into equities., ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 10:48pm
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Hmm. Thats cool. Raw facts and nunbers.
I shall do the calculations on what you said and revert back. Thanks abunch Basant jee!
 I like the 2nd option better though on 1st sight.
Here are the links to 3 good debt funds. Let me know if it suits to keep the cash there for 5 years and manage expenses from it?
Maybe you also might like to take a look at these funds, for your plans after 2010.
http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=862 - http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=862
http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=636 - http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=636
http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=552 - http://www.valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=552
Birla MIP, ICICI MIP and LIC MIP - Reviewed and Rated by ValueResearchOnline(specializing in reviewing only mutual funds)
Do let me know what is your idea on the above debt funds whenever you have free time. Thanks ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 11:09pm
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On a lighter note an investor looks at debt fund when a) He makes a lot of money b) he is nervous on the markets.
I assume that you are doing it because of (a) only and that bear is just to add glamour to your post!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 1:24am
Hehehe! Well (a) is right & as for bear for glamour....naaah! If I wanted to add glamour, I would have had my pic up there, if you know what I mean heehee  After all a Lion anyday is more glamorous than a Bear...oooh hahahahahahaa  ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 29/Sep/2006 at 7:54pm
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Allright Basant jee. For now, I have made some additions with the cash I had. If I get some small cash, I shall deploy it further(maybe 1 year down the line). Here is my new portfolio with its various stock %ages(as per current portfolio amount) and I am now 100% in equity:
TCS: 51.36%
NUCLEUS SOFTWARE: 20.09%
L&T: 7.66%
VIP INDS.: 7.26%
TV18: 4.90%
EDUCOMP SOLNS.: 4.80% REL COMM. : 3.38%------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 29/Sep/2006 at 9:03pm
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TCS: 51.36%
NUCLEUS SOFTWARE: 20.09%
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Why have you made it so lopsided. these two stocks will determine the fortune of your portfolio everything else is so marginal! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 29/Sep/2006 at 12:11pm
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Nucleus is a smallcap and it has a long road ahead. About TCS, yes I too feel I should ilute some more of it, but there is an issue of capital gains in that. I need to wait some more before selling any of it, so that the capital gain doesnt come under capital-gains tax.
How much should I have in educomp and TV18 in totality. I am comfortable holding nucleus, tv18, educomp, vip inds., rel comm. and tcs for next 5 years at least. I expect nucleus, tv18, educomp and vip inds. to get the porfolio going. So, is that okay or should I add some other growth stocks too?
How much more in tv18, educomp? 10% in tv18 in totality, would that be okay, while diluting that from TCS?
I understand your comment above deeply and thanks again for taking time out for your views ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 29/Sep/2006 at 10:10am
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http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=142 - |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 30/Sep/2006 at 1:34pm
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Thank you Basant ji! I think I shall increase TV18 from 4.9% to 10%. Rest shall keep same, for now. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 23/Nov/2006 at 7:28pm
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Where does Educomp fall under Basant ji. Just confirming. Also, I ask again. What would you do out of the following 3 situations:
1) Currently 2.3% of portfolio in Yes Bank. Have 5% equivalent of portfolio in cash. So, put this 5% into Yes Bank and take total to 7.3%.
2) Currently 5.7% in Educomp. Have 5% equivalent of portfolio in cash. So, put this 5% into Educomp and take total to 10.7%?
3) Divide 2% cash in Educomp and 3% in Yes Bank at current rates for each of them.
Thanks. I know you are busy. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 23/Nov/2006 at 8:25pm
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Divide 2% cash in Educomp and 3% in Yes Bank at current rates for each of them - There is no sense in holding small marginalk stakes so I would like you to divide it between these two. Though at this point I must admit that I do not understand Yes Bank as well Educomp but the management pedigree and the sheer size of opportunity makes Yes Bank a compelling investment. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 23/Nov/2006 at 10:50pm
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Thanks Basant ji. My favorite choice 3. Thanks for making the decision quite a bit easier. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 24/Nov/2006 at 3:28pm
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Allright Basant ji. My portfolio is all updated with the cash and the restructuring. As mentioned earlier, a largecap still is a major portion(earlier was around 50.6%).
