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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 01/Oct/2006 at 10:01am
Basantjee
 
What shall I say?...an excellent measured response by you...as usual!
Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 26/Oct/2006 at 9:29am
Hi,
 
This quarter's numbers have been very good and also very surprising...the biggest surprise came yesterday, when I saw Zee's results, Sical's results and shipping Corporation's results. Zee was such a disappointment. PAT was down inspite of Higher Other Income, Lower depreciation and lower Tax... Sical considered one of the biggest beneficiaries of Infrastricture boom, reported a dismal quarterly. And the best of all, considered a cyclical play, a laggard, a slow moving PSU, Shipping Corporation reported a stellar...
 
All this brings me to say.... either the quarterlies are non-sense which reveal as much or probaly less than what it conceals or The Market is getting hopelessly wrong. I hope the former is the case, because with this of sort of earnings, if companies like Zee or Sical come under any pressure, they may get help of anytng but financials and with people so very much invested in them, lets see what the market does.
 
I am equally perplexed in trying to locate the future and ignoring the present. If present is anything to go by, the future will be quite different from what the market is forecasting....but then we should remember an old adage:
You cannot change your past. But you can ruin your present by worrying unnecessarily about the future.
 
I can be blamed for being a value seeker but then waiting for value to emerge and ignoring value which the present has, is in my humble opinion, an invaluable mistake....
 
What do you say??????
 
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manishdave
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 26/Oct/2006 at 10:20am
Originally posted by Vivek Sukhani

Hi,
 
This quarter's numbers have been very good and also very surprising...the biggest surprise came yesterday, when I saw Zee's results, Sical's results and shipping Corporation's results. Zee was such a disappointment. PAT was down inspite of Higher Other Income, Lower depreciation and lower Tax... Sical considered one of the biggest beneficiaries of Infrastricture boom, reported a dismal quarterly. And the best of all, considered a cyclical play, a laggard, a slow moving PSU, Shