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Buying stocks - Ramdeo Agarwal's style!

Printed From: The Equity Desk
Category: Market Strategies
Forum Name: Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
Forum Discription: DIscuss about the strategies followed by the great investors. Share an idea which would have impressed the masters. Try and bring their International experience into the Indian Markets.
URL: http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1451
Printed Date: 28/Mar/2024 at 7:18pm


Topic: Buying stocks - Ramdeo Agarwal's style!
Posted By: kulman
Subject: Buying stocks - Ramdeo Agarwal's style!
Date Posted: 12/Dec/2007 at 9:00am
Raamdeo Agrawal, Director & co-founder, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, in a free wheeling conversation... Excerpts of the conversation: 

A long time back, I realised that ‘margin of safety’ is the cornerstone of wealth creation. Steeper the margin of safety, faster, larger and more consistent will be the wealth creation. Margin of safety affects size and speed of wealth creation.

...my sense is that margin of safety emerges from your ability to forecast the company’s value five, seven, ten years into the future and compare it to what price you are paying today.

Margin of safety is not on the table. It’s in the mind. When looking at margin of safety you are not just looking at the book value; you are also visualising the future expected value. This is both an art and a science.

When you forecast a company’s value, you need to take into account the evolving business environment including monopolistic position, favourable regulatory environment, management’s ability to seize the opportunity and execute, etc.

For example, Bharti Airtel, which has created huge wealth for its investors, just a few years ago was making losses and was available at a price which was almost half of its issue price.

The very essence of a good business is a business with a sustained tailwind and an entry barrier. Both are essential as an entry barrier will keep competition away while the tailwind will make the business grow.

Firstly, any management should realise a business opportunity – the nature of business and size of the opportunity. If there is no business opportunity, there is no scope of wealth creation. An extremely good management without business opportunity can do nothing.

The dynamism of the management to exploit business opportunity is very important; like what Reliance is doing in E&P..


A favourable business environment in the hands of incompetent management leads to transient wealth creation. I call this the Barsati Mendak effect i.e. it’s only in the monsoons when even tadpoles make noise and are heard. 

Equities are an exponential asset class and one of the few avenues open to own a business. So we should control our greed and fear, buy for the long term and enjoy the process of wealth creation.
 
Entire interview http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Interview/Raamdeo_Agrawal_Director__co-founder_Motilal_Oswal_Financial_Services/articleshow/2618472.cms - here on ET
 
 
 
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards



Replies:
Posted By: johnnybravo
Date Posted: 12/Dec/2007 at 9:15am
Originally posted by kulman


A favourable business environment in the hands of incompetent management leads to transient wealth creation. I call this the Barsati Mendak effect i.e. it’s only in the monsoons when even tadpoles make noise and are heard. 



v good article 'bade bhaiyaa'....

yeh barsati mendak bhi shayad chaljayenga...paar yeh samjhna jaroori hai ki barsat chal rahi hai!!



Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 12/Dec/2007 at 9:59am
 This is one of the biggest source of pain. In good times people think even companies with bad management are great companies
 
Can we put these words in our study room or rather the dealing room.I am certain that at the end of this bull run we will have 5 SSis, 3 DSQs and 2 HFCL for every Infosys.
 
The very essence of a good business is a business with a sustained tailwind and an entry barrier
 
He has summed things up in just one senetence. He has far smarter then what he looks on TV.


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 1:01pm
Originally posted by tushar

yeh barsati mendak bhi shayad chaljayenga...paar yeh samjhna jaroori hai ki barsat chal rahi hai!!

 
Big%20smile Yeah, right!
 
Lafda yeh hota hain...ke http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=359 - Mungerilal ko yeh pata nahin chalta hain ke: chaddi geeli hone ka kaaran barsaat hain yaa 'kuchh aur'?
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: gcpradhan1
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 1:54pm

{The very essence of a good business is a business with a sustained tailwind and an entry barrier. Both are essential as an entry barrier will keep competition away while the tailwind will make the business grow. }

I completely agree with this defination while choosing an investment candidate. What are the possible sectors or businesses meeting this condition???
May be like:
- Oil, Petroleum & Power- Require big investment and the gestation period is longer and strict govt. regulations.
- Any defence product manufacturers ???
 
Others can also add !!
 
 

 


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Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years - Buffet


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 1:57pm
The emphasis should be on the word "sustained" with tailwind. How can we be sure whether energy prices would be up or down? Not sure if this theory could be applied to cyclicals because by the very nature of the definition cyclicals move in cycles hence an obstruction to the word "sustained".
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: investor
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 4:28pm
This was really good - He is one of the guys i've always found to be knowledgeable whenever he talks at the CNBC investor camps, and this interview gives us an insight into his line of thinking. There are so many
great virtues of investing distributed in his comments - need to really take that and try to practise.Clap


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The market is a place where people with money meet people with experience.
The people with experience get the money while people with money get experience!


Posted By: deveshkayal
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 5:38pm
He has summed things up in just one senetence. He has far smarter then what he looks on TV.
---------------------------------------------------------------
No wonder Motilal Oswal is known for its Research.
 
I have an "Wealth Creation" book by Motilal Oswal which is full of wisdom.


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"You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beat the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential"- Warren Buffett


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 5:50pm
Originally posted by deveshkayal

I have an "Wealth Creation" book by Motilal Oswal which is full of wisdom.
 
Yaar Devesh...kya kya nahin hain tumhare paas? Itna waqt kahan se milta hain padhne ke liye?
 
Anyway...keep up the good work.
 
 
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: Shankru
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 8:45pm
Basantji,
 
I am not clear about the meaning of the phrase 'Sustained Tailwind'. Can you please explain with an example?


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 9:15pm
Sustained means that the growth should keep on happening for a number of years and it should be an ongoing process rather then a one two year burst.


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 9:25pm
Ramdeo Agarwal,the master that he is at visualization has put it  verysimply . .
 But it is so difficult to maintain tailwind indefinitely,Hero Honda is one such company where even without too many players growth slackened suddenly.


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Ajith


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 9:36pm
But hero honda grew for over 10 long years which is no mean achievement.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 9:52pm
   Yes,Hero Honda grew fantastically, a several 100-bagger,I think.
   But few could have guessed that the growth will slow so much.
   My point is that similar downsides could be there in what looks sustainable right now.
 Is it conceivable that Reliance could slow down?(if it does what will happen to the Sensex?Refining too is cyclical or am I mistaken perhaps?(Reliance does have Buffet's moats and I may be stretching the point a bit too far)
 In that sense perhaps only Buffet understands the pure meaning of 'sustained' and only traded in China Petro.


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Ajith


Posted By: Mohan
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 2:44am
Originally posted by deveshkayal

I have an "Wealth Creation" book by Motilal Oswal which is full of wisdom.



DK,
Can you share about the wealth creation book ?
Is is available in any bookstore ?




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Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.


Posted By: gcpradhan1
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 7:15am
I found following article on Net by Ramdeo about Wealth Creators. This is an old article published sometime in 2006, so many of you might have already read it. Those who have not got the cahnce to read it, it is here for you........
 

Raamdeo Agrawal on companies that create wealth for shareholders.

 

Investing could become much easier if it were possible to identify companies that have the qualities of creating wealth for their shareholders. Over the past decade, we at Motilal Oswal Securities have come out with studies on India’s wealth-creating companies, and what makes them stand out. Let us take a closer look

 

 Need for a high ROE and ROCE

 

As investors, we have a tendency to lay excessive emphasis on earnings per share and the price-earnings multiple. But when you use ratios like return on capital employed (this is calculated as the percentage of profit before interest and tax divided by capital employed, which is total assets minus current liabilities) or return on equity, you can measure the productivity of capital. There are some businesses like textiles and paper, which struggle to generate ROCEs higher than 8 per cent. So if a company has a ROCE of 10 per cent and earns Rs 10 of EPS, then it will need an additional investment of Rs 100 in the business to generate an incremental Rs 10 of earnings. So, I as a shareholder will get higher dividends only if the business makes money. In many businesses, it will be difficult even to maintain the growth rate at GDP growth rate level, and such businesses are worthless to me. The risk-free return is 7.5-8 per cent, so I am better off putting my money in the banks. The best situation for wealth creation occurs when you identify a company which has a low ROCE, say about 10 per cent, which has the potential to improve its ROCE to 40 per cent. When that happens, the EPS grows substantially, and the P/E is re-rated, so the returns are huge. For example, IPCA Laboratories’ return on equity shot up from 19 per cent in 2003 to 34 per cent in 2004–the stock shot up by five times in two years. Similarly, Balkrishna Industries had a ROCE of 11 per cent in in 2002, which zoomed to 35 per cent in three years. The stock multiplied 20 times in this period. Mid-caps create more wealth. In every study over the past decade, we have found that among our wealth-creating companies with a market cap of less than Rs 250 crore as an aggregate have grown three times faster than companies with a market cap of over Rs 1000 crore over the next five years. Besides the fact that smaller companies grow faster than larger companies, there are also other reasons. When companies are small, the market has not recognised their rapid growth rates. Thus, it is possible to identify companies that are likely to grow at 50 per cent but are trading at a P/E of 5 times. Once the market discovers it, the growth rate would have tapered to 20 per cent, but it would be trading at a P/E of 20 times. Mid-caps offer you growth plus P/E re-rating. Yes, mid-caps are riskier than large-caps, but that is where your experience, research and knowledge will help. But the beauty is that even a small investor has serious wealth creation opportunities by finding stocks that go on to become multi-baggers. There is a Chinese saying that goes, “Big fish is not found in clear waters.” So, for a good catch of stocks, you have to go to the muddy waters of uncertainty.

 

Passion for leadership

 

Wealth creating companies have a passion for leadership in their respective businesses. Though this is not an easy parameter to measure, using market share is useful. Look at the example of Hero Honda, which was a marginal player about 15 years ago, but it came from behind, and grabbed a market share of 50 per cent. ICICI Bank is another recent example—it has become the largest bank in terms of market cap. A good time to buy stocks is when the company is not a leader, but a marginal player, and then it displays aggression to become number one or two, and does it. I think that in the cellular services space, we could see one of the smaller players coming from behind, and changing the rules of the game in the future. Besides de-regulation in India, our companies have the global market as their playing field. Many companies are trying to find their own feet in the global markets, and some of them will become mega corporations over the next decade or so.

 

Focus

 

We have found that 95-97 per cent of the wealth creating companies have a single line of business, where they excel. As a corollary, these companies expand in their existing business rather than diversifying into other areas. Look at how Holcim is growing within the same franchise in Gujarat Ambuja and in fact, in ACC, it has divested from unrelated businesses. The benefit of focus is that the incremental cost of production is lower, there is no need to introduce new brands, sales and marketing costs are lower, all of which result in better profitability. Plus, companies gain dominance in their markets. Even managing people is easier. For the investor, it is easy to invest in a company that has a single line of business. If I have conviction in cement, I am better off investing in a pure cement play rather than a diversified company. Also, markets typically value diversified companies lower than focused companies. Improving business economics

 

I will explain this with two personal examples. I bought Birla Corp and Bharti Airtel around three years ago at Rs 30 and Rs 25 respectively, when both were loss-making companies, and today Birla Corp is at Rs 330 and Bharti is at Rs 600. In case of Birla Corp, the economics of the cement business has undergone a complete change. This year, the company will post an EPS of Rs 35, which is higher than my purchase price. Bharti had a small operating margin, high interest and depreciation costs, and was loss-making when I bought it, but after seeing the possible growth and how similar companies had fared in other countries, I was convinced. So, in wealth creating companies, the economics of businesses improves over time.

 

Five-year payback outlook

 

Typically, we have seen that a high growth business, which is run by an outstanding management and purchased with a five-year pay-back outlook of less than one times has a good chance of being a big winner. What this means is that will the company pay back what you put in over the next five years. This is a valuation metric, though a little tricky. First, people do not look at what will happen over the next five years. So, you have to take a call whether the company will pay back your current purchase price. For example, if a company is trading at a market cap of Rs 1 lakh crore, then the question to ask is will the company pay back that amount over the next five years. If it pays this back, then the expanded residual business becomes free to me. But this is not easy. The Rs 1 lakh crore company is not going to be earning Rs 20,000 crore a year. It will be at Rs 5,000-7,000 crore, and it is likely to have a P/E of 20 or 25. What can be done is that you have to assume a conservative growth rate that you are convinced about and calculate what it will earn in the next five years. Here you can use the PEG ratio (which is the P/E multiple divided by the future growth rate). As long as the PEG multiple is below 0.5 (say a P/E of 20 and growth of 40 per cent), you will be fine. On the other hand, if a company has a P/E ratio of 40 and will grow at 40 per cent, then it will take about eight years to pay back your money. You may make money in this case, but it will not be as good as in the previous case where you buy at a PEG of 0.5.

 

(The author is Managing Director at Motilal Oswal Securities)

 



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Only buy something that you'd be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years - Buffet


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 9:20am
Excellent. We can have some of our Netizians to contribute here as well.The PEG mantra is a must read for everyone.


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: nil_money
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 11:21am
excellent interview Clap

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Thanks,
Nilesh


Posted By: Ajaya
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 11:33am
Originally posted by gcpradhan1

 

Five-year payback outlook

  

Here you can use the PEG ratio (which is the P/E multiple divided by the future growth rate). As long as the PEG multiple is below 0.5 (say a P/E of 20 and growth of 40 per cent), you will be fine. On the other hand, if a company has a P/E ratio of 40 and will grow at 40 per cent, then it will take about eight years to pay back your money. You may make money in this case, but it will not be as good as in the previous case where you buy at a PEG of 0.5.

  

 
Basant jee  It could be a silly question but I would appreciate ur response..
 
in calculation of PEG ratio above ,we need to take trailing PE or Forward PE. Again the company growth rate is the topline growth rate or bottomline growthrate we need to consider.
 
 
 
 


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 11:40am
In bull markets take forward PE and in bear markets trailing. It might seem funny and stupid but that is what analysts do.LOL

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: Ajaya
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 11:45am
Thanks for the answer.I had one more question on that..
 
the company growth rate is the topline growth rate or bottomline growthrate we need to consider.


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 13/Dec/2007 at 11:51am
Generally topline, Bottomline growth can be manipulated by changing depreciation/inventory/amortizing policies etc.


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 3:20pm
by 2010 one co which is discused regularly by a korean appears may have a PEG ofanywhere between 0.32-0.40     i have taken 2010 eps at 16 and growth at 40%

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 3:51pm
Take the EPS at 20 and the growth at 80% till 2010 then there would  be some fun. Try and be reasonable sometimes.
 
 


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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: smartcat
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 3:54pm
LOL 
 
Yes sir. We can always bank on you for such wise advice.


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 3:56pm
i like to be kanjuice when making guesstimates

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: omshivaya
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 4:18pm
Originally posted by tigershark

by 2010 one co which is discused regularly by a korean appears may have a PEG ofanywhere between 0.32-0.40     i have taken 2010 eps at 16 and growth at 40%
 
Shame Shame puppy shame! Only 40%!!??LOL
 
Take growth >85% and see the Trailing PE again. Even better, try seeing the forward PE, then "getting jiggy with it" will happen! There is still time for non-TEDdies to discover it, let's see.


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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 7:15pm
 
5 GOLDEN RULES---Ramdeo Agarwal
 
The first rule to investing is ‘Don’t lose money’. The second rule to investing is ‘Don’t forget rule no. 1’! They are:

1. Assess the entry barriers created by a company

Entry barrier should be preferably intellectual in character. Remember, a stock is nothing but a stake in the company’s business. Entry barrier should be long-lasting. Buy into such companies at the earliest. “Though difficult to practice, think ahead of the crowd”

2. Management should be competent and passionate

Competence or passion alone will not work. An individual with a local degree combined with passion would have greater growth prospects than one who has a Harvard degree but no passion. A company like Pantaloon Retail is a shining example of how passion can create wealth. “The definition of a great company is one that will remain great for many years”

3. Management should have integrity

If honesty is part of a company’s DNA, it will be fair to its smallest stakeholders – the minority retail shareholders. “Without management integrity, no margin of safety can be high enough”


4. Buy low

The price that you pay for a stock determines your rate of return.

The quote - “In the bible it is said that love takes care of a lot of sins. In investments, purchase price takes care of a lot of mistakes” – is very apt. You can make mistakes on assessing the first three parameters, since they are subjective in nature, but getting the right purchase price covers up for all your mistakes. Hence, estimate the expected value / intrinsic value of the company and keep an adequate margin of safety in the purchase price. “It is much more important to buy cheap than to sell dear”

5. Have patience

After having bought a company that conforms to all the above four criteria, you need to have patience. Investing in equities is often driven by two emotions – greed and fear. And patience is the mantra that helps overcome these emotions. Patience makes the difference between investing and speculation. It’s like a fertiliser to the investment process. “In reality, patience is crucial, but it is a rare commodity”

End note

Investing is laying out today’s money for more in the future. Its about performance of the underlying assets. Success in investing is the outcome of a disciplined approach. 

 
Source: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Market_Analysis/5-step_guide_to_locating_a_wealth_creator/articleshow/2620905.cms - ET
 
Clap wah wah Clap 
 
 
 
 
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 8:08pm
Hey, did i read Pantaoon Retail? Now that is news when did he become interested in pantaloon or is this just an example?

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 8:22pm
 Mental makeup to be a successful investor--Ramdeo Agarwal.


1. Informational Framework

Information is power. Reading is essential to develop a trained and prepared mind. To get a global understanding, recommended readings are FT, Business Week, Fortune, Forbes and The Economist.

2. Analytical Framework

Next is the analytical framework i.e. how to think about competition, complexity, etc. This can be gained by reading select books on investmentEvery individual is blessed to be better than others within his own circle of competence. Identify your circle of competence and use the informational and analytical framework to see things that no one else can see.

3. Behavioural Framework

Behavioural framework is the mental discipline that one needs to apply to the process of investing. Controlling greed is very important. If you have missed an opportunity, let it be. Don’t chase stocks. Money is not to be made from just one single stock. If you find margin of safety in an obscure company, although the market may not think it’s an L&T or Reliance, it’s fine. What is important is to find truly deep margin of safety and go for such companies, rather than have your portfolio decorated with big names.

Fear arises from the unknown. .. It’s your knowledge of what you are buying or holding that will reduce risk and the consequent fear.

One has to capitalise on the underlying value and more importantly remain invested during bad times.
 
Everyday ‘Mr. Market’ will keep checking your conviction. Most importantly, you need to understand that what you own is not just a piece of paper whose price will hopefully go up but a piece of business which will grow in value over time.

 
Link: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Corporate_Trends/Raamdeo_Agrawal_on_how_to_be_a_successful_investor/articleshow/2618490.cms - ET
 
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 8:56pm
omaha ja ke baba bahoot sudhar gaya hai!

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 9:05pm
Originally posted by tigershark

omaha ja ke baba bahoot sudhar gaya hai!
 
LOL ha ha. Good one!
 
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 9:09pm
to his bad luck thereis one buffet and there will be one buffet

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 9:56pm
Originally posted by tigershark

omaha ja ke baba bahoot sudhar gaya hai!


Actually you have summed it up very well. I was wondering that he suddenly seems much more intellligent and smart then we see him on tv but tiger elephants have two sets of teeth i saw a presentation from chat lal and there he was explaining concepts like punchcard with 20 holes and why investor should buy only so many stocks and about betting hard,moat, business model etc etc but if you look at his stocks they are far too many and he has come with big multibaggers but that anyone recommending 100 stocks could have done in this bull market when the sensex has gone up 7 times.

The trick is to implement what you preach and that is 90% of the story for that individual but for people like us we get 90% benefit from what they preach and 0% from what they do.

Otherwise ramdeo has not done anything significant post bharti, hero honda etc if he just tries to understand how much of these principles are explained in his cement stocks, hp/bp,steel etc then he would understand what i am referring to.

Please note that here i am talking about following what you preach and not about making or not making money.

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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: PrashantS
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 11:07pm
Agar he doesnt talk about cement steel  Ramdeo ki duan kaise chalegi..Motulal Oswalji ko bhi chalana hey.Buy today sell tomorrow ..and make us more motu by giving us more moat


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 7:29am
i sometimes wonder  what strong entry barriers  motilal oswal has? anybody with a bag full of money can start a brokerage business and if i pay much more than what some top research analysts are getting today theyll probably jump ship and work for me  ----- high atttrition rate   and if the mkt slows down atailwind becomes a headwind  right?

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 9:12am
              I know he got Bharti right because at a CNBC meet some years ago(someone told me this) Ramdeo was recommendinding Bharti and it went up several times after that.
             He puts across  his ideas very clearly and impressively.
               


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Ajith


Posted By: vip1
Date Posted: 14/Dec/2007 at 11:21am
Motilal Oswal also had Long term buy on 2 stocks  when both were around 200 , AXix then UTI Bank and Jaiprakash Inds .
The idea is to filter what these Guys say.


Posted By: kulman
Date Posted: 15/Dec/2007 at 6:50pm
 
To generate hyper wealth, you have to buy stocks that no one else is looking for

The top wealth creators since 2002 are stocks like Unitech, BF Utilities, Anant Raj Industries, Praj Industries, Aban Offshore, Kirloskar Brothers, Gujarat Flourochem, Sesa Goa, Areva T&D and Pantaloon Retail.

Bargains are found when the markets are blind to change. You have to buy when the company is not visible to the market,” says Agrawal.

The trick is to find young companies which are less than 10 years old. These tend to report higher growth in profits.

The smaller the market valuation, the larger the returns over time.

sectors that will perform well in the days to come: “Predominantly domestic businesses such as banking, real estate, engineering and construction are likely to enjoy a higher share of wealth created,” the study points out. There will be continued rise in the demand for luxury goods and services such as cars, ACs and travel.

Comforts such as low-end household appliances (TVs, refrigerators), cellphones, healthcare and education will also grow much faster than necessities.

Link: http://www.dnaindia.com/report.asp?newsid=1139432 - Think small to find red-hot stocks
 
 
 


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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards


Posted By: s_praharaj
Date Posted: 22/Dec/2007 at 4:03pm
One of my close friend has invested 1 crore under portfolio management with motilal oswal. He was telling me that all the portfolios of 1 crore and above are monitored by Mr agrawal himself. Out of curiosity I asked him to show me his portfolio. The portfolio is having around 12 stocks. I found all are sector leaders like Infosys,DLF,Ranbaxy,  Reliance Energy etc. I did not find a single stock, which needs strong skills to idenrify. The portfolio has given 19% return in last 7 months.
 
I have not read this thread earlier. After going through this thread,I am thinking, what speciality is there with the PMS of them. TED is much better and given super return than others.


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Shashi Praharaj


Posted By: tigershark
Date Posted: 22/Dec/2007 at 4:14pm
pl introduce your friend to TED!thats the best you can do for him

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understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things


Posted By: basant
Date Posted: 22/Dec/2007 at 4:15pm
Originally posted by s_praharaj

One of my close friend has invested 1 crore under portfolio management with motilal oswal. He was telling me that all the portfolios of 1 crore and above are monitored by Mr agrawal himself. Out of curiosity I asked him to show me his portfolio. The portfolio is having around 12 stocks. I found all are sector leaders like Infosys,DLF,Ranbaxy,  Reliance Energy etc. I did not find a single stock, which needs strong skills to idenrify. The portfolio has given 19% return in last 7 months.
 

I have not read this thread earlier. After going through this thread,I am thinking, what speciality is there with the PMS of them. TED is much better and given super return than others.


Actually this remainsa mystery to me some people know so muc about others but when it comes to application of that knowledge it comes to a complete zero.

I have mentioned this elswhere that Ramdeo is more smarter in his words then in his deeds.



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'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in


Posted By: aloksahi1971
Date Posted: 22/Dec/2007 at 6:19pm
I have had the misfortune of investing with the PMS schemes too.These are portfolios to dump shares that are gradualy going out from the portfolio of the mutual funds /more savy investors. The PMS guys operate with the clear underatanding that the person going for the PMS is chiefly interested in capital appreciation. I have faced a piquent situation where the PMS account was first peged to the Sensex and then after the MAY 2006 crash peged to the Mid cap index.


Posted By: Ajith
Date Posted: 22/Dec/2007 at 10:16pm
          The worst case I heard was a blue chip portfolio handed over to the PMS guys who managed a 60 percent return as against the quadrupling of the original portfolio.

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Ajith


Posted By: KUNJ
Date Posted: 06/Mar/2009 at 7:26am
Ramdeo Agarwal in his monthly resarch letter - MOST VALUE has been recomending TISCO strongly, even in latest March 09 Strategy.....says look attractive at current levels.......
 
But herad him saying in an interview on CNBC day before yesterday that he would ignore TISCO...rather look for SAIL...
 
Now whom to trust...??
 
His words at CNBC or his words in his resarch report??????
 
 


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Posted By: Vivek Sukhani
Date Posted: 06/Mar/2009 at 8:54am
Trust neither......trust your own instinct, and follow promoters' action rather than the analysts' actions.
 
Always understand that people speak with a vested interest. So, beware of people who recommend, and the harder they recommend, the harder you run away from them.


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Jai Guru!!!


Posted By: Hitesh Shah
Date Posted: 07/Mar/2009 at 12:16pm
No one has commented on my post under Tata Corus Cry made http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1254&PID=102104#102104 - here

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