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TheEquityDesk report Card - December 2010

Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Identifying Multibaggers
Forum Discription: Discuss specific attributes that investors could look at while choosing multibaggers. Also point out certain factors that investors tend to overlook while finding multibaggers.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=3136
Printed Date: 27/Apr/2024 at 1:41pm


Topic: TheEquityDesk report Card - December 2010
Posted By: basant
Subject: TheEquityDesk report Card - December 2010
Date Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 10:22am

Dear Teddies

At the outset I wish you a very happy and prosperous new year. 2010 was a year where the TED XI stocks significantly better then the indices thus superimposing the notion of focused stock selection.

The consumer names in the TED XI did significantly better and I assume that they will continue to shine. As we have debated several times before this bull market is led by the consumers and the while many money managers are waiting for the infra stocks to resume heir 2003-07 trend I personally think that consumers should do better on a risk reward profile.

Hawkins Cooker was one TED company which did phenomenally well in the first half and then remained range bound for the later part of the year. There were issues about the company scaling up its production to meet the huge outstanding demand from the market checks that we have made it does appear that the new supplies have started coming in. At least our channel checks from cities such as Kolkata, Delhi and a few towns in western Maharashtra reflect that

One interesting aspect about a company like Hawkins is that it keeps taking up market share from the unorganized sector and the price point difference between the organized and unorganized sector is huge. For instance a branded pressure cooker sells for almost 3 times the price of its inferior option in the unorganized space. So if there is a Rs 100 crore market demand shift from the unorganized to the organized space it creates a Rs 300 crore new demand for the branded manufacturers).

The fact that Tata Motors is facing trouble selling its small car Nano tells a lot about the Indian consumer. The Indian consumer wants better quality goods and is willing to pay a higher price for that. I think that Nano facing headwinds is great news for all consumer discretionary companies here in India.

Durinng a vacation to SIkkim I had a chance to visit the upcoming Zydus plant which is schedules to get operational from April 2011. I have put down the details in the Zydus thread on TheEquityDesk.

 

Company

Recm

Recm

Current

Gain

 

Price

Price

Price

(Loss)%

Hawkins Cooker

5-Sep-06

92

1351

1368.48

Titan Industries

18-Aug-06

749

3605

381.31

Page Industries

8-Feb-08

430

1522

253.95

Yes Bank

1-Sep-06

89

315

253.93

HDFC Bank

20-Jul-06

697

2320

232.86

Blue Star

6-Oct-06

137

434

216.79

HDFC,

5-Aug-06

249

728

192.37

Voltamp

1-Apr-09

340

765

152.94

Zydus Wellness

31-Mar-10

382

594

55.50

Thermax

15-Oct-07

690

874

26.67

Voltas

28-Jan-08

220

215

-2.27

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

 



 






-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in



Replies:
Posted By: trushik
Date Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 10:26am
Clap


Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 10:49am
I think it also goes on to day that India is looking for an aspirational product. not just bare bone base product.


The fact that Tata Motors is facing trouble selling its small car Nano tells a lot about the Indian consumer. The Indian consumer wants better quality goods and is willing to pay a higher price for that. I think that Nano facing headwinds is great news for all consumer discretionary companies here in India.


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Fundamentalists and anticipators may have difficulties with risk control because a trade keeps looking ‘better’ the more it goes against them....Ed Seykota


Posted By: rdyn
Date Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 10:56am
@Basantji , <bows down>

@Circuit, +1

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My aim is to read each and every post on TED!


Posted By: SK1076
Date Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 11:15am
Congratulations! Basant ji &  all Teddies.

Also, Wishing a very Happy & prosperous New Year 2011 to all the Teddies!




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Patience PAYS/-


Posted By: bearish
Date Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 11:56am
BasantJi since we are celebrating the hits, could we also figure out the misses such as Voltas and what has gone wrong with the company? The fact that it has still not be replaced in this report card indicates something about the future that you have analysed that makes you stay put on the recommendation?
Also it has been referred to in the Nira Radia tapes in a land dealing. Does that raise a red flag?


Posted By: values
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 12:02pm
Hi Basant,

I am the newest Teddie, i just joined yday. The TED forum has a lot of useful information. And congratulations on a wonderful report card.


Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 12:11pm
One interesting aspect about a company like Hawkins is that it keeps taking up market share from the unorganized sector and the price point difference between the organized and unorganized sector is huge. For instance a branded pressure cooker sells for almost 3 times the price of its inferior option in the unorganized space. So if there is a Rs 100 crore market demand shift from the unorganized to the organized space it creates a Rs 300 crore new demand for the branded manufacturers).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
this one is unique logic and i am difficult to find such difference in prices in any other industries.Clap


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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 12:51pm
Originally posted by bearish

BasantJi since we are celebrating the hits, could we also figure out the misses such as Voltas and what has gone wrong with the company? The fact that it has still not be replaced in this report card indicates something about the future that you have analysed that makes you stay put on the recommendation?
Also it has been referred to in the Nira Radia tapes in a land dealing. Does that raise a red flag?


You are correct. Voltas has been a drag and the tapes have put this management in particular and the Tatas in general in really bad light.



-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: manishwithted
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 12:58pm
 Happy new year to all fellow teddies.

May the new year brings lots of happinezz n success for all.

at present which are the TED XI stocks are worth entering. ( i already own yes bank)

I find Zydus as expensive ( i did not do through research on same)

Voltas is a good company, I dont understand why it has not been able to perform well


Posted By: ash7979
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 1:54pm
BsantJi,

No new Stock idea in last qtr & no replacement/addition to TED XI for new year 2011...

And Wish you & all TEDdies Very Happy New Year Ahead...


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Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free....


Posted By: kushal.masand
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 2:06pm
happy new year teddies....

we should look for some replacements........


Posted By: bsk0404
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 2:20pm
To start 2011 i have added Rel Media in small qty today morning.

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There are only 2 tragedies in market 1st buying a good stock at wrong price 2n buying wrong stock at any price.


Posted By: nine
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 5:03pm


Posted By: nav_1996
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 5:58pm
This is whopping 60% + return in 2010 if you had spread your investments equally across Ted XI.

Beats all MFs in market by a very wide margin.

Hats off to Basantji.


Posted By: rajnsharma
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 6:10pm
As usual TED XI is like Indian Cricket Team....No. 1 in test ranking

By the way Basantjee, Thermax and Voltas has not performed since the recommendation. Do you see any chances that it can outperform in next 2-3 years. If not any plans to replace them?


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 7:58pm
Originally posted by rajnsharma

As usual TED XI is like Indian Cricket Team....No. 1 in test ranking

By the way Basantjee, Thermax and Voltas has not performed since the recommendation. Do you see any chances that it can outperform in next 2-3 years. If not any plans to replace them?
thermax has been a 6 bagger from its low of 145 in march 2009, voltas is a 8 bagger from its low of 34 during the same period.being cyclicals and in a capex driven industry they had to be bought when capex had frozen with the hope that one day capex will take take off.both have delivered on the above and thermax could become something big if capex improves further in fy12-13 and jairam becomes even more tougher.


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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: excel_monkey
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 8:15pm
great job Basant


Posted By: sayedmohd5e
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 10:39pm
Basantji...thanks a lot for ur suggestions posted..can u plz suggest any penny stock which can give me excellent returns in 1 year


Posted By: jaimin31
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 11:43pm
Here are the stocks that gave me decent returns in the past year or so, though the returns are not as great as the best ones in this list at TED. They too are related to the consumption space that this forum seems to be bullish on:

Relaxo Footwear,
Gitanjali Gems,
Somany Ceramics,
Whirlpool,
Berger Paints.

I also bought TTK Prestige recently and it shot up 35-40% in the past few weeks. But that might just be the good prospects being priced in instead of returns from earnings.


Posted By: chints
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 11:48pm
@sayed...i dont want to criticize u but this kind of thinking and outlook doesn't serve any good!


Posted By: jaimin31
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 2:01am
Mr. Maheshwari's observation about Hawkins is very interesting. However, I wonder if there will ever be an opportunity in this stock again. I did a quick check, and saw that the numbers like EPS, net profit, etcetera have gone up about 3 times; however, the stock price has gone up 10 times in the same period. So, obviously, a lot of goodness is heavily priced in the stock which makes it a risky investment. I know there must not be a straight answer to this, but any thoughts are welcome.

Thank you.