TCS: 41%
NUCLEUS SOFT: 20.2% TV18: 10.3%EDUCOMP: 9.1% YES BANK: 5.8%VIP INDS.: 5.6%
L&T: 3.8% REL COMM.: 3.7%So, no cash now. 100% invested. I diluted part of L&T and TCS. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Nov/2006 at 3:46pm
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You need to bring more symetry if TCS and Nucleus fail then all the others would not be able to put the portfolio on track. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 24/Nov/2006 at 4:00pm
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Chances of TCS failing is close to nil(gut feeling). Nucleus is a midcap and yes, it is a high risk-high reward investment but it is worth it(again gut feeling). Anyhow, most importantly: if you were me, what changes would you make in percentages in the above portfolio.
Thanks bunch. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Nov/2006 at 4:08pm
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YOu know what stocks I would have bought. Don't think I need to elaborate on that.
See it is all about being comfortable with because unless you are comfortable you would not be convinced unless you are convinced you would not be able to hold on or buy in panic and unless you are able to buy in panic you cannot make serious money. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 24/Nov/2006 at 12:12pm
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Right sir...understood. Thank u very much. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 24/Nov/2006 at 9:34am
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"....unless you are comfortable you would not be convinced unless you are convinced you would not be able to hold on or buy in panic and unless you are able to buy in panic you cannot make serious money."
Basantjee
This is one of the best quotes for investors! ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 25/Nov/2006 at 12:03pm
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I agree 100%. That is also one of my fav. quotes. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 25/Nov/2006 at 12:45pm
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Now that is in Kulmans ... "The Basant Way" ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2006 at 2:09pm
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TCS: 41%
NUCLEUS SOFT: 20.2% EDUCOMP: 9.1% ---
Total 70.3 % in IT stocks. Interesting!!!. Need to do little justice to financial sector. I think software product companies are more of gambling than investing. Chances of these becoming i-flex is very remote. Somehow huge market cap of TCS does not provide me cushion. I feel as TCS keeps gowing it's PE discount will come underpressure. IBM's of the world does not trade at 30/40 PE in their life except bubble time. ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2006 at 2:40am
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61.2%. Educomp I see as an education service provider and IT is just a very powerful leveraging tool they are using. And yes, even at 61.2% it is high. I will surely dilute some off TCS in coming 1 year, but nucleus is my favorite for the next 5 years so no changes in that one. About TCS: their revenue is hardly 0.4-1% of the addressable market that they can cater to, so still long way to go. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2006 at 4:51am
| But omshiva.......Nucleus is a banking play....dont you think it will have competitors....... |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 18/Dec/2006 at 5:04am
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61.2%. Educomp I see as an education service provider and IT is just a very powerful leveraging tool they are using. And yes, even at 61.2% it is high. I will surely dilute some off TCS in coming 1 year, but nucleus is my favorite for the next 5 years so no changes in that one. About TCS: their revenue is hardly 0.4-1% of the addressable market that they can cater to, so still long way to go. ----------------
omshiva..Your logic on TCS does not suits the merit. I agree that there is large market for IT services but the most factor in IT service is scalability. Why do you think INFY posts 25-30% growth vs 100% growth in later 90s. It's because small/mid company can scale better than giants. With you logic all IT service giants should grow much faster than current rate since addressable market is huge as compared to pie they have. IBM grows by odd 10%. So are EDS, CSC etc.
For IT product companies I said it before they are like gambling. It product hits u get jackpot otherwise capital loss. I agree about conviction etc. but then how many i-flex es India has produced so far ? I put Educomp and Nucleus as gambling. ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 19/Dec/2006 at 4:50pm
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Well, about TCS...yes there would be a time of 10% growth rather than 35% y-o-y growth surely, but that time is not coming soon. When comparing IBM to TCS, please also see the revenue of IBM and TCS. When and if TCS reaches half that stage, the growth will surely taper off. as for Nucleus, eudcomp, these are high risk and high return investments. Even gambling involves a bit of knowledge about what one is doing, but when a good research is been done on a company, it is a calculated risk.
