Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's Portfolio - March 2
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
Forum Discription: DIscuss about the strategies followed by the great investors. Share an idea which would have impressed the masters. Try and bring their International experience into the Indian Markets.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=2138
Printed Date: 29/Apr/2024 at 1:18pm
Topic: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's Portfolio - March 2
Posted By: basant
Subject: Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's Portfolio - March 2
Date Posted: 30/Apr/2009 at 8:55pm
Colors in blue represent stocks where holdings have gone up and in red represent stocks where holdings have gone down. Piquant Observations: · His top 5 holdings account for 63.24% of his portfolio and his top 10 holdings account for almost 86.44% of his portfolio. · The average Market cap of the portfolio is around Rs 925 crores and the average PE is 16 times trailing. These are as per the Money control website. · The recent stock market crash this portfolio has seen a notional loss of around 70%. From the January highs. · In the last quarter he has added to his holdings in Lupin, Agro Tech Foods, Autoline, Karur Vysa Bank. He has reduced exposure to Titan, Nagarjuna Construction, Provogue . · Companies with highest trailing PEs in the portfolio Titan and CRISIL have outperformed the other stocks in this super carnage. · Some stocks in the portfolio like Nagarjuna Construction and Punj Lloyd are down by close to 80% from the peak but if one can survive the market he can live to fight another day and that is precisely what Rakesh Jhunjhunwala is doing. · Companies like Titan, Pantaloon Retail, Crisil, and Praj where Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has made most of the money are sector leaders. Karur Vysa Bank has been a multibagger for him but as Buffett professes one need not buy the biggest Bank to make most of the money. · All the companies where Rakesh jhunjhunwala has made most of his money started as mid/small caps and later grew with time. But the ones with the smallest market cap Vadilal Industries has done nothing. This indicates that small market cap is anecessary but not a comprehensive tool for creating a multibagger. · This portfolio has the latest market cap and the Price to earnings ratio as sourced from money control. The average http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=382 - 16 times! But most of these smaller capitalized companies in sectors that are scalable. · The underlying theme in the portfolio remains domestic consumption (Titan and Pantaloon,), Infrastructure (Nagarjuna Construction and Punj Lloyd) , pharma (Lupin and Bil Care) and financial Services (Crisil and Karur Vysya Bank.) · It is hard to find a cyclical or commodity stock in his portfolio. · Unlike the general investor none of these stocks are large caps in the true sense of the definition. Of Course he could be holding future positions in large caps but the point that I am trying to make is money is made in http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=113 - . The notional losses that an investor can suffer are also the highest in these stocks. It is very important for an investor not to convert these notional losses in actual losses by selling the shares in despair. · Most of these stocks are being held for over 5 years. Companies like Titan, Pantaloon Retail fall in that category. Others like Crisil are being held for as long as 10 years. – Clearly Time and not timing is the key to these markets. · Almost all these companies are looking at a huge http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=259 - whether it is a Titan or a Pantaloon a Nagarjuna Construction or Lupin the sheer size of the addressable market is humongous. – Morale of the story “See the Bigger Picture”. · These shares are held by Rakesh and his wife Rekha Jhunjhunwala and form a part of his disclosed portfolio. He could be holding more shares through companies, trusts, proprietary accounts which are not in the public domain. The details have been procured from BSE India.com and are from companies where he holds more then 1% stake. · To know more about investing legends see the section http://www.theequitydesk.com/globe_troting_macro_players.asp%5dWorlds%20greatest%20Investors%5b/URL%5d - http://www.theequitydesk.com/globe_troting_macro_players.asp - |
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Replies:
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 30/Apr/2009 at 9:48pm
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Geometric looks like a niche player and would probably be a beneficiary of infra/engg development in India.May be someone who has looked in depth can answer better. Also one of their customers chrysler seems to be in trouble.Dunno what will be the impact of that.Stock however was up abt 10% last trading session,up 90% from 52 week low. |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 30/Apr/2009 at 10:47pm
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why did RJ didn't add any new major position in his portfolio.................i am wondering.............did he not find any good script...........or the big man busy shorting and minting money.
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Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 30/Apr/2009 at 10:57pm
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I see a clear trend in this holding.. he used to be bullish on domestic consumption but not quite so now..he seems to be going for high knowledge driven companies with capability to innovate and succeed.. even on that parameter geometric is not doing well but due to external environment..may be he is trying to average ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: shadows
Date Posted: 01/May/2009 at 2:38pm
thnaks basant ji.,for update. RJ is interested in viceroy hotels., iam interested in country club. |
Posted By: mahesh004
Date Posted: 01/May/2009 at 11:47pm
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Agro tech foods is turning corners...This stock will give good solid return in next 3 years. RJ now holds around 8%.
Autoline is tomorrow's Titan or Praj. This stock is very ignored but will surprise people.
Any take?
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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 01/May/2009 at 11:50pm
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can u share u r views on autoline?
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Posted By: mahesh004
Date Posted: 01/May/2009 at 10:25am
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Trades at 70 crores MCap for 300 crores revenues.
Have acquired companies in tool room, engineering and artwork parts of sheet metal life cycle to become 'art to part' company. This can change fortunes of company overnight. They can now serve customer with an idea in mind to producing componenet for it.
They are sole vendors for Ace trucks in India and have starting seeting orders from GM, VW etc.
This company has good management, huge opportunity, scalability.
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Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 02/May/2009 at 7:26pm
| The company's performance has been really bad of late.Last year EPS growth was nil and this year it looks like EPS is going to go down like crazy.Even their Return on Equity has been falling drastically.I hold this stock but performance in the last 2 years has been anythng but satisfactory.I am disappointed as of now.The auto ancillary story is anything but dead,what i am banking on is their auto design outsourcing business that they have entered with a no. of acquisitions.If that takes off,we're in for some improvement in their business. |
Posted By: mahesh004
Date Posted: 02/May/2009 at 1:49am
| as Buffett says dont look in the rear view mirror it is not more than a reference. auto sector is at its life time low. it is opportunity for every one for every one to grab it and am sure that it will be ignored by everyone other than few geniouses |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 06/May/2009 at 7:12pm
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6/5/2009 532475 APTECH RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA B 442000 113.34
why guruji bought this one now? |
Posted By: Bangabasi
Date Posted: 07/May/2009 at 9:01pm
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Can anyone tell me about RJ's purchase of Viceroy Hotels.
From what I know he purchased this somewhere in 2005 at a price upwards of Rs.60. The stock has lost value ever since and the company has gone nowhere. Can anyone shed some light on the idea behind the investment? |
Posted By: kailasp4u
Date Posted: 07/May/2009 at 9:03pm
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RJ holds more than 1% in GARWARE WALLROPES. Why it is not reflected here? ------------- knp |
Posted By: vishnu1975
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 4:26pm
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AUTOLINE MUST HAVE BEEN GREAT CO TO INVEST IN DURING BULL RUN WITH 400% EPS. BUT RECESSION SEEMS TO HAVE HIT THE COMPANY RIGHT FROM THE FIRST QTR OF FY 08-09, IF THE COMPANY IS GOOD, WE WILL SEE IT BOUNCE BACK, TILL THEN THERE ARE MANY MANY GREENER PASTURES AROUND. RJ'S PORTFOLIO NEED NOT BE FOLLOWED BLINDLY, WITH ALL DUE RESPECTS TO HIM. OF COURSE ONE CAN TRACK THE STOCK RATHER THAN PUTTING GOOD MONEY INTO IT. ------------- Vish_bone |
Posted By: vishnu1975
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 4:56pm
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as of july 2007, these are supposed to be RJ's unquoted investments. Not sure if it is true. This could aid decision making about sectors which RJ feels bullish about, or felt so in 2007. Innovassynth Technologies (45% subsidiary of listed company - Futura Polyester) Tops Security
Klt Auto
A2z Enggineering Care hospitals Dharti dredging Manish Pharma, John Energy JBCN Mgmt Consulting Nandan Biomatrix Hungama Mobile Inventurus Leconcierge ------------- Vish_bone |
Posted By: pinki_kotak
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 6:38pm
| what about bil care .down from 1800 to 280.any update or view this quanter |
Posted By: j2eeprofessiona
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 7:19pm
| I know he is invested in John energy for sure, but its not listed yet. Furthermore, most of the companies you mentioned are not listed right? |
Posted By: Circuit
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 10:21pm
Are you sure it is Wall Ropes or is it Offshore ??
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Posted By: kailasp4u
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 10:30pm
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sorry, wrong info. ------------- knp |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 10:59pm
At the risk of substantially decreasing my "networth" here, I really must say that I don't understand the fascination in monitoring someone else's portfolio so thoroughly  ------------- |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 11:39pm
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Hitesh Sir,
Some ppl increase their networth watching someone's portfolio who is legend in the making  ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: vishnu1975
Date Posted: 08/May/2009 at 11:50am
Yes, these are unquoted, viz unlisted. ------------- Vish_bone |
Posted By: valuepicks
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 1:53pm
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Hi,
It is always fascinating to read how world's biggest investors made money - including Warren Buffet and RJ.
Coming to RJ, there are references to when he started and what he picked. I read that he started in 1985 with INR 5000 with initial picks being Tata Tea and Sesa Goa. More recently, he was known to have made a huge money from BEML, BEL, SCI, which he picked in 2000.
It was also recorded that he started investing when the Sensex was at about 150. Even at today's index at around 12K, it was 80 times growth. However, his portfolio grew to an unbelievable 5K crs!
If he has been known as an investor, who stay puts with a company for a very long time, how could returns be such phenomenal?! I would be interested to read further about his early career. How did he manage to generate a good corpus to enhance his portfolio? Did he trade during stock market busts? I mean, did he take short positions when we had stock market scams and benefit immensely?
Any reference to reading material would be appreciated.
|
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 2:03pm
| RJ shorts the market.........leverages big time..............don't know about my guru's history as much as i would like.............but he is trader cum investor............... |
Posted By: vishnu1975
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 2:07pm
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During the crash, there were rumours about his highly levereged margin positions being liquidated by some brokerage / institution to the tune of 1000's of crores. Dont know for sure. ------------- Vish_bone |
Posted By: j2eeprofessiona
Date Posted: 14/May/2009 at 8:57am
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yes without trading or shorting it would be almost impossible to make 5000 rs turn into 5k cr...in 23-23 yrs....coz if it was only investment then his investment had to multiply 100 times every 6 yrs to turn into 5k cr...(till 2008 jan)... by the way any ideas where we can find the list of ALL the companies listed both on NSE and BSE? |
Posted By: valuepicks
Date Posted: 15/May/2009 at 12:14pm
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So, trading, at least on Nifty index, seem to be important to make money in both the directions - up and down. May be that's also an inference when RJ says "trend is my friend" :-)
But how many will be lucky to get it right most of the time?!
j2eeprofessiona,
Check this link: http://www.bseindia.com/about/abindices/bse500.asp - http://www.bseindia.com/about/abindices/bse500.asp
You can download the Excel file here: http://www.bseindia.com/downloads/about/INDICES.zip - Click here for list of constituents . The Execel file also has constituent companies in other indices.
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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 15/May/2009 at 2:03pm
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he also shorts individual stocks...............
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Posted By: j2eeprofessiona
Date Posted: 15/May/2009 at 2:56pm
| I know this link but it does not give the list of ALL listed companies. I want the list of 'all' listed companies....any idea? |
Posted By: valuepicks
Date Posted: 15/May/2009 at 3:45pm
Interesting!
|
Posted By: vishnu1975
Date Posted: 15/May/2009 at 5:30pm
http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_markettoday.htm - http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_markettoday.htm
download Bhavcopy
similar arrangement in BSE also, u could look for that. ------------- Vish_bone |
Posted By: vishnu1975
Date Posted: 15/May/2009 at 5:30pm
http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_markettoday.htm - http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_markettoday.htm
download bhavcopy from here
similar in BSE too. ------------- Vish_bone |
Posted By: vishnu1975
Date Posted: 15/May/2009 at 5:47pm
|
http://www.bseindia.com/about/list_comp.asp - http://www.bseindia.com/about/list_comp.asp
------------- Vish_bone |
Posted By: samirarora
Date Posted: 15/May/2009 at 5:51pm
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Last time i checked , RJ had munjal showa (checked on munjal showa shareholding pattern list) but it seems he is out of munjal showa now, and i see emam private as a shareholder instead.
Anyone have any idea when this happened.
Best wishes,
samir. ------------- |
Posted By: j2eeprofessiona
Date Posted: 15/May/2009 at 7:28pm
Thanks. I really appreciate it. |
Posted By: sayru
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 12:06pm
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cnbc interview rj has said
According to Jhunjhunwala, the next http://connect.in.com/profile/Sunil_Mittal/390 - Sunil Mittal would emerge from organised retail. “The sector has got the biggest ability to grow. Today, 5-8% of retailing is organised.
Ramesh Damani: i think his choice would be pnataloons..though i have not asked him |
Posted By: vishnu1975
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 1:42pm
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No doubt its Pantaloon ------------- Vish_bone |
Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 20/May/2009 at 7:51pm
| If RJ is so bullish on Pantaloon, why did he sell his stake? |
Posted By: vishmitt
Date Posted: 21/May/2009 at 5:44pm
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Well, market cap can increase not only through share price appreciation, but also through new share issuance. In that case, shareholders dont gain much, except if the new shares are at high price. Like what happened in Reliance Power - Anil Ambani bought most shares at Rs. 10/- (average price of Rs. 15 or so) and issued the same shares to retail guys at Rs. 500 levels, thereby increasing book value to around Rs. 60 - 70 (quadrupling his net worth !), and with market price a multiple of that !!
It would be worthwhile to note that out of the billions of market cap, how much is share price appreciation, and how much new shares...
|
Posted By: subu76
Date Posted: 21/May/2009 at 6:43pm
Sale could have been as he needed funds for a better opportunity.
|
Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 21/May/2009 at 11:48pm
As of now we have not received any news about any significant investment made by RJ in this bear market.. The amount of sale he has made is a significant one.. |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 21/May/2009 at 11:55pm
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well don't know how much money gurujee made or lost shorting the market.
there are many ways to make money in the market .........long or short. |
Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 21/May/2009 at 11:59pm
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But it is really strange that he did not make any long term investment in the past months when everything was so cheap.. Either he has invested in too many companies with small amounts or we don't have the information about his significant investment. |
Posted By: NileshGambhava
Date Posted: 22/May/2009 at 5:14pm
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RJ’s most of investment turned to multi-bagger over a period of time. His success ratio is almost 80% which is amazing ratio in stock market. Indage Vinters, Rallis Should I invest 50% of my Cash into these 4 companies? ------------- :) |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/May/2009 at 8:56pm
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WHat if these four companies constitute the other 20% of his portfolio hits. ALways take your own decison in this market because unlike ideas conviction cannot be borrowed!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 23/May/2009 at 10:20am
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Rallis India looks good. CMP:650, FY09 EPS:54, ROE:25.51%, ROCE:33.88%, Dividend: Rs 16/share. Beneficiary of good monsoon and new government. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: mahesh004
Date Posted: 24/May/2009 at 12:48pm
| Also Autoline is good. very small MCap but very good management with conviction to grow. It corrected from 250 (Apr 08) to 50 (Oct 08) with no volumes. There has been continous insider trading and no promoter, PE player or slew Dalal street investors have sold their shares. In fact they have added. This company wants to do "arts to Part" meaning do artwork in the Italian firm they own, engineering in Pune and Detroit and manufacturing in India. They are supposed to get big orders...if the order size can easilty be above 200-300 crores. The stock will zoom. Since the company does art and design work they will get much better margins than a typical auto component manufacturer. The management said, last year, that they are aiming for 4000 crores by 2013. It looks achievable considering that US market is bottoming out. |
Posted By: vishnu1975
Date Posted: 29/May/2009 at 9:34pm
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there are many threads on this forum that talk abt that company, please refer those. ------------- Vish_bone |
Posted By: mahesh004
Date Posted: 29/May/2009 at 12:05pm
| Vishnu - well its RJ stock so i dont see why it cant be discussed here. |
Posted By: mivpl
Date Posted: 31/May/2009 at 2:58pm
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I am wondering.............did he not find any good script...........or the big man busy shorting and minting money. would probably be a beneficiary of infra/engg development in India.May be someone who has looked in depth can answer better.well but due to external environment..may be he is trying to average ------------- |
Posted By: vishnu1975
Date Posted: 31/May/2009 at 10:45am
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Its Scrip, not Script ------------- Vish_bone |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Jun/2009 at 1:20pm
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One is directed by Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and the other directed by Rakesh Roshan:) ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: vishnu1975
Date Posted: 01/Jun/2009 at 2:43pm
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Well said Basant dada ------------- Vish_bone |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2009 at 3:20pm
| According to ET's girly gossip section (Heard On The Street), RJ bought a big quantity of JP Associates last week and is now buying Ratnamani Metals & Tubes |
Posted By: dr.sandip
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2009 at 11:49pm
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Looks smartcat is keenly keeping a close eye on RJ's portfolio ... Sir, r u anyway a big follower or RJ's investment themes?? Regards Sandip ------------- Anything is possible because Everything is possible... |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 05/Jun/2009 at 12:04pm
Smartcat ji keeps a close & keen eye on many things including the blonde joke section. ------------- |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2009 at 5:26pm
himanshu j j: SIR CAN U EXPLAIN ME THE BUSINESS MODEL OF AUTOLINE IND AND WHAT MAKES U BULLISH ON THE CO? Ramesh Damani: a friend was bullish on it,.i have not researched the co Hmmm...............see RD says a friend was bullish on it. |
Posted By: karthiik
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2009 at 10:53pm
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hi mr.Basanth and all You are doing grat service to the investment fraternity. i love your post, now i am reading your investment strategy posts one by one this is my first post . i hope will participate more ------------- |
Posted By: pinki_kotak
Date Posted: 06/Jul/2009 at 4:36pm
| Bilcare Ltd has informed BSE that Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and Mr. Manish Gupta have resigned from the directorship of the Company, with effect from July 04, 2009 |
Posted By: pinki_kotak
Date Posted: 07/Jul/2009 at 10:12am
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Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 07/Jul/2009 at 10:22am
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Finally, the big bull has sold Indage! I have always wondered how he held on to it inspite of poor growth and high debt. I too made a loss on Indage when I sold it @ 90 five months back... ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 07/Jul/2009 at 10:24am
| I think the lesson here is what Basantji keeps reiterating.All of RJ's picks will not prove to be profitable or right.If you want to emulate him,emulate his complete listed portfolio. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 07/Jul/2009 at 10:52am
I don't know if you meant it that way, but nobody can emulate someone by merely copying the complete listed portfolio. Emulation has a higher meaning. ------------- |
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 07/Jul/2009 at 11:07am
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Trust me Hiteshji.there are enough number of people who just follow RJ blindly without really understanding the rationale/risks/convictions behind his investments. And no i didnt mean the "higher meaning". |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 07/Jul/2009 at 11:11am
Well said!  And there doesn't seem to be any effort to get out of this syndrome.------------- |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 08/Jul/2009 at 1:08pm
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One can't even have the exact replica of RJ's portfolio - because only stocks in which our man holds more than 1% are visible to the "naked eye". RJ could have 50% of his money in large caps - who knows. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 08/Jul/2009 at 1:13pm
------------- |
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 08/Jul/2009 at 1:24pm
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And there is the big problem of risk capacity.He's already quite rich but most of us cant stake our money on "sectors of the future/where there is lot of what RJ calls scalability" which may or may not materialize. When RJ started out he was a pure value player,but today he bets on IDEAS which CAN become big.If they dont its ok for him,he'll survive just fine but the small guy on the street who follows him blindly will lose his shirt. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 08/Jul/2009 at 1:33pm
One particular IDEA was being spread around quite actively recently  ------------- |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 09/Jul/2009 at 5:11pm
RJ has left Bilcare board and appointed some one as alternative on Viceroy hotels board...he seems to be short of time these..can somebody find out out what is he doing these days ..he also launched a new mutual fund along with a Japanese fund house..probably making another portfolio ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 09/Jul/2009 at 9:55pm
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New mutual fund? Can anyone give details about it? |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 10/Jul/2009 at 12:07pm
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Sinshei fund i think.. they have launched 2 debt funds last month..RJ holds 15% in this venture ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 18/Jul/2009 at 12:35pm
| RJ name isn't in pantaloon shareholding anymore. |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 18/Jul/2009 at 1:47pm
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But he still owns 1.64% stake in Pantaloon-DVR. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 18/Jul/2009 at 2:31pm
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Basantji.. Time for June Portfolio .. |
Posted By: viju
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 12:35pm
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Did Rakesh not mention that retail sector could produce the next "Bharti Airtel" like fortune? He seems to have sold out a very significant chunk in pantaloon.
His only bet in this space seems to be Provogue now. Lost his faith in Mr.Biyani? ------------- Risk is yours as always. |
Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 12:47pm
| Titan is his another big bet in retail. |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 12:51pm
|
Rakesh still has TITAN INDUSTRIES.............PLUS PANTALOON DVR............maybe he also doesn't like holding company structure.
all the smart mind moved out of it............Plus RD was saying that rakesh doesn't like autoline industry in one of his chat. In perfect 20/20 hindsight........the way pantaloon moved in 2005-2007...........it only moved upwards in late 2007.........so i guess that was the warning signs. Plus too much euphoria.........all this in perfect hindsight. I guess after studying the price movement of all the stock...........once the stock moves upward of 30 or 40 times........i guess it is better to look for some other scrips. See my gyan..... |
Posted By: somu0915
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 12:56pm
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I really think retail is here to stay.. May not be Pantaloon but this sector has huge potential.. |
Posted By: FutureBull
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 6:26pm
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my two cents on the sector.. it is gearing up for some very serious competition..Bharati-Walmart will be a potent competition..even Trent which has been conserving cash till now but would become aggressive..so road is bumpy from here on..low hanging fruits have been taken by Pantaloon already ------------- ‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’. |
Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 6:35pm
Isn't Bharti-Walmart supposed to be more of a wholesale type of store? And Trent, along with the Tatas, tends to have upper-class aspirations, so that leaves Pantaloon for the aam aadmi? ------------- |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 7:52am
|
I think before betting on the PRIL DVR one should check the value of that holding. Its really insignificant! Also it might not have been easy to sell the illiquid DVR. WHo knows?
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: j2eeprofessiona
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 9:19am
nops..actually he mentioned next sunil mittal would be from infrastructure space.... |
Posted By: rapidriser
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 11:29am
Is RJ surreptitiously following TED? I find it remarkable that he has moved out of this company so soon after BM did the same.
 |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 11:29am
Basantjee Maybe RJ is following Free Shares Concepts.............
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Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 11:50am
Maybe RJ is not so smart afterall.
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Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 19/Jul/2009 at 11:58am
| I think most of us have got RJs style of investing confused.he's a guy who looks for multibaggers.he's a guy who looks to allocate capital where there is maximum possibility of capital appreciation.now pantaloon cannot grow another 30 times from here.It might,but odds are against it.Business is reaching a level of maturity.So i guess its more of a capital allocation decision rather than any loss of faith in pantaloon. |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2009 at 12:20pm
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I dont think RJ sold Non-DVR shares bcoz his holding was just above 1% (1.02% to be precise) while the Total No of shares of Pantaloon has increased from 159,291,521 in March to 174,391,521 in June so due to equity dilution his holding has come down to less than 1% and hence not disclosed in the shareholding pattern. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 20/Jul/2009 at 4:19pm
| I had done an analysis of RJ's decisions by comparing his holding about a year back and current holdings to see how he decided to increase/decrease his stake in certain stocks. An interesting thing i found was that over all his decisions in the last 1 year were value desctructive because he got out of Bhushan Steel completely while it has rallied quite a bit since. So in fact his decisions were counter productive....but i think like he said, you might lose a few battles to win the war. Overall his successes overshadow his mistakes.. |
Posted By: shadows
Date Posted: 22/Jul/2009 at 4:54pm
| Basant ji when the June 2009 holdings are going to declare of RJ |
Posted By: neerajlulla
Date Posted: 22/Jul/2009 at 5:16pm
very soon ------------- buy and forget for long term |
Posted By: vijayM
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2009 at 2:43pm
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This is the latest portfolio available on net. I have tried to analyse its performance since april2008 and april2009 till today. I wish to say that the analysis is not perfect since some stocks have moved in and out during this period. i have assumed no change in portfolio.
------------- If a business does well, the stock eventually follows:Warren Buffett |
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Posted By: sunnydel4u
Date Posted: 26/Jul/2009 at 11:26pm
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basant ji we want your comment on this portfolio and please provide us with number of each shares owned of each company and any new company added by him.... ------------- rakesh jhujhunwala FAN |
Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 27/Jul/2009 at 1:52pm
| Rakesh mentioned about an article he wrote for the Economic Times about the secular bull run about to happen in Indian Equities in Jun 2002. Anybody have a link to that article? He is predicting the same going forward next year. So what do people think would be the next big drivers in the bull run? PSU/Real Estate/Infrastructure were the big players last time around!. |
Posted By: prabhakarkudva
Date Posted: 27/Jul/2009 at 2:06pm
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Source: DNA Money - 28th November, 2005
A paradigm shift has begun in the market, and it will continue over the coming years “Those
who forget history are condemned to repeat it,” said George Santayana.
