Letter from a bruised bull to the"expert"analyst.
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Trading Psychology
Forum Discription: Discuss the psychological aspects of trading such as fear, greed and discipline. Why stocks are bought like perfumes and not groceries.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=213
Printed Date: 29/Apr/2024 at 4:54pm
Topic: Letter from a bruised bull to the"expert"analyst.
Posted By: basant
Subject: Letter from a bruised bull to the"expert"analyst.
Date Posted: 21/Aug/2006 at 4:38pm
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A letter from a bruised bull to the "expert" analyst. I have been a great follower of yours. Each day I used to rise with what you were speaking from During the current carnage when the index fell to 8800 one particular member from your community stormed the TV channels from Investors wishing to save themselves from the bloom gloom and doom were advised me to go on a long holiday. I could not go on that holiday since it would have cost money. Another member from your community asked me to keep 30% in cash, a few told me to wait for the US interest rate cues while the others were preparing for a US led global recession and urged gulliable investors like me to buy gold and silver. Theysaid that these would be the saviors. At an index level of 8800 the largest fund house from the land of the rising sun talked about an index level of 7000 above which they would not invest. Does any one know what they did after making that statement? When ever I asked you something you were uncomfortable in responding you called it momentum and I thought that these stocks were for the greedy. But after having suffered because of my shortcomings (in not being able to understand you correctly) I have a few questions: 1) Doctors, engineers, accountants do pass some examinations before being called experts. They undergo rigorous training and then only they are allowed to advise. DO you along with members of your community undergo the same test before advising millions of fools like me on TV. 2) Do you ever look back and see how many of your recommendations went right and how many went wrong. If so how so if not why not? 3) Do you ever feel guilty either morally or ethically when investors lose money on your recommendations. 4) You have a habit of using vague words like: n Buy on declines n Should give you 20% return. Whether the stock is at Rs 700 or Rs 850 you talk of the same 20% returns. n Cautious optimism. n Apply strict stop losses – Please name me one person who has made money by applying strict stop losses except the person who sells subscription for such advice. n Momentum investing – If buying on a break out and selling on stop losses is not momentum investing then what is? Yet you prefer to talk of stocks that you do not understand as momentum investing. 5) Most of the time your analysis is historic. You say this stock has made a 52 week high at so and so and then retraced itself to so and so and now is trading at so and so. You know the introduction that takes 70% of you analysis does not help me. I can see it in the pink papers and that costs Rs 2.00 only. 6) I am tired of hearing words like supports, resistances, 200 day moving averages, Fibonacci, retrenchments RSI’s etc 7) Each day you looked at the NASDAQ and the Nikkei and told us where we would go. Over the last 5 years the NASDAQ has gone no where but we have gone up by more then 4 times. Do you remember the critical days when you went wrong? 8) When stocks fell you blamed sentiment when they went up you said liquidity. Why can’t you tell us before hand as to what will happen? Otherwise there is no difference between you and me. Yours Truly “The small investor” A bruised battered and mauled Bull ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Replies:
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 21/Aug/2006 at 7:07pm
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Mr Basant,
I would agree with most of what u have written but as ED SEYKOTA says
“Markets are fundamentally volatile. No way around it. Your problem is not in the math. There is no math to get you out of having to experience uncertainty.” - Ed Seykota
I am a TA but not a day trader, i look for long term i even buy when other TA say sell, because i am looking at the big picture.. As Rakesh Jhun.. would say .. Be greedy.. but be a long term greedy NOT a short term greedy. For me SL is a must.. and i dont look at reasons.. i look at only prices.. and its the courage, research, conviction and the discipline which works for me and hence my quote about the pain of discipline
You are absolutely right in your analysis about a retail investor..
Great to exchange knowledge.. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 21/Aug/2006 at 7:39pm
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Basant Ji I want to further ask from the expert.. In the popular interaction between Analyst and the Retail on daily twice..
The Retail will ask about "Fundamentals" of a stock,
Analyst-- at what price did u buy
Retail at xxx
Analyst - (if the price is higher than CMP) congratulations.. u got in at a good price.. Now you can book half and reduce the cost of the remaining shares (Cut your profits) and put your SL at that price.
(if the price is lower) -- you seem to have got in at the higher (Myquestion-- what is high) end of the range.. Wait you should get your price back.
How does it matter as to at what price the retail has purchased .. They should answer that "is the Fundamentals supportive for the stock at CMP"..
Other TA says says "Structure is positive".. what is the time frame of the structure.. Tick chart or the monthly chart?
The need to be Right VS the need to make money ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Aug/2006 at 7:45pm
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Vikrant I agree that markets are volatile but the "experts" generally misguide you on TV. The advise is pretty much generalised. Now there are two types of people who come to markets1) Fundamental Investors and 2) Traders. Nothing wrong in each of them as long as you know your risks and also how much you could lose from each trade (bet).
100% of retail investors are fundamental investors and there are a very few number of traders in the market. That is because trading needs a) expertise b) guts c)the ability to take on huge risks because a trader would bet on more then he can put up (leverage position).
Now for a fundametal investor he has to buy LOW and sell HIGH. That is what the "expert" community prevents. Now if the index were to cross the previous high all analysts would jump in to give a buy call but at that point in time we will again become costly on PE basis.
In Fy 07 we should do an EPS of Rs 690 - 700 for the index and at 15 times we are at 10.500 and at 18 times we could be at 12,600 and at 13 times we could be at 9100. Now at 9100 it would be time to buy and 12,600 would be time to sell but that is never discussed.
