Learnings from previous bear markets!
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Fundamental
Forum Discription: Discuss the operations and finances of any of your companies.Make the other participants aware on the investment opportunities available in a stock on PE free cash flow etc
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1834
Printed Date: 27/Apr/2024 at 4:36am
Topic: Learnings from previous bear markets!
Posted By: basant
Subject: Learnings from previous bear markets!
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 11:36am
|
From my limited experience on bear markets I try to give examples from the 2008 situation as it appears to me: 1) Sectors which move the fastest and the fiercest in the bull markets lose the most in the ensuing bear market.real estate, Infra, Power, financial services (brokerages, NBFCs), Reliance stocks.
2) Companies that are leaders in a bull market do not see their prices come for years in the ensuing bear market. For example ACC and Tata Steel in 1992 took a decade to see their old prices. Other 2nd line darlings like Lloyd Steel, Kakatiya cement, Swaraj Mazda etc are nowhere to be seen. Unitech and DLF could esist but I would like to see companies like Parsvanath, Purvankara etc many of whom will be wiped out. In 2000 we had DSQ, HFCL, Silverline, Pentamedia etc
3) People look at how far it has fallen from and start averaging. Instead of this they should look at the valuations.
4) All companies with questionable accounting practices wash their dirty linen as markets fall. So companies growing at 100% CAGR could suddenly start growiing at 40% in a few quarters and then finally show degrowth.
5) Point (4) happens because it becomes too costly for the management to keep cooking books when prices are not responding to supposedly good fundamentals in the short run.
6) But the market cap of such stocks will evaporate long before the companies start showing bad results. It happened with Infy in 2000 as the company grew more then 100% for 4 quarters and the stock price lost 80% in about 18 months!
7) Bear markets do not distinguish between blue chip and penny stocks. M&M fell 83% in 2001 from Rs 25+ to Rs 28; Infy Wipro,Satyam can be called as part of tech meltdown but Tata Motorts fell from Rs 300 in 1999 to Rs 70 in 2001!
8) It pays to stick with quality companies/sector leaders in non cyclical industries.
9) All new bull markets have new leaders because at every price you will have new sellers in the old favourites stocks which people think that they should sell just because they are breaking even.Cement, Steel in 92, EOUs in 94 and tech in 2000 never had it so good for them again.
10) I have seen two bear markets one in 1992 and another in 2000 and the portfolio destruction is maximum. People who make money are the ones who a) Cut losses b) Stop averaging c) DO not look at how high the stock has fallen from d) Patiently invest in companies whose EPS is bound to grow.
P.S: People who buy during the market are the ones who make a killing in the next bull market but what we buy is more iomportant then at what price we buy?
 ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Replies:
Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 11:51am
|
but the sensex stocks has fallen more than 60% and they are not comparable to dsq, himachal etc.so eventually these businessess are not going to shut down. now what should we do when all sectors are down at the same time except pharma and fmcg.we have to pick among these sectors to sustain.if last leaders will not bounce back then u mean to make money thru virgin industries because u have said that what has happened in west will happen here. |
Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 27/Jun/2008 at 11:55am
|
if i dont touch or not in the ring of cylicals then i have no other options to move into nbfc=inflation will kill them.
fmcg=they dont perform or more or less for value investor.
pharma=one should have generic knowledge to invest.
|
Posted By: sun_raj
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 2:14pm
| basant sir,i enjoy u mails immensely.i will appreciate ur best picks now as mkt has fallen deeply where now all horses & donkeys are being treated alike.tks in adv. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 2:51pm
Actually FMCG and Pharma is not the best place to be in for the long term. Temporary movement of money can be done but then how would you know that the markets have bottomed out?
In this era of private equity I can't find any industry that wil be given away cheap by the promoters. The big money will be made in buying companies growing at 40% and available at a PE of 10 to 12 times current year!
We are already seeing the signs of NBFCs feeling the pinch (punch). Look at Indiainfoline, IndiaBulls, Rel cap etc etc.
Inflation will squeeze the customer and increase delinquecy also buying an NBFC at 5 times Price to book puts it under some stress!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: bassein
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 2:56pm
|
Basantji and Seniors: What is your opinion about investing in "dividend-yielding" stocks at this juncture? The magazine "Dalal Street" had a list of companies which have been paying dividend regularly for the last ten years. Would that help tide over the uncertainty of which stocks will partake in the new rally, however far away that is? |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 3:06pm
|
Let me share this experience with you:
In 2001 -03 I had set myself a target of having a portfolio dividend yield of 3%. Things were tough in those days and dividend did protect downside by acting as a floor.
In this connection I held on to Hinduja TMT and Trent which had an yield of 3% - 5%. I later discovered that these were the worst performers in my portfolio.
 Dividend yield protects the downside does not guarantee the upside and if you buy a second grade PSU Bank the downside protection isn't guaranteed also.
There are several companies that have moved from a yield of 3% to 6% and can ultimately go to 9%. That is the fear.
 Markets pay for sustainable growth and if dividend is the objective one should be in debt!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: bassein
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 3:41pm
|
Thank you Sir for your prompt reply. Meanwhile, I was reading your post on Indraprastha Gas. Thanks for that as well. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 4:20pm
Basant, this particular thread that you have started today - does it mean you think we are in a "proper" bear market with the index sliding down over a period of X years? We aren't going to see 30% growth companies trading at 30 P/E anytime soon?
Of all the stocks I own, I sometimes wonder if Indiabulls Financials will be a good example for the above statement in this bull run.
In some of the examples you have given from the previous bear markets, there were genuine problems with the companies. Eg:
Because Tata Motors closed FY01 with a net loss of Rs. 500 crores - it deserved to go down to 70 that time. Tata Indica single handedly pulled it out of the dumps later.
Now, coming back to 2008, are there any genuine problems with some of the stars of this bull market - the capital goods, real estate, power, NBFCs etc?
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 4:45pm
|
When the avrage stock has gone down 50% and the index has gone down 38% you cannot say that there is no bear around of course we can qualify that around by saying that it is a cyclical bear in a structural bull finally a bear is a bear.
To me a bear market is one when the companies that I own start reporting lower EPS growth but that is not how things work.
IBulls financials is just one example we will have several of these who would suddenly find that growth isn't so easy. That is why it is important to be with tested names who are in an industry that is growing so the breeze will push your car!
Tata Motors had that problem right, but the stock still fell down 80%; M&M fell 80%; markets knew that it was a one time loss but still the stocks did fall!
The reason for starting this thread is to share a thought that putting good money after bad in companies in a bid to lower acquisition cost can be dangerous.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: paragdesai
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 4:58pm
Basantji,
If I am not mistaken it was Mazda Industries and Leasing Ltd. which is very different from Swaraj Mazda Ltd.
|
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 5:07pm
|
Basant jee, so assuming that someone is in cash...how does he go about identifying the next bull run leaders. In your opinion, which sector would be the leaders in the next bull run? ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 5:08pm
|
In bear markets one must stay alert to whats happening in the
world to ride the next trend-emerging opportunities irrespective of the
fact that currently these stocks are or are not in your portfolio. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: shivkumar
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 5:10pm
Companies in my portfolio that fulfill this criteria are: Amararaja Batteries Kamat Hotels Hindustan Zinc Venus Remedies The companies that don't confirm to this criteria include: Voltas Punj Lloyd Blue Star Reliance Dish TV Axis Bank Yes Bank Cairn Suven Lifesciences I am exiting a few in the next rally to free some capital even though my holdings are minuscule: Tata Steel Infosys TCS ITC These are less volatile and have protected my capital, but I don't expect them to be great performers when the bulls return to play. |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 5:46pm
|
Markets teach new lessons to old investors & old lessons to newer ones. And it goes on & on. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 5:47pm
I could be wrong since I was in 1st year Bcom and about 19 years in age
My argument was not a water tight classification but more generalised in nature. After all a 14 PE stock growing at 40% with better management is better then a 10 PE Stock growing at 40% with average management.
I was just trying to suggest that solid growth at reasonable PEs make more sense. After all we cannot let PE beocme the only guiding force.
Early to say that but multibaggers originate from low PE companies growing at stupendous growth rates. New sectors just help us in finding that criteria so it isn't that a multibagger will arise out of gaming or insurance or theme parks only.
A few older ideas that have become cheap also qualify for that potential.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 6:31pm
|
basantji i can imagine now that few years from now ted will become very valuable property.
but this time we all hope here that every teddy should have multibagger and its your onus.
i dont agree and find no importance of your disclamiar.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 6:35pm
What does this mean? ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 6:44pm
|
means u cannot leave us alone.
at times we disturb u by call,e mail.
|
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 7:06pm
|
Hi Basantji, I agree with your learnings.
One safe haven to invest anytime in a bear market is Tata group of companies - we already have Titan and Voltas as favourites in our group which also satisfies the low PEG criteria. And i have observed that most of the Tata companies bounce back smartly and if picked in bear market, they have one of the highest certainity of to gibe handsome returns.
If we are really in a bear market akin to 1992 or 2000( although I don't think we are in really..at least in heart if not in mind), then we should understand one thing:
NO price of a stock(irrespective of 'current' fundamentals) is low enough that it cannot go low further. Its not surprising to see stocks getting reduced to around 10-20% of value to their peaks. Be prepared to see some companies getting reduced to sub-10 levels 'permanenetly', in case you are lucky that it doesn not close shop completely.
If we are really in a bear market, STOP Averaging.
Even if you have identified next multi bagger, invest in very very small amounts spread ove a preiod of next six months to one year atleast. And always wait for coming quarter results to enter any counter. Be prepared to see surprises even in best of best thought of companies.
Disclaimer - I am inveted in companies I talked about above.
Regards,
Vishal
|
Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 7:15pm
|
One safe haven to invest anytime in a bear market is Tata group of companies
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
basantji do u agree with this because we have very bad experience with noel tata and ratan tata is busy with nano and tatas are basically in cyclicals.for growth investor is it advisable to invest in tata group because i find no fire in their belly.
|
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 7:28pm
|
Hi Prashant, Investment philosphy will remain the same with the same set of 'Basantji-philosphy' filters beig applied always, if cyclicals are not considered good in bear market, then they should not be considered good in bull market also.
The point here is about finding finding highly certain companies which will show growth(atleast 25-30%) and which are least bound to show surprises in coming quarters(just because of bad management practices). In that sense I find Titan and Volts most promising among TED recommended companies.. Its not that they will not go down further - see that nobody knows, but good strategy may be to spread our new investments in these over next say 6 months to take advantage of lower prices we we do see. Remember, no-one can catch/predict the bottom when it will come and no-one will be able to tell when we will start moving up again...
Regards,
Vishal
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 7:41pm
Bad business, dubious promoter with fire in the belly does not make a good combination.. There was tremendous fire in the belly of the promoters of companies like DSQ, HFCL in which many investors burnt themselves. The risk of losing the shirt in a bid to find that elusive multibagger is very very high anyone who bought software (market leader) in 2000 knows this better.. What we buy i more important then at which price we buy. Some stocks are already down 70% The biggest threat is that investors who have bought at higher levels will average out and the ones who have bought at lower levels will wait to sell at a targetted exit price which will be higher then the rally, especially in stocks which are supposed to sink further Stocks, sectors and investors gets finished but markets stay for ever . ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 7:48pm
|
Bad business, dubious promoter with fire in the belly does not make a good combination.. There was tremendous fire in the belly of the promoters of companies like DSQ, HFCL in which many investors burnt themselves
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
i am very much confused.
then we have to pick the same businessess (old) but at good prices.but according to previous posts -----leaders of previous bull market will not perform.
confusing......confusing......
though its not my cup of tea.i will end now.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 8:32pm
|
The market is a great teacher it will remove all confusion for the believer and also the non-believer!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: SORUB
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 8:39pm
|
Investing in proven,stable & well managed companies pays(not talking about multi baggers) in bull/bear market.... ------------- K.I.S.S(keep it simple silly) is the most easy management formula i ever came across!!! but it is very hard to follow!!! |
Posted By: SORUB
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 8:46pm
|
people who invest in companies like hdfc family,crisil,some of the tata companies and companies like havells will have good money in the next 5 years...wat say basantji? ------------- K.I.S.S(keep it simple silly) is the most easy management formula i ever came across!!! but it is very hard to follow!!! |
Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 8:52pm
|
Thanks for write up sir.Your guidance is helping us a lot. You are the best teacher. Regarding valuation, do you think ted11 stocks are available at reasonable valuations i.e., growing at 40% and available at 12PE levels. Please keep giving us valuation perspective for ted 11 stocks. Ideally, i would want to invest most of money in them if available at these valuation. ------------- While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 9:34pm
Thanks we do keep talking of that on the respective threads but broadly all stocks do not confirm to that criteria but as I said valuations are not water tight and should be relaxed depending on management integrity, business potential etc.
Broadly yes. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: TCSer
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 12:05pm
|
10 RULES FOR BEAR MARKET
Holding your nerve in a bear market requires both sound knowledge and a cool head. If you can do so, you can both reduce losses and find profitable gems gathering dust. After all, it's worth remembering that that most revered of all investment prophets Warren Buffet eyes bear markets with a special gleam in his eye - for it's at such times that buying opportunities are available with handsome value in-built into their prices. Here are ten rules from a master trader to steer by in difficult times...
Flick the switch You'll never make rational investment decisions if you're mesmerised by the gyrating prices on your screen. Steel yourself not to look at prices, read market reports or talk to stockbrokers during trading hours. Markets are not going to turn for the better just because you will them to. And, as prices have fallen so far, it matters little if you miss the first inch of their eventual recovery. Pound the streets You don't just need a sense of perspective; you need the widest possible perspective. The best investment opportunities are those you discover by observation of the workings of the economy in the aftermath of the stock market collapse. If you can bear it, take the taxi driver litmus test. Read a good book History never repeats itself exactly, but you owe it to yourself to be acquainted with the bear markets of yesteryear. At least if history does then repeat itself you can't say that you weren't warned. I'd recommend J. K. Galbraith's The Great Crash, a brief but insightful analysis of 1929 and all that went before and after. Avoid collateral damage In 1987 the real economy emerged from the crash virtually unscathed. Next time around the world may not be so lucky. It will take time for share price damage to have its full effect elsewhere. Use this opportunity to pull out of that house move, sell your granny's Gauguin and ask your boss for an extended contract. Dust off the abacus Down and dirty financial analysis has increasingly gone out of vogue. As share prices fall, so value emerges. But you'll only spot it if you are looking for it. And this means poring over the numbers, not chasing dreams. You can afford to keep it simple. Thoroughness will pay greater dividends than sloppy sophistication. Beware false prophets Nobody knows where markets are going - not me, not you, not Abby Cohen at Goldman Sachs or the anonymous authors of Lex in the Financial Times. Your view has as much or as little validity as anyone else's. Keep this in mind and, when your analysis tells you it's time to buy, you'll find you have the requisite bravery. Don't shoot the analysts The backlash against investment bank analysts is in full swing. Don't be diverted by the spectacle, however enjoyable it might appear. Use the research available dispassionately. As in all human life, you'll find there's good and bad there. Just be sure, once you've digested, to formulate your own conclusions. Rebase to zero Ignore charts of historic share price performance. How a company was valued at its peak is no guide to its value today. Those shares that have fallen furthest may yet have furthest to fall. Start with a blank sheet of paper - no prejudices or preconceptions - and build an investment argument that reflects today's reality as you perceive it. Yield to temptation Equities are but one tidbit on the investment smorgasbord. One way of comparing them with other asset classes is through their dividend yield. Seek out shares whose yields are approaching those on government bonds. Although unfashionable, this could prove the way back into the market with the least risk. Just be sure those dividends can be met out of the companies' profits. Look for leverage Courage mon brave! When you decide the time has come to invest, be sure to do so with conviction. Use leverage to your advantage - be prepared to borrow; consider the use of derivative instruments. You could be a hero of the next bull market, if only in your granny's eyes. (Excerpt from http://www.visionbooksindia.com/details.asp?isbn=8170947103 - Trading Rules from the Masters: Money-Making Lessons from 50 of the World's Experts . This piece is by Edmond Warner, chief executive of Old Mutual Securities.) |