Personally, I am more confident on Nucleus of its consistency in the coming 5 years than educomp. Let's hope both deliver. Cheers and thanks for your inputs. Really appreciate it. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 30/Dec/2006 at 2:56pm
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Okay, trimmed some more of my portfolio. Risky proposition for some maybe, but for me I feel more comfortable with it and hence obviously would be ready for the downsides too.
Updated portfolio (as of current market prices), as follows:
TCS: 39.7%
Nucleus Software: 23.7%
TV18: 12%(with assumption that NW18 lists at Rs. 348)
Educomp: 12.5%
Yes Bank: 5.9%
VIP Industries: 5.9%
L&T: 3.6%
Cash in hand: 5% of current portfolio worth. Plan to deploy into TV18 and Educomp, at a good correction. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Dec/2006 at 3:05pm
|
(with assumption that NW18 lists at Rs. 348)
________________________________________
Network 18 should list at above Rs 400 going by what Tv18 trades today. Your portfolio does look solid and you seem to have captured our discussion very well. Congratulations on firstly making some good investments and more importantly holding onto them. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 30/Dec/2006 at 5:07pm
|
Thank you so much Basant sir. You know, Edison rightly said something like: "Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% prespiration...". The unsung heroes are the ones who keep inspiring people and show them the right path while the on-the-stage hero takes all the accolades.
Still, I have a long way to go..........
Btw, I would really love to read even the part that you "edited"...come on! I am sure some wisdowm must be hidden in those too. Even if its repetitive or critical I want it...so thank you! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Dec/2006 at 5:13pm
|
The unsung heroes are the ones who keep inspiring people and show them the right path while the on-the-stage hero takes all the accolades.
______________________________________________________
If that was for me I am really overwhelmed but I think we are all helping each other.Those small nuggets that we post on any matter related to the companies that are discussed here helps each one including me so we can all pat ourselves on the back for that.  ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 30/Dec/2006 at 5:23pm
|
Yes, very true that we ALL HELP EACH OTHER. But everyone on this forum will also agree that you surely deserve 2 pats from us, for every 1 that you give us.
India won the World Cup in 1983, whereas Australia has been consistent with their records. We have a "1983 world cup win" on our hands and now all we need is consistency of maintaining this quality, objectivity and far-sigtedness. Every now and then we shall all be tested and it is then that we shall need to be united. So let's all enjoy...but also keep our guards! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2007 at 1:35pm
|
omshivaya, i would suggest you get out of VIP and move that into something better. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2007 at 6:24pm
|
No, VIP I am okay with. I am just trying to get a better risk:reward ratio stock so that is why researching on which one: EDUCOMP or FINANCIAL TECH. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2007 at 11:27am
|
Even i am looking at FT, but dont know if there is any margin of safety in it at current levels. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 2:50pm
|
Okay, current portfolio stands as under:
TCS: 37.6%
NUCLEUS: 22.5%
TV18: 12.7%
NW18(assuming listing at 400): 4.6%
EDUCOMP: 12.4%
VIP INDS.: 5.58%
YES BANK: 5.6% LARSEN: 3.34%------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 3:28pm
|
Any specific reason for the big weightage in TCS? Not that anything's wrong with that, but normally the bigger chunk of your portfolio, if given to midcaps, could give you chances of multibaggers, etc. With TCS, you could get a good growth, but not a very huge one. So probably it would make sense to dilute a little bit of TCS and move that into Basant's next(when will it come??!!) magical pick!  - my 2 cents, of course keep in mind i'm not an xpert investor like you people, so you can ignore my comments!  |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 3:31pm
|
Hi I feel you are still to much over-weight on TCS. U must bring down some % from TCS. In the short term TCS might gain as there are some market circles who believe that TCS might go for ADS issuse ( to fund corus aquisition). But in the long term INFY, will be a much better option. I am telling u this as i feel infy is much much better managed company than TCS. Also the quality of recrument in INFY is far far better than TCS. I have seen that trend back at IIT kharagpur for a few years). In IT circle i heard that they call TCS as a govt company. Tech mahindra with lots of earning visibility can be a good bet Their recrument quality is also good. But at this price its not cheap. But it can surprise more in upside. Now if u can take risk by adding 22.5% of your portfolio in nucleus, i feel then u should look at pantaloon retail also to diversify. Retail, land bank, insurance, AMC fees, holding in planet sports, galaxy etc all in a bundle. ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 3:41pm
| But i defer a little here.....Omshiva...i think Nucleas is a great opportunity ...it si sure a multibagger..........for the years to come...... |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 3:45pm
|
You are absolutely right guys, and these things have been discussed in the previous pages if you kindly take a look. I just added some more of TV18 today, so updated the portfolio.