Posted By: rajnsharma
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 6:48am
Originally posted by tigershark

Originally posted by rajnsharma

As usual TED XI is like Indian Cricket Team....No. 1 in test ranking

By the way Basantjee, Thermax and Voltas has not performed since the recommendation. Do you see any chances that it can outperform in next 2-3 years. If not any plans to replace them?
thermax has been a 6 bagger from its low of 145 in march 2009, voltas is a 8 bagger from its low of 34 during the same period.being cyclicals and in a capex driven industry they had to be bought when capex had frozen with the hope that one day capex will take take off.both have delivered on the above and thermax could become something big if capex improves further in fy12-13 and jairam becomes even more tougher.

Fair point. However 2008 lows were an aberration in my opinion as it will throw every calculation out of gear.

My question is more about the future of these two stocks.



Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 7:45am
All the stocks is TED XI are ones where one can bet his entire net worth and yet sleep well because the business is good in general and managements have been exceptional all along.The index is not just about absolute returns but risk adjusted returns.

So if anyone can suggest a better replacement which satisfies the above,that'll be great.I think this discussion came up before but nothing substantial came up to dislodge the current eleven.

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Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.


Posted By: bitu1978
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 9:13am
Originally posted by jaimin31

Mr. Maheshwari's observation about Hawkins is very interesting. However, I wonder if there will ever be an opportunity in this stock again. I did a quick check, and saw that the numbers like EPS, net profit, etcetera have gone up about 3 times; however, the stock price has gone up 10 times in the same period. So, obviously, a lot of goodness is heavily priced in the stock which makes it a risky investment. I know there must not be a straight answer to this, but any thoughts are welcome. Thank you.


It was there Just one Month Back when It was trading at 950-980 range.


Posted By: sayedmohd5e
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 9:42am
@chints: Thanks for your honest reply..I am new into the share market.Already taken some amount of Shares like NTPC,Suzlon,Dabur & SATCOM. Iwant to invent another 50 thousand. Plz suggest where to put in this money


Posted By: ash7979
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 9:46am
Originally posted by sayedmohd5e

@chints: Thanks for your honest reply..I am new into the share market.Already taken some amount of Shares like NTPC,Suzlon,Dabur & SATCOM. Iwant to invent another 50 thousand. Plz suggest where to put in this money


You have these 11 TED XI stock, you can put your money in any of these 11 stocks...If I was you then I would have put entire 50K in zydus wellness for 3-4 time horizon...And as this is TED XI stock then you will get update on these stocks here on TED, so you dont have to track much yourself:)


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Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free....


Posted By: vijayM
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 9:53am
Originally posted by nav_1996

This is whopping 60% + return in 2010 if you had spread your investments equally across Ted XI.

Beats all MFs in market by a very wide margin.

Hats off to Basantji.


In the last one year, best performed fund is Magnum FMCG with 46% return.
TED11 has outperformed it with a wide margin.Big%20smile





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If a business does well, the stock eventually follows:Warren Buffett


Posted By: nav_1996
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 10:35am
Beauty of TED XI is it is diversified across sectors and still beats all kinds of MFs. Return does not include buying on dips/timing/trading etc like MFs.


Posted By: aniljain
Date Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 10:50am
Originally posted by prabhakarkudva

All the stocks is TED XI are ones where one can bet his entire net worth and yet sleep well because the business is good in general and managements have been exceptional all along.The index is not just about absolute returns but risk adjusted returns.

So if anyone can suggest a better replacement which satisfies the above,that'll be great.I think this discussion came up before but nothing substantial came up to dislodge the current eleven.
 
 Can we add manappuram general finance to this list?
 
 
 
Disclaim- I have invested in this stock.


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Investment is an art, not science


Posted By: learn2earn
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2011 at 3:05pm
One quick question on TED XI?

Which stock has comparatively the most attractive valuation among the group?

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INVESTING - EMOTION = SUCCESS


Posted By: ash7979
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2011 at 6:06pm
Originally posted by vijayM

Originally posted by nav_1996

This is whopping 60% + return in 2010 if you had spread your investments equally across Ted XI.

Beats all MFs in market by a very wide margin.

Hats off to Basantji.


In the last one year, best performed fund is Magnum FMCG with 46% return.
TED11 has outperformed it with a wide margin.Big%20smile




I have done one year return calculation for TED XI stock for year 2010 & it has come out around 55.55% from Jan'2010 to Dec'2010.