Posted By: kvinodhan
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 1:10am
|
Basantji... I agree during such times we should look at companies with good valuations...which are the sort of companies you think which will start doing well during the next bull run...most of the sectors have to look up ...Real Estate & NBFC's may take a big beating .....Don't you think retail spending for consumers will go down in bear market and the retail companies will start feeling the pinch....with elections to follow in due course do you think we are in for a downside for a long term........good valuation what yardstick one needs to start checking on.......please advise |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 1:40am
|
India isn't going to grow at less then 7% at the worst, finally the long term PE bottom is 11 times forward assumung that we account zero for subsidiaries the sensex has never pierced that valuation ever - kargil, 9/11 all kinds of adverse news flow has been handled at that PE.
We should do an Eps of Rs 1000 for fy09 and in 6 months we should be discounting the Fy10 Eps of Rs 1150. That should be a great bench,mark to think of the bottom also bottoms are price points that we reach for moment and there is no compulsion to trade at that price what investors should ask is where they would be one year hence from now and my argument is - higher. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: TCSer
Date Posted: 28/Jun/2008 at 2:42am
Yes that what I call a balanced realistic approach.Panic selling or buying is the biggest enemy of the investor.Controlling ones emotions of greed n fear are absolutely important for an investor but unfortunately one learns the same only the hard way.
|
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2008 at 1:16pm
|
Strangely, most of the content in the article "10 Rules for the Bear Market" would make sense even if we were in the bull market. All you need to do is replace "falling stock prices" to "rising stock prices". Whether its a bull market or a bear market, I guess the basic rules of the stock market don't change much.
Wah! Wah! |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2008 at 1:23pm
 ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2008 at 3:01pm
| I am seeing my fellow friends trying to devise another strategy for the coming period.......they are looking for stocks which will jump first when the markets rebound. I somehow think this is one of the most flawed reasons for buying stocks. We are into stocks to make money consistently rather than to make money first or second. Such investing style defeats the very purpose of long term investment. I somehow get a bit worried when people say ek baar DLF phir se 600 rupee hoga or ek baar JP phir se 250 marega. I believe investors shall avoid getting into traps like this and concentrate on core principles of financial rules for making sound investing decisions. |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 29/Jun/2008 at 9:09pm
|
This is indeed a difficult period we are going through and taking
decisions has become difficult.In any case ,patience and good stock
picking will be rewarded over a period.But pain for some stocks may
continue and contrarian buying opportunities will emerge for
those with cash.Where the prospects are not good (relative to price)and valuations are
rich it may be wise to exit.
------------- Ajith |
Posted By: satya
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 1:45pm
|
8) It pays to stick with quality companies/sector leaders in non cyclical industries.
Basant sir this is the biggest lesson i have learned from u.
i used to think that when u are talking abour sector leader means it should be a BLUE CHIP or a NIFTY or SENSEX STOCK
A 100 cr. or 1,00,000 lakh cr. market cap company both these companies can be sector leaders in their own fields.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 2:07pm
Thanks. We are all learning some very painful lessons.
 ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: valueman
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 3:50pm
|
This is the first time I am facing a bearish phase in stock market as I entered Stock Market for the first time in 2003 .Luckily this is the same period I have good liquidity position due to sale of some Real estate and maturity of bonds/FDs etc and the bumper sale that market is offering now for some of the stocks that I was keen to invest is something I never expected and I am happy with this fall as I am getting the stocks at very much cheaper rates than I originally expected .
------------- To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize ; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks . Benjamin Graham. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 3:59pm
Woudl request you to exerise extreme caution and diligence before investing such funds. Falling markets create a mirage for investors and the chances to get sucked into that is very very high.
Of course this is the best time to buy stocks - question is which stocks?
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: valueman
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 4:10pm
Basantji Thanks for ur inputs .I have been extremely careful with the funds that I have and in fact having a tough time convincing my mother about keeping the money in Savings Account for the past 6 months and right from 21,000 with every fall my mother asks me what more I want to fall and I tell her that unless and until the companies I intend to invest ( for the next 5 years ) are available at the right price I will not invest and also I invest in a step by step manner .So even now I am only 25% invested and stay 75% in cash and will be adopting a cautious step by step method . TED has been a very good learning phase for me and while 2003-2008 was my first phase of investing ( it was a safe and sensible phase for me ), I consider 2008-2013 as the next phase in my investing life and all investments that I make now are targeted for this 5 year period and I cant get a better discount than now ( with a possibility of 10-20% more discount in future as market worsens ) . I treat my investments as a KVP deposit . ------------- To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize ; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks . Benjamin Graham. |
Posted By: Bobby
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 6:00pm
|
Thanks Basantji for this thread.
I think the stocks which are over-owned will have resistance at different levels in case of upward rally,if any. We may see interest in travel & tourism,Logistics,Media,Metals,Oil & Gas,etc,. In addition, private banking stocks should outperform nifty/sensex once this bear market finds a bottom & inflation/interest scenario start coming down. Historically bear market is longer than bull market however this time around,I feel market will have a W shape recovery in an year time. |
Posted By: Bobby
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 6:06pm
|
U.S. stock index futures were pointing a lower opening Monday, leaving Wall Street's blue-chip index on track for what could be the biggest June decline in percentage terms since the Depression.
source : www.marketwatch.com |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 10:22pm
The operative words are overowed and under deliver!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Ajaya
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 7:16am
|
Between Pril and Titan , at this time which one you suggest to accumulate and Why? Titan @ 27 PE
Pril @45 PE
Thanks in advance
|
Posted By: Ajaya
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 10:12am
Basant jee and senior teddies please have ur say on this. Both PE mentioned above are trailing PE's.
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 10:27am
|
Both are in the TED XI so you could actually split your investment.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Ajaya
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 11:01am
Thanks for the reply Basant jee,I have actually pril(20%) as part of my portfolio.I don't have Titan in my portfolio.I have 10% cash So do you suggest Pril or Titan in this case.Thanks..
|
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 11:09am
|
Titan! But it comes with its own risks. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 30/Jun/2008 at 11:58am
|
"The investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdings is perversely transforming his basic advantage into a basic disadvantage."
- Ben Graham in the Intelligent Investor ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: vijayM
Date Posted: 01/Jul/2008 at 2:10pm
|
Basantji,
What is the minimum Sensex level for March09, Mar10 and Mar11 as per your theory of lowest forward PE of 11 for sensex in major crisis? Can I say the following:
Mar08 1000 X 11 = 11000
Mar09 1150 X 11 = 12650
Mar10 1325 X 11 = 14575
Mar11 1525 X 11 = 16775
regards
vijayM ------------- If a business does well, the stock eventually follows:Warren Buffett |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 01/Jul/2008 at 2:12pm
|
Get it 5% down at most for the earnings part. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 01/Jul/2008 at 2:17pm
I take one day off and so much of activity on TED!!  Very interesting points Basantji. I agree with the fact that some of the companies which get hammered will never see such levels again for many many years. So just because something has fallen say 70 or 80% does make it an automatic buy. This is my second bear market after 2000, and somehow the more it seems the same, the more it is different as well!  Last time i did not have this much of knowledge, so just clung on to my portfolio for the next few years, without selling out or buying more(averaging down). This time i have decided to sell and save whatever profits i could. Lets see how this works out. So far it has been an excellent decision.
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 01/Jul/2008 at 9:59am
BEAR MARKET IS GOOD FOR BULL MARKET & VICE VERSA. ------------- more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market. |
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 01/Jul/2008 at 11:58am
|
basantji, Sometime back we were discussing historic low P/E levels for Sensex, What are those levels and have we already breached that? ------------- Saab Moh Maya hai! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 02/Jul/2008 at 12:21pm
http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1837 - Sensex fundamentals. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 02/Jul/2008 at 9:55am
|
LEARNING FROM MARKET ACTION :
 Decide today that you will have no regrets.
And you'll Free up much time to actually get things done. Decide today that you'll have no complaints. And your Thoughts can be focused on creative, productive pursuits. Decide today that you'll carry no anger or resentment. And You'll bring out the best in those around you. Decide today to be accepting of whatever comes your way. And You'll discover much value that would otherwise be hidden. Decide today to be sincerely thankful for every moment. And You'll be delighted at how beautiful and filled with ------------- more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market. |
Posted By: experteye
Date Posted: 02/Jul/2008 at 10:26am
|
EVERY STREET PAVED WITH GOLD. IT IS WE TO STOOD BY IT & GO AHEAD.IT IS MY FIRM BELIEF. ------------- more risk,more profit but have a vision before taking risk,itis all about investment in equities market. |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2008 at 5:02pm
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/01/031401.asp - Surviving Bear Market - Investopedia article
|
Posted By: xbox
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2008 at 5:23pm
|
I wished several times that I get Yr 2003 once again till I changed my wish to see March 2008 again.
Bull theek se mila nahi, aur ab bear saath jhodta nahi.... ------------- Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle. |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2008 at 7:14pm
|
This too shall pass! Stay calm and let's have some real chilled beer. Yummy! ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2008 at 7:27pm
Yeah, Pappu pass ho jayega. On a side note, kuchh aise bhi Pappu hain: http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20080702/812/tnl-and-pappu-74-fails-once-again.html - |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2008 at 8:30pm
I guess this is what one of the prisoners said ina nAZI camp. DO not remember the full story.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2008 at 9:02pm
|
Ha Ha Ha! Nice one Basant jee. Well, glass empty or glass full...we all have bundles of stories to support each case dont we? ------------- The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it |
Posted By: catcall
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2008 at 10:13pm
|
Bear market wisdom from a "wise" old cat : http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=343&KW=bull&PID=16955#16955 - here and http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=343&KW=bull&PID=16955#16955 - here ------------- There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate-when he can't afford it and when he can-Happy investing! |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2008 at 10:24pm
|
In this market I am finding it difficult to post an opinion on a stock considering the uncertainty and variables.Probably the best time to buy is emerging as in but not as slowly as in the bear market of 1986-88 . ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: vijayM
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2008 at 11:02pm
|
Yesterday night on ndtvprofit, we had an interview of MD of HDFC Bank where he was mentioning the irrational behaviour of market now a days. He was confident of 8% GDP growth for India and 25% growth for HDFCBank. With this information we can project a 2 year target of 1850 for HDFC bank implying a great stock pick.
discl: I hold the stock bought at 1440.
vijayM ------------- If a business does well, the stock eventually follows:Warren Buffett |
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 03/Jul/2008 at 11:49pm
Posted By: kulman Date Posted: 05/Feb/2009 at 5:07pm
Posted By: kanagala Date Posted: 05/Feb/2009 at 11:28am
Posted By: basant Date Posted: 05/Feb/2009 at 11:40am
Posted By: kulman Date Posted: 06/Feb/2009 at 3:19pm
Posted By: basant Date Posted: 06/Feb/2009 at 4:14pm
Posted By: MissingLink Date Posted: 06/Feb/2009 at 8:38am
Posted By: somu0915 Date Posted: 07/Feb/2009 at 12:21pm
|
| Print Page | Close Window
|