I plan to take out 5-10% off from TCs later on, not right now. One reason is the overseas listing of TCS, which should be done at a premium and 2ndly TCS is pretty stable. TCS is more of a 30%-35% grower but with more stability. When the right time comes, TCS would be having the same weightage as Nucleus at some point.
And about Pantaloon, it is the only one with such huge growth prspect, but only thing that worries me is its margins. Between it and TV18, I am more comfortable with TV18.
I am kinda trying to balance "greed" with "stability". Tough task, but trying...! However, coming to your original points investor ji and sudipto ji, I think you shall find the answers in the previous pages. Thanks again for your honest and sincere analysis. Keep those coming from time to time, as it helps me stay on the ground! Thanks again!
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 3:50pm
|
Prashant ji, Nucleus is of course a multibagger. I have chosen everything in my portfolio because it is a potential multibagger. The point is how much of a multibagger. TCS would at least double in next 2-3 years. All others have a potential of at least 3-bagger but I am expecting them all to be between 5-10 baggers at least in next 5 years. TCS I am aware could be a 3-bagger in next 5 years. Anything more would be a definite bonus! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 3:54pm
|
the bigger chunk of your portfolio, if given to midcaps, could give you chances of multibaggers, etc. With TCS, you could get a good growth, but not a very huge one. ___________________________________________________________ I agree to that. Just see if you get a good entry point for any of the other midcap stocks. Otherwise it looks pretty much OK except taht I would have put Tv18 on a higher weightage. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 3:58pm
|
Considering your current holdings, and future portfolio churning plans, you do seem to have a very good portfolio, which should really do well for next 3-4 years. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 4:34pm
|
Basant sir, currently TV18 and NW18(network 18), make around 17.3%. How much more? Making Educomp 6% and taking TV18 to around 23% ? What do you think?
Or keeping Educomp as it is; and taking some off TCS and making TV18 20%. Which is better for higher growth(keeping in mind what you said some days back about Educomp) ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 4:43pm
|
Tv18 could be taken upto 20% where to get the money from is debatable and you may do what is comfortable. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 4:57pm
|
You mean TV18 alone right and not TV18 and NOT TV18 and NETWORK18 combined, that is TV18 20% plus NW18 4.7% would be total of 24.7% in TV18 plus NW18?
Or you meant TV18+NW18 = 20% in totality?
And as for "from where" the money should come, I ask you this: What would you do? Half of the amount to be deployed to be taken off TCS and half off Educomp or more to be taken off Educomp and lesser from TCS.
You are 100% free to be brutally honest...so please be so!
Thanks very much! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 5:06pm
|
And about Pantaloon, it is the only one with such huge growth prspect, but only thing that worries me is its margins. _______________________________________________________ See In retail u can not get more than 3% to 4% margin in India. Now think one thing, BIG, seasoned, sucessfull businessman like Mukesh, Kumar Mangalam, Mittal-Wallmart etc are jumping in this retail sector knowing that their margin will be around 3% to 4% may be a tad little higher in future. I feel u must think about this point again & again. Now if the BEST IN THE INDUSTRY can BET cores of Rs in this business(RETAIL) then why not we? ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 5:14pm
|
omshivaya, one more thing i wanted to know from you(and others as well) is whether you plan to hold on to NW18 after listing, or at some point get out out of it(and maybe perhaps put that money back into TV18). I mean, would we invest in NW18 today assuming it was already listed(lets say, a year or 2 ago) In such a situation would we just have bought into TV18 and not NW18? Interesting hypothesis...something to think about |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 5:22pm
|
NW18 I personally feel is a contemporary of Zee Entertainment. The fact that most of its ventures are still in their earlier stages makes me bullish on it. Entertainment is a different ballgame altogether. If Raghav jee gets NW18 right, it is going to be really really big. The whole point being: IF!