I have uploaded the xls sheet on google docs & below is the link for the same(Just Copy & paste below link in your browser to see this xls sheet):

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AnufbmouJIo1dHEwa0U3WkxoMEdsUXNiNUU3c09iVWc&authkey=CLvc2YEH&hl=en#gid=0

BasantJi & All TEDDies can review this sheet & let me know if I have done any mistake hereEmbarrassed (All data has taken from google Finance)...

Some Observation from the above sheet:

  1. Titan was the best performing stock from TED XI during 2010 with around 150% return in 2010ClapClap.
  2. Voltamp was the Wrost performing stock TED XI during 2010 with around -18% return in 2010.Cry
  3. HDFC Twins (HDFC Bank & HDFC) move together, as their return in 2010 was 37.6 & 36.3 respectively...Their return was so close, that I think we can choose either of them & get the same ReturnWink
  4. Thanks to last min Action in Hawkins, we could get 100% + return from Hawkins (104% to be precise) as well.
  5. Best Performing MF in 2010 was  http://valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=630 - Magnum FMCG with 49% return in 2010 (Source: http://valueresearchonline.com/funds/repcard.asp)
So, TED XI not ONLY outperformed both NSE & BSE Index but all the MF available in market...

I hope above analysis may help fellow TEDDies...

PS: I am pasting same xls below as well for ready referenceSmile

Company Recm Recm Current  Gain  Price on 1/1/2010 Price on 31/12/2010 Gain/Loss %
  Price Price Price (Loss)%      
Hawkins Cooker 05-Sep-06 92 1351 1368.48 662 1351 104.08
Titan Industries  18-Aug-06 749 3605 381.31 1420 3601 153.59 Best Performer
Page Industries 08-Feb-08 430 1522 253.95 850 1525 79.41
Yes Bank 01-Sep-06 89 315 253.93 260 312 20.00
HDFC Bank 20-Jul-06 697 2320 232.86 1705 2346 37.60
Blue Star 06-Oct-06 137 434 216.79 395 437 10.63
HDFC, 05-Aug-06 249 728 192.37 534 728 36.33
Voltamp  01-Apr-09 340 765 152.94 930 760 -18.28 Worst Performer
Zydus Wellness 31-Mar-10 382 594 55.5 270 600 122.22
Thermax  15-Oct-07 690 874 26.67 614 864 40.72
Voltas 28-Jan-08 220 215 -2.27 175 218 24.57
CAGR Return from Jan'2010 to Dec'2010 55.53




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Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free....


Posted By: nav_1996
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2011 at 7:04pm
Add approx 2% of div returns to it in case that is not added.


Posted By: ash7979
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2011 at 7:17pm
Originally posted by nav_1996

Add approx 2% of div returns to it in case that is not added.


All TED XI stocks are not very good DIV Payer (Except Hawkins which has around 3% yield)...On an average we can add 1% as Div in overall return, but this 1% looks peanuts in front of whopping 55% overall return with price appreciation!!!


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Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free....


Posted By: datta.supratik
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2011 at 7:36pm
The dividend yield also keeps investing.
If we would have added Hawkins at the recommended price 100, dividend now at Rs40 is almost a 40% yield.

~Supratik


Posted By: ash7979
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2011 at 7:41pm
Originally posted by datta.supratik

The dividend yield also keeps investing.
If we would have added Hawkins at the recommended price 100, dividend now at Rs40 is almost a 40% yield.

~Supratik


I have done calculation for just 2010!!

So, if we consider Div yield for 2010 for TED XI, then I will be ~1-2%, that i said is meager in front of whopping 55% return due to Price appreciation...And if you really want to add Div yield then we can assume, we got ~57% absolute return in Year 2010!!!


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Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free....


Posted By: ash7979
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2011 at 9:32pm
Now, another one...

I have calculated CAGR return for TED XI stocks individually (for simplicity I have not included Div) & then taken average of all individual
CAGRs to calculate average CAGR return for TED XI Stocks (though these stocks picked at different point of time but for simplicity I have just
taken average of all to Calculate CAGR return for TED XI) & it has come out around whopping ~45%!!! (starting from Aug'2006 to dec'2010).