When ever the markets fall I look at the index in terms of PE and not as 9000 or 8800 because when you oook at the index in terms of say 12 PE or 13 PE you know that you could be nearing a bottom.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Aug/2006 at 7:49pm
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Absolutely. The buy/sell price becomes irrelevant from the moment the trade has been executed. and about the book part profits part less said the better. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 21/Aug/2006 at 7:53pm
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I look at the chart of the prices as well as the chart of the PE. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 26/Aug/2006 at 3:07pm
Mr. basant, I agree cent per cent with you.I simply fail to understand if a company's price is a mere number or has it got any significance.I really fail to understand, why shall you not buy a stock when a company's price has declined sharply from your purchase price and when you have based your pick on fundamentals.If a stock had value at X, then it has to have more value at X-n where for both X and n are positive numbers with X>n. I fail to understand how can you so simply walk away with such trash advices.And Vikrant, I may be hurting you in the process, but I find technical analysts, a far more dangerous breed of advisors than the fundamental ones.I personally have a fancy for Amit dalal, Gul Tekchandani, an old gentleman which sports a french cut and wears specks, and our great Udayan Mukherjee... as a Standard Disclosure
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 26/Aug/2006 at 3:38pm
| 2.30 factor is what you mean? |
Posted By: reema
Date Posted: 26/Aug/2006 at 10:46pm
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Media people have to sell newsand they will create news out of information. Watch india TV once and you will know what news is. They flash breaking news even if a dog gets killed while crossing the road. To the analyst part all day long they are creating their brand so they can send their tips to subscribers at night! ------------- You should try to add wealth not multiply it |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 26/Aug/2006 at 9:26am
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Dont know Reema, but I beleive when you are dealing with people's wealth, one must be more responsible...I wonder, how can you create a brand name for yourself, if your recommendations go so horribly wrong? The analysts are for the most time so very much for aggressive companies, that they fail to understand the risk appetite for a person. I doubt whether you should be asking the time horizon for an investment... instead, you should be asking his risk profile and aim of investment.Most people club long term investors as passive and short term investors as aggressive.However, its not like a 100m race and a marathon..its about winning the race...People should exit whenever, they end up making sufficient gains for themselves....how does time matter?I bought Pidilite @565(10 Rs. paid up) as a long term buy...but in a span of 8 months it fetched me 100 p.c. profit...what shall i do? Now, if my target was to double money in 3 years,I would make an exit...
All in all, what i want to say is that they must not talk like god... when a target will be achieved is anybody's guess, they are not W.D.Gann!!!!
However, I must agree that I appreciate your views and am in consonance with the same.Do keep on posting articles....
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2006 at 12:22pm
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Vivek you might be correct about morality and ethics but the point is that all that is morally correct does not make business sense and vice versa[ITC and Mc dowell] after all those guys (the Tv channels) have to run.
Now without taking sides, there is one thing that these people can do that is take a much better talent on air. How long would you like to take a call on the market by looking at european and asian indices and by seeing whether the structure is positive. No, we do not need techno funda analysts either.
We need smart sensible people who have specialsied knwoledge and above all who can make a case for themselves.
Now if you have had your logic correct and there was an untoward incident that did not let you get through it it is fine but at least present us with sound and clear cut logic.
Most (not all) of the arguments on Tv are very very ordinary and i doubt if an investor will make money listening on those arguments.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2006 at 12:39pm
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I really dont understand, why do they make people call on them and ask questions? They can be better off discussing their own pickings like we over here on the forum and inviting people to comment on them.I recently attended a seminar where the topic of the seminar was how to pick up a stock by reading for just 3 minutes( the company's finacial result). I beleive, its a dangerous way of stock picking. Its a painstaking job and I dont think you can make it so capsular so as to become an analyst in 3 minutes time.You cannot do stock picking by looking at a clutter of financial results.Stock picking requires tremendous discipline and my observation is that it is innate, and cannot be mastered by becoming an academician in that.You can perfect your style, but style cannot be ingrained onto you.
All I intended to say, was that bring responsibilty into consultancy. The views should be unbiased and outrageously honest. I am in sync with Gul Tekchandani's quote which you listed on the forum.Someway down the line, I feel our forum style is far better than seeking consultancy from the so-called experts.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2006 at 12:46pm
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Please tell us more about the 3 minute capsule for picking companies and mind you it was 50% more inefficient then cooking maggie which happens in 2 minutes.On a serious nore what were they telling you to do EPS and PE or.... Now there is another issue to that if I tell you learn how to invest in stocks in 3 years most of my students will run away. In 3 years people want to multiply wealth and you would be telling them to learn Also learn is the incorrect word investing can only be understood never learnt. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2006 at 1:21pm
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It was not that bad a show. The presenter did present his case very beautifully. It was beyond EPS and PE, and did good bit of ratio analysis, which made it logical. It was very simple though, and was intended for non-analysts.
Coming to your point, I beleive this market is a best example where you need constant learning.Theories are made, theories get destroyed.... everything changes yet nothing change....majority lose, handful win....however, in a school you can tech them discipline, which i think is very important.But making a new kid on the block disciplines, is no mean task....
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Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2006 at 10:30am
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Vivek -- I have not read the discussion that You all had over the weekend. But i will post my views, after i read them.. However why did u go to such a seminar.. In which they taught you "to pick up a stock by reading for just 3 minutes".. and wasted your time.. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2006 at 11:03am
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Mr Basant,
Do you know, that US version of the Business TV, had credit Bob Preacher as "GURU OF THE DECADE", in 1989. But when in 1995, He turned a Bear, they himulated him and made fun of Him, By calling him on a show "Bull VS Bear", where the Whole of TV anchors, was a Bull and he alone was a bear and he was not allowed to present his case. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2006 at 11:13am
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The business channels have a vested interest in a bull market. When markets sink no one watches TV. Sure you can make money by becoming a bear also but the vrowd is generally a bull as being a bear makes the game very complex. If you get a chance read a book titled "The BULL" It is authored by Maggie Mahar and is very eloquently written. It is step by step analysis of the technology boom and the CRASH that happened in 2000.The book lists out instances when retirees having blown up all their savings in technology stocks ventured out to work again in 2001. It also has a blow by blow account of how the US CNBC analysts Mark Haynes and david Faber pressed questions that they thought would elicit only positive (bullish) replies from the company management.Since I invest in high PE stocks I like reading books that give you a sense of fear so that I do not get carried away. The first time I read Maggie Mahar I was prepared to sell my stocks the kind of fear the book tends to impart is very essential. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2006 at 11:20am
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If so, A very good read could be "SOLD SHORT".. i dont know the Authors name. But that is a very very good book.
A review of the book is at http://www.sharekhan.com/KnowledgeCentre/ChapterArticle.aspx?ArticleID=023455d5-6331-421f-9258-b1cd8bc60c25 - http://www.sharekhan.com/KnowledgeCentre/ChapterArticle.aspx?ArticleID=023455d5-6331-421f-9258-b1cd8bc60c25 ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Aug/2006 at 11:37am
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Brilliant peice. I love the idea of people betting with conviction.This 10 letter word is as essential as the other 10 letter word "valuations" and both have to move hand in hand. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Aug/2006 at 4:13pm
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Vikrant: Just heard the positively structured man saying
" It can bounce if it has to bounce"
Just heard the last part of the answer on one stock. Now is that what you call an expert?
Some body needs to tell him: that if it has to bounce it WILL bounce but I need you to tell me MR ANalyst whether it would or would not. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 28/Aug/2006 at 7:52pm
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I cant help but laugh on that man......Infact now i dont hear any one on TV.. I put on TV with a MUTE, while watching BubbleVision (as called in the US). ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 29/Aug/2006 at 7:23pm
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Vivek -- If You want to know more about the Base Metals and Copper "Bubble" you Can visit
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton082506.html - http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton082506.html
------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 03/Sep/2006 at 11:31pm
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If some one does an analysis as to how much these so called experts earn from "subscription revenues from clients" and how much by actually trading on their own calls I am sure that the ratio would be 150: -50. Now that sounds as confusing as their recommendations. The (-) sign is for their losses I think that they lose on theior trades and make up more then that from their recommendations. Segmental reporting if done would suggest that this loss making division should be CLOSED.
In the 1950's Samuelson the great AMerican Economist subscribed to a tip sheet that charged US $ 125 a year. he soon decided logically enough that if the tout service had really known he would have charged more then just US $ 125 or kept the tip to itself.
A cousin of mine whom I met recently subscribes to all the FREE trial offers that he gets in newspapers, magazines and journals. He was telling me with great pride and intellect about how he never pays any money for these services. I then asked him whether he really makes money on these trades and he replied No more or less it evens out but I am getting it for free.
This is a true incident that I have put up above and it shows how foolish we can become at times. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 04/Sep/2006 at 10:47pm
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I agree with you.People trade on smses?????and this breed gets wiped off on 17 may, 2004. They buy all stocks which go up because of operator and doesnt have legs otherwise....But then we need such people to redeem ourselves from our past sins!!!! You may accuse me of being selfish but we cannot have the markets without foolish people....how will we earn our bread?????
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Posted By: kiranphalak
Date Posted: 06/Sep/2006 at 1:59pm
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Dear Basantji,
I am a new entrant to your forum and quite impressed by the analysis nad your views on various topics.
I have been tracking some shares (Allahabad Bank, Essel Propack, IPCA Laboratories, Ashok Leyland ) for almost last 4-5 months. In last week of July 2006, just two days before the expiry of july futures, all these entities were very near to their 52 weeks low (Rs. 53, 63, 250, & 31 respectively).
I did not enter in that time as everybody was cautioning the restraint and forecasting further fall. Both print as well as visual media were harping upon further fall. A consewrvative broking house like HDFC Securities was predicting beginning of C-3 wave, sensex going down below previous low of 8799. But exactly reversed has happened. Sensex has gone from 9800 to 11900+ .
Is this level is sustainable? All the scrips that I have mentioned above have gone-up by ~ 40% ( Rs. 75, 85, 390 & 43 respectively). Is it advisable to enter in these scrips at present level?
Pl. analyse these scrips and give your views and guidance on the same.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 06/Sep/2006 at 2:24pm
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Hi kiran Ji,
Sorry to hear about that. I would avoid Allahabad Bank. The others like IPCA, Essel propak and Ashok Leyland are all good stocks to hold but whether you could get in at this level is highly debatable. I always prefer buying cheap and then see the stock go up before being temporarily down rather then the otherway round.
But Unfortunately I feel that we are at the higher end of the range and I have no indepth knowledge about these companies to suggest to you any meaningful action.
If you are a long term investor http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/default.asp?C=3 - why don't you look at companies that we have already discussed (a majority of them have run up)
I normally prefer investing in companies that years of growth charted along.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 08/Sep/2006 at 2:10pm
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But one point which scares me about Indian market that at times when people like Ramesh Dam., RJ, etc those who are big player in our market that when they take a view on market say for Ramesh who was bearish about market that they can influence the market in thier own interest and look no I am saying one can differ from this point, but no one say it also. Recent example is Titagarh Ind. it has no businees that it can move from 20 to 50 but some who bought it around 20`s would be selling now and will buyback when it will go back to 30`s, sure future looks good but I can give you so many companies who`s future is even better than Titagarh Inds. but its not moving. I my self bought godrej inds at Rs.22, BEL at Rs.70, Neyveli at 13, SCI at 26 long back and frankly speaking I didnt knew who is RJ, aur Mr. Damani and weather they were buy or not do your own work and buy when your convinced. I didnt buy Titagarh Inds. knowing that MR.Damani is buying well before he reveled it in chat, but I am not convinced about it, we should look at mukand for same business but no one is bothers about that comany. Anyways. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 08/Sep/2006 at 2:13pm
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The Market Demands Conviction.... It victimises the unconvinced -- Peter Lynch
Reetesh....
No one is the biggest player.. THE BIGGEST IS THE COLLECTIVE THINKING of the market at any given point of time.
EveryOne is the same infront of the markets.. Be it anyone and Anyone.
Anyone person cannot be the market as you are saying. It is impossiable to time the tops and Bottoms. correctly. They can only be done with hindsight.
Those stocks that you have mentioned were mispriced, therefore they gave a chance to make money.
And .. Beauty lies in the eye of the beholder. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 4:54pm
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i Dont know you guys know or not .. One TA from my and BasantJi's city ME... was banned by SEBI earlier in the year from comming on to the media as he had given wrong disclosure and had tried to spread false information through PYT. After his time for ban was over he has once again started to come indicating that he and the channel both are shameless. Aparantly, the same TA also has a "limited company" which is also listed on the BSE. BasantJi, .....Ambrish is also originally from our city, while darshan is the director of the company of the Ahamedabad based analyst who wears different hats on various days (f&o, TA, Funda), whom kulman had reffered to earlier. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 5:15pm
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BubbleVision,
You are bang on target for both ME as well as VS !
By the way, are you the one with MSTA? ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: monu_duggad
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 5:43pm
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Bubble , are yu talking about RKB from cal....who comes on a daily basis on cnbc....
Basantjee....are these guy required not to have any positions in market ? i mean people like baliga etc who come on tv...or for that matter...udayan from cnbc....even if they are required to refrain from investing/trading....how will anyone know if they are following the rule ?
only guy who seems to have som epersonal holdings is Sudarshan Sukhani..and quiet often he talks sense..one guy whom i like to hear apart from pn vijay to some extend and rajesh jain ------------- If you think you can,You Can |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 6:16pm
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Most of the things that Kulman has written on this thread is true, but apart from those so called "Mungerilal Analysts" who get money to make people pay, for thier mistakes. A lay man behaving like this I think is "Human Psychology" that even you would be doing it from time to time and I have done it and may be doing it from time to time, it is very nice to read all this and laugh at others but frankly it is not easy to implement. I am not sure how many would be your personal experience in that list that you have provided from time to time on this thread. I thought not to write anthing of this thread and just read peoples thought but I just could`nt resists myself.. I think it is all about "FEAR and GREED", those who can controll there emotions he or she can come over anything. Please dont take this post out of context and this is not intended to any individual. One more thing there are many people who trade and they are succesful (Bubblevision) and not talking about stocks in this forum is a personal choice but my suggestion is we all gonna implement these thought(s) on market and not in our social life.
Anyway nice thought..
Regards,
Reetesh. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 6:18pm
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Udayan once told me that he his wife his brother his brother-in-law are can all come under scrutiny for holding shares on his account. If he holds shares then his mind would be stuck on his shares and commentary would be affceted so he is permitted to hold stocks only in TV 18.
Others I am not aware but since I told you Ambarish Baliga holds MRO Tek I do not think there is any compulsions and there are some who make the disclosure twoi times just to make the public buy - ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 6:31pm
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Reetesh Jee
You are right, overcoming emotions of "fear & greed" is very very very tough. It all boils down to temperament. I have myself suffered due to these emotions, still trying to learn...
The experiences narrated athough written in jest, they are real life incidences and some of my friends/relatives have received such big irrepairable losses that I am unable to describe here. I am not against those Analysts who come on TV, it is there job, they get paid for it. I'm not calling them Mungerilals. It is the person who heeds their advice and acts in haste.... who suffers and he's Mungerilal. (NOBODY can predict the short-term movement/direction of the Markets...that's why it is said that A market analyst is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today!
See, nobody is perfect, we all need improvement. So, why not learn from other's mistake and avoid lemming like behaviour? About your last sentence (market v/s social life), I'm unable to understand what you wish to say, please clarify. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 6:42pm
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Reetesh -- i personally dont talk about stocks as i have little knowledge on them. I personally trade Nifty and the Indexex, for long term trading. If I am bullish on particular sector which is not in F&O, i buy the sector fund. I also dont track stocks regularly so i would be of little value if i give recomm on something on which i dont follow on. I dont have time to track many stocks. I track commodities and Currencies, on which i give my views as and when required.
I would partially agree with the critism of TA on the forum as i know the mistakes they make, as TA was originally developed by Charles Dow for looking at long term trends in the markets, but now the people are abusing it and using it using the TICK chart and the Minute charts.
I would partially disagree as to If a TA is giving a recomm for Intraday, then the people using his recomm should square off their position Intraday and not take their position home. However if the position is in profit they book out, and if it is in Loss then they Hold, which is the mistake of the Day Trader and NOT THE ANALYST. You have rightly called it "Human Phychology". As you have rightly said those who can controll there emotions he or she can come over anything. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 6:52pm
|
I am not lemming, I thing you should not thing that eveyone would agree with you in what ever you are saying thats why I said earlier I did not want to say anything on this topic and I never said the story is fictitous anyways and it is not about Market Vs. Social life what I meant to say was what ever we are learning from this interaction on this wonderful website from each other will get implemented more on market then on our social life.. I think we should agree to dis-agree with each other that would help you in not using word like "LEMMING" and in summary my thinking is it is all very easy to say then to do.. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 6:56pm
|
Yes, BubbleVision, these analysts so easily, off-the-cuff call the markets bull/bear. And I have seen investors suffer because it plays with the "fear/greed" emotion factor.
My own uncle did not sell those momentum stocks (which he had bought for day-trading with leveraged money) after hearing one bearded analyst on TV that it is a "do-not-sell market" in May'06. Now, the fault lies with my Mungerilal Uncle. He has learnt after losing lacs of Rupees.
Reetesh jee, the whole discussion started with a defination that Mungerilal does not know "who is he?", one day he is day trader, and the next day he keeps those losing bets as long term holding like RJ.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 6:59pm
|
I totally agree with you BubbleVision.. and I gave your name as example of successful traderer and there is nothing wrong trading but I also agree that this is not for everyone.
------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 7:05pm
|
Reetesh jee, the whole discussion started with a defination that Mungerilal does not know "who is he?", one day he is day trader, and the next day he keeps those losing bets as long term holding like RJ.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kulman Ji, this is what I am saying that this is human psychology and a LAY man does`nt understand all these things, in a billion plus population less than 10% of people invest and read about equities and from past experience they dont want to come back and hold on when market is in bearish phase. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: monu_duggad
Date Posted: 21/Sep/2006 at 12:40pm
|
Bearded analyst said the same words yesday at CNBC..."this is a do-not-sell market " ------------- If you think you can,You Can |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 11:44am
|
The Economic Times reported today " Mathew Easow - fined Rs 20 lacs for fraud on TV 18 website".
The paper reported that Mathew took trading positions in Kalpataru. CESC, Albert David etc- recommended them to client and then started selling them.
My question:
If SEBI is correct in its judgement, is Rs 20 lacs enough to repair the damage. The loss is financial and also of trust?
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 12:04pm
|
I also read it...I dont know why the paper reported it today, when the order against him was passed more than 6 months back.
I guess now CNBC TV-18 should be ashamed of itself and broadcast an apology, for the wrong quality of analyst which it has shown. E-matthew should be banned from the market altogether. He is an imposter. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 12:07pm
|
WHat a shame? The original order was sometime in January I think the fine part could have been decided recently. I AGREE. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 12:18pm
|
No amount of bad words from any dictionary can describe such an act on behalf of that analyst as well as the TV channel.
Such behaviour must have stronger penalties including imprisonment and lifetime ban.
I strongly feel and suspect that PYT platform is being grossly misused by even other Analysts. If one goes deep into it, some of TV18 employees might also be caught in this scam.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 12:23pm
|
completely agreed with you kulman ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 12:28pm
|
“When they’re talking, they’re lying, and when they’re quiet, they’re stealing” ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 12:32pm
|
I guess Mathew must have been really desperate darn to make such a fool out of people and himself! It is a SHAME REALLY! And if TV18 doesnt do anything about this and let's him stay on its channels, then it speaks TONS about where TV18 is headed and in the long-term, nature ALWAYS delivers justice. So TV18 should be really careful here and not underestimate the Indian public! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 6:13pm
|
SEBI's website shows that this order has been passed against M.E. way back on 19-Jan-2006.
http://web.sebi.gov.in/cmorder/order082006.html - For more details one may visit this link.... ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: prosperity
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 6:36pm
|
Does this negative news on TV18 means i'll be able to get a chance to buy TV18 at a cheaper rate tomorrow ?
Since tomorrow is also derivatives settlement day - i hope market corrects and hence TV18 ... i am waiting for it to correct to 575-580 levels so that i can enter at lower levels
------------- |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 7:00pm
| Actually, I dont think TV18's price will face much of a prob because of this although its a matter of integrity on the part of the channel. And the order is on the recoomendation of Mr. Easow on moneycontrol and not on CNBC. The problem is, we are still in the nascent stages of Integrity and Ethics management. Seriously, we dont have such rigid standards of disclosure as there are in countries which have reached the prime in the world of finance. Thats what we are lacking at this juncture, but I am happy to see our investigative agencies becoming efficient enough to discover such cases. And there is no point in casting any remark on Mr. Easow... SEBI has already done enough and I dont think he will ever be able to regain his image and the loss of face he has suffered is quite fine. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 7:22pm
|
Ya...Loss of image and loss of face...and profits on loads of money! most people would eagerly face any image or decency loss if they were given 10 crore rupees today cash(example)
Anyhow, I am sure Mathew jee must have given disclosures in his stocks so why all the fuss by SEBI. Morally he was damn wrong, legally dont think so!!!??
Did he say that he or his friends or family dont own the stocks? If he did that, then surely he is at fault! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 7:43pm
|
am sure Mathew jee must have given disclosures in his stocks
_________________________________________________________
Disclosure was for buying did not mean he would sell it the same day. Also we need to be cautious about people who are eager to give disclosures as soon as a stock is asked. Some other TA from Kol junps on a disclosure even while the conversation is not finished they want to over emphasize - I am buying what about you? This should not be done.YOu cannot recommend people to buy a stock at 9.55 and sell you holding on the same day.
ANd I do not believe that Rs 10 crore figure!!!
Power your trade I am not sure how many people would renew it. But froma few unfortunate ones who had subscribed told me that the recommendations were already up a few percentage points the moment they got the SMS.
Have you seen that Catch! Catch! catch! Bulls will lose their shirts and bears their pants.... TA who recommends stocks saying This had hit 20% and so on. The problem with those recom was they came to you aftre a stock was up 16% - 17%. ANother unfortunate investors who had subscribed to that service told me.
I would be happy to see how much of their clients came with repeat subscription renewals to these TA. I CAN BET IT IS LESS THEN 50%. Does not mean people are getting smarter they are just changie experts. The total number of people who trade on these news remain the same.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 7:54pm
| Saying immediately may be a good habit if they are saying so so that they need not recall back whether their holdings match with the stocks they discuss when subsequestly they are asked for it. But it does look weird. In this context, I mustalso tell you that companies which place a lot of advertisements on the business channel regarding their financial performance are to be beleived only after thorough enquiry. I burnt my fingers in Teledata... have seen people do so in companies like rathi udyaog. Somehow, I beleive performers dont need to show their achievements and they never do, in practice. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 8:12pm
|
Vivek jee
One of my friends had bought huge positions in Amar Remedies and Ambika Agarbattis after watching their advertisements on the business channels. Sad that he is cursing the channels now.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 8:23pm
|
Someway down the line, I always fear something when I listen to something good about a company and especially from the horse's mouth. I also beleive, the way our industrials announce plans and MOU getting signed but thereafter what happens is not known at all.. I attend many AGMs and try to find out the management's body talk and trust me, most of them fail to live up. More often than not, it is mindless expansion which destroys a company rather than anything else. Sometimes, the trap is too lucrative to not to fall into it.This time , you will see many companies getting into real estate development and the rest though future now, will be history soon.
Newspaper advertisements are equally dangerous. I rememeber a company by the name of IFSL Limited, which became very popular when it announced some plans of converting municipal waste into energy. and used to give big advertisements in newspapers.... and the stock is making new 52-week lows now.
|
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2006 at 12:42pm
|
Lots of those firangi expert analysts are currently in Mumbai for some investment conference. They are enjoying 5-star treatment & facilities, getting media coverage all at the cost of gullible "investors". Look at the way they are changing their previous opinions/forecasts easily! It is shameless.
New names for those large foreign investment bankers should be:
GOLDMAN SACHS = GOLDMAN SUCKS
MORGAN STANLEY = MORON STANLEY
LEHMAN BROTHERS = LEMMING BROTHERS
JP MORGAN CHASE = JERK POOP MONEY CHASING
MERYLL LYNCH = MERYLL LEECH
EPFR = ENDLESS PUKING FAALTU RESEARCH
CLSA = CLUELESS LITTER SYSTEMATICALLY ARRANGED
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: vivekkumar_in
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2006 at 3:20am
|
Analysis by US based so called high-funda foreign Investment brokers
like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Merryl Lynch etc.. are
none better than the ones you see taking about 5 Rs movement here and
there and hence advising rto go long or short or to sell & reenter
etc.. No one should forget, it is these same Brokers who aggressively pushed the American public to buy into anything that had a .com in it even some of them were advising companies that were in 4 digit PEs. Totally clueless of fundamentals .. merely running by momentum and at the end eat their own words by the end of IT bull run.. Nothing so great about these guys .. But for some of our Mungerilals.. such guys in neat Tux or Suits look like Demi - Warren Buffet to them...  ------------- Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies. P Lynch |
Posted By: manishdave
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2006 at 9:03am
|
Never invest in TV18 or any meida for honesty/dishonesty. Media companies are sin stocks like ITC/McDowell. Invest if you can see that they would be able to get more suckers for coming years. It is sad that some poor investors lost money due to Mathew. But those people would have lost money somewhere else otherwise due to their style of gambling.
Here I dont defend TV18 or Mathew. I strongly condemn both, but unfortunately that is how the world is.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2006 at 10:12am
|
Manish makes a great point. The renewal business that makes up for most of these Technical Analysts is less then 15%. Each year they get 85% new custonmers and only 15% agreee to renew. SO how do they run their offices then. I was told that Investor A moves from Analyst X to Analyst Y while Mr B moves from ANalyst Y to ANalyst X. The total amount of money that is to be lost remains the same. We can all blame the "expert" but the point is that a person who does not know what he is doing ought to lose what ever he has!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 03/Oct/2006 at 11:26am
|
Let us not blame the Brokerages only as they are doing a great job for their shareholders. Look at GS, If i am correct, the stock is now up 3 times in the last three years (manish correct me if i am wrong) and look at AMEX brokers and dealers index.. That has lead the rally since 2003 (again manish correct me if i am wrong).
If we blame only brokerages for the 2000 IT mania.. then we are refusing to take personal responsibility.
Fund Management is the worst job, as if FundManager refuses to buy a "overvalued" stock then he runs the risk of underperforming the market (and losing his job) and when the same "overvalued" stock falls, then he is accused of buying overvalued stuff...both ways they only lose, i guess that is the reason they are paid highly. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 12:24pm
|
Another hedge fund in trouble.
http://www.dealbreaker.com/2006/10/another_hedge_fund_in_trouble.php#more - http://www.dealbreaker.com/2006/10/another_hedge_fund_in_trouble.php#more
This is what over optimism tend to do to people, people are investing everything which come underneath core. But in my mind smart people will reliase that equity is best among all asset classes over a period of time. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 1:25pm
|
I dont know whether this is the right topic for my post, but just wanted to understand why Ambarish Baliga is conveying or trying to impose his views to the viewers that he is 50% cash and want to increase to 75% or there is a going to be huge correction as I got from his interview in Moneycontrol... ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 1:45pm
|
SOme how I have always found this business of timing the markets very naive. No one practically no one has been able to to do it consistently and coming to the http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=177&PN=6 - business of holding cash it makes littlke sense to do it each time the market moves by 15% - 20%.
Baliga has been advocating this since we were at 11,000 and I have always felt that if you are consistent you will sometimes be right! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 1:54pm
|
No no no sir, Bhag-lega was holding 70% cash when market was at 7000 and it went upto 12600 odd, his only call which was I don`t know how many bagger it was, was Praj Inds. He first reco. it when it was at only Rs.40 much before RJ that was his only call which he got it right that is why I say to people that when people take call only stocks they are 50% time right but when they give broad call on market his name suggest correctly Armb.. Bhag-lega. or rather lena chahiye usko. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 1:54pm
|
Hey we seem to have become the sabse tej in reporting the down fall of Hedge funds. Bubble Vision did it when Amarnath was out hit wicket and Reetesh this seems to be retired hurt right now.
While I could not find the link this caught my eye " a Hedge fund manager marrying his daughter"Remember http://www.theequitydesk.com/benjamin_graham.asp - Benjamin Graham who was supposed to have been dating his son's sweet heart. These guys see only numbers and nothing else.
http://www.dealbreaker.com/2006/09/hedge_fund_manager_reportedly.php - http://www.dealbreaker.com/2006/09/hedge_fund_manager_reportedly.php
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 2:08pm
|
But,Sir the problem is they are causing problems to all of us in because we are in same squad or team.
Very very interesting marriage, I missed it initally.
and here is the link once again:
http://www.dealbreaker.com/2006/10/another_hedge_fund_in_trouble.php#more - http://www.dealbreaker.com/2006/10/another_hedge_fund_in_trouble.php#more ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 8:08pm
|
But in my mind smart people will reliase that equity is best among all asset classes over a period of time.
--------------------
Reetesh -- This is not true...Ask Jim Rogers...There was a research done By Stanford Univ.. that showed that Commodities and NOT equities gave the best return since 1962.
Mind you -- this is when compared with US Stock Index S&P 500 (inflation adjusted)... The emerging Markets can give you better return, but you will also have to factor in the volatility of the EM's If that is done the Commodities have been the outperformers.... ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 8:21pm
|
To me not all commodities are classified as asset, anyways can you tell me how many Long-short or long only fund has gone bust in Equities with 30-35% correction and see whats happeing in commodity market, EM`s are not as volatile as commodity as an asset class, performance with from 1962 we need to look at base effect also, performance with sustenance is what matters and with consumption gold,oil few others will move. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 8:29pm
|
Hedge Funds going bust in Commodities has to do with Risk Management or the lack of Risk Management and Not the Asset classes....You need to look at the IT funds those were launched in 1999-2000 period and compare the returns and see that how many funds have wound up.... EM's are more volatile ...I guess you need to look over 30 year period to track volatility and not a 3 Month period.. And Even if you look at 3-Month then look at EM index and commodities Index (Including Softs) and you will see that has happened... ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 8:43pm
|
same funds are also operating as equity long-short or long only fund so I will not question there risk management not so long ago there was correction of same magnitude is stocks but there was no problem and I will again repeat that I am talking about all sector as asset class in equities not only tec. there has been several intances like this in commodities and like individual stocks there will be out performance in select commodities, like gold and oil and latter will sustain also but I have my doubts about others and we can include silver also. ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: reema
Date Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 8:59pm
|
This forum has a topic that http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=81 - equity performs best in long run. This study is for 200 years but from 1962 I do not know maybe Bubble Vision is right. The other problem we face in commodities is that we will have to speculate (futures) as we cannot store 100 barrels of oil in the back yard or take delivery of 20 tns of zinc but as small investor I can buy 25 ONGC and 100 HZL.
SO equity is for the general investor whereas commodity is a specialised play I presume.
------------- You should try to add wealth not multiply it |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 05/Oct/2006 at 1:29pm
|
Another One HF... Now from US and Euro Bonds...Name Vega Asset Mgmt
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/10/05/afx3068147.html - http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/10/05/afx3068147.html ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 05/Oct/2006 at 2:07pm
|
The literal meaning of the word "hedge" suggests that they should have minimised risks.Never knew that they could do this only when the market does not make violent moves (changes trends). ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 05/Oct/2006 at 10:42pm
|
Read this one on Hedge Funds.... Very very interesting & baffling!!! http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b9772B371-530D-4284-8453-157E80165238%7d&siteId=mktw - Ron Insana, a longtime CNBC veteran who has announced plans to leave the financial television network to start a hedge fund, will remain with the channel as a senior analyst, the network said on Tuesday. And here is a reaction to this news:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B9FFBD462%2D4744%2D486D%2DAAB8%2D38C307C6DCB4%7D&siteid= - When TV commentator Ron Insana starts getting into hedge fund management, it's probably time for everyone else to get out. ..
when people who make their living as TV pundits eschew their given profession in the hopes of corralling some easy hedge fund money, it's irrational exuberance time......