Only Shiva* can tell!
Shiva=MahaKal=TIME ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 5:28pm
|
And sudipto ji, you have made a fantastic point here. I need to do some serious introspection. Basant sir, can Pantaloon stock give a CAGR of 80% or above from current levels for next 3-4 years too? ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 5:38pm
|
can Pantaloon stock give a CAGR of 80% or above from current levels for next 3-4 years too?
_________________________________________________________
That is what I am betting on. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 5:42pm
|
And okay, let's stretch that a bit Basant sir. Can Pantaloon stock(from current level of 480 something), do a CAGR of 80% and above for the next 5 years at least? ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 6:57pm
|
5 years is tough to predict but 70% - 80% till 2011 looks achievable. Question is are you ready to believe in Biyani's execution skills? I think he can pull it off. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Jan/2007 at 7:47pm
|
Ok, thanks sir. Appreciate it very much. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2007 at 8:50pm
|
Ok, I updated my portolio as under.
One last small change after some months shall be done by me again. However, this is what the overall picture would look.
TCS : 25.1%
NUCLEUS SOFTWARE : 22.6%
TV18 : 14%
PANTALOON : 11.5% NTWK18 : 8.79%
EDUCOMP : 6.76%
YES BANK : 5.75%
VIP IND. : 5% Will update when done with last change. Basant sir, comments most welcome and required in fact.
Till then Om Namah Shivaya ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2007 at 8:54pm
|
That looks solid for sure except the ones that I do not understand (VIP). I also did not understand Nucleus a few weeks back but the way the markets have understood that one makes me feel a bit insecure in showing my level of ignorance Seems really well organized though you could put some more in Tv18.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2007 at 9:05pm
|
Well actually I have put something quite substantial into NTWK18 and some into TV18, since the last time I updated my portfolio, but due to NTWK18 and the way Nucleus has moved, the %age change in others is not so noticeable. The change I was planning was to add some more to Pantaloon next time(last change). But, here I would like to ask you this: Would Pantaloon or TV18 be a better choice, keeping in mind my portfolio exposures currently to both? As for VIP, it is the only pure value play that I have in my portfolio. I think it's worth the risk, considering it is a small %age of my portoflio and also because VIP in someways makes me a good value investor, testing my patience a lot. It is good for my temperament!
As for Nucleus and the ignorance you talked about, remember what I said in some other thread sometime back: Everyone has their own circle. That is why we need good investors with variety of circles, so that each one can use the other's insight where he/she is weak. Now, it is NO SECRET just how aggressively I have used your circle of competence to my advantage. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2007 at 8:59am
|
Om, it looks a solid portfolio now. Remember i was asking you about EDUCOMP entry point sometime ago? Do u feel now is a decent time to enter, or hope for a market crash either pre or post budget and then pick it up? |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2007 at 12:03pm
|
Well, we can't predict a crash. My feeling is that Educomp at 850-900, keeping March 2008 as a view, is okay. But with market falls, this may fall below that too who knows. That has to be taken in our stride. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2007 at 12:16pm
Should I put some more into TV18 or Pantaloon from here on, seeing the exposure I have to both of the currently Basant sir?
Thank you in advance ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2007 at 2:16pm
|
Yes both Tv18 and Pantaloon merit investment at current prices.But just keep the skew a bit towards Tv18. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2007 at 2:22pm
|
Allright sir, got it. Thanks a bunch! I feel a good change of tone towards TV18 this time round, as compared to Pantaloon. Really appreciate it a bunch!
Network18 is okay sir, current exposure? ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2007 at 3:03pm
|
Network18 has some wildcard businesses Home shopping and studio18 which I think could become BIG.So it deserves to be held on and exposure is OK.ALso I would like to get Pantaloon up a bit. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2007 at 3:08pm
|
Ok sir, how is this. After the additions: TV18: 16%
Pantaloon: 12.5%
NTWK18: 8.79%(as it is)
I have cash equivalent of 3% of the total portfolio that is why. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2007 at 3:15pm
|
That looks better but remember we are just discussing possibilities that look attractive today when anything changes we would take another look. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 09/Feb/2007 at 3:18pm
|
Yes of course! But I think both you and me are looking minimum at 2010 safely. Even so, there may be changes(who knows), that is obvious and out of our control. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 4:16am
|
My updated portfolio Basant sir(done the last bit) and others. Welcome all reviews & observations.