I have uploaded the xls sheet on google docs & below is the link for the same(Just Copy & paste below link in your browser to see this xls sheet):

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AnufbmouJIo1dC10TjBwSWFKdmJ1d0hIZXh6Z0MtMnc&authkey=COWF24oG&hl=en#gid=0

Some Observation from CAGR calculation:

1. Hawkins was the best performing stock from TED XI with around ~86% CAGR return Since it has picked in Sept'2006 (Tough CAGR return of Zydus is 122%, but as it is less than 1 year old in TED XI, so Hawkins should be considered as Star Performer in TED XI.

2. Voltamp was the Worst performing stock TED XI during 2010 with around -18% return in 2010,but surprisingly it is 3rd best performing stock in TED XI,next to ONLY Zydus & hawkings...This prove that if a stock picked at RIGHT time, at Right price could be star performer in LT even if it underperform in ST.

3. HDFC Twins (HDFC Bank & HDFC) move almost  together in LT as well, as their CAGR return are so close 30% & 27% respectively..
Their return was so close, that we can choose either of them & get the almost same return in LT as well & even another banking stockin TED XI has also given return in range of 30s ONLY (33% to be precise), so this shows that diversification in same sector wont make much of the difference as far as LT return is concern.

4. Thermex & Voltas has not gone anywhere in last 2-3 years & these 2 stocks underperformed even I think their respective index as well
If These 2 could have also performed then I think TED XI CAGR return could have crossed 50% mark!!!

5. Best Performing MF's(
http://valueresearchonline.com/funds/newsnapshot.asp?schemecode=593 - Franklin Pharma ) CAGR return was ~29 in last 3 year.(Source: http://valueresearchonline.com/funds/repcard.asp)

So, TED XI has not ONLY outperformed both NSE & BSE Index but all the MFs by BIG margin (by whopping 50% more return than best performing MF)

I hope above analysis may help fellow TEDDies...

PS: I am pasting same xls below as well for ready reference...

Company Recm Recm Current  Gain  Recomm Date Price Price as on 31/12/2010 CAGR return
  Price Price Price (Loss)%      
Hawkins Cooker 05-Sep-06 92 1351 1368.48 92 1351 85.99
Titan Industries  18-Aug-06 749 3605 381.31 749 3601 42.65
Page Industries 08-Feb-08 430 1522 253.95 430 1525 54.30
Yes Bank 01-Sep-06 89 315 253.93 89 312 33.60
HDFC Bank 20-Jul-06 697 2320 232.86 697 2346 30.90
Blue Star 06-Oct-06 137 434 216.79 137 437 32.40
HDFC, 05-Aug-06 249 728 192.37 249 728 27.50
Voltamp  01-Apr-09 340 765 152.94 340 760 58.35
Zydus Wellness 31-Mar-10 382 594 55.5 382 600 122.22 Best Performer
Thermax  15-Oct-07 690 874 26.67 690 864 7.20
Voltas 28-Jan-08 220 215 -2.27 220 218 -0.30 Worst Performer
CAGR Return for TED XI 44.98



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Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free....


Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2011 at 10:15pm
If you consider only Hawkins, Titan, Page and Zydus( equal weightage) its been more than 100% return in 2010! 


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2011 at 8:42am
Originally posted by bharti

If you consider only Hawkins, Titan, Page and Zydus( equal weightage) its been more than 100% return in 2010! 


These are the consumer names.Smile



-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 04/Jan/2011 at 10:00am
It is surprising that in none of the 2011 - buy lists put out by brokerages there is a mention of either of these.I think only after they get into the index these guys will wake up

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Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.


Posted By: bearish
Date Posted: 05/Jan/2011 at 1:56pm
Ash. are you endorsing that the time to pick Voltamp is now as it has been underperforming quite a bit? The whole infra / power / realestate bandwagon is in a mess.. how about if one wants to choose between Voltamp and BlueStar?


Posted By: ash7979
Date Posted: 05/Jan/2011 at 2:03pm
Originally posted by bearish

Ash. are you endorsing that the time to pick Voltamp is now as it has been underperforming quite a bit? The whole infra / power / realestate bandwagon is in a mess.. how about if one wants to choose between Voltamp and BlueStar?


I don't have that much knowledge to recommend any stock, as basantji can guide us on this.

I have just put my observation from the data, which I have got while calculating CAGR return for TED XI...As per this data CAGR return from voltamp is more than 50%, that is too good from any stock...but I think this is due to the time of picking of this stock..


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Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free....


Posted By: bearish
Date Posted: 05/Jan/2011 at 2:07pm
Yup i think that same return was possible for Zydus for all those who were invested in Zydus pre March April last year...wonder what is the scalability for a company of Voltamp's size.


Posted By: datta.supratik
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2011 at 3:20pm
Hi Basantji,

Voltamp has posted 10 and 9 EPS for the Jun and Sep quarter. This would mean Rs40 odd EPS for the fiscal (just simply annualizing it). The last year's EPS has been 81. There has practically been no improvement since March08 in terms of sales or EPS growth.
Is there some expansion or work in progress which might support this gestation period?
Do you still find value in the counter and we can continue to accumulate at current levels?
Your help in this regard is highly appreciated.

Thanks and Regards
Supratik


Posted By: Skeleton
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2011 at 4:55pm
Hi Basant ji,
I have joined this forum a few days back and impressed with the ideas you suggest to people. I have gone through your recent report card also.  My question is do you have any plan to recommend any new stock in recent time. Because Zydus also is now a bit high from your recommendation.


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Skeleton


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2011 at 5:09pm
Originally posted by datta.supratik


Do you still find value in the counter and we can continue to accumulate at current levels?


Relatively I like the consumer names.



-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: ash7979
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2011 at 5:21pm
Originally posted by basant

Originally posted by datta.supratik


Do you still find value in the counter and we can continue to accumulate at current levels?


Relatively I like the consumer names.



So, you mean Page,Titan & Zydus should do well in near future then other 8 TED XI players??


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Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free....


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2011 at 6:05pm
Add Hawkins to the list.



-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: ash7979
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2011 at 6:14pm
Originally posted by basant

Add Hawkins to the list.



OOps, how I can forget Hawkins (Its the Key Stock in TED XI)...So, these 4 plus a banking stock (Anyone  of HDFC, HDFC bank or Yes bank) can give me Famous Five of TED XITongue

I think if I spread my investment in these 5 stocks then I think it safe to assume to get 25%+ CAGR return for next 4-5 years??

Basantji, your comments on my Famous FiveEmbarrassed


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Fear can hold you prisoner. Hope can set you free....


Posted By: kushal.masand
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2011 at 8:47pm
I am going a bit out of topic, bt thr is one probleI have encountered at this forum, is that it is difficult to find new threads which have been started.
So, whenever a new thread is started, then thr can be a mail generated to the respective e-mail ids....


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2011 at 8:55pm
Originally posted by ash7979


Basantji, your comments on my Famous FiveEmbarrassed


Clap


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: footy
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2011 at 9:26pm
> I am going a bit out of topic, bt thr is one probleI have encountered at this forum, is that it is difficult to find new threads which have been started.


I agree. Just like 'Active topics', can we have a 'New topics'  link at the top?


Posted By: datta.supratik
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2011 at 9:30pm
We could probably have a suggestion box for the forum...


Posted By: kushal.masand
Date Posted: 11/Jan/2011 at 11:28pm
along with the thread whr it is mentioned, wen was the last post was made on that thread, along with it thr can also be the mention of starting date of the thread.
And as I said before, for every new thread, mails sud be sent to all the existing users of the forum.


Posted By: saravana1969
Date Posted: 12/Jan/2011 at 8:05pm

I'm interested in identifying multibaggers.Consistent growth in both lines,m cap of less than 500 cr are the two major criteria for me to search such scrips.Could you help me  ?



Posted By: mane.ramesh
Date Posted: 17/Jan/2011 at 5:52pm
u need edelweiss screener

http://www.edelweiss.in/tools/screener.aspx



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Posted By: values
Date Posted: 17/Jan/2011 at 8:16pm
Thats a good screener....


Posted By: DHIRAJKANT
Date Posted: 17/Jan/2011 at 5:41am
basant ji,
time to add more stocks like page,zydus,voltas or wait ?
pls advice.
regards


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 17/Jan/2011 at 6:00am
Originally posted by DHIRAJKANT

basant ji,
time to add more stocks like page,zydus,voltas or wait ?
pls advice.
regards


The consumer names attrract me - as always.