Whether or not you believe that, probably is a good indicator of your appetite for risk. Sure, hedge funds aren't going away. But some investors may decide to stay away. In turn, some managers may depart the industry. The easy money is getting harder to make.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 06/Oct/2006 at 7:57pm
|
Some local analysts deserve a special mention because they are experts on everything. They appear in triple roles (John, Jani, Janardan or Brahma-Vishnu-Mahesh) as fundamental analysts, F&O strategists and technical chartists......So, they have different views depending on the hat they are wearing and the program they are appearing in...
The top 3 slots in this category are occupied by a person each from Karvy, Sushil & Anagram.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 06/Oct/2006 at 8:04pm
|
Could you name the Karvy and the Sushil Guys as i know only Anagram one. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 06/Oct/2006 at 8:06pm
|
Harihar and Kashyap respectively ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 06/Oct/2006 at 8:20pm
|
Now that you mention it I see how these guys talk from dfifferent point of view.. We could have a cricket team of analysts (not stocks) and these could be allrounders - players who could bowl a bit , bat a bit and field a bit - but who could never make it to the team consistently - Parthiv Patel is one name that comes to mind. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2006 at 5:12pm
|
Most of us also look at both the charts and the fundas and then trade. However, we need to bracket ourselves in a league. I have found some people using charts wonderfully to make profits but them most of such people never ever look at the fundamentals. Which in my opinion is a good sign. I have seen many people making profits by merely looking at the fundamentals and never bothering about the technicals. Which also is a good sign. I have discovered the hybrid guys to be the ones who lose the most or put another way, make the least of gains. The hybrid giys simply cannot be disciplined because most of the times they are consoling themselves, that if the charts are giving them the signal that they have been wrong they will use their logic on fundamentals to stay invested and the other way out when they start losing technically. Of all the analyst that I have seen or come across, I have special regard for Gul tekchandani and Amit Dalal. They talk nothing but fundamentals. And in this context, I must also put 1 more observation... The technical guys, I have seen generally resort to fundametals more than the fundamental analysts resorting to technicals.Stock Investing is a risky but uncomplicated business and most of us lose only because we forget that its risky and remember that its very complicated. |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 08/Oct/2006 at 10:11am
|
Kulman - i have seen Kashyap analysing commodities as on "expert" also on CNBC... he is truly an Allrounder. ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: monu_duggad
Date Posted: 09/Oct/2006 at 12:54pm
|
I like...P.N.Vijay and gul for fundamentals...p n vijay is one guy who never looks perturbed by anything ------------- If you think you can,You Can |
Posted By: monu_duggad
Date Posted: 09/Oct/2006 at 12:59pm
|
Funniest creature in terms of analyst is anil singhvi...who appears exclusively on hindi version of ndtv at 8 30....he speaks so monotonously u start wondering whether he is trying to put u to sleep :-))...his views also are simple....if global markets r down...he will say down down down...if they rallied previous night...he will say...'bahot accha lag raha hain market..aaj sensex me badhat ani chahiye..." :-)) ------------- If you think you can,You Can |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 09/Oct/2006 at 5:31pm
|
BubbleVision
Such "all-rounders" deserve Nobel, even Bharat Ratna awards. Why? because these awards are given to extra-ordinary people who bring profound effect to lives of masses.
I saw some special F&O stategies being receommended by such guys: Buy 2 calls, Sell 1 Call, sell another call of so-so strike price and as a hedge short the future....!!!
If you calculate the brokerage charges for all these trades, I doubt whether it makes any sense at all. They are basically strategies to increase their broking business. Period.
I would recommend SEBI to change their disclosure clause:
"neither me nor my family members hold any positions, but my job compels me to recommend such things to enable my broker employer pay for my salary"
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 09/Oct/2006 at 5:37pm
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You are right Kulmanji all those sprads and straddle's should be indicated with net brokerage effects or else they are a strangle (mirage) really! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 09/Oct/2006 at 6:15pm
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Yes Kulman.. the Brok on options (unlike the world) are calculated in such a way that sometimes they are more than the premium.. what really needs to happen to increase the depth of the options market is to change the brok calculation to how the world calcutates, which the brokers would resist.
That Disclosure norm is a cracker...applicable to me also... ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 09/Oct/2006 at 11:39am
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Basant jee
You mentioned about Gaurika asking "kitna chini ugayenge?" to a farmer....
 Once I saw Mukherjee (the one on Chalti ka naam...) asking NTPC chief "Sir, so any new orders in the pipeline?" One could almost feel irritation in NTPC chief's voice...he however, replied politely that NTPC is is in utility business.
I understand that Investor Camp is coming back to your City of Joy! They should change the name of camp to: "Investors & Traders Camp", as afterall one will find lectures & their own promotion from Techies like Matthews, RK Bose et al......
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 10/Oct/2006 at 12:01pm
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Good he did not ask him about investory levels or WIP. WOuld have been real fun. Yes, I would be going to the camp not to hear them speak but to talk to some of the CNBC guys (if possible) I am more concerned about TV 18 then what these guys would preach me.
Last year Stocks Editor told me that awaaz will have a viewership of 3 times the English channel and the trend seems to indicate that. Let us see if I can get something new this time.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 10/Oct/2006 at 8:24am
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Basantjee
Keep us posted about CNBC's Investor Meet in Kolkata. It would be interesting to know what TV18 has to say (and also about what Mungerilals are upto these days!)
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: monu_duggad
Date Posted: 13/Oct/2006 at 7:05pm
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Basantjee
you will have to give us nice account of the meet...am sure lots of mungeribhai will come there...composition of panelists indicate to me as if its a Traders camp....sudarshan,r k bose...et al
btw...if u had observed the recent guests @ cnbc closely...mr bhag-lega has been absent for quiet a few days now....he predicted in september..sensex will fall to 10000 levels...in october too he was of the view ...."Mild correction...buy on dips....etc etc "....wud be nice to know his views now that sensex is at all time high levels.....he will now say.."Well,markets have surprised us....results have propelled this rally and catapulted the indices to next level..our view is of Cautious Optimism "..whatever that means ------------- If you think you can,You Can |
Posted By: monu_duggad
Date Posted: 13/Oct/2006 at 7:12pm
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If you want nice comedy ...then watch Zee "Commodities" business.....at night 11 30...program belongs to same genre as Taking Stocks of CNBC....quality of analysts who come on Zee leaves a lot to be desired...all these analysts belong to some never-heard brokerages.. Zee has got amazing focus on Commodities it seems.....whenever u surf zee business....all you get to hear is "Aaj guar gum ka bhaav chadha....Gehu utra...moong daal badhi....chana daal stagnant..."One more thing which irritates in Zee business is...."Zee business ..aapka faayda" they will tell u commonsensical things and then say..."zee..aapka fayda " ------------- If you think you can,You Can |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Oct/2006 at 7:44pm
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Ab Indian public ko atta, daal, chawal ka bhi bhaav pata chal jayega. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 16/Oct/2006 at 12:41pm
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I heard this very interesting conversation on one of the business channels. The stock under discussion was a new IPO listed only 2 days ago. Just note carefully who is talking what: Caller: Hello! First all, thank you for the great service your channel is doing to small investors like me. I am a regular viewer of your channel. My young daughter is also a great fan of yours & she wants to become like you! TV Anchor: (blushing) Thank you, please go ahead and ask your query, Sir.
Caller: Hello…hello… TV Anchor: Hello…go ahead Sir, we can hear you loud & clear…Please lower the volume of your TV Set.
Caller: Hello…I have shares of XYZ Company allotted during recent IPO. TV Anchor: Congratulations, you have made good amount of money. Are you a long term investor?
Caller: Yes, I normally keep the shares for 3 to 6 months. I'm in the market since March this year. TV Anchor: Let’s ask our experts….(turning to the fundamental analyst sitting beside her in the studio) XYZ is a good listing and he is getting good returns, what should he do, hold or sell?
Fundamental Analyst: Let me also congratulate the investor. XYZ is into infrastructure space and is a good play on India Story. I would advise him to partially book the profit and wait for further dips to buy. TV Anchor: Sir, let’s now get a technical view on this. (turning to the Technical Analyst)..XYZ got listed two days ago, what do the short term charts indicate?
Technical Analyst: Though the trading history is short, I would advise the caller to hold, there seems very strong support at *** levels. He can add to his position after breakout of ***** levels with high volumes…Fundamentally the stock is in good sector…As a disclosure I hold this stock in my portfolio. ................................................ Such TV shows would give The Great Indian Laughter Challenge & Comedy Shows a run for their money.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 16/Oct/2006 at 1:53pm
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Wow kulman....The fundamentallist looking to buy the Dips and the technician looking at Funda.....Book doing their opposite jobs. Additionally, Technician looking at 2 days (12 hours) chart tells you about his time frame. Who were these mungerilal analysts...Both . ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: reema
Date Posted: 21/Oct/2006 at 4:06pm
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Mr. Basant and Om Shiyvaya your posts of OCtober 1 in which you said that Ge Caps was being bought by some big broker seems true yesterday in the moneycontrol chat session this company was said as diwali tip and I am putting in what you all said that time. Is this co-incidental? Do you follow Ge Capital?
__________________________________________________________
"Now this is no rumour one media saavy Bombay based broker has been picking up GE caps from Rs 52 it has now doubled to around Rs 100 and after looking at the quarterly results he would recommend it to the general public.
Remember the name GE Caps because this recom could fly anytime and then as Reetesh says chorus singing could start."
The link to that page is here:
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=137&KW=transportation&PID=3943#3943 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=137&KW=transportation&PID=3943#3943
------------- You should try to add wealth not multiply it |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 21/Oct/2006 at 8:42pm
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Reema,
Yes this seems to be the stock. I had got a hunch last time itself when he came on chat and I asked him about "GE Caps". But I dont follow it and I am currently enjoying nucleus and am awaiting to see what VIP Inds. does. ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: reetesh
Date Posted: 21/Oct/2006 at 9:28pm
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Mr. Basant and Om Shiyvaya your posts of OCtober 1 in which you said that Ge Caps was being bought by some big broker seems true yesterday in the moneycontrol chat session this company was said as diwali tip and I am putting in what you all said that time. Is this co-incidental? Do you follow Ge Capital?
__________________________________________________________
"Now this is no rumour one media saavy Bombay based broker has been picking up GE caps from Rs 52 it has now doubled to around Rs 100 and after looking at the quarterly results he would recommend it to the general public.
Remember the name GE Caps because this recom could fly anytime and then as Reetesh says chorus singing could start."
The link to that page is here:
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=137&KW=transportation&PID=3943#3943 - http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=137&KW=transportation&PID=3943#3943
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So, the composition of song has started. Hehehehehe ------------- When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 27/Oct/2006 at 5:39pm
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We had covered http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=359&PN=5 - TAUs (Technical Analyst Uncles) breifly in Mungerilal section.
One TAU jee (Vivekjee sur-namesake) changes his opinion about Bull & Bear cycle almost every alternate day!
Monujee mentioned about the worst TAU voted in some orkut discussion forum: DM....he deserves that award....it is really shameless for him to appear on TV and call every little correction as a "bear market". He, unfortunately has both IIT & IIM qualifications! (Lagta hain copy kar ke pass hua hain!). He nowadays is too obsessed with predicting global markets when asked about Indian market!
I recall one incidence as told by a http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=359&PN=1 - Mungerilal:
This Mungerilal used to have fights with his 11 years old son about watching TV. Of course his son wanted to watch Cartoon Network & this guy as always....glued to CNBC.
One day his son remarked: "Papa...Papa...Ab bas bhi karo...aap bhi to Cartoon Network Business Channel dekhte ho din-raat....aur TV18 ka matlab it is only for Adults!!"
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 02/Nov/2006 at 7:03pm
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Like Bollywood, let's have IIFA Awards for http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=359&PN=5 - TAUs (Technical Analyst Uncles) . In our case IIFA shall mean Indian Idiotic Foolish Analysts.
And the Nominees are:
TAU in a comic role: Gab, Moh, V S, R B
TAU in versatile roles: Kash, Hhar, V S
TAU in a negative role: Mat
TAU in a leading role: ???
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: BubbleVision
Date Posted: 02/Nov/2006 at 7:24pm
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Surely RS.... wins it... Guess how many have heard him... he used to come earlier...and is a cheif market strategist of a big online brokerage. He is an Elliot wave theory follower...... ------------- You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 02/Nov/2006 at 7:41pm
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BubbleVision, do you mean http://www.indiacharts.com - RohSri?
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |