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Emerging companies - Mid caps that can become large cap
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Topic: India Bulls - Property and Brokerage
    Posted: 14/Aug/2006 at 4:55pm
This topic was started prior to the demerger of Indiabulls
 
Brokerages trade at market caps of billions across the world. Putting the same analogy one could look at Geojit, Indiabulls, Indiainfoline - in order of preference.


Edited by basant - 26/Mar/2007 at 12:24pm
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 14/Sep/2006 at 1:08pm
What is your views on demerger of Indiabulls and management capabilty of venturing into new are and making weath for shareholders. I was surprised to notice that indiabulls case study was not there in demerger/spinoff section
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Hi , Thanks for yourr message. India bulls could become a big story. There are a few pure brokerages listed in India and Whatever happened Globally will happen in India. More over the spin off of the real estate venture shall add to the stock price. Guess we did discuss this earlier but very briefly.


Edited by basant - 26/Sep/2007 at 11:07am
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Quote PrashantS Replybullet Posted: 03/Nov/2006 at 12:36pm
very valid point vishal.....Bsantji isnt Indiabulls a specualtive build up in this Finance sector...
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 12/Nov/2006 at 9:19am
Vipulji. You have been a big IndiaBulls bull (Rs 285 at that time) ever since we started this forum. Can you elaborate to us the concept/details on the future course of action.This is another of the classic spin off cases.
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Quote vip1 Replybullet Posted: 12/Nov/2006 at 9:45am

The Demerger of the Real Estate arm is the start of Value creation in India Bulls . Laxmi Mittal is also invested in one of its subsidaries.

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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 12/Nov/2006 at 10:04am

Indiabulls (IBFL) is holding entity for it's operating companies in different businesses/sectors. Some of them are real estate, securities, consumer loans, mmortgage loans, commodities and oil&gas.

IBFL has rich valuation and probably over valued from every angle. so, I advise reader to take caution before making any decision. It is high risk bet now. One should refrain from here unless you are looking for long term. Near term stability may be there due to short term trigger (demerger) but in general, only lion hearted ppl can hold this.

 This is my second recommendation after YES Bank. IBFL and YB have opposite face. YB is of a more fundamental play whereas IBFL is more of fancy play. Here I try to explain insight of IBFL...

 

IBFL as I said is holding entity. I boosts name of LN Mittals and Sovereign Global apart from Farallon capital and FIIs (like goldman, deushe, JP and all that). Mittal put money when it was private company at 6 rupees. He is the one who generally don't money in other sectors. Story of Sovereign Global is now known to everybody. they put 11% of FI in entire 2005. A big and influencial company. Best part is that most of these ppl have not purchased from secondary markets whereas their holding is from preferential allotments. This makes us believe who much trust they have in the IBFL.

With preferential allotment, company make a definite commitment whereas from purchase from secondary market does not have any such bearings. Bidding for UWB was interesting bit of intention.

 I will come to each of these operating businesses later as forum grows.



Edited by vipul - 12/Nov/2006 at 10:07am
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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Quote deveshkayal Replybullet Posted: 12/Nov/2006 at 10:37am
CLSA has predicted 40000 target for Sensex over long term and it is realistic as they say.If it really touches that indiabulls will benefit but competition is heating up as Reliance Money is offering at lower rates as reported in ET.Reliance can incur losses over 1-2 years as they had donce in RCL
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Quote xbox Replybullet Posted: 13/Nov/2006 at 5:07am
IBFL has following operating businesses ..
1. Securities
 In this biz, IBFL is among the largest domestic players. This biz is closely related to stock/commodity markets. Assuming Indian market will be highly voletile market for times to come, I assume profits will only florish from here. It is good, strong and fundamental business of the group. I assume, they would like to own majority of this, as this is cash cow for all other forays. So talk of sale to ADA group will definately be rumor. May be times to come, they will opt for stategic foreign investor like goldman, waterhouse etc. But they would like to control this as long as they can. This is strong, growing biz. Expect exponential rise in EPS (as it has been so far).
2. Financial Services
I like this most. This consists of consumer loans, mortgages and credit card. There is good future for this biz anf like securities, this will grow exponentially. By no way they are tiny players in this sector. Last quater, they distributed loans worth 500 Cr. Assuming they have just 33 offices, this is not a bad start. Assuming they have 200 offices by 2008 and with some extrapolation, we can say by 2008 they will distribute loans worth 3000 Cr per quater (this is a approx figure). They have advantage over PSU banks as they have dedicated offices only for loans.
 All along, I used to think that this biz is operational from same (securities) offices, but I was wrong. They have different offices for securies, consumer and morgages biz, as profile of visiters are different.
Recently IBFL, told that they are now thinking of resctrucuring this biz aswell. They said it may be demerger but nothing is decided, we are in thinking process.
It is very good business to own. I have a strong feeling that this will also be demergerd because they have direct investors in this operating companies (unlike securities biz). Guys will put money in operating business when they think of hiving this at later stage.
3. Real estate
Nothing to say really. All is publically known by now. It is free gift for ppl how picked IBFL at around 190 at as recent as May/June. Those ppl are wealthy by their karma.
4. Oil&Gas
They had bid for CMB 3. Very few ppl know about this. But one can see DGH website and cross check. But sad part is that they were not allocated any block. So I assume investment in this biz is loss unless something big comes. As LNM is sitting for IBFL, there is quite a changes that something big will come under this biz aswell.
 
Now come to biggest oppertunity. That is owning a Bank. IBFL promotors have intention to own a bank post 2009. Bid for UWB was a small step under this. I am sure one day, they will buy a bank from it's consumer finance biz. If that happens, it will be biggest move by promotors of IBFL.
 
 
Don't bet on pig after all bull & bear in circle.
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