-------------
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: rishav
Date Posted: 20/Jan/2011 at 11:31am
hi all,
i am a new investor and want to invest in TED XI stocks. each month i will put around 10k in TED11. Which stocks are could i buy at current levels and for other i will wait for some fall to enter..
Pl advice
thanks


Posted By: dipankar66
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2011 at 1:39pm
I think Ted XI stocks should be relooked now as there are two air-conditioner companies (blue star and voltas) which are surrogate real estate play, and two stocks like thermax and voltamp which are surrogate play for power industry. May be it's possible to replace voltas and voltamp with different names for the better.Wink

-------------
DD


Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2011 at 1:55pm
May be it should be converted from a cricket team to a basketball team.

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Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.


Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2011 at 3:54pm
Originally posted by prabhakarkudva

May be it should be converted from a cricket team to a basketball team.



Including the bench (10 players) or without the bench (5 players)????


-------------
When all else is lost, the future still remains. - Christian Nestell Bovée


Posted By: Rehan
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2011 at 3:55pm
Originally posted by prabhakarkudva

May be it should be converted from a cricket team to a basketball team.
 
I would be interested in TED-V or Super 5 along with TED-XI. I think TED-XI needs to be relooked and rejigged.


Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2011 at 4:34pm
The Super 5 is already in place within the 11 and i don't think anyone right now has better business and growth characteristics than them to replace them.If you want to play basket-ball(with or without bench) one can go ahead and do it.TED is very sporty that way

-------------
Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.


Posted By: Rehan
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2011 at 9:24pm
Originally posted by prabhakarkudva

The Super 5 is already in place within the 11 and i don't think anyone right now has better business and growth characteristics than them to replace them.If you want to play basket-ball(with or without bench) one can go ahead and do it.TED is very sporty that way
 
I would have a different Super 5 from TED-XI. TED-XI stocks to me are good businesses with potential to compund steadily over a period of 2 to 5 years with good amount of safety.
 
Super 5 should be highly aggressive portfolio probably with more small caps with potential to mulitply in an years time. They would certainly be more risky than TED-XI. But good for those who are looking for an aggressive portfolio.


Posted By: bitu1978
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2011 at 1:06am
Originally posted by Rehan

Originally posted by prabhakarkudva

The Super 5 is already in place within the 11 and i don't think anyone right now has better business and growth characteristics than them to replace them.If you want to play basket-ball(with or without bench) one can go ahead and do it.TED is very sporty that way

 

I would have a different Super 5 from TED-XI. TED-XI stocks to me are good businesses with potential to compund steadily over a period of 2 to 5 years with good amount of safety.

 

Super 5 should be highly aggressive portfolio probably with more small caps with potential to mulitply in an years time. They would certainly be more risky than TED-XI. But good for those who are looking for an aggressive portfolio.
Can we Be fortunste enough to kno what could be the potential 5 in your opinion ?


Posted By: Rehan
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2011 at 8:27am
Originally posted by bitu1978

Originally posted by Rehan

Originally posted by prabhakarkudva

The Super 5 is already in place within the 11 and i don't think anyone right now has better business and growth characteristics than them to replace them.If you want to play basket-ball(with or without bench) one can go ahead and do it.TED is very sporty that way

 

I would have a different Super 5 from TED-XI. TED-XI stocks to me are good businesses with potential to compund steadily over a period of 2 to 5 years with good amount of safety.

 

Super 5 should be highly aggressive portfolio probably with more small caps with potential to mulitply in an years time. They would certainly be more risky than TED-XI. But good for those who are looking for an aggressive portfolio.
Can we Be fortunste enough to kno what could be the potential 5 in your opinion ?
 
Thats the whole idea. I would like to know what are the 5 that TED thinks has the potential like the TED-XI that we currently have. If TED philiosophy is to look for long term multibaggers , this may not be the right thing to do as it would be compromising on that. But Super 5 should not be based on speculation but on fundamentals . They probaby will carry more risk as they have to be mainly small caps.
 
Personally my 5 would be :-
 
1. Symphony: Well discussed here on TED and has been going good since discovery . I think it will continue to outperform TED-XI . They are very aggressive and are ramping up their netwrok all over the globe. They seem to be the biggest cooler company in the world. If their investment in subsidiaries starts paying off  , it should continue its move up. Their other products like water heaters and industrial products are also gaining demand. Refer http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2547 - here    for in depth analysis
 
2. Ajanta Pharma:- Looks undervalued if last 5 years performance is considered. Dec 10 results also very good. FY11 expected EPS is more than 35. FY12 at the same growth should be around 50 . I would give atleast 10 PE which would give a price of 500 in on year. Analysis http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2880 - here
 
3. Mayur Uniquoters:- Their products are slowly getting recognition from the likes of BMW , Mercedeze . They seem to have a lot of cash and they give a lot of dividend ( 5 last year , expect 7 this year). Analysis http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2584 - here
 
4. HOV :- Expected EPS of more than 50 for FY11. Dividend of 2 per qtr.  Analysis http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2918&KW=HOV&PD=0 - here  . I think it is higly undervalued but highly risk as well as there are some management issues which have been brought up in the analysis.
 
5. JBF Industries:- or for that matter any polymer , BOPP, film company like polyflex or SRF or Uflex. JBF is expected to give a consolidated EPS of more than 60 FY11. This being cyclical diifcult to say if it is going to be sustained. They are dependent on crude prices and new supplies etc. But if the demand continues to grow for their producst as it has been in the last year or so , I think the prices of polymer can be sutained at current level or could go higher . But difficult to say any thing.
 
These have much higher risk compared to TED-XI which have wondeful businesses , great mgt, good cash flows, well researched.
 
I have stakes in the first 3 .


Posted By: Rehan
Date Posted: 22/Jan/2011 at 11:28am
Originally posted by Rehan

Originally posted by prabhakarkudva

The Super 5 is already in place within the 11 and i don't think anyone right now has better business and growth characteristics than them to replace them.If you want to play basket-ball(with or without bench) one can go ahead and do it.TED is very sporty that way
 
I would have a different Super 5 from TED-XI. TED-XI stocks to me are good businesses with potential to compund steadily over a period of 2 to 5 years with good amount of safety.
 
Super 5 should be highly aggressive portfolio probably with more small caps with potential to mulitply in an years time. They would certainly be more risky than TED-XI. But good for those who are looking for an aggressive portfolio.
 
If TED-XI is playing 5 day match( 5 years) , I think Super 5 should be designed for one day( one year) match 


Posted By: Electron
Date Posted: 23/Jan/2011 at 3:09pm
I like Ajanta Pharma too!


Posted By: rishav
Date Posted: 25/Jan/2011 at 3:38pm
Originally posted by rishav

hi all,
i am a new investor and want to invest in TED XI stocks. each month i will put around 10k in TED11. Which stocks are could i buy at current levels and for other i will wait for some fall to enter..
Pl advice
thanks


Someone pl help me.....


Posted By: DHIRAJKANT
Date Posted: 30/Jan/2011 at 6:55am
Basant ji ,
time to add more stocks @ that time or wait?
pls guide.
regards


Posted By: rdyn
Date Posted: 08/Feb/2011 at 9:37am
What Ted XI Stocks look like they are good to enter at CMP?



Please share your thoughts.

-------------
My aim is to read each and every post on TED!


Posted By: Dundun
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2011 at 2:55pm
I think TED report card needs little correction --

Voltamp

1-Apr-09

340

765

152.94



shouldn't it be 125% rather than 152.


-------------
Thanks,
Dundun


Posted By: go4lalit
Date Posted: 15/Feb/2011 at 4:27pm
Yes Bank


Posted By: Skeleton
Date Posted: 09/Mar/2011 at 8:06am
GOOD

-------------
Skeleton


Posted By: DHIRAJKANT
Date Posted: 17/Mar/2011 at 2:01am
basant ji,
can i buy Voltamp Transformers @ that level or wait ?


Posted By: marrylee
Date Posted: 18/May/2011 at 12:18pm
The TED forum has a lot of useful information. And congratulations on a wonderful report card.............

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Posted By: stockupdate
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2012 at 11:45am
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Copper MCX


Posted By: DIPENDRA
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2012 at 2:54pm
Do Spice Jet will fly again


Posted By: Shiv R
Date Posted: 06/Aug/2012 at 10:56am
SKS Microfinance stock is up 15 pct this month in August!
Stock price trending at 98.50INR on http://in.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=SKSM.NS - SKSM.NS


Posted By: sumitraepic
Date Posted: 27/Nov/2015 at 1:51pm
Hello sir... The equity desk report card given by you is really helpful for those traders who wanted to know about the different company's prices.


-------------
http://www.epicresearch.co/commodity-tips/ - Commodity Tips


Posted By: sumitraepic
Date Posted: 12/Dec/2015 at 1:01pm
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