Titan - A classic specialty retailing play
Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Investment Ideas - Creating winning portfolios!
Forum Name: Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
Forum Discription: These are companies operating in growing markets having have certain niches or specific attributes like new sector plays. These are emerging multibaggers with high risks and high rewards.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1688
Printed Date: 29/Apr/2024 at 6:58pm
Topic: Titan - A classic specialty retailing play
Posted By: basant
Subject: Titan - A classic specialty retailing play
Date Posted: 20/Mar/2008 at 11:52am
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Titan - A classic specialty retailing play! Titan (CMP Rs 920) is specialty retailing play operating in the luxury segment of the Indian Retail Market. The company has four business verticals but the major part of the company’s revenues consists of the fast growing (60 %+) jewellery market. Additionally the company is also into the retailing manufacture and of watches (growing at 20%+), has initiated forays in the eye care prescription segment and should ramp up its Precision engineering and International business.
The RoCE is expanding One of the best aspects of Titan is its ability to fund itself on its own capital. The company has diluted capital by only once (3%) over the past 5 years and has sustained its growth on its own funds. This makes it insulated to market vagaries for its growth. The RoCE for its watch and jewellery division indicated alongside explains this phenomenon very clearly.
Why such a high RoCE: Unlike common perception Titan is not a capex modeled company. The company appoints franchises who in effect run the stores and Titan merely lends its brand name. Therefore growth is not funded from the company’s Balance Sheet. Titan manages the inventory, designs and lends marketing support. The goods are sold through its franchises. The opening of news stores is done by existing franchises in respective cities and one franchise told me that demand for new store franchise is exceeding far then what the company wants to give. The Watch Division: Titan is the world’s 6th largest, integrated manufacturer and brand for watches with a 60%+ market share of the organized watch market. Every year Indians buy 40 million watches and the annual spend is close to Rs 2500 crores. 68% of the market segment is below the Rs 500 range and the company will immensely benefit with the change in income stream as people move from the lower segment to the upper ones. As consumers upgrade to the higher priced brand margins are only going to strengthen from here. Jewellery: a) Tanishq: The total jewellery market in Overall the jewellery market is based out of trust and as people become educated they would replace the old family jeweler with the Tata name. Rising incomes, changing lifestyles, increasing penetration of women at work will all drive jewellery sales. With a more then 40% market share in branded jewellery, the company has 101 stores in 70 towns – mostly in prime high street locations. Last year about 15 lac people shopped from Tanishq b) Gold Plus: The Eye Wear Business: In Fy 05 Titan forayed into the business of eye wear by marketing sunglasses under the “Fastrack” brand. This segment was targeted at the youth and later on the company expanded into the eye prescription business. As on December 07 there are 8 Titan Eye+ outlets and the company is planning to have more then 50 outlets by Fy09 This is a super high margin segment with marked up retail price equaling 4 times the landed cost of the eyewear. It is assumed that 30% of the population suffers from bad vision. Assuming an affordability number at 300 million the company assumes a market size of: 84mn users. Assuming a change in glass once every 3-4 years the total number of people in the addressable market is around 30 million units per annum. Putting an average cost of glasses at Rs 600 this comes out to a market size of Rs 1800 crores which is as big as the watch industry. The growth in the eye wear industry is likely to sustain at 15-20% per annum. Demand drivers for the eye wear vertical revolve around the same aspects of the Indian economy namely: Urbanization, literacy, Penetration of TV & computers, Poor eye health due to lifestyles/ improper diet, etc. The company says that overall mark ups of up to 300% exist between landed cost & retail price of the eye wear business! The company has no plans to manufacture the spectacles/lenses and that should help the company in maintaining its objective of increasing RoCE.
International Business: Titan is present in over 26 countries outside Precision Engineering Business: Titan is also engaged in the manufacture of precision engineering components. The opportunity of this segment is expected to be around Rs 135,000 crores and unlike plain vanilla BPO businesses this is assumed to be a high end job. The company’s customers in this segment include the likes of Schlumberger, Ford, Bosch, Tyco Electronics, Stanadyne, Tata Motors etc. Presently in the gestation stage the next 5 years could create a US $150 mn or Rs 600 crore business from this vertical Sales Mix: Presently the jewellery division makes up around 65% of the revenues whereas the other 35% is made up from the watch and the eye wear division. Since the jewellery division is growing at more then 60% its weightage would increase and therefore push the overall growth of the company a bit higher over the coming times. Eye wear and Precision engineering are still being ramped up and are therefore not contributing significantly to the topline. The eyewear business should significantly add to the bottomline over the next couple of years because of its super high margins.
Conclusion: Titan is a great bet on the Indian luxury retailing segment. It combines well with Buffett’s idea of buying Jewellery retailing companies. The top management is an IIT-IIM alumni and my experience with managements of that pedigree has been very satisfying. This is Bhaskar Bhatt’s long term vision for the company ”It is time that we make our brands Titan, Tanishq, Sonata, Fastrack and Titan Eye+ match world standards. So, in the next 10 years we plan to take the company from the best in The company is on an expansion spree and should aggressively increase the number of store count in Fy09. Increase in price of gold does not proportionately increase the margins because gold is a pass through and the company charges just for conversion cost. Hence higher gold prices would proportionately increase revenues but not the margins. I have an aggressive position in this company and would add at declines. P.S:Just received a emailed reply from Jim Rogers. He reckons that if history is any guide people will buy more of Gold as prices go up during times of uncertainity.
"Throughout history people have looked to precious metals and stones as ways to preserve wealth" he says. This time also it should not be too different.. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
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Replies:
Posted By: anandv
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 12:05pm
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Sir,
Thank you very much for this detailed post on Titan. It will help all TEDdies to look at new opportunities to invest. Could you also highliight probable Risk Factors to the Investments, so that we can look for those news items and be more agile this time.
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Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 12:09pm
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Good exhaustive analysis.
Incidentally, today Biz Std carries this article:
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 12:18pm
the main risk is the ones which Business STandard carried out today. people staggering jewellery purchases because of rising gold prices but that is for the discretionary part, daughters will still need to be married off and the incremental savings from changes in tax slabs growing middleclass etc should more then compensate this aspect.
Apart from that valuations have significantly corrected from the highs and should make up for whatever slowdown we see in gold sales.
Also Indians do not buy gold on weightage but in grams or tolas so people will still buy ornaments for Rs 100,000 just that the gold that they get would be lesser in volume terms.
In the long run these things should not matter! I think that rising gold prices could motivate people to buy more of Gold who had till now been thinking of Gold as a dead investment.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 12:30pm
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The main charm in Titan for the very long-term-despite current slowdown if any- is the Tata name which induces trust and so they can take market away from some of the smaller players who are worth hundreds of crores built all from gold business but whose quality and reliability are questionable. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 12:37pm
The gold ornaments for marriage are often bought from traditional family jeweller for many reasosn such as:
1. Wider variety of special ornaments like kangans, Baali, Mangalsutra
2. Known Seth ji since Dadi maa, nani maa days...huge emotional attachment.
3. Custom made designs in some cases.
However the Techies, working couples types prefer to shop at branded shops for other events such as Anniversaries, Birthdays, Valentine's Day etc...
My observation could be biased & cannot be generalised as it is based on few recent weddings in families of relatives & close friends.
Gold ETFs could be a major competitor for investment demand.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 12:41pm
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Watch Division Comments:
27% of Indians already owning watches doesn't exactly imply that it is an under-penetrated market. Remember that mobile penetration in India is around 14% and people are already talking about growth slowdown in the telecom market.
I've also noticed mobiles doubling up as watches. I expect the long-term growth of the watch division to be around 12 - 15% rather than 20%.
However, Titan is an innovative company - they seem to be keeping consumers interest in watches high by launching 'series' of watch themes like Aviator Series, Octane Series (for adventure sports enthusiasts), Heritage Collection (Indian monuments in background) etc.
Eye Wear Division Comments:
Isn't that a bit low? They've just started out - I expect growth in this segment to be in high 60s CAGR.
Titan Eye Wear is being positioned as a premium brand. After a visit to the store and making a purchase from the store for my friend, I'm guessing that the average spend per customer would be a minimum of Rs. 1,200 (frame + glasses).
General Comments:
Has any global company made lots of money selling watches? Timex, Citizen, all those Swiss companies - after all these years, are there any large companies?
Ditto with Eye Wear companies. I've only heard of Bausch & Lomb - and it is not listed. Essilor (France) is a $12 billion company - but they make and sell branded lenses like Crizal, Varilux etc.
What about Jewellery retailing companies? Any big names come to mind?
But yes, Titan is selling all three products + precision engineering products. So how big can Titan become by selling watches, jewellery, eye wear and other consumer products after XX number of years?
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 12:50pm
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Watches: Mobile is fully in the organized segment whereas with watches some part of the sales would move from organized into the organized segment so while the Industry growth would be low companies like Titan should grow at more then that.
Eyewear That Rs 600 was an industry wide market size computation. Titan's average ticket size should be at around what you mentioned Rs 1000- Rs 1500.
Jewellery: Even with the dadi and the nanis this division is growing at more tyen 60% CAGR for the last 4 -5 years. So Tanishq is growing inspite of that cultural block!I expect it to continue growing thatb way.Tiffany whose market cap is US$ 5bn is an example and mind you Indians consume more gold then their US counterparts!
Best part which no one has comemnted upon is company needs zero incremental equity funding. Look at the RoCE so its growth is ot market dependent.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: prashantmohta
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 12:50pm
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in US one company called taufni (spelling is incorrect) whose market cap is 24000 cr.whether ratan tata will be aggressive or not or it could go TRENT way. |
Posted By: luke123
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 12:53pm
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Basant ji, does price of gold affect their balance sheet?? I mean e.g gold falls from 13000 to say 8000. Do they hold too much inventory to take a forex like hit on Balance sheet or vice versa on the opposite side. I have been to the Titan Eye showroom in Koramangala. Pretty ordinary range. Foreign Branded stuff was good but too expensive for me to buy. Best part for me was their ROCE nos. Those are quite staggering. Thanks again for fantastic write up. Luke |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 1:15pm
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Gold is a pass through.But surely prices going up and down affect the value of invesntory. But surely they should be hedging their positions. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 1:16pm
You mean on Commodity exchanges?
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 1:29pm
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Rising gold prices will boost profits while falls should result in losses.This is based on analysis I have read earlier and seems reasonable. If gold prices fall,however,Titan will probably zoom. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 1:36pm
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No, I do not think this one is so much dependent on Gold! Otherwise it is a quasi Gold company. The earnings do not show that. Otherwise the company would have has an eratic earnings profile.
There would be appropriate mechanisms to control price risks. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 1:49pm
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Jewellers earn based on design/making charges on per gram basis which may not directly linked to prevailing gold prices.
So whatever growth Titan achieves would be by higher volumes.
------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 2:02pm
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I meant profits/losses on inventory held. A significant part of Titans valuation is due to bright prospects for its gold business which would be affected if income is on per gram basis as there will no doubt be some slowdown in short term as already gold imports are substantially down.There could also be an expectation of getting gold cheaper. Oil prices coming down and gold prices as well would be the best news for Titan. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 2:21pm
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That is for short term direction but over the next 3-5 years a considerable part of revenues would come from a) Income growth and b) movement from the unorganized to the organized segement.
Over the past few decades gold prices have significantly gone up and down but jewellery consumption on a broader scale hasn't been affected much!
Moreover it is estiumated that moire then 5 crore girls/women in the age group of 18-29 years are yet to tie the knot;Assuming that 80% of these girls tie the knot over the next 5 years and a per marriage consumption of 20 grams the total Gold demand works out to around 200 tonnes of Gold every year.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 2:28pm
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By the way like banks does TITAN also sell pure pure gold in small bars like 10gms, 20gms, etc ...... lots of bank make good sales of gold this way
------------- Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 2:50pm
Very detailed writeup on Titan. Thanks Basant. 
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 3:02pm
Yes, they do. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: rider.royal
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 3:34pm
Then its much better then jewellery sellig, right? As it invites cosumers/investors who are looking for profit due to increasing price of gold... |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 4:02pm
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as this post was being written gold prices have come off $1007 to 920 per troy ounce. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 4:28pm
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No doubt about it.Though ,of course the demand for gold is temporarily affected the medium to longterm is extremely bullish and Titan will rebound once uncertainty-which affects sentiments- goes away.
------------- Ajith |
Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 7:09pm
Business Standard
------------- Warm REgards Nitin Jagtap |
Posted By: valueman
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 7:28pm
Basantji There is no denying fact that consumption of Gold is going to increase in days to come but how much of it can Titan tap ? There are hundreds of small /medium / large sized jewellery shops in the Country and they have their regular loyal customers for years and how can Titan make inroads in this gold jewellery business .? ------------- To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize ; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks . Benjamin Graham. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 7:56pm
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The best place to look for this answer is at the sales of their jewellery division since 2001-02. As they say numbers do not lie. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: pramodjain
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 11:18pm
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Sir what is this precision Engineering Business : please explain
------------------------------------------------------------------
Precision Engineering Business: Titan is also engaged in the manufacture of precision engineering components. The opportunity of this segment is expected to be around Rs 135,000 crores and unlike plain vanilla BPO businesses this is assumed to be a high end job. The company’s customers in this segment include the likes of Schlumberger, Ford, Bosch, Tyco Electronics, Stanadyne, Tata Motors etc. Presently in the gestation stage the next 5 years could create a US $150 mn or Rs 600 crore business from this vertical ------------- "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful." |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 12:01pm
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Co. says these include equipments/indicators which are used in dashboard of cars etc.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 10:28am
Sir, What are the synergies between these business i.e., jewelery, watches, eye care and precision tools. Do they have some common processes or technology. Watches are sold in most of the retailers. I am not sure long term viability of dedicated stores for watches. ------------- While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 21/Mar/2008 at 11:41am
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Jewellery, eyewear and watches are part of the luxory consumer retailing theme. Precision engineering has synergies (probably) from the manufacturing side maybe from the watch division.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 22/Mar/2008 at 5:30pm
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titan is a proxy to increasing/decreasing income levels in indian upper class and middle class.i would also keep a close watch on how reliances nakshatra is expanding,and so also smaller things like gitanjali gems, damas,timex,.titan has first mover advantage.finally this segment depends puerly on the disposable incomes of young indians.if that falters titans revenue will falter and vice versa.fighting competition depends purely on mgmnt skills and so far it appears that bhasker bhat has done a satisfactory job. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/Mar/2008 at 7:27pm
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P.S:Just received a emailed reply from Jim Rogers. He reckons that if history is any guide people will buy more of Gold as prices go up during times of uncertainity.
"Throughout history people have looked to precious metals and stones as ways to preserve wealth" he says. This time also it should not be too different. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 22/Mar/2008 at 8:57pm
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my mom was very happy when i bought gold at 600 to700$ range ...but i think it will move sideways now any new high is really tough and dangerous too ....shot up quite a bit in no time |
Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 22/Mar/2008 at 11:10am
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Basantji,
A couple of questions:
a. If you were to select one out of PRIL and Titan at today's environment and valuations - which one would you select? I know you have both in portfolio. and both are available roughly around 25 times next year EPS.
b. If US dollar continues to weaken and gold keeps up its upward trend - it is bound to have some effect on sales of gold ornamanets compared to say a downward trend of gold prices( just on a relative basis), so in that scenario, which one is better placed - which is better placed - Titan or PRIL?
DISCLAIMER - I hold PRIL. Titan is currently in my wish-list of stocks which may be owned....
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/Mar/2008 at 11:23am
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Actually Titan is slightly lower in growth but since its RoCE is stupendously high it is not dependent on Mr. market for further capital raising so it would be good to own both. But between the two I would put PRIL on a higher weightage siinbce the market opportunitry is huge.
I had sent a querry to Jim Rogers on the sale of gold vis-a-vis the higher gold prices and this is what he said:
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: newbie_1
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2008 at 11:55pm
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Hi,
The following are my thoughts on Titan
In history price increases has always led to increased participation in markets, which is obviously investment demand. Jewelry demand is always there which is recurring and depends on affordability because shops cut margins both on purchase and selling jewelry. Gold is facing a decreasing supply (price increases are obviously because of this), refer the following World gold council supply demand statistics, so people will be worried to loose margins converting and re-converting jewelry.
http://www.gold.org/assets/file/value/stats/statistics/pdf/Supply_Demand.pdf - http://www.gold.org/assets/file/value/stats/statistics/pdf/Supply_Demand.pdf
There are a lot of people who are doing branding exercises for jewelry, then why only Tanishq.
When you have a mobile with time, why do you want to carry another redundant item, unless if one thinks it is fashionable to wear a watch.
Eye care businesss is mostly dependent on the doctor, every eye doctor has a shop in his own hospital, then why do you go to another shop and buy glasses. You mostly change your glasses only after you visit your doctor.
Regarding fashionable item actually there is no difference between the fasttrack goggles and the ones that are sold outside (believe me i know this field), what makes it sell is the brand recall, but it is a high flying fashion in this industry which changes almost everyday, so difficult to create a brand. Models come from all the countries (unorganised market - China, Korea) which look very very good than fasttrack, which makes buyers of fasttrack look dumb.
Regards,
Ranjit kumar
Disclosure: Happy to be proved wrong  ------------- |
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2008 at 12:31pm
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Who are the major competitors Titan be competing with in the different product segments it operates in ? foreign and local ?
------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. |
Posted By: kanagala
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2008 at 6:57am
Heard about competition from Reliance in Jewelery. Not sure about the format. ------------- While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior. |
Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2008 at 10:09am
Kanagala bhai,
If taken into account both the Ambani Brothers, then they offer competition to all. But I can say this much that in my city Titan is considered as an honest Gold seller. Every one believes that they sell as per declared purity. During festivals time there shops over here are full as compared to other big Gold jewellry seller.
Only when it comes to selling pure Gold only banks might offer real competition since the advantage is you can buy from cash in your account and then put it in same bank locker. So risk of carrying cash / gold in market is reduced.
------------- Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful |
Posted By: nitin_jagtap
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2008 at 10:17am
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Competition in gold organised retail would be from reliance jewels, labh jewels( retail arm of rajesh exports) and suashish and gitanjali also plan to do something significant in the area of single store gold/diamond retail formats. ------------- Warm REgards Nitin Jagtap |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 23/Mar/2008 at 10:54am
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I think he has repeated this many, many times. I remember reading the same thing in many of his interviews, its even there in his book. I think its probably one of his favourite quotes! 
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 12:10pm
I have been wearing glasses ever since I was born and I have never visited an eye doctor for new glasses.
However, if I ever have an eye problem, I would definitely drive down to visit our TED in-house opthamologist tigershark (who happens to be in Goa).
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 9:18am
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If you look at the company's business model it has a natural hedge. Everyday they are selling gold and the centralised billing system must be indicating the total gold sales which could in real time be bought back by the HO. So except for that steady inventory which we can think of as one time investment this company should not be affected by the movement in fluctuating gold prices - at least their results do not inidcate that.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 9:25am
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regarding eyecare i see a shift in the mindset of the indian, he will now go to the potician or optical shop for glasses and contact lenses instead of visiting an ophthalmologist for the same.the eye doctors role is becoming more of a doctor treating eye disease rather than prescibing spectacles.in the west this trend is prevalent.that does not mean that every single person who req glasses will rush to titan eyecare, local competition is tough and will be hard to crack. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 10:13am
In the eyewear business these guys have a 300% markup on the cost of the spects/lenses etc. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 10:24am
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What is the target marketshare expected ? ------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 10:39am
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It is mostly a shifting from the unorganized to the organized No idea on market shares. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 24/Mar/2008 at 11:00am
oh boy, with so much margin they should rope in few mega stars from movies & cricket and do adverts to further boost up sales .....
or they could provide specs / goggles free in most big banner movies and and display such posters as pos
------------- Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 2:12pm
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Internationally,Rayban's parent Luxotticca is the aggressive leader in eyecare retailing apart from its range of products.They have moved into China. Titan eyecare should do well in India again because of the Tata name. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 3:02pm
Not sure of that but eyewear could potentially contribute as much to bottomline as the watch division in about 2 years.The markup is just too big!!!
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 3:56pm
a frame plus regular glasses will be done for 300-400 bucks and would be pawned off to the gullible customer for1000-1200bucks. .i do not indulge in such practise as iam a eye doctor------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 4:03pm
 of course you don't. 
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Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 8:43pm
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Eyewear is very big business in the US too with fat margins. IF Titan becomes big player in eyewear its is a great business to be in. ------------- Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. |
Posted By: romanov
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 1:41am
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Basant Ji..nice to see TITAN is in the sticky part of the forum..
My arguments and I prefer business which are:
"Either Master of one or Jack of all"..
Though this dictum when applied to humans has changed to
"Master of One and Jack of all"
I have seen lot of Retail Jewellery stores out here in US...the present scenario shows me that once any of the group starts succeeding there will be far too many similar oulets,effectively nibbling the market share..additionaly along with TITAN-TANISHQ and GITANJLI-NAKSHATRA diamond-- they have to reinvent themselves..these stores can not succeed solely on Gold Play...
High end Customers --will aspire for more better Brands
Medium end Cutomer-- this is what the stores will cater to
Low end Customer--- Depends on the way Titan prices it's products..and I think it will be difficult to surpass the personal touch that a local jewellery owner commands.
Additionaly any Organised retail story can be a success only if it offers variety..when I go to a Titan shop and only see Titan watches what's the fun
 ...so if in PRIL(Central) there is a store of Titan and many others than it will be good for both,but in that case I would buy Shares of PRIL or TRENT?Thus mixing up three products in it's store will make it less of a Player.
However I think Gitanjli is much better positioned.In marriages I have seen a definite increased liking of Diamond...but funny thing with Diamond is without a Certificate it's just a peice of Glass..but nonetheless it's demand will go up.Both GILI and Tanishq offer 4C diamonds...but GILI is concentrating solely on Diamond which will make it far better strategic player.
Additionally when it comes to Spects..there is hardly any store ...those that are present do not have good opthalmologist except 'Bausch and Lomb"...and I agree 100% of the excellent Market Cap.
But if Titan mixes up all three,I won't be very comfortable first buying my Spects and than asking for Diamonds from the same store.
 Lastly all depends on the CEO's and Mangement ...Tata's make money but when it comes to new ventures they are bit Lazy...and I would love the mangement to be Hungry and ambitious(see Basantjee's other thread where he describes comparision of small business becoming big)
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Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 11:07am
Romanov,
bhai the spect stores, jewellry shops and watch stores are different shops ie tanisq the jeweller, fast track for optics, time stores for watch ...
is this correct na basantji
------------- Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 25/Mar/2008 at 11:20am
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The seperate models (inspite of the odds) become a 40 bagger in the last 5 years. One could have raised the same argument and missed this 40 bagger! The numbers of the company do not show any such problem.------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Mar/2008 at 4:01pm
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CLSA has brought out a report on Titan rating it as a buy. I saw the ticker at NDTV Profit. If anyone has that report please send it across. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: gopal
Date Posted: 26/Mar/2008 at 4:42pm
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source rediff money website one small querry what is meant by intermediate bottom in stock exchanhe as mentioned & highlighted below :--
10:52 AM - The market is in the process of setting an intermediate bottom, says Shane Oliver of AMP Capital Investments, on CNBC TV18. This intermediate rally could last for two months, he says. The market was oversold and undervalued after the recent fall but now valuations are looking attractive, he adds. The investor sentiment is very bearish and one can expect to see sectoral rotation, he says. ------------- Women are like the stock market Coz they're irrational n can bankrupt u if u're not careful |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 28/Mar/2008 at 12:21pm
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Basantji, as per your estimate where would be Price of Titan three years from today?? ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Mar/2008 at 12:39pm
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I could go wrong: The first digit in the price after three years could start with a "3"!!! ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 28/Mar/2008 at 2:20pm
People who can guess the other 3 digits will receive prizes - gift hampers from HomeShop18 !! 
------------- The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience. The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience! |
Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 28/Mar/2008 at 2:32pm
Sir jee....I presume currency considered is Indian Rupees only. ------------- Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 28/Mar/2008 at 8:47pm
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Thanks Basantji.
Under the present circumstances, you have gone for more safer and assured investment. ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: vijinat
Date Posted: 28/Mar/2008 at 10:52pm
Why only other three digits? Other four digits, no?
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Mar/2008 at 11:47pm
Actually the stock is aggressive whereas the busienss model is safer and steady. It trades at 25 times Fy09 and about 16 times Fy10 so it isn't that costly also even after the stupendous move of the past week. But as always there is no substitute to buying in panic.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 11/Apr/2008 at 10:09am
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RJ sold 70,000 shares between Jan-March'08. It should not matter bcoz he still holds over 8% of the company. ------------- "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 11/Apr/2008 at 10:14am
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Hmmm I was always wondering about the suppky that was feeding me. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: CHINKI
Date Posted: 14/Apr/2008 at 12:44pm
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Titan Industries eyes children's watches
CHENNAI: Following the success of its youth brand Fastrack, watch maker Titan Industries is mulling a re-entry into the children's segment. According to indications given to retailers, Titan will be soon coming out with a range of children's watches, a segment it exited couple of years ago. According to a salesperson in a city Titan showroom, Dash, made of plastics, had issues like fading colours and inability to withstand rough handling. In addition, the company seems to have felt Dash retailed in the price band of Rs.300 upwards did not fit well with other ranges that were priced higher. Good times continue to tick for the Titan Industries' watch division that crossed Rs.10 billion revenue in FY08. The division logged 29 percent growth while watch as a category grew only by 5 percent, Narayan added. In the 35 million units per annum Indian wristwatch market, the company has a brand for all other customer categories, except children. The company's high volume Sonata is retailed in the range of Rs.500-Rs.1,300, Titan (Rs.1,125-Rs.8,500), Fastrack (Rs.995-Rs.2,600), Raga (Rs.2,250-Rs.8,000), Nebula (Rs.18,000-Rs.95,000), Xylus (Rs.9,000-Rs.30,000), Hugo Boss (Rs.15,000-Rs.50,000) and Tommy Hilfiger (Rs.4,500-Rs.8,000). Sonata and Titan continued to be the largest brand in terms of volume and value respectively last year. The company sold four million Sonatas and three million Titan brand watches. In terms of growth, Fastrack grew by a whopping 50 percent last fiscal while the ladies watch range Raga Crystals too grew well last fiscal. Looking forward, the watch division's target was to grow by 30 percent. Brands like Sonata and Titan were expected to grow by 30 percent and Fastrack by 40 percent. The target is expected to be achieved by expanding the retail network by 67 showrooms to 300 and inducing people to go for impulse purchase of watches. Last year the company launched 17 collections including the Heritage range. Under its Raga and Fastrack brands, the company introduced three collections attracting the ladies and the youth segments. SOURCE: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News_By_Industry/Cons_Products/Fashion__CosmeticsJewellery/Titan_Industries_eyes_childrens_watches/articleshow/2948706.cms - ET ------------- TOUGH TIMES NEVER LAST, BUT TOUGH PEOPLE DO |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 14/Apr/2008 at 4:02pm
When this happens companies just strip off market share from other players.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 14/Apr/2008 at 4:40pm
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fy08 results on april 25 ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 4:49pm
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Titan Industries has announced its FY08 results. The company's FY08 consolidated net profit was up at Rs 147.5 crore from Rs 99.8 crore, YoY. Its consolidated net sales were up at Rs 3046.5 crore from Rs 2,136.8 crore, YoY. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 4:54pm
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these r again good solid results the pessimism that people may not touch gold at high prices appears to have been unfounded. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 5:10pm
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bhasker bhat----hopes to keep revenue growth at 35%+,will keep margins stable but will be challenging to maintain profit growth.www.indiaearnings.com i wonder why basant come on on this one whats your analysis. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 6:03pm
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If you heard the interview Bhaskar Bhatt stressed on focusing on RoCE! If he can maintain RoCE everything else will fall into place.It is mathematically impossible for growth to slow down without a corresponding blip in RoCE. Sometimes good managements just bring down expectations and that to me is OK as long as there is divorce between expectation and reality.
If I heard correctly they talked of a topline growth of 35%; I expect the EPS to grow aided by an operating margin expansion and breakeven of loss making divisions.
In Fy09 if Gold Plus and eye wear can contribute to profitability the situation could be interesting. I am waiting for the segmental results.
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 10:42pm
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The thing to look at , will be Titan's balance Sheet and especially cash flows. P/L is absolutely okay.
Somehow I always believe they have got to do something more to become a high recall brand. Also they have got to do something more trendy and more contemporary to attract the youngsters who are no longer interested in titan.
Jewellery segment can see a lot of competition.
One technical question, when we compute cash EPS, do we take into account working capital changes or do we simply add depreciation and other non-cash items of expenses to the PAT and divide the whole thing by the number of shares outstanding.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 10:53pm
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Working capital is a balance sheet item. Why should it come in cash eps? For your information dividend has gone up to Rs 8 per share from Rs 5. Check their PL statement and see the kind of operating leverage that can kick in! I leave that analysis to you. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 10:57pm
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For FY08, watch segment grew 17% YoY and the jewellery segment grew 57%.
Source: Equitymaster.com
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Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 11:01pm
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history has shown that whenever div goes up significantly it is generally a sign of mgmnt confidence in future growth.otherwise why give an increased payout if one is going to face headwinds? 55-60% increase in div is significant especially for a co in expansion mode. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 11:02pm
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I could not get Titan quarterly figures to see if there is any evidence of an impending slowdown. No matter what Titan is a good longterm buy. ------------- Ajith |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 11:08pm
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they did around 60 crs for the q4 in bottomline. they did 30 crs last time but that 30 was derived after providing for rs27 crs towrads contingency ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 11:10pm
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Okay Sir.
I looked at the P/L, but am more interested in liquidity position.
Dividend in absolute terms is nothing, it doesnt even fetch me a percent at the CMP of Titan. However, if you take so much money from shareholders by way of rights issue, and pay them 3 rupees more, its not a very big deal. Instead of paying prefernece dividend, you pay equity dividend. Let us see where does the actual total dividend payout( equity dividend+Preference dividend +DDT thereupon) stands at.
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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 11:12pm
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The reason why i asked the question about cash EPS wasat, I wanted to know whether the cash EPS actually is earned by the company. Ws trying to make the connect between free cash flow per share and CASH EPS reported by the company..... |
Posted By: jain208
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 11:15pm
Agreed, I have quite a few watches but none of them is Titan. Somehow, it doesn't attract me much. Maybe it has to do something more to change it's brand image. Abhishek. ------------- ======================================= The more it changes, the more it’s the same thing. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 11:20pm
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Titan has not done a rights issue in recent times. Analysing a balance sheet is not the way to go about with Titan. There are two kinds of companies one which has created history (Balance Sheet) and one which will create history. I like the latter ones and Titan fits into those scheme of things. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 11:24pm
| may be, lets see...... |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 11:26pm
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take it lightly Sir........no point in fighting over stocks.....Let everyone make money for until and unless that happens we will never be able to make great money in markets....
Congrats on getting a good call on titan....!!!!!
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Posted By: bharti
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 11:37pm
| geat results..no doubt about that.. one question - can we find how much of contribution to increased revenue/profit might have come from increase in gold prices YOY? that may not be sustainable going forward ig gold prices don't rise further. |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 11:40pm
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I was just explaining that you cannot analyse this company by balance sheet. It trades at a price to book of 12 times div yield of less then 1pc etc etc so that strategy will not work here. This is a case of trying to project whether the growth juggernut will continue or not. That is all that I wanted to suggest. Nothing else. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: India_Bull
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 12:53pm
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I just have few general comments on Titan. 1. Titan is not Tissot/Omega/Rolex 2.My parents, brothers and sisters and in laws and friends and relatives use Titan watch but I am seeing same watches since last 10-15 years and there is no possibilty for them to replace. 3.I feel Titan is at a matured stage now and would definately grow at some consistent rate, but unless it brings some revolutionary product and expand its market share , there wouldnt be any extraordinary value creation (People who have bought at 50-100 range e.g RJ have made lot of money , it has become a HDFC /HDFC Bank kind of a stock, I am looking for another Educomp !! P.S- I buy and sell Titan depending on the market conditions (It is one of Traders delight stock !!) ------------- India_Bull forever Bull ! www.kapilcomedynights.com |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 1:11am
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I am awful at trading but just check up the watch segment's revenue contribution to total sales. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Mr. V
Date Posted: 25/Apr/2008 at 1:28am
| Titan is not about watch or eye wear but about organized jewellery retail. |
Posted By: satsandh
Date Posted: 26/Apr/2008 at 4:58pm
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Titan is not a Tissot ... and they dont aim to be that at all. The watch brands you mentioned are Iconic brands which are status symbols, expensive and are targetted at the higher strata of society. Titan on the other hand is meant for all. They have watches to meet all sections of the watch buying public. That is the reason why they will continue to grow. With India having a high youth population and growing Titan already has a Target audience. My initial watch in the 80's was a Titan moonface, which I still continue to use, although sparingly. But I have gone further and purchased a Titan Edge about a few years back. Innovate or Perish should be the Titan mantra. They need to continue to bring out newer and unique models to make it attractive for existing users to add a new one to their collection. Also they need to keep a look out for Chinese watch manufacturers who are likely to enter India soon. |
Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 26/Apr/2008 at 8:00pm
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vivek sukhani the titan mgmnt has listened to you they have infact decided to tgt the youth of india with YUVA range of high fashion watches priced between 700-1000. hindubussinessline. ------------- understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 26/Apr/2008 at 9:46pm
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Actually titan goes down well with me as a watch manufacturer. Their watches last quite long, there seem to very little complains except for wearing out of leather strap belts or the rim of gold plated dials etc. However, when it comes to young people they dont want to remain struck. I have asked many a times this question to my younger cousins. some of them buy watches in kilos. It is this segment that is creating a vacuum. Titan is very hugely used in the complimentary and gifts market, there's no doubt for that.
gold retailing is one area where i dont do much of an active dip-stick style of study.
Its for this reason i will like to look at its balance sheet and cash flows.
As for my personal bias for or against Titan, my college friends can testify that I was at one point of time very agressive on titan. but at that time Titan was nearly 50-60 levels or perhaps even lesser. But times have changed, they really have.......Somehow, i am extremely uncomfortable with high P/E stocks, and I believe thats the primary issue which I have with titan.
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Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 26/Apr/2008 at 10:18pm
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On a lighter note having long lasting watches is bad because that is a resistance for people to come in with repeat orders. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 26/Apr/2008 at 10:44pm
| Exactly.......thats what i wanted to say. nowsays youngsters buy watches in kilos......no one wants to remain saddled with a watch which they cannot dispose off ....... |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 28/Apr/2008 at 11:23pm
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Titan has opened up two showrooms for World of Titan -watch div in karachi and lahore. The company aims to source some of their requirement from the Titan dubai center. Such geographical expansion might just keep the growth rates on the higher scale. Also they have the option of using these test case ventures to open up their jewellery and other outlets also. ------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |
Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 28/Apr/2008 at 11:45pm
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Titan -quality and sustainability of earnings is high .So its a good long term bet.
------------- Ajith |
Posted By: praveenmbd
Date Posted: 28/Apr/2008 at 11:12am
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http://www.indiaenews.com/business/20080428/114462.htm - Titan aims Rs.4.5 bn from eyewear venture in 5 years and 300 eyewear shorooms in 3 years |
Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 29/Apr/2008 at 4:03pm
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Did anyone notice Titan today at close. The spot cash was trading at 1340 and the 1 month futures was at a Rs 50 discount at Rs 1290. Doe anyone know what such a steep discount for the futures (negative cost of carry at 4%) indicate?
------------- 'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in |