2012 so far – The year of the Dirty Picture
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Printed Date: 27/Apr/2024 at 11:44am
Topic: 2012 so far – The year of the Dirty Picture
Posted By: basant
Subject: 2012 so far – The year of the Dirty Picture
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 12:44pm
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The rally this year has taken a majority of participants by surprise. The general feeling on the Street is one of dismay and disbelief the exact ingredients that make the markets go higher. However the peculiar thing about this rally is that the beaten down names(irrespective of business fundamentals) have gone up the most, This rally has not looked at cash flows, earnings, dividends, growth, management so anyone who looked for reasons in this rally hasn’t found one – except that the ones that went down hard rebounded the most. In any case the ones who have latched on to the beaten down names have a few critical questions to answer for themselves. 1) If I was bullish on Jaiprakash or Sintex could I have waited for Rs 60 and Rs 50 or would have invested into it well before that and have just seen a ride back to the surface after remaining underwater for a few months? 2) Assuming that I caught the bottom what percentage of the portfolio could have been bet on such names for wealth creation with risk management. 3) What was the likelihood of staying invested in such names for the entire 65%- 75% of the rally from the bottom and not cashing out at the first 25% of the move? 4) When is it proper to exit such names as with these companies we need two correct decisions “the entry” and “the exit” whereas with secular stories we need just one correct decision “the entry”. How-ever it is not just the “dirty” names that have done well. Companies like Titan, Jubilant Foodworks, TTK and Bank of Baroda have appreciated by between 40%- 60% from the lows. Given an option between making a 75% in Jaiprakash and a 55% in Titan it is clear where an investor would like to bet. Such betting is important not because we make lower return in a Titan but because we can put more money to work and in this market the size of return matters more than the speed. In pure market terms it does not matter whether money is being made in a Reliance Power or a Bata because money has no colour. The only concern is that the dirty money has a greater probability of disappearing a risk that all investors face irrespective of whether they are in the market for ten months or thirteen years! One of the most debatable aspects of investing is that when people do not understand and cannot ascribe reasons to stock price movements they get the liquidity argument in. Can there be any movement in asset classes without liquidity? All asset inflation is a result of liquidity infusion as all declines are explained by removal of liquidity. So trying to justify all stock price movements through the liquidity argument is like saying there are more buyers than sellers and vice versa. ........... continud on Basant's Corner------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Replies:
Posted By: ameydesai
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 1:37pm
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indeed basntji ......i was never invested in JP associates or Sintex Inds
rather in Dec/Jan - i had purchased Titan at 167, Tata global at 103 levels ..... i exited tham at 205 and 120 levels respectively
frankly speaking nobody knows - why L&T has suddenly grown from 1000 levels to 1400 levels and so has SBI ...... fundamentals are same as they were 3 months ago .... also no great policy decisions have flown in 2012 yet ...... i think it is better to sit on sidelines and watch such spurious rallies than burn your fingers unnecessarily..... i continue to make my SIPs in HDFC Top 200, DSPBR Top100, IDFC Premier equity and HDFC midcap opportunities. Also I have entered City union bank and IL&FS transportation networks with a long term view
------------- Arise, Awake and Stop Not till the Goal is reached |
Posted By: kmp_saij
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 1:51pm
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excellent write-up.
"Given an option between making a 75% in Jaiprakash and a 55% in Titan it is clear where an investor would like to bet. Such betting is important not because we make lower return in a Titan but because we can put more money to work and in this market the size of return matters more than the speed."
Above is an excellent argument. I am fully agree.
Thank you very much Basantji. ------------- Own whatever’s feared, shun whatever’s beloved. |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 2:03pm
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Great post Basant Sir... It's hard to avoid envy but one must try his best I guess
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Posted By: rinkumalpani
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 3:53pm
| This was a wonderful opportunity for people to buy almost anything to get gud returns but such opportunities come once in a while. The only thing which would have led one to buy these stocks would be either experience or luck .But the hardwork that goes into identifying potential multibaggers to the tune of 5-10 times in the next three years irrespective of markets and nifty behaviour based on fundamentals and technicals will definitely multiply wealth in the long run.I have always believed that no bull run is over unless some shortsellers lose heavily and looking at the market behaviour,It seems this might have been a trap. Short kaRney walon key kapdein utar gayein hongey. |
Posted By: Avadhoot
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 4:26pm
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(1) market is as market does
(2)This is the reason so-called market experts do the consulting work and don't go for proprietary trading only. we often hear the cliche-"I dont have position in this stock but recommended it to my clients". (3)Just the study of financial statement is not sufficient.One should have the conviction in his investment. In the 2008 market collapse one of my stock became one third of my buy price but I did not sell that because I was pretty sure that it shall bounce back (as stock was fundamentally analysed). Today that stock is almost double of my buy price. Did I have the desired conviction in my stock ?? And the answer is a big ' NO'. Had I had conviction in my stock I would have added further when it became half and subsequently became one-third. (4) even so-called experts of the fund houses could not save the fund. A 2007 hero fund (even a famous MF analysis site had given it 5 stars that time) is today one of the worst performer and the same MF analysis site now assigns it a single star. (5) one more thing is the sleep factor. HDIL and Andhra bank are trading in the range of 120-130. if some one decides to buy 1,00,000 shares either Andhra or HDIL.(for a time horizon of 3 years) With buying of which share you shall get better sleep in the night? 
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Posted By: manishwithted
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 4:27pm
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Thanks Basant sir for yr enlightening article. regd Liquidity , below is an interesting article from Prof Bakshi . http://www.sanjaybakshi.net/Sanjay_Bakshi/Articles_files/Is_Liquidity_Important.HTM ------------- Long term thinking improves short term decision making - Brian Tracy |
Posted By: luke123
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 7:56pm
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I think if JP stops here then your point may be valid but if JP goes back to 200?? Another way to look at it is there is close to 0 chance of Page going to 10000 this year but a reasonable 25-30% chance of JP going to 200 if the market maintains its momentum The differnece is not between 40% & 75%. The difference is between 40% and a 1000% (in real ugly names). The point to concede is there is no way of timing the bottoms and over the long term it makes sense to be in Titan than JP. The people who have made money in these stocks in this rally are the people like me who got stuck in them because they never sold them. I have spent 4 miserable years owning Indiabulls. I might eventually make more money than consumer guys(Page, hawkins) but I would have been far happier owning Page than Indiabulls. If the rally continues(a big IF), I think this might be the year of the UGLY where the UGLY companies make 400-500% while the GOOD ones make their standard 25-30%. What say?? Luke |
Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 8:11pm
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This highlights one thing that good or dirty all stocks
are cyclical and trick is identifying next cycle--- |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 8:45pm
Your points are insightful as always based on real life experience.. Hitesh Bhai made a similar point the other day... Copy pasting here in case folks missed it
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Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 9:15pm
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Thanks Basantji for this timely article!! I just think that in stock market there is tendency to revert to mean.
I have a question to ask like everyone else. Is this a new bull market or just final bounce before most of the stocks including beaten down names go for final capitulation. In 2009 too market went up and beaten down names were multibaggers but that was not sustainable in hindsight. Is this different? Again, we will know in hindsight but the way tainted names (ADAG grp etc) have gone up doesn't bode well for all of us. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: luke123
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 9:23pm
There is really no way to know. That will be decided after the fact. In 2014, we will say if 2012 was Bull market or just an upward move that fizzled out. Luke
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Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 8:00am
I agree with the first part of your post.... The Second part is hindsight wisdom as posted by most folks.
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Posted By: shontou
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 8:36am
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Very aptly put Basant Sir.
These so called financial experts ascribe every upward stock market movement to liquidity just like our politicians blame Pakistan for every small cracker that goes off in any part of country!!! ------------- Every day, self-proclaimed stock market "experts" tell us why the market just went up or down, as if they really knew. So where were they yesterday? |
Posted By: dhananjayan1978
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 9:49am
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Well said. There is lot of dirty money in the current market.
------------- Dhanan |
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 19/Feb/2012 at 11:18am
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The key point that we all never focus on and that Basantji is highlighting here is, how much allocation can you make to these potential 1000 percenters.
Its easy to figure that if something has fallen from 200 to 10 then potentially it will bounce back much faster - but can you allocate 30% of your portfolio to it and see it go from 10 to 7 and then from 7 to 30, then back to 15 and then to 45 and so on.It will drain us emotionally. So instead of making a 5% allocation and a five bagger in a bad name, do a 30% allocation in a good name and you just need a doubler to achieve the same absolute result. I think that is the jist of the article. ------------- Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time. |
Posted By: koolvalue
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 9:16pm
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whatever said we cannot deny presence of easy dollars
in Indian stock markets-- Considering our political leadership,cast based politics, political subsidies,credibility of political leadership, corruption,discriminating business policies hard earned money will never to india. FOR those FIIS who are investing in INDIA,LAS VEGAS slot machines offer better payout ratio with similar thrill of gambling. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 9:52pm
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Koolvalue, I appreciate your thought but I do not agree that we are worse than other markets. Our market PE is much better than Korea, Russia, China, Brazil etc etc only because our companies have better corp. governance, return ratios and that's what matters for an investor. Govt. is extremely supportive to local companies in other three of BRIC nations but do they get higher discounting? an emphatic no! All these problems you have mentioned are part of evolution process for an emerging market. USA was full of mafia owned businesses in early 20th century but that did not stop it from becoming world power. We will take time but things would improve in long term. At least I remain hopeful. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: rajnsharma
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 10:17pm
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Whatever little I have learnt in my small investing phase of my life, I have learnt two simple things;
1. An investor must be an eternal optimist. 2. One must buy companies, not markets. Raj ------------- Wall Street makes money by it's activity, while you can make money by your in-activity - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: datta.supratik
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 10:22pm
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Well an alternate viewpoint is that when you get into a line of least resistance pointing upwards, it might sound awkward but the highest betas would give u a better return in short term than the larger ones. After all how many times have we seen the beaten down names are 'assumed' cheap and bought into the bull market for a great 2-3 bagger. It might turn that a Hindustan Dorr or REC gives u a better return than an HDFC bank or Page or Cravatex. It might make some sense to allocate a small portion and play the rally buying into the lesser favorite names of the last bear market - only if you can lose that portion and still sleep tight at night. Who know you might have thread up at TED 'Building up a Portfolio at Sensex 28000' by Dec2012. After all Dirty picture has sweep ed all awards - will the stock market show us the dirty game!! ~Supratik |
Posted By: munger
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 11:42pm
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Can someone please explain why Sintex is not a good stock to consider for a long term investment.
Past record indicates volatility but consistent returns. Thanks ------------- Munger |
Posted By: neeraj_kumar
Date Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 10:47am
I liked your comment, sir. This is exactly what I have learnt also. |
Posted By: dipankar66
Date Posted: 22/Feb/2012 at 4:55pm
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The start of a rally generally begins with beaten down stocks (and not stocks like Titan/Page) as there is perceived higher margin of safety in buying a beaten down stock. One may, rightfully, buy a metal company's/bank's stock quoting at close to or below book value than a FMCG stock which is fully priced (at least not hugely mispriced in different parameters, so there is small margin of safety in buying them, e. g. TTK Prestige/Page). would you like to buy a beaten down HDFC or Yes Bank than a Page Industries at 30-35 PE? Here, in this rally, even Tata Motors and Yes Bank have outperformed the Sensex and not only JP Associates (although best performer probably is Reliance Infra).
What has happened is that a lot of traders expected the index to go lower and lower on the back of Index heavyweight stocks, and went on selling/shorting them and in the process deep value emerged in those counters. This has happened earlier also, and surely will happen again. As regards the market expectations, there is optimism about rate hike cycle and inflation peaking, UP election results might change the balance of power at New Delhi, and last but not the least, the Greek situation. As regards the last, I always maintained that Greece would not be allowed to default by US and Germany as the politicians would dread at the prospect of another recession, specially when they will face the electorate in a year or so. So they would, (like everyone else, as it's only human) kick the can down the road and there would be some haircut for the bondholders and a European QE. The GDP of Greece is not so huge so as to arrange the cash for the bailout, although, Italy, France and Spain are different matters because of the sheer size of their economies. If the rally continues, which is likely at this stage, the leadership may change from the beaten down names, as, after some time, the valuation argument will not hold water. ------------- DD |
Posted By: rinkumalpani
Date Posted: 23/Feb/2012 at 2:51pm
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Posted By: excel_monkey
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2012 at 7:33pm
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I am so happy today
Marc uncle predicts a massive fall http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/fii-view/ems-likely-to-underperform-barring-few-exceptions-faber_690183.html ------------- I have a vested interest in the stocks I discuss, therefore I would request you to kindly consider my comments with a pinch of salt and do your own due diligence |
Posted By: rajnsharma
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2012 at 8:04pm
If he is so sure why doesn't he go and short the market by 10-20 billions  ------------- Wall Street makes money by it's activity, while you can make money by your in-activity - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2012 at 10:24pm
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I do respect Marc for his views..he does more for passion for equities. He has amazing accuracy as far as predicting these market movements are concerned. But this doesn't mean everything would go down. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 09/Apr/2012 at 10:53pm
I think this prediction like predictions in general have 50-50 chance of working. 
|
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 08/May/2012 at 11:02pm
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This time like most of the time Marc Faber got it right. Look at the extent of fall everywhere. ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: spidermantt
Date Posted: 09/Aug/2012 at 3:01pm
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Posted By: jackwarner
Date Posted: 09/Aug/2012 at 3:21pm
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From last 2 years I am investing in strock exchange and and i neither lost a penny nor got profit in it.
Can you just tell me that which is the best company now a days where i can enter now ? |
Posted By: dhamu.k11
Date Posted: 09/Aug/2012 at 4:57pm
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this is fine for choosing jaiprakash and titan..
why cant you take a look at repro,mt educare ltd |
Posted By: Keshavam
Date Posted: 09/Aug/2012 at 6:00pm
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Respected Basant sir, I am new here but when I went through some of your articles was excellent. In the mean time I came across to the confusion of how to pick the midcap shares which would be large cap of future? Please guide for the same. Thanking you,  ------------- Always Positive. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Aug/2012 at 8:02am
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Thank you, its a variety of factors prominent among them being management integrity, sector leadership and some kind of entry barrier and if the business is commoditized like financial services than the scale of opportunity. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Keshavam
Date Posted: 10/Aug/2012 at 1:36pm
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Can anyone guide me about IL&FS and JSW Ispat for long term investment purpose. ------------- Always Positive. |
Posted By: sumitraepic
Date Posted: 13/Nov/2015 at 3:11pm
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Great post Basant sir... I have seen your many posts and found amazing investment information, many people follow your ideas in their investment.
------------- http://www.epicresearch.co/commodity-tips/ - Commodity Tips |
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