Prasad's Portfolio
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Portfolio Check Up
Forum Discription: Members may put forward their portfolios dor comments from other members. The final call will obviously be taken by the investor himself.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2562
Printed Date: 28/Apr/2024 at 5:17am
Topic: Prasad's Portfolio
Posted By: prasad20
Subject: Prasad's Portfolio
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2009 at 11:38pm
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Hello!!
I have been a regular visitor to this forum and found the contents very informative.
Seniors, Can you please take a look at my portfolio and suggest me any changes which will help achieve gains of 20-25% CAGR. My investment horizon is long term
Energy
ONGC 4.20%
OIL 5.93%
Petronet LNG 3.45%
Software
TCS 10.41%
Sasken 2.03%
3I Infotech 2.55%
Medical Equipment
Opto Circuits 3.15%
Telecommunication
Bharati 9.93%
RCOM 5.22%
Pharma
BIOCON 1.45%
Power
Adani Power 2.19%
Reliance Energy 4.60%
NTPC 8.85%
NHPC 3.01%
Financials
IDFC 1.50%
Syndicate Bank 1.50%
Bank of Maharashtra 4.85%
Indian Bank 1.60%
Engineering
PRAJ 7.97%
L&T 5.37%
Chemicals
Deepak Fertilizers 1.65%
Shipping
GE Shipping 6.08%
Cement
Mangalam Cement 2.50%
Regards
Prasad
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Replies:
Posted By: shadows
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2009 at 5:39am
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Hi prasad, Price is more important than the percentage and script . need to give the aquisition price.  but in case of Sasken .......I think this is a hold for investors and they can buy on dips. What price u bought it.  And I think it is not needed to talk about Opto........Simple 'hold for long term' Rest will take care by Super Seniors  and finally......................WELCOME |
Posted By: 9StockPortfolio
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2009 at 8:39am
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On TED, usually people do not disclose Price & Qty.. ------------- Pursuit of Value |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2009 at 9:03am
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i guess disclosing purchase price would be OK, although quantity is a strict no-no.
best wishes, samir. ------------- |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2009 at 9:25am
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Hi
Telecom stocks as long term investments seem to have lost most of their charm because of cut throat competition. You could switch to good realty stocks as a contrarion bet or if you want to go with the flow, you can go for fmcg/fmcg ancillary stocks. Rest of them seem okay for the longer term. Regards, Hitesh. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: shadows
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2009 at 9:26am
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Hi, Iam not asking for the quantity.........just want to know the price.If we don't know the price of the bought stock,how can we discus about the stock. Is it worthy to buy RIL@3000 now.although RIL is the strongest script we need to pick it at a lower price or at reasonable price..we cant give the same sugg. for the guy who picked it up at 2000 and to the guy picked it up at 980.  @SamirJI ........can i know the problem with disclosing the qty.i knew it is a strict no-nobut why no-no |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2009 at 9:58am
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It would be a good idea to discuss stocks in the portfolio based on current prices. For that we don't need purchase price. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2009 at 11:08am
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Hi,
As for as pricing is concerned I have invested through the bull run till index was at 16000. Then I got scared of the valuations. Again started investing in the downturn from index of 14000-8000--and to present...
I am a conservative investor. I have not invested in momentum stocks like Realty (because of high valuation earlier and management concerns)
Let me know if there are high conviction value stocks which I can invest in
Regards
Prasad
|
Posted By: PKB2000
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2009 at 11:23am
------------- I am always doing that which I cannot do, in order that I may learn how to do it. ~Pablo Picasso |
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 09/Dec/2009 at 11:57am
Since no one has pointed it out(not even Basant ji )  ,
sir why no consumer oriented stocks? ------------- Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time. |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 11/Dec/2009 at 9:40am
| Any consumer oriented stock which I can pick for the long term |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 11/Dec/2009 at 9:45am
I am not scared but cautious. Things have not become so frothy as they became end 2007 but I guess we will get there...
Regards
Prasad
|
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 11/Dec/2009 at 10:00am
Jyothy laboratories looks good for longer term. Currently available at around a pe of 14-15 based on fy10 eps of around 11-12 with good products like ujala and maxo. I personally am invested in vivimed labs which is into speciality chemicals and is one of the biggest producers of triclosan (used in tooth pastes) and hair dye intermediates. For me this is an fmcg ancillary stock available even at 130 odd levels at a pe of around 5. Half year eps at 15 and full year expected to be 27-30. Debt was an overhang but promoters have allotted themselves some warrants at 120 and some fii has converted convertible bonds at around 185. ------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: master
Date Posted: 12/Dec/2009 at 4:35pm
10 consumer plays with large market shares, almost monopolistic, in their respective core businesses are - HUL, GSK Consumer, ITC, Nestle, Gillette, Colgate, Asian Paints, Marico, Titan & Jyothy lab.
All of them are well researched. Also, there is a recent report from motilal oswal covering these.
Can do your due diligence & take your pick based on your conviction.
------------- Someone’s sitting in shade today because someone planted a tree long time ago. |
Posted By: hit2710
Date Posted: 12/Dec/2009 at 5:36pm
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I went through a recent report by Prabhudas Liladhar which emphasizes the entry of P&G in a huge way into India and which could impact some companies adversely.
------------- Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart. |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 06/Jan/2010 at 8:58pm
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Added Sintex, Honda Siel, BOI to the portfolio Energy Sintex 1.74
cheers Prasad |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 3:07pm
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Hi
Need your inputs on my current portfolio. Would prefer negatives on any of the companies
Energy %
ONGC 2.92 OIL 8.32 Reliance 3.94 Software
TCS 3.82 Tech Mahindra 0.66 Sasken 1.60 Mastek 1.42 3I Info Tech 3.66 Opto Circuits 2.17 Reliance Comm 3.32 Bharati Airtel 5.92 Pharma
Biocon 1.82 Power
Adani Power 1.86 Reliance Energy 2.00 NTPC 8.00 NHPC 2.69 SJVLIM 2.15 REC 2.40 Financial Sector
Syndicate Bank 2.04 Bank Of Maharashtra 1.23 BOI 4.69 CAN HOME 3.42 South Indian Bank 0.28 IDBI Bank 0.31 Engineering
PRAJ Industries 5.05 L&T 7.34 Sunil HiTech 0.34 Chemicals
Deepak Fertilizers 1.61 Shipping
GE Shipping 2.06 Bharati Shipyard 0.21 Construction
ILFS Transport 5.77 JP Associates 2.35 J Kumar Infrastructure 1.15 Others
Sintex 2.94 NMDC 0.57 Cheers
Prasad
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Posted By: adityancs
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 3:29pm
| In Pharma, Dr.Reddy, CIPLA, Cadila & Aurobindo are long term bets. |
Posted By: karn
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 4:38pm
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My views:
Energy: The chosen players does not likely to give you 25-30 CAGR you expect. But they would provide you come cushion in case of market crash. IT & Software: If you have to choose more than one company, choose one which is market leader and other from mid/small cap Telecomm: Choose only one. My personal fav. is Bharti. If the sector as whole revives than Bharti will get the maximum benifit. Power: If one must choose then I'll choose Torrent Power over others. You may check the financials. Finance: Again one from private and one from public sector should be sufficient Engineering: Larsen is a good choice but again when you have large cap established companies in your portfolio they do bring some stability but to expect fireworks like 25-30 CAGR is bit difficult. Shipping: No idea. Cant make up my mind on this sector. From whatever I have read here so far GE shipping seems to be the best bet. Chemicals: Actually you have listed fertilizer company. The entire sector is heavily subsidized and therefore not sure about their future. In chemicals I dont understand much except soda ash. Soda ash is primarily used in detergents and soap making. I would recommend you to go though Aditya Birla Chemicals and Tata Chemicals. ummm may be Nirma. Constrcutions: have you looked at Ahluwalia Contracts? In misc. category you can go though other wonderful stocks discussed in stock synopsis section. Regards, K. P.S. Just though I would share my views. Regarding investing, I'm probably your junior but I'm learning and slowly getting somewhere. ------------- “Invert, always invert.” |
Posted By: adityancs
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 5:00pm
| In Engg Sector, Cummins, Honeywell are strong performers. However, shares of these companies should be purchased only on dips. |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 5:25pm
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Hi Karn,
Thanks for your inputs, through this forum want to get a different perspective...I agree the protfolio is not what will generate fireworks...
I am sceptical about buying Stocks above 15 PE(no big theory, its just my Psychological limit). My expectation is for 20% CAGR and capital protection
I am trying to get some growth stocks and mid caps into the Portfolio, however not many are available at resonable PEs. Some Mid Caps which I have added with my reasoning
J Kumar Infrastructure (PE of 8, low compared to Peers, consistent profitability, low debt))
Sintex (Improved prospects, PE of 12)
Sunil Hitech (Improved prospects, low PE)
Sasken (IT stock available at book)
Opto Circuits (Growth stock at resonable PEs)
3I Info (Most of the negatives have been factored in the price)
Praj ( low debt, low PE)
Bank of Maharashtra (available at book)
Syndicate Bank (available below book, low PE)
IDBI (available at book)
Would like to understand negatives in them...
Cheers
Prasad
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Posted By: karn
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 6:01pm
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I don't agree with investing having low P/E in mind. Certain sectors inherently have high or low P/E. May be you should check out historic P/E values of the target company and compare it with industry average. However if you want that then let me suggest you some stocks to study with low P/E.
1. Symphony Comfort 2. Hawkins Cooker 3. TTK Prestige 4. Esab India 5. Glodyne Techno 6. Mphasis 7. VST Tiller 8. Bliss GVS Pharma 9. NESCO 10. Goodricke Group 11. Clariant Chemicals 12. Ahluwalia Contract 13.Coromondal International 14. Mindtree 15. Nava Bharat Ventures 16. Sabero Organics 17. Supreme Industries 18. Empire Industries 19. Vinati Organics 20. Swaraj Engines. I can provide 20 more. Please check the latest P/E. My list is month old. These are some companies with high ROCE ROE . I do not know about all of above companies and its biz. This list was compiled by me as an exercise of finding high ROE ROCE companies. Cheers K. ------------- “Invert, always invert.” |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 6:28pm
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Thanks Karn for the list.....
Cheers
Prasad
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Posted By: karn
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 6:47pm
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Prasad, I'll try to explain what I make out of P/E
P/E = Current Market Price/Earnings per share. From this equation CMP = P/E x EPS EPS understanding comes from fundamental study about the company. Various factors such as growth in sales, less interest (debt), prices of raw materials and other expense and last the growth in EPS itself can be studied through the financials from annual reports. You can make an educated guess about the growth rate and multiply with existing EPS. Now comes the P/E part. Which i think comes from the speculation side inbuilt in stock trades. After checking historic P/E of the same company and comparing with sector/industry average, one needs to check the possibility of P/E expansion or reductions. Personally I only check P/E to see whether I'm paying too much for a stock or not. I'll try to Give example Stock A cmp of 100 Rs with EPS of 10 Rs will give you P/E of 10 If you think that company can grow at 20 % in earnings in next financial year and P/E will remain constant at 10. Your projected CMP would be = 10 x 12 = 120 Rs. If you find out that the company in past was selling at avarage P/E of 15 and market will notice the fact and provide you with P/E of 15 than the calculation would be 15 x 12 = 180 Rs of target price. I'm new to investing hence, comments from other Teddies are most welcomed. Cheers, K. ------------- “Invert, always invert.” |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 05/Jul/2010 at 8:33pm
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Karn,
I agree with you, I use P/E to benchmark against peers and also keep me away from sectors which are currently hot favorites. I use another measure book value, especially with cyclicals. Ofcourse I am a novice in this field and am sure these measures are not exact science
Cheers
Prasad
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Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 11/Sep/2010 at 1:15pm
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Hi
My Latest Portfolio....Please evaluate and provide feedback, any negatives would be most welcome.
Cheers
Prasad
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Posted By: adityancs
Date Posted: 11/Sep/2010 at 3:30pm
| Why do not you reduce the number and have a concentrated portfolio for better monitoring and return. |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 11/Sep/2010 at 12:49pm
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The reason for not having a concentrated portfolio is because I believe that I donot have the insight to identify sure shot winners...The only control which I have is the price at which I will buy a stock. Hence I spread my net wide (around 30 stocks) and look out for stocks which are good and are resonably priced. The disadvantage to this approach is that I might not get as much returns as a concentrated portfolio but then I believe the risk associated with my portfolio would also be less. I would be happy if get a 15-20% CAGR on my portfolio Cheers
Prasad
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Posted By: TCSer
Date Posted: 11/Sep/2010 at 1:14am
| Good strategy |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 11/Sep/2010 at 8:53am
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expect index related returns from the above portfolio. so why not invest in the index itself or the nifty junior which may beat the above.
------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 11/Sep/2010 at 10:36am
The argument to this point can be in aspiration. This is not specific personal/portfolio comment. if a person "aspires" to be a successful investor, he will have to wet his feet. if he always invest in index based funds, he may never learn and gain confidence on his judgment to one day start investing on his own. This will never allow him to earn "potentially" higher returns than the market. At the start almost everybody is a novice and they learn over a period of time. Therefore, Depending on the inclination to be with the market, this decision can be taken. |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 11/Sep/2010 at 10:51am
Well, have read in books that in mature markets the index will give as much return as an actively managed portfolio over the long term but in emerging markets such as ours probably that might not be true....
But the real answer for not selecting an index fund is nothing beats the satisfaction of conducting the intellectual exercise of stock selection, hence I have my portfolio and also invest in activley managed mutual funds....
Managing my portfolio has motivated me to read excellent books, keep myself updated on the latest happening, join this forum, discuss with individuals with different point of view which I would not have done if I had put everything in a passively managed fund
I would really appreciate if you see any gaps/flaws in the portfolio which I can correct....
Cheers
Prasad
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Posted By: nikhil090
Date Posted: 11/Sep/2010 at 11:08am
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reliance comm is a strict no no for long term investors.. bharti may be better if you are looking at sector exposure. syndicate bank, canfin homes, bank of maharastra, idbi bank, canara bank - are they trading bets? Because for long term there are better stories available. If you are buying because they are cheap and you expect this cheapness to go away in short term then they may be ok otherwise no.. |
Posted By: vaib
Date Posted: 11/Sep/2010 at 11:50am
| To resist the temptation of buying more and more companies, ask yourself in a sector which company should perform better and stick to it. You will have to take a call and risk. Simply saying "I really don't know which one is better" wouldn't help. Start by looking at the financials of companies. |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 12/Sep/2010 at 12:15pm
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Reliance communication has been a disappointment, I am slowly but surely moving out of all ADAG stocks... As far as mid cap banking is considered, these were brought considering the financial and domestic consumption theme which the current bull run is based on. All were brought near or below book value when all the tier one banks and HFCs had run away. These are medium term bets and have outperformed in the last 6-9 months. I will be reducing as valuation catch up.
With NIFTY above 23 I have stopped increasing the portfolio and am just churning the portfolio and waiting for the blowoff or correction...Am good with either of them...What are you guys doing?...Thoughts are welcome
Cheers
Prasad
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Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 12/Sep/2010 at 12:44pm
Well my quandry is that the best companies in a sector are now available at super premium valuations which I am not comfortable with, so I settle for better companies which are available at resonable valuations...I have no control on the price of the stock but I try to control the price at which I buy...I buy in few sectors and few companies in each sector as I do not know which sector and which companies the market will take fancy to. My focus is to control my urge to get carried away by the market gyration and the current market fancy and be as pragmatic as possible which in itself is a struggle for me... That having said, I am a novice and have been actively investing on my own for just 6 years (experience of one boom bust cycle only)
I would appreciate suggestions on few good companies available at resonable valuations
Cheers
Prasad
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Posted By: vaib
Date Posted: 12/Sep/2010 at 2:03am
| Well Now market is 32 months peak, what do you expect :P ? Also plenty of members have posted their portfolio, you can have a look at that. Try to keep high growth stock in portfolio at higher price than average stocks at average price. If you are comfortable in midcap then plenty available at so called reasonable price. But given the sensex all time high I can't really give any advice. Best is many members keep saying added x stock, that helps. Add your positions slowly so that it doesn't become "deer caught in headlight". |
Posted By: bhowman
Date Posted: 12/Sep/2010 at 11:00am
Very good advice. That's what I am doing.
Will you please explain the statement "Try to keep high growth stock in portfolio at higher price than average stocks at average price" ------------- That which is so far is actually so near. |
Posted By: vaib
Date Posted: 12/Sep/2010 at 11:42am
| People can make more money even by investing in very cheap stock. Basically there could be n number of ways which I might not even understand. But probably the safest way to make money is by investing in growth stock and growth most of the times don't come by cheap. So a dilemma occurs like Prasad has that valuations are not kind of real. Even if you look at TED11 or favorite stock of many members like zyduss or titan, they aren't cheap from any angle. Or take route taken by hit ji, identify undervalued stock with high growth or basically a midcap or smallcap. These would bring more returns than average stock bought at average prices. Valuations can be looked with many angles. By looking only at PE you do justice neither with yourself nor with stock. |
Posted By: bhowman
Date Posted: 12/Sep/2010 at 11:57am
Thank you Mr Vaib, for enlightening me. ------------- That which is so far is actually so near. |
Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 18/Sep/2010 at 12:03pm
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I have recently invested in
SREI Infrastructure Finance at an average price of 92...The driver for the investment is 1) Good growth prospect in Infrastructure Finance sector 2) NIM of 4% 3) Resonable valuations...
Nibling on Balmer Laurie ...The driver for the investment is 1) Good prospects in packaging 2) Good ROE, ROCE available at resonable PE
Would require your feedback on this stock and long term prospects....
Cheers
Prasad
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Posted By: prasad20
Date Posted: 05/Nov/2010 at 1:52pm
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Hi TEDs
Wanted some opinion on Jyoti Structures....Bought at around 136... Reason for buy---Good visibility on growth (good order book), India focused transmission company, reasonable valuations.....
Cheers
Prasad
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Posted By: skotra
Date Posted: 12/Nov/2010 at 1:52pm
| Is Mphasis still a choice for holding ? |
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|
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