History tells us that it is never different, there is no ‘New Deal’. Yet,
there have been paradigm shifts in different markets at different
points of time, like the decade-plus moves resulting in multifold rises
in the Nikkei and the Dow Jones indices. The
Indian equity markets have made unprecedented gains in the last
two-and-a-half years with the benchmark Sensex gaining more than 300%
in the period. The
breadth of the gains is further demonstrated by the out performance of
the broader indices — BSE -200, BSE-500 and the sectoral indices. The
experiences of Indian investors during the last two bull markets in
India during 1989-1993 and 1999-2001 have been transitory and bitter.
Reflecting them, most Indian investors are either not participating in
the current rise or are doing so with a great sense of insecurity. I
think they are influenced by their experiences of the previous bull
markets, forgetting the course markets have taken since time
immemorial. I,
for one, believe that there has been a paradigm shift in the economic
performance of this country and as a consequence, we are set for a
multi-decade structural and secular bull market in India. This
seismic shift reflects a structural change in fundamentals, which has
to be inevitably followed by an alteration in perception. The question
we seek to address is “Is it different this time in India?” and “Is it
sustainable?” For
the answer, we have to look at the reasons and the reasons behind the
reasons for the Change that is taking place.
We believe India, too, has begun its journey on such a paradigm shift
in its equity markets, which is a reflection of the structural changes
in India’s demographics, critical economic mass, policy frameworks, and
corporate competitiveness and governance. Would you have expected the
following for India? 1. Sustained 7%+ real GDP growth for more than four years
2. 40% rise in consumer credit and 56% growth in mortgages
3. Consumption boom across categories - mobiles, cars, 2-wheelers, watches, jewellery
5. Infrastructure spending at $20 billion
6. Rising employment, with wages rising even faster The
quality of corporate performance has undergone a sea-change. This is
more than adequately reflected in the DuPont analysis shown below for
India’s top 200 companies. There has been a sustained improvement in
the return on equity for the corporate sector, despite lower tariff
protection, lower inflation and deferred tax accounting. The
fixed-asset efficiency as well as the working capital efficiency has
improved. The revenue and profit per employee has improved
significantly. India Inc has among the highest return on equity in the
world. India
is in the midst of a consumption boom, and we believe that a capital
expenditure boom is around the corner.
Can you believe that until recently India was saving more than it was
investing? In spite of a superior incremental capital output ratio
compared with peer countries, India’s investment to GDP ratio is
significantly lower. The
thrust on infrastructure build-up over the last five years and
improving cash-flow profiles of India Inc combined with the reality of
higher utilisation and increased competitiveness mean a capital
expenditure cycle inevitable. If there is a confluence of capital
expenditure and consumption cycle in the coming decade, India’s
economic and corporate performance will surpass all expectations, and
we could see high double-digit GDP growth. The
institutional framework in India is now vastly superior to what it was
a decade ago, and is probably among the best in emerging markets. The
Indian banking system is much more evolved and robust compared with
other emerging markets. The Indian equity transaction framework
(including electronic trading systems and dematerialisation) have very
impressive trade densities, lower transaction and impact costs; and
robust, effective regulation. The
breadth of the sectors, business models and companies provide a very
wide choice for investors. IPO disclosures, listing obligations, and
quarterly results with segmental reporting make India an
investor-friendly market. All
these have been achieved under democratic conditions. Democracy is deep
rooted in India. This is reflected by the fact that although there is
no single party in power in the Parliament in the last 16 years, all
the necessary institutions of democracy such as the Supreme Court, the
defence forces and the Reserve Bank of India are all working perfectly
and all changes in the government have taken place in accordance with
law. Whatever
knowledge of history I have tells me that no society has achieved
economic growth and sustained it without a democratic framework and
what would growth mean without human right and freedom? Growth is surely slower but more deep-rooted and sustainable under democratic conditions. I
believe that all growth is an evolution and all success is chemistry. I
feel that India has had bottoms-up growth in a perfectly evolutionary
manner — growth has not been thrust down India’s throat. Although
there are always risk factors in any economic system I believe that
there could be intermittent periods where growth could slow down
because of various factors; but you can only slow and not reverse
India’s march to inevitably being one of the economic powers of the
world. A
very large part of the index gains are driven by the corporate earnings
growth, with valuation expansion hardly playing a role. This
is usually the case in the first phase of a structural move in equity
markets. The next phase would have to inevitably reflect improved
valuation in the composition of index gains. Such
valuation improvements will also be driven by a sustained increase in
equity exposure of domestic investors from the current minuscule levels. The
following chart shows the level of savings house hold savings in India.
These savings are projected to go up from $175 billion in the financial
year ended March 31, 2005, to $355 billion in the financial year ended
March 31, 2010. Household
exposure to equities in India as per the latest statistics is only 1.5%
compared with between 15-25% in most developed, and some emerging
market, economies. Even
if 15% of the fresh household savings is to flow to Indian equity
markets by 2010, you are talking about $50 billion of domestic money
entering into the local markets. You
can well imagine what this will do to the price-earning ratios of
Indian stocks. The increased penetration of insurance and the need to
develop a modernised pension system will further fuel the fire of
equities. As
one can observe, all of the above are factors that are unprecedented
for Indian equities.India is now on the radar of multinational
corporates as well as global investors. The addressable markets for
India Inc have expanded multifold.
The mindset, confidence and attitude of India Inc is superlatively
different from ever before. The
taxation environment for Indian equities is the most favourable that it
has ever been. Alternative investment opportunities offer poor returns. Indian pension and provident funds as well as the public sector banks have no significant exposure to equities. The
Indian mutual fund industry have come of age, and now has distribution
and management capabilities to cater to the needs of Indian investors
to enable them to put a greater component of their savings in equities. So, let me reiterate our hypothesis: 1.We
have seen rapid earnings growth over last three years, and we expect
about 20% average earnings growth over the next years decades. 2.The quality of earnings has improved dramatically, and the quality of earnings will sustain going forward. 3.There is endemic under-exposure to equities in the Indian savings basket, which we expect to correct over the coming decade. 4. The institutional framework to make this possible is now in place, and will continue to improve in the coming years. We
believe that the paradigm shift of Indian equities has begun, and will
continue over the coming years. The changes are structural and
unprecedented. The critical mass of change is upon us, and the pace of
change will accentuate. The markets will reflect the reality of this change sooner or later, but the perception of this change is gaining momentum. Investors
will be well advised to respect this structural change and not focus on
short-term factors. We truly believe “This time it’s different” and
time will judge our conviction, though it may test our patience.
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Posted By: Crimsonarcher
Date Posted: 27/Jul/2009 at 2:11pm
| Thanks Prabhakar for this one.. and i havent read this either... but i think that article was from 2002. This was written after the bull run began in 2005. |
Posted By: chimak10
Date Posted: 27/Jul/2009 at 2:19pm
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Q: Are you trading yourself with a bit more caution because you were saying you are also in two minds right now or are you trading the kind of volumes you were trading in the big momentum of 2007?
A: I don’t think I am trading the way II was in 2007. After all, I am a human too and I am also affected by what my thoughts are. However, I am far surer about the [country’s] longer-term growth prospects and the strength than most people. A: Instead of 4,000, I would say 3,800 or maybe even 3,600 — no level is sacrosanct — but I would say the level where this market made a gap, that should not be violated on the downside. If it breaks 4,650 decisively, that’s what my technical analyst tells me, that market will make or at least challenge the previous high of 6,100. Q: Do you think 6,100 is possible in 2009? A: Did you think 4,500 was possible? Q: I am asking you. A: Ok. What the technical analyst says — and I also think — if it breaks 4,650 decisively on a weekly basis and holds it for a week or two, then surely we can go to 5,800-5,900-6,000 levels. We could go there, then come back to 5,000-5,200 or maybe 4,800-4,500, make a range and consolidate for a year or so and then make a new high. Another scenario: we break 4,650, we are going to go to 5,850-5,900-6,000, come back to somewhere around 3,300-3,400 and maybe spend three-four years there. RJ in his interview on MC on july 27 |
Posted By: sunnydel4u
Date Posted: 27/Jul/2009 at 5:40pm
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deleted ------------- rakesh jhujhunwala FAN |
Posted By: SingleMalt
Date Posted: 30/Jul/2009 at 12:26pm
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He has doubled his Rallis holdings? Neat!
It is still just about 2% of his PF... So I wont get too carried away!  ------------- If only I knew then what I know now... |
Posted By: self research
Date Posted: 03/Aug/2009 at 12:40pm
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rakesh is on board of viceroy hotels but why share made low of 14 can u explain?
if he buy share at 110 how it is posible share made new low 14? ------------- - DONOT FOLLOW ANY BIG MAN THEY HAVE VERY LESS HEART.THEY R HEARTLESS MAN - |