Viewer notes: Please press Control + A, to view the column heading. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 9:05am
|
After I used control A to se ethe heading it seemed that this portfolio should have been 100% software!
Yes, it does look good now seems that we now have "Om shivaya poised" - only time can tell though. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 17/Feb/2007 at 10:25am
|
I see TCS and Pretail as margin contraction companies. As I always state, a book without financial/Bank overweight needs introspecion. ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2007 at 2:16pm
|
Margin Contraction can be compromised when there is huge Volume Growth expectancy. Anyhow, TCS I don't feel is a margin contraction company and if that is so, then even INFY is.
As for banking overweight, I am more focused on Returns right now and hence have taken that risk too. There have been times when I have paid for this risk and well now the returns are coming up.
I can't really fully appreciate your view of "a book without financial/Bank overweight needs introspection."
------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 18/Feb/2007 at 8:42am
|
Om Jee, U are correct. Whole IT service companies are under margin pressure. Logic is simple, salaries are increasing and ruppee is appriciateg whereas billing rates are almost flat. Only positives are M&A. Which are very risky thing specially in people incentive sectors. Recently, whole interest in India was due to comsuption story and best way to be in this is to buy financials/Banking as they ride almost all spectrum of consumption. ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2007 at 10:30pm
|
Ok, let's take margin contraction. TCS with its recent M&A, has been able to make them marginalized. When M&A such as Pearl(UK), FNS(Australia) happened, everyone expected TCS margins to contract. I did too, but I also said margins will improve in 2-3 quarters. TCS was able to expand its margins healthily and not only that, despite the rupee appreciation TCS expanded its margins even more(when INFY couldn't) in the quarter just gone by.
The negatives have been discounted by all analysts for all M&As of TCS, but from here on margins will in most cases increase.
My expectancy from TCS(despite everything) is 35%-40% y-o-y growth in EPS and by george, TCS shall deliver that. Plus there is the trigger of an overseas listing which will add 5% extra to the return of TCS over the next 3-4 years.
Yes, domestic consumption will help banks surely(for retail consumption of financial products), but Pantaloon will also benefit due to consumption(another type of consumption: goods, materials etc.)
I am at a loss to understand how will HDFC or Yes bank benefit from someone going to buy "vegetables" from Reliance Fresh. But yes, if someone wants to buy a house, vehicle, insurance etc., then banks do benefit. So, banking is also a play on one form of consumption(financial products) as is Pantaloon on another form of consumption(goods, materials etc.).
Maybe you can provide some perspective on this Vipul ji, thanks very much! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2007 at 4:34am
Well!! I never said that IT services companies will not grow rapidly. Please correct me. What I have said in past it their margins are under pressure. Macro suggests it. Micro depends with individual company. Few quarter here or there. Pressure has to come. There is no escape from this. No service company will deny negative impact of rising Rupee and wages. IT services has become factories, where for more profit one needs to deliver more products. This is called volume led growth. All factories/old economy companies work on this basis. Large companies may postpone this pressure by 1 or 2 quarters whereas smaller/mid companies are already feeling the heat. I don't hate IT services companies but being aware of facts are always handy. 
As far as Reliance Fresh use-case is concern. I will say every money in any body's pocket comes from Bank and goes into Bank. There may not be direct co-relation of bank with some trade but this indirect rupee flow will always be true. Now take another angle of reliance fresh case .. Where does reliance fresh keep it's money ? banks right. From where will they get borrowings ? banks right. All their trade with various vendors will happen with some bank. Now which angle of reliance fresh is left from bank is probably consumer side but now please consider co-branded credit cards or just plain credit cards.
It is unfairer is assume banks/financial companies are not involved in any trade unless unorganized. Please also remember where ever banks are not present directly, there they make most of money.
I am not favoring banks/financials but all I am saying here is this is probably best sector to ride this bull market. Being a responsible TED member, I am taking pain time and again to share what I deeply admire. ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2007 at 9:54am
|
I think you misunderstood me. I was not saying you were wrong. I was trying to know your view in reference to what I said. Take it easy Vipul ji, no hassles here. And by the way, TCS margin contraction has been loudly shouted by analysts since last one year and still TCS has only increased their margins despite having the biggest revenue base. Also, despite any contraction, TCS shall still deliver 35%-40% growth y-o-y. That is my target and hence that is my only focus and expectation from it(despite any margin contraction that may happen). Now that you have put down your point of view, we can refer it anytime we want to. Thanks again for putting your views down, appreciate it. And if you favor banks, you have absolutely the right to your opinion.
as I already mentioned... ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2007 at 10:26am
Well I would second Vipul's opinion after reading this Indian firms' IT budget rising at 16.2 per cent: Gartner study Mumbai: The IT budgets of Indian companies in 2007 is expected to increase by 16.2 per cent whereas the IT spends of global companies will average just about 3.2 per cent, states the Gartner EXP CIO survey 2007. http://ibef.org/artdisplay.aspx?art_id=14856&cat_id=60 - http://ibef.org/artdisplay.aspx?art_id=14856&cat_id=60 |
Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2007 at 11:25am
|
It was assumed that Indian IT was finished after mailto:Y@K - Y2K problem was over nothing of that sort happened . It is good Om that there is sceptisism in the market IT spend of India and China is now on the increase , today we all are on this FORUM because of IT . All future technologies , systems , logistics will depend heavily on IT .
The only sector which has give 40% CAGR for more than 10 years will always be an envy of a person not invested in IT(specially Infosys and TCS).
|
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2007 at 11:48am
|
Well IT spending of India is not at all comparable to that of the US...Also almost all IT companies in INDIA are service based companies - with 90% servicing US clients. Unless there is a paradigm shift in the nature of Indian IT industry, the sector might not be a terrific performer. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 21/Feb/2007 at 1:30pm
|
Let's see how it all turns up guys. Good luck. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 08/Mar/2007 at 5:28pm
|
Ok, made a small change:
Will be adding(whatever I diluted off TV18 today) to Network18 and its rights issue.
Basant sir, which is the best option(return-wise):
1) buy Network18 at let's say 300 with all the cash I have
2) buy part shares and part Network18 rights CCPS
3) just buy all CCPS only with the cash.
However, with 1:5 ratio of CCPS, I can only buy half the amount worth of the cash I have. If I apply for more, it will be for double of what I am eligible for and in that case I don't know the probability of me getting those shares. In that case, the extra cash would be wasted. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 08/Mar/2007 at 8:27pm
|
Basant sir, which is the best option(return-wise):
1) buy Network18 at let's say 300 with all the cash I have
2) buy part shares and part Network18 rights CCPS
3) just buy all CCPS only with the cash.
However, with 1:5 ratio of CCPS, I can only buy half the amount worth of the cash I have. If I apply for more, it will be for double of what I am eligible for and in that case I don't know the probability of me getting those shares. In that case, the extra cash would be wasted.
__________________________________________________________
Make arrangements for option 3. As far as excess application is concerned take a loan from a bank and apply for additional shares once you get the allotment repay back the excess amount back to the bank. That way you would save on keeping idle capital! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 08/Mar/2007 at 8:36pm
|
Allright got it sir. Any idea when can the CCPS be diluted in the market: 6 months from now, 1 year or more?
And when 1 CCPS would be diluted, will its value be equal to 1 normal share or anything else?
I am just an amateur in the rights stuff and hence I want to clear evrything up from scratch.
Hope it's not too irritating ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 08/Mar/2007 at 8:54pm
|
Any idea when can the CCPS be diluted in the market: 6 months from now, 1 year or more?
And when 1 CCPS would be diluted, will its value be equal to 1 normal share or anything else?
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No idea on time lines.  ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 08/Mar/2007 at 8:55pm
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Ok, thank you. Gotcha sir. Appreciate all the inputs. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2007 at 5:17pm
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Latest Portfolio(one last update is left, so small cash in hand)
Comments welcome TEDdies. Good luck with yours too! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |