Multibaggers and scale of opportunity.
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Identifying Multibaggers
Forum Discription: Discuss specific attributes that investors could look at while choosing multibaggers. Also point out certain factors that investors tend to overlook while finding multibaggers.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=259
Printed Date: 24/Apr/2024 at 12:10pm
Topic: Multibaggers and scale of opportunity.
Posted By: basant
Subject: Multibaggers and scale of opportunity.
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2006 at 1:52pm
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Multibaggers and scale of opportunity In my endeavor to look for multibaggers I have discussed two piquant features that all multibaggers possess http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=113 - small market capitalizations and http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=201 - first generation promoters . In this section I wish to present the importance of the scale of opportunity. The following table indicates the sectors which did well because of the presence of scale of opportunity and the ones where it did not.
Software: In the year 2000 the Indian software industry was worth US $ 10 billion. While US $10 billion does not look that big it was comparably very large when viewed in relation to the market caps of the leading software companies Infosys, Wipro and Satyam which were less then US $ 300 million. So we had a situation where the market capitalization of the sector leader was not even 3% of the Industry size two years down the line. While software has already given its share of multibaggers the following sectors could still throw up multibaggers. Private Banking: This was the easiest to spot but we missed because we used complicated methods. Customers were fed up with the beurocratic approach of nationalized banks and looked for alternatives. For years investors thought that signing up new customers with a minimum balance of Rs 5000 and under the fear of hidden charges would be impossible but HDFC bank rolled on or shall we say roared on. This sector was easy since the market was already there all these private banks needed to do was shift the customer from one segment (PSU banks) to another (Nationalized banks). Telecom: The Indian Telecom story was quite similar. Mobile Telephony had to happen after all what happens globally will happen in Retailing. The Indian Retail market is presently worth US $ 300 billion and the collective market cap of the leaders in the listed space was less then 1% in 2003 and is at a similar level currently. The total share of organized retail has gone up from 2% in 2003 to 3% in 2006 and is estimated to hit 10% by 2010.
Construction: http://www.theequitydesk.com/rakesh_jhunjhunwala.asp - Rakesh jhunjhunwala says that
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=202 - Private Insurance plays : The total Insurance premium to be collected in 2007 would be close to Rs 100,000 crores. The share of the state owed LIC is decreasing and the private insurers are generating higher growth rates. Max India (Market capitalization Rs 2542 croes) is the only pure play available in this sector. Other surrogate plays are http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=117 - HDFC , http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=305 - Aditya Birla Nuvo and ICICI.
Media: Globally media properties are huge. In Internet and Education: There is a huge opportunity here. The growing middle class will like to get their children educated. Broadband penetration is expected to go up from 1.3 million to 20 million by 2010. This could drive up valuations of internet companies. Over the last 12 months NASDAQ listed Indian internet companies have been in demand. Internet advertising is more target oriented and reaches the right audience. Advertisers know the kind of traffic that would visit particular sites for instance wealthy people could be looking at finance sites whereas a younger crowd could be accessing the sites that have online chat rooms. Also it is not possible to show the entire material on TV Print and Radio but on the internet relevant users could go directly into the site from the link. Unfortunately there are no choices for the investor here. http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=142 - Educomp is a good solid education play but for the internet part investors will have to look at http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - TV 18 only. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Replies:
Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2006 at 4:58pm
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Dear Mr. Basant
I always appreciate your writing for giving us valuable information in the most interesting way and in the simplest possible form. Even a bad student like me can also get the ideas properly.
Now one sector I am interested to learn is AUTOMOTIVE
The gradual influence of globalisation and the availabilty of bought out components in lower processing cost with quality make this market very favourable to the AUTOMOTIVE Industries. I have found that global automobile majors are exploring the possibilty of coming India or already in existance.
Especially the automotive component manufacturer in the level of TIREI has a chance of increasing their business over the years to come.
I wish to get a write up from you in this sector and particularly if possible with special emphasis of company like
1. Federal-Mogul Goetze (India) Limited
2. Sundaram Fastener
3. Gabriels India Limited
Best regards
------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2006 at 5:10pm
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Never researched auto components but yes this iindustry could become very big. the extrenal scale of opportunity is huge.
You know a few months back all the auto comp. stocks in US were crashing because analysts feared that outsourcing would crush the foreign (Non Indian) companies. Why I have not included Auto component in the above write up is because I wanted to put in industries and sectors that have a domestic influence and would not be affected by US ecnonomy.
ANother inteersting bit ENAM (India's best research house) had been bullish on auto component for over 10 years. But they started getting their reqards only from 2003.As they say "Time and not Timing" is the key to making money.
Would try and provide detailed views on the companies you mentioned above. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2006 at 6:25pm
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Mirza Tanneries-the adressable opportunity is huge and the management is truly entrepreneurial.Red Tape Shoes have a fairly strong brand equity in India. Recent stagnation in performance may be an opportunity. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2006 at 7:34pm
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How would you rate the managementof Mirza? Heard that they were involved some where a few years back. Is there any truth to this story.
How about Liberty Shoes?Market cap of rs 250 crores, PE of 8 times trailing, pays Rs 6 as dividend their tie up with pantaloon should generate revenues from this year?Financials are very much comparable to Mirza which also looks cheap at less then 10 times; market cap rs 260 crores but Isn't Mirza exporting a lot that could be putting it under the global economy scanner? ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2006 at 8:21pm
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I think Mirza management is good, I own this stock but it has done nothing since year and half yes you are right that they are mainly into export but now they are changing there focus to domestic market, they recently merged their sister company which is into making of ladies shoes and they recently expanded their capacity and now I think they are getting there act togeather. One sector that you missed which is emerging is Food processing their we need to find some good companies that can expand with retail and dont you think that we shifting to organised retail then their supplier like Mirza,Liberty,Zodiac etc can benifit more.Dont need to tell you that RJ holds Vadilal & Agro Tech Food in this sector.
Do you think that Vadial can expand the way RJ talks about business with scalability?
Regards,
Reetesh. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2006 at 8:52pm
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Yes food processing is another big area but then here the problem is about finding the big listed player. Some how MNC'S never go up 20 - 30 times. The moment tha parent sees the business traction coming they go in for a buy back. You could argue with Lever, Nestle but they have been slow and steady compounders of 25 - 30% rather then having rewarded shareholders with an Infy kind of return.
Agrotech could become big and with the parent's backing there is no downside risk but on the other hand the waiting period is long and uncertain. EVen If we assume that the parent Con Agra which is a multi billion dollar company would start taking more interest into India the problem is they could open up a subsidiary and start putting in the new products from there.Established MNC managemnts have been known of doing this before. But if we are looking at options from this industry then Agrotech is the company to be in. Act -II pop corn is hit though.
Vadilal is no more an Ice cream player and has diversified into frozed foods, vegetrables processed foods etc. But I am suspicious of managements who do not do anything for decades and suiddenly wake up to the world. IN all the multibaggers that you will recall the management tried becoming big right from day one.
Also the company's net profit margin is 1.33% and with an abysmaly low RoE at less then 7% for a company in the processed food industry something seems out of place. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2006 at 10:24pm
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I do happen to have a very reliable source( though not in touch for 2 years),and the management moves slowly but agressively.Mirza is at a higher level on the value scale and in international penetration,I think.Liberty is undervalued and having some temporary passing problems. In any case I bought some Mirza last week.Mirza,last quarterly was good yet the results were ignored.Perhaps,retail foray is not looked at positively by the market.
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Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2006 at 11:38pm
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Mr.Ajith I first read about Mirza tanneries dated as back as End 2004 from a survey of ET. And as a novish I took a good amount of that stock at a high price @ 215. Since then waiting. After watching the stock in consideration at The equity desk by you, I can say GOD BLESS YOU or GOD BLESS US! ------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2006 at 11:47pm
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As far as I am concerned yesterday is history ,opportunity may or may not exist today and that alone I seek to know and have time for little else even though I too have agonized over a stagnating or falling share price-often though not always just when we decide to bail out the share will move up.
Your comments would be just as applicable to Wipro in late 1980 s when the equity was around 4 crores the price was stagnating around 180 and they did have a division which the stockmarket did not much care about-software. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: sajanvm
Date Posted: 02/Sep/2006 at 8:55am
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In food processing, take a look at Heritage Foods. Very cheap on MCap/Sales basis (< 0.5). Debt free. Quoting at cheap 10-11 times earnings. Insiders bought heavily during the recent market correction.
It take a lot of time to build the milk procurement business and Heritage has built a very strong franchise in AP . Since milk producers (small farmers) are highly fragmented, having built this over many years constitutes a strong moat in my view. I don't think current valuations reflect those strenghts. I am pretty sure that a Nestle would pay much higher than current market price to acquire Heritage, if they really want to focus on the dairy segment. ------------- Sajan |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 04/Sep/2006 at 4:35am
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http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/member_profile.asp?PF=85&FID=2 - PKB2000 ,
I you want to invest in auto component you need to decide if you want to play export mkt or domestic mkt. For domestic mkt I like Amararaja. For export Bharat Forge/Sundram Faster/Sundram Clayton are good one. Bharat Forge is really good one even though it has gone up many times.
Auto component companies in US are really in trouble bcoz of cost. Largest company Delphi went bankrupt. Dana(parent of Perfect Circle- listed on bse) went B. Federal Mogul went B. VISTEON second larget autp Comp is on verge of B. Parent of exide is truggling.
US auto companies will have to step-up sourcing from because of cost in US. But big players will get big benifit. And it is long cycle(2-3 years) before you see results.
In small players REVL and Rane Brakes are interesting. Only problem is management is not impressive.
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Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 06/Sep/2006 at 4:50am
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See, simple query here. Retail is a 300 billion US$ market, inside India. That means the doestic market. Of this, even after Pantaloon reaches 30,000 crore rupees would mean a minute portion of this market. The leaders currently clearly are Pantaloon as well as Trent and soon to be Reliance. It doesn't seem so difficult for Pantaloon to reach the target.
The main point is, after 2010, what kind of rate of growth annually can we expect to see from Pantaloon(if it does reach their target by 2010), for the next 10 years from 2010-2020?
I see 2 leaders, one reliance and one pantaloon so where is the risk in investing in pantaloon right now?
In media, TV18 is a leader so what kind of rate of growth can expect to see in the next 10-15 years from TV18. Next 5 years can be gauged, but let's say 2010-2020 what can be expected rate of growth.
Till how much time can the retail and media sector growth go on? Any other growth sectors we see coming on(as India is currently on a good GDP growth) except retail? Infrastructure stocks like L&T seem to have moved up a lot.
Can anyone throw some serious light on all the above points? Thanks in advance
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 06/Sep/2006 at 7:33am
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Yes, I would agree that the scale of opportunity in Retail is very high. so there should be place for every one. After 2010 - 11 or thereabouts the growth rates would have to fall to a more resonable level of 30% - 35% for the major retailers. That is because after a point size becomes your enemy and it is muych easier for a smaller company to grow then it would be for a large retailer like http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=135 - Pantaloon Retail having annual sales of Rs 30,000 crorres to. India is growing at 7% - 8% add 5% of inflation and we have agrowth figure of 13%. So the secular long term growth rate is still 13% - 15%.Once companies see that increasing sales is not that easy they would focus on operationsl efficienceius that is what HLL did and that should keep the growth bug for another 3 - 5 years. Finally all comapneis reach the secular growth pahse and so it would be with retail also.
Raghav Bahl expects http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=29 - TV 18 to do a 70% growth in Net porfits (EPS growth will be a bit lower due to dilution) over the next 3 -4 years.Haresh Chawla (CEO) is of the view that by 2011 internet revenues should sonstitute 50% of the group's revenues. And the internet industry is presently growing at more then 100%. By 2010 the industry growth should come down to 30% - 40% but the leaders should keep growing at 50% for the next 3 - 5 years from there as well.
The cable Tv houslehold is growing at 15% - 20%. As tiome passes by addressability through CAS/DTH will get implemented, IPTV will come in. SO while sales growth could slow down a bit these new areas should boast up profit growth and between 2010 -15 if all goes well we could see a 30% + growth for the company.
Corporate growth rates do not drop from 70% to 15%. Normally they come down from 70% to some where near 30% - 40% and then continue for a while before falling further. Personally I would like to encash my holdings in all http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=135 - Pantaloon Retail
the eralier part of this section deals with a lot of new areas of growth where the scale of opportunity is very high like http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=202 - Private Insurance plays etc.
Let me add this as a caveat. It is much easier predict industry growth then it is to talk about company growth. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 1:06pm
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[QUOTE=basant] Yes food processing is another big area but then here the problem is about finding the big listed player. Some how MNC'S never go up 20 - 30
Take a look at AGRO TECH FOODS (or is it called AGRO TECH INDUSTRIES) good potential...one of RAMESH Damani's picks. |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 1:07pm
| I am just curious, if you dont mind can you tell when you had entered Pantaloon, Trent, and TV18? How early were u able to spot these goldmines? |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 1:16pm
| Also, with the Tech. companies like Infy and TCS, after 2010, what kind of secular growth rate can they keep growing at for next 10-20 years after that: 10%,15% or some other number? |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 1:21pm
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Dear Sir, Thanks for the reply. Sir If suppose u have 10 lac, and if u have to build an portfolio , then which are the stocks u will chose and what will be the percent of allocation for each of them ideally. Thanks Sir ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 1:22pm
| Also, thank you for the previous answer. Very informative. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 1:23pm
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Guess they should do 15% easily but 5 years down the won't you agree that there is too much of "a fog on the windshield" in forecasting tech companies. What happens if there is a http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=42 - US led recession and we know that can happen but timing that is a problem. Then all our projections could be disturbed. See most of these companies themselves cannot see 2 quarters ahead (except the leaders) down the road so.... ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 1:33pm
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I would buy 10 stocks from the http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=259 - emerging sectors that can become very big .Ratio is hard to decide.
SO even if one or two failk the other 8 or 9 will make it big and compensate me for that. I http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=177 - personally like investing with a startegy in which I am prepared to hold some company that does not work while the others overcompensate me for that. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 1:39pm
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I would think that a slowdown in US economy would lead to more work coming to the IT sector, especially TCS, infy and wipro. I am talking here only of the leaders as only TCS, infy and wipro have the scale to manage huge projects. What do you think basant jee
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Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 2:22pm
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Dear Sir, Thanks for the reply. I have the read the nice article forum_posts.asp?TID=259 - emerging sectors that can become very big. There i can find that u are bullish on 8 sectors. Namely
Now it will be a great help if u Please can list all the 10 stocks which u have in your mind so that i can analyze what to buy and why. What not to buy and why etc. Thanks Sir ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 2:34pm
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Out of the sectors listed at http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=259 - emerging sectors that can become very big. I would go with: Retailing
Media
Retail banking
Private Insurance (no specific player as such now)
Internet and education.
and may be multiplex
Construction and software are not emerging and and they have other problems, US economy for software,and lots of cash requiremenmts for construction.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 2:44pm
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Dear Sir Thanks for the insight. Thanks for telling u view why u are not comfortable with construction and software. For my favour i am listing the most favourite stocks in the following setors(Please do correct me if i am wrong) Retailing: Pantaloon retail
Media: Tv18
Retail banking: Hdfc
Private Insurance (no specific player as such now): Pantaloon again
Internet and education.: Educomp
and may be multiplex: PVR
Thanks Sir ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 2:46pm
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Yes that is also a valid argument and we did see top Indian companies survive the the year 2000. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 3:11pm
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Great work done Guess that should be should be HDFC bank Better to play Insurance through
Indian Rayon has telecom, Insurance(Birla Sunlife) assset management
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=117 - HDFC for Mortgage, insurance, Asset mnanagement .
The multiplex business wil grow 5 times in 5 years.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 3:28pm
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Dear Sir, Yes Sir U are right . In retail banking it was Hdfc bank. Sir u told that "Indian Rayon has telecom, Insurance(Birla Sunlife) assset management" . Then who is the owner of Birla Sunlifr. Indian rayon or Adithya birla nuvo. Please Throw some light on multiplex business. Thanks Sir ------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 07/Sep/2006 at 3:38pm
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Ind Rayon was the old name AB Nuvo is just the change in name. Multiplex is not a 10 year story but over the next 5 years this sector should do very well. The revenues should grow from Rs 6,136 crores to Rs 34,020 crores. The top 5 players shall contribute 1000 screens each. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Equity Buff
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2006 at 12:33pm
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[QUOTE=basant]Generally companies that are below 10% of the total market size are best suited since competition does not affect their sales.
Basantjee,
1) Can you pls explain what you eactly mean by above statement ?
A) Do you mean market cap of company is below 10% of yearly sector sales in the sector the company operates ?
2)Today Indian retail sector (unorganised & organised) current annual sales is USD 300 billion.
A)What was this figure in 2003 ?
B) For scale of opportunity are you basically looking at Market cap eg of Pantaloon USD 1 billion and comparing this to annual retail sector sales of USD 300 Billion ?
c) Isnt the total retail sector annual sales increasing year on year (currently USD 300 Billion in a couple of years this could become eg 310 billion and so on) and also organised retail is taking a bigger share of this every year. So not only is the total retail sector sales increasing but organised retail market share is also increasing year on year ?
Await your replies to 1) A) and 2) A), B) C).
Thanks.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2006 at 1:07pm
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Equity Buff : You put me to some real online examination at times. On a serious note you have listed the points well. Answers are in bold.
A) Do you mean market cap of company is below 10% of yearly sector sales in the sector the company operates ? YES,
2)Today Indian retail sector (unorganised & organised) current annual sales is USD 300 billion. tRUE AND IF PANTALOON DOES ASALE OF RS 4000 CRORE THIS YEAR AND RELIANCE DOES 10 TIMES THAT IT DOES NOT MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
A)What was this figure in 2003 ? THE TOTAL FIGURE WAS SLIGHTLY MORE THEN US $ 250 BILLION
B) For scale of opportunity are you basically looking at Market cap eg of Pantaloon USD 1 billion and comparing this to annual retail sector sales of USD 300 Billion ?ABSOLUTELY. LOOK AT TITAN JEWELLERYSALE OF RS 2000 CRORES AND SIZE OF MARKET OPPORTUNITY IS RS 40,000 CRORES.SO TITAN EXCEPT FOR NEAR TERM VALUATIONS IS A GREAT PLAY I WOULD THINK.
c) Isnt the total retail sector annual sales increasing year on year (currently USD 300 Billion in a couple of years this could become eg 310 billion and so on) and also organised retail is taking a bigger share of this every year. So not only is the total retail sector sales increasing but organised retail market share is also increasing year on year ?YES INCREASING BUT THE DIFFERENCE TOTAL-ORGANIZED0 IS STILL SIGNIFICANT)
Await your replies to 1) A) and 2) A), B) C). ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Equity Buff
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2006 at 7:06pm
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For scale of opportunity are you basically looking at Market cap eg of Pantaloon USD 1 billion and comparing this to annual retail sector sales of USD 300 Billion ?ABSOLUTELY. LOOK AT TITAN JEWELLERYSALE OF RS 2000 CRORES AND SIZE OF MARKET OPPORTUNITY IS RS 40,000 CRORES.SO TITAN EXCEPT FOR NEAR TERM VALUATIONS IS A GREAT PLAY I WOULD THINK. [/QUOTE] .
Basantjee,
Above you have mentioned Titan Jewellery sales of Rs. 2000 crores and market opportunity (Jewellery sector annual sales) Rs. 40000 crs.
As you normally compare Company Market cap to Market opportunity (to determine scale of opportunity for a company), of hand would you know the market cap of Titan ? to compare it to market opportunity of Rs. 40000 crs.
Also when one compares a company's Market cap to Market opportunity (annual sales of that sector) this is done not only to get an idea of the opportunity but also because growth stocks normally quote at some multiple of market cap/sales of the company, thus currently if a company may trade eg 7 times market cap/sales, on the face of it may look expensive but actually it could be a great buy bacause given the Market opportunity and with company sales increasing year on year so will the market cap of the company and thus the stock price.
TRUE AND IF PANTALOON DOES A SALE OF RS 4000 CRORE THIS YEAR AND RELIANCE DOES 10 TIMES THAT IT DOES NOT MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
Above statement, it is because the scale of opportunity is so large that many players will not only survive but also make good money.
Your views ?
Rgds.
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Posted By: Equity Buff
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2006 at 8:43am
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Basantjee,
Await your views on above post.
Thanks.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2006 at 9:30am
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Titan market cap is Rs 3528 crs and 50% will be derived from jewellery sales this year. Total sales should be Rs 2000 crores out of which sales from jewellery division could be Rs 1000 crores ONLY.
Initially the market seems reluctant to give high PE and mcap since it is not sure oif the comapny's execution plans but once the company displays execution abilities the market tends to value it a bit more richly. That is why the initial money is made in the initial years.
When the scale of opportunity compared to market cap is high competition does not affect closure. No company closed down during the mobile telephony bomm but some will surely go belly up or sell out after 2012. Same with all emerging sectors. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 09/Oct/2006 at 9:57pm
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Titan is a evergreen story and looking at the retail boom, Titan is going to get benefitted. If I go to the rural area for marriages etc, Titan is must in the buying list and people give lot of imp for having a Titan watch at their wrist.
Though this has become a speculative stock of late, the story is unfolding and has great potential going forward. ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Oct/2006 at 10:45pm
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Titan should do an EPS of Rs 23-26 for this year and an EPS of Rs 33-36 for Fy 08. I would put it as a great long term bet just that it moves too wildly for mental comfort. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 05/Dec/2006 at 1:57am
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Basantji, Somewhere I read that we should go with the most powerful stock only (one stock in the sector). I guess you prefer Pantaloon and Trent both so I am, the question is Pantaloon is way ahead of Trent in every aspect so why not one liquidate Trent holdings and put in Pantaloon? Its like holding HDFC BANK and ICICI Bank , infy and tcs/wipro holding together
------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2006 at 3:07pm
Yes but in emerging business we should have the top 2. Trent was a kind of a hedge a couple of years back. these days I am also not that bullish on Trent as much as I am in Pantaloon or Trent warrants. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tyler_durden
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 3:12pm
|
if you bought 100 Wal-Mart shares in Dec 1972 for $3,450, a year later your investment had shrunk in value to $1,400. Say you grimly hung on for another year. By the end of 1974, your Wal-Mart stake was worth $950, as its share price had tumbled to $9.5. You'd lost 75% of your investment in two years.
If you'd bought 100 Wal-Mart shares 30 years ago, for $34.5 each you invested $3,450. Today, after nine stock splits, you'd be the proud owner of 51,200 shares worth $49 each. Or: over $2.5 million. And that doesn't even factor in the dividends you reaped over the years, which if reinvested in Wal-Mart stock could be worth hundreds of thousands more.
so even after 75% erosion of ur initial investment you wud have amde a killing...
that makes it approx a 800 bagger....basant ji pantaloons has been till now a 50 bagger or more....???
walmart started with a mcap of approx 0.275 billion dollars and today it is close to 180 bn dollars .....
pantaloons is only 7000 crore mcap company....while retail is shaping up as next big thing pantaloons might be the player from retail sector to make it to sensx and nifty... ------------- If you aren't fired with enthusiasm, you will be fired with enthusiasm. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 3:36pm
|
The trick is to see the scale of opportunity. Between today and 2011 we will add about Rs 400,000 crores market to our retailing industry. The projected revenue for Reliance Retail in 2011 is Rs 100,000 crores ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 5:52pm
|
I think the dream period for a Wal MArt shareholder was between 1974 and 1994 from where on the stock has underperformed the broad market. So 800 times in 20 years is a great just that we do not know whether we are holding WalMart or Kmart (the company that almost went belly up).
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 5:58pm
|
So 800 times in 20 years is a great just that we do not know whether we are holding WalMart or Kmart (the company that almost went belly up).
-------------------------------------
Dear Sir,
Can u see any signs of Kmart in Pantaloon retail now? If u can explain us why Kmart blew up then we also be carefull in Pantaloon retail, titan etc.
------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 6:02pm
|
In 2003 Pantaloon looked like a KMart and Trent looked like a Wal Mart. Wal Mart expanded very slowly and into the smaller cities in US whereas KMart expanded like crazy into the bigger ones. here Pantaloon is expanding like crazy into the smaller cities but I do not think that we can preempt that call right now.For the moment we just have to sit tight and watch. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 6:15pm
|
Dear Sir,
In my understanding( of your text) the super fast expansion of Pantaloon retail reminds of kmart ( at it also tried to expant too fast). Sir can you be elaborate as when did kmart ( year) started his super fast expansion.
regards
sudipto
------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 6:21pm
|
Quick expansion was probably not the only reason for Kmart's near-demise. They had an 'Enron' type management, who used to buy private aircraft/yatches etc with Kmart's money. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 6:22pm
|
SOmewhere in 1970's and it went almost bust 25 years later! So we cannot make anything out of it except that in retailing a company can hide its losses and investors get time to jump off. It is not like software where the whole world crashes in 2 days. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: catchsudipto
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 6:34pm
|
Dear Sir,
I got it what you want to say. Do anyone have any idea about the matket Cap of Kmart when it burst.
------------- Make your Life as simple as possible. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2007 at 12:31pm
|
Since last few posts concern Wal-Mart, K-Mart etc....here's the latest news: Wal-Mart Stores is considering acquisitions in its home market as it seeks to open smaller stores and limit its reliance on giant supercenters for growth, according to a published report........as a way of answering Tesco's move into U.S. grocery market. (source: http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/27/news/companies/walmart_acquisitions.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007082707 - cnn money )
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: vivek.650
Date Posted: 29/Aug/2007 at 11:35am
|
FUTURE MULTIBAGGER:
Here is new entrant CELESTIAL LABS LTD. bse code 532871 @ 47/= as on 30.08.2007 in the field of biotechnology/bioinformatics & clincal research area. It is a Hyderabad based Pharma IT company and has one patent so far to it's kitty before 22 July 2007 IPO at Rs. 60/= It is in all likelyhood of future biggie .Honhaar veervan ke hott cheekane paat.I request MR. Basantji to look into this baby & biggie of future.To me it seems a early bird incentive and has a proven promoter & management which will be further proved Q-O-Q and time to come.Thanks. ------------- vivek |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2007 at 12:06pm
|
Please do not post a message twice. We already have that message in this section:
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1002&PID=35434#35434 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1002&PID=35434#35434 ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 14/Jan/2008 at 11:03pm
|
Well you posted your 'recommendation' and funds seem to be exiting this stock
http://www.bseindia.com/qresann/news.asp?newsid=%7bF30F56DA-817D-4EA5-B1AA-0685E5A06B0A - http://www.bseindia.com/qresann/news.asp?newsid={F30F56DA-817D-4EA5-B1AA-0685E5A06B0A }
Hope its not another promotor trying to rig his share price!
|
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 01/Aug/2008 at 9:58pm
|
three multibaggers i picked-
pantaloon retail 5000 crs to 100,000crs within 15 years- a 20
educomp solutions-5000 crs to 75,000crs within 12 years- a 15
punj lloyd- 8000crs to 100,000crs within 12 years- a 12
basantjee do you agree?
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Aug/2008 at 11:04pm
|
Sorry, I can't see that long. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 01/Aug/2008 at 11:26am
|
we are astonished by the way new entrants like the birlas, reliance guys, the goenkas are throwing money at retailoutlets. while a pantaloon retail probably spends money out of the cash flow, these companies are throwing money at retail as if they are gambling. even a reliance's mukeshji has admitted that they expanded too fast and they will slow down. while we think pantaloon retail probably can never be a k-Mart we also believe candidates like the birlas, goenkas with spencer and videocon guys thinking of entering could go bust.
people never learn do they ?
|
Posted By: aloksahi1971
Date Posted: 01/Aug/2008 at 11:40am
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I was wondering how many on the forum believe that eventualy Reliance Power will be a multi bager.
I have it and am bleading but some corner ( erational as it might seem ) tells me that the stock has potential.
Please reply without laughing!!!!!
|
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2008 at 1:30pm
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well as they say anything can happen in the market.........now this is the only stock in the market which has not run up.........maybe with amar singh's blessing it might even become a mega multi multi bagger......
|
Posted By: BIKRAM
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2008 at 3:52pm
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Basant Jee,
I want to ask about DishTv. It is assumed to be a big multibagger in times to come. But i think that the way it has performed in the last 6 months is really worrying. At present we have very few players in DTH like TATA Sky , Dish Tv etc. Dish TV's quarterly performances have been going from bad to worse. What will happen in the next 2 years when Videocon , Reliance and other many Groups would foray into DTH technology.
Can Dish Tv survive the competition posed by Reliance and others? I doubt.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2008 at 5:00pm
|
Actually dish has been a pain but I am wiating to see if it breaks even by fy10 as per the management. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smart_prof
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2008 at 5:06pm
|
Basant ji ,
Dish can one add at current level ...... Is there convic5tion or one shall wait for 1-2-3 qrters & buyat higher rates if he feels comfortable ..... Pl reply |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2008 at 10:33am
|
Dish tv would find it difficult to make money because of new entrants like reliance. we believe .dish tv will grow very slowly because of new companies entering the markets. we have never been bullish on media and entertainment. another multibagger from financial services is kotak mahindra bank which can grow rapidly. one has to see with foreign banks entering in 2009, a question that has to be posed is will they undercut the public sector banks by bagging more business. if yes, it will be bad for the banking industry. another stock that comes to mind is edelweiss, could become a power house.as far as reliance power is concerned, we will face a scarcity of 400,000 MW of power by 2030, this has to be fulfilled by ntpc and reliance power. ntpc is worth 185,000 crores, a huge market cap. reliance power is 40,000 crores, the scale of opportunity is huge, with anil ambani's insurance throwing unlimited cash, he can deploy it in reliance power and reliance big entertainment. the action shifts from adlabs to reliance big. we believe reliance power can easily move from 40,000 crores to 100,000 crores in 9-11 years. that's the limit we can give.
but the best multibaggers come from midcaps in the 5000 crores range like a titan, pantaloon, educomp, punj lloyd, nagarjuna construction, simplex infrastructure and edelweiss.
avoid dish tv would be our advice.
PS- will some body list an insurance company so that i could consider making an investment in it.
|
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 02/Aug/2008 at 11:44am
| we stand corrected- power defcit in india is at 150,000 MW by 2030 and 500,000 BY 2050. reliance power is a good bet. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2008 at 12:26pm
| Who is "we" ? |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2008 at 7:34am
|
we=samaj wadi party ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2008 at 7:34am
| i wrote "we" for effect. it is only "I" |
Posted By: smart_prof
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2008 at 10:24am
Pl reply basantji |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2008 at 7:51pm
| Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute recokons that even if the US were to convert all it's grain into ethanol, it would meet only 16% of America's Requirement, ethanol thus is not a viable fuel. crude could touch 200$ next year. the situation is serious. most of the oil fields are 30 years old. we have reached the peak theory where oil production will decline. the answer lies in hydrogen powered vehicles. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2008 at 10:08pm
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2008 at 9:45pm
|
since basantjee is reluctant to discuss the value of holdings. i am 30 years and have 8 lakhs invested in pantaloon retail and educomp solutions. in another 15 years, you will find it very difficult to find multibaggers in the indian markets. so i said to myself, why not invest now?
since i assume to live for 75 years, i assume i have 45 years in stocks. so at an 15-18% annualized returns every year, i think i would end up with 70 crores.
wow! not a billion dollars but i am happy with this.
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2008 at 11:48pm
Wow, what a thought!! I wish you all the luck from the bottom of my heart!!
 But just on a sidenote, how about calculating what that 70 crores would be worth 45 years from now? ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 07/Aug/2008 at 10:33am
| 50,000-60,000 crores. that's huge man. rj would find it difficult to make money from most of his stock holdings except for pril, titan, bilcare, crisil,etc. |
Posted By: cooldude
Date Posted: 08/Aug/2008 at 2:57pm
|
Dear Basantji, Your writeup at the beginning of this topic is excellent. I have read quite a few books on investment. But, you have given us the essence of investing in multibaggers and in such simple language and so in all sincerity, I would say that I gained more from your writing than from many books.
Since we are the world's secong largest country (in terms of population) and since we all have to eat to survive, why are the companies dealing directly or indirectly with agriculture sector (pesticides, solvent extraction, milk processors, rice processors etc.) such laggards in the market. Only in the last year or so we are hearing some buzz about Lakshmi Energy, Rei Agro, Riddhi Sidhi Gluco. We import huge amounts of edible oil, yet our solvent extraction companies are not great investments. Are there no multibaggers in this sector? ------------- You can't see the future through the rearview mirror - Peter Lynch |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 08/Aug/2008 at 4:25pm
|
Multibaggers from sectors that are cyclical are an exception and not the norm. The biggest trigger in a multibagger is a PE rerating and ince cyclicals trade at low PEs it becomes difficult to generate a multibagger
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 14/Aug/2008 at 3:46pm
|
basantji,
i am wary of you allowing posts like "microcaps- when value will unlock?". my answer would be "never". as bufffett would say a minimum of ten years of good performance is required before we can assess a company. one has to maintain a balance betwen greed and fear. these small caps still have got a long way to go in terms of reaching good corporate standards. indian stock market is a repository of speculative stocks.thus i would say if you want multibaggers, stick with midcaps. i have already reiterated midcaps like punj lloyd, pantaloon retail, educomp solutions, titan. if one wants small caps, simplex infrastructure is a good stock. however, it would be wise to wait till it becomes a mid cap.
india is permitting the nuclear industry. while manmohanji promises it to be the cure for all energy problems. facts do not point to that. even the tarapur reactor supplies power at 8rs per unit after considering the disposal and all other factors. the indigenous reactors cost 8 crore RS per MW and with imported reactors would cost 10RS per MW. even if we get 10 RS per unit, that would be a bonus. will the indian government subsidise the cost i wonder?
|
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 14/Aug/2008 at 8:01pm
|
WHERE CAN THE SENSEX GO?
SINCE RIL IS A CONSTITUENT OF THE SENSEX AND RIL HAS A MARKET CAPITALISATION OF 100 BILLION US$, IT IS DIVERSIFYING INTO SOLAR POWER, WHICH IS PROMISING AND A SUNRISE SECTOR. LET'S SAY IN ANOTHER 30 YEARS IT REACHES 300 BNUS$. WHICH MEANS THE SENSEX CAN GO UP BY 3-4 TIMES AND REACH 64,000 IN 30-35 YEARS. BUT I SAY WHY WORRY ABOUT THE SENSEX? IF A LARGE CAP RISES BY 1X, A GOOD QUALITY MID CAP WOULD RISE BY 2X. STICK TO MID CAPS WHICH ARE OF GOOD QUALITY.
|
Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 14/Aug/2008 at 12:31pm
True these things are there.
Just like BIO FUELS are less cost savings in terms of mileage in car in compared to Gas etc. (the cost per mile in BIOFUEL goes higher.)
But we can hope with the advancement of technology the cost of production can go down in future. The concept of renewable sources of energy incurs high cost in its initial stage but in anyway we need the substitute of existing fuel energy with the hope that future technology will produce cheaper eco friendly and less accident free Nuclear energy. The source raw material Thorium etc in anyway is not very costly and is plentiful. ------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso |
Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 14/Aug/2008 at 12:33pm
I wish to make it little bolder from my (whatever) experience
"BUT I SAY WHY WORRY ABOUT THE SENSEX? IF A LARGE CAP RISES BY 1X, A GOOD QUALITY MID CAP WOULD RISE BY 2X. STICK TO MID CAPS WHICH ARE OF GOOD QUALITY." ------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso |
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 19/Aug/2008 at 10:46pm
|
i just purchased a book "buffetology" by mary buffett in which she- if i may use the word- exposes warren buffett's strategies and a few formulaes like intrinsic value. i have always wondered whether it makes sense for us to use these formulaes as we do not have billions of dollars to invest. it is necessary for the mutual funds who run the rat race daily weekly and monthly and who constantly fear when do investors redeem their holdings.
what makes me sense is investing in "cosumer monopolies" and buying good companies at fair prices instead of running after cement and steel stocks. sure, if steel is terribly undervalued we could go for it. warren is always reluctant to buy a coco cola under the normal pe valuations of 50. he waits for a crisis and buys cheap like he did in 87 when "new- coke" was a disaster. do we encounter such instances in the indian marketplace? very rarely. when sail is trading at 8rs at the turn of the millenium it was a good buy. but steel and cement stocks are now trading at 10 pe which i think are fair prices for fair companies and better to be avoided. as munger always says, it is better to buy good companies at fair prices than to buy fair companies at good prices.
hence, now we come to the same topic of identifying multibaggers. at the cost of repeating myself this is the best time if anyone has a crore to buy lock, stock and barrel a 20 bagger like pantaloon retail, a 20 bagger like educomp solutions and a 12 bagger like punj lloyd. you will rue this opportunity!
it is also necessary to note that when a new sector opens up, it is always better to buy the first company than the pioneers like microsoft, etc. which is why educomp is always better thn everonn and core or whatever!
what are the future sectors.i wonder. india can make the transition to wood plantations from steel and cement which can be used in housing. a lot of jobs can be created reckons itc's deveshwar.
|
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 19/Aug/2008 at 10:48pm
| i stand corrected. my english is not eloquent as basantji. better to buy the pioneer like microsoft and educomp than to buy an everonn. |
Posted By: Rinku
Date Posted: 20/Aug/2008 at 3:36pm
|
Guys any idea on BGR energy, XL Telecom,Auropro solution and godrej industries? Pls enlighten....
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Aug/2008 at 4:00pm
|
God Inds is RD's favourite company is coming out with an IPO of God Properties but apart from that I am not aware of anything spectacular happening in the operating business.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 20/Aug/2008 at 4:37pm
The company is enjoying high valuations on the basis of its real estate holdings. It is difficult to arrive at its fair value.
|
Posted By: hallmark
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2008 at 5:48pm
|
The problem with buying I.T and Pharma stocks which are mid caps or small caps is this... Most of the companies operate in a niche area which means the market opportunity is not huge. Moreover, these companies are always acquired by the larger companies. Which probably reiterates the point which is that long term bets cannot be made in this sector. Thus one has no option but to stick with retail, education and infra sectors. |
Posted By: RishiMilan
Date Posted: 30/Aug/2008 at 6:08pm
|
Indian IT space is dominated by companies in services and they all have LINEAR business model i.e. the revenue will be directly proportional to head count. Also as RJ mentions, we can'texpect Indian IT services command higher margins than IBM. Product companies, particularly those with their own IP will be the way to go... One can expect non linear growth in revenue in that domain. However product business is risky and there are more failures than success stories.
One stock which comes to my mind is "Geodesic Information Systems"
Even the innovation leader like Apple was on the verge of collapse at one point of time before they came out with iPOD.
Geodesic BTW can ride global craze in iPhone since its flagship product Mundu is amongst top 10 applications available on iPhone platform.
|
Posted By: pirate
Date Posted: 10/Sep/2008 at 6:51pm
|
insurance sector wiil be one of the bigest gainer for next move.
max india is next infosys kind of returend give u very short time.
keep in mind.WARWN B... MAKE MONEY IN INSURANCE SECTOR.
|
Posted By: sureshbazi
Date Posted: 10/Sep/2008 at 12:51pm
|
Basantji, For identifying multi baggers which of these critiera are best one A company should have 1) Value 2) Growth 3) Value + Growth. Could you please give some examples.
------------- 'It is only when you combine sound intellect with emotional discipline that you get rational behavior.' – WB. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 10/Sep/2008 at 7:38am
|
Value + growth is the best option. There are several examples TV18 at 10 times PE and growing at 50% CAGR was value + growth in October 2003; so was Pantaloon at 8 times PE and growing at 100% CAGR in APril 2003; Nagarjuna Construction at 4 times PE (not sure of the exact number) and growing at 60% was value + growth in April 2003....
Problems arise when one has to estimate whether the growth is sustainable over a number of years or will be confined only to a couple of years. For instance there are several companies that keep growing at 40% for 2 years and then hit an air pocket. It is here that management and scalability of the business model comes into play.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kumardiwesh
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2008 at 1:25pm
|
Basantji, do u think we are getting to those levels where we actually identify some of the stocks as multibaggers.
I mean a P/E of 10 and 40% growth would make a multibagger over a period of 2-3 years. ------------- "History does not tell you the probability of future financial things happening" - Warren Buffett |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2008 at 1:38pm
|
Several large caps are available at a PE of 10 times fy10 one that come to mind is Titan 11 times Fy10. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2008 at 1:51pm
|
also look at mcap to sales tian should do 4000crs for current yr in sales and look at its mcap btw opening 20 more stores in gujaratata ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: BIKRAM
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 2:01pm
|
BASANT JEE,
In this Mayhem, since everyone has lost including me, What 2-3 good quality stocks would you suggest . In my portfolio I have 4-5 momentum stocks in which I have lost about 60-70 percent of my investment and I want to switch over from these stocks to some good quality stocks to recover my money in 2-4 years. So which stocks would you Suggest ?
I want to switch over to Punj Lyod . Is this a Wise decision? please help
|
Posted By: pramodjain
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 3:25pm
HDFC, HDFC BANK, TITAN Seems they will come back and fight in the bear market ------------- "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful." |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 3:33pm
HDFC & HDFC Bank understandable but I can't understand the logic of Titan (a consumer discretionary stock), leading or participating in a fight-back. ------------- |
Posted By: KAILASHAGAL
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 4:27pm
|
HI YES INSURANCE SECTOR WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN NEXT BULL MARKET. IF WE ANALYSE PRIVATE INSURANC PLAYER AS UNDER MENTIONED LIST
BAJAJ ALLIANZE
ICICI PRU
RELIANCE
MAX NEWYORK
ING VYSYA
BHARTI AXA (NOT LISTED)
TATA AIG (NOT LISTED)
FUTURE CAPITAL
SO WE NEED TO SEE WHICH WILL BE LONG TERM PLAYER WITH HIGHER SCALABILITY
I THINK INVESTMENT IN MAX NEWYORK WILL GIVE VALUE + GROWTH
KAILASH AGAL
|
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 1:48am
One should ask oneself if he/she would pay for a chat app and that too on a mobile.
I would actually like to be paid to try something new on my mobile.
|
Posted By: gcpradhan1
Date Posted: 18/Oct/2008 at 7:59am
No doubt HDFC Bank and Titan etc going to protect your capital in short term or in this bear phase, but since your capital is already 70 % gone, there is hardly any need for protecting them rather than I feel better to put the money where the return rate is more even though the risk associated is also high !! Just my 2 cents ! ------------- Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years - Buffet |
Posted By: gbhupesh
Date Posted: 24/Dec/2008 at 2:26pm
|
If there any free screening tool where I can filter companies with P/E ratio of less then 6 and NPM more then 18%. Or any one can help me with the list. Thanks Bhupesh |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 24/Dec/2008 at 3:02pm
|
http://%3cA%20href= - http://content.icicidirect.com/research/customsearch.asp?icicicode=type%20symbol ">Try the stock screener of ICICI Direct.
However, you can search on only one parameter at a time. So you will have to filetr P/E <6 and NPM>18 separately and manually search for comapnies that pass both filters.
|
Posted By: gbhupesh
Date Posted: 24/Dec/2008 at 3:57pm
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Yes, if no other way that' the only option .. Thanks |
Posted By: learn2earn
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2009 at 2:05pm
|
Hi Teddies, Identified few stocks for investment.Need your valuable advice: 1.Core Projcts 2.Natural Capsules 3.Nava Bharat Ventures 4.Niryat Sam Appparel 5.Oil Country Tubular 6.Sarda Energy Minerals 7.Seamec Ltd 8.Tata Sponge Iron 9.Uni Abex Alloy Products Ltd I have tried to filter on basis of : 1.low debt/equity,low p/e 2.ROE,Net Margin,3 yr Sales and Profit > 15 % I am sincerely awaiting your valuabale advice and past experiences while dealing with such kind of companies. Thanks. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 04/Aug/2009 at 3:06pm
|
core is good stock and on run for last few sessions ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |