Now let us take it this way.
If someone told an investor that DIsh Tv which is currently at Rs 130 should be close to Rs 210 in about one year 80% of people would say tell us something that can double in 3-6 months? That is tragic because an ignorant is trying to hit six sixes in an over when he has to get just 8 in an over.
Buffet achieved his returns in an economy that did not have sudden gush of air like Software, Telecom,Retail, Property, Media etc but here we are sitting at the cusp of change. Maybe in 3-4 years the horses would change but the endevour should be to choose faster horses rather then older ones.
If at all anyone can do that 60% CAGR it would come from a buy and hold strategy and by avoiding big mistakes.- I am pretty sure about that.The only mistake he can do is to lose the opportunity cost
I am be sounding confident but that confidence is not based upon hollow premise. We can generate that kind of return the idea is to look at companies which we can sit down with for 2-3 years. Actually it is not that simple but also not impossible.
Now for a 25% - 30% HDFC Bank is a no brainer. the problem starts when we start hitting that 50%-60% level on the ambition scale.
If we start taking that 10 year call then things would go wrong what we need to do is take small 2-3 year calls and then periodically monitor the situation.
A team that chases 350 to win in 50 overs tries to get 100 in the first 15 overs with not more then two wickets down. The wickets are our stocks/mistakes. Remember Buffet's call for a 20 hole punch card and no man should buy a 21st company in his entire lifetime. That is the need of the hour.
Personally I am a dreamer and I dream about my company's EPS 4-5 years hence even while I am walking on the road. I use my mobile as a calculator and every time I have nothing to do I am extrapolating the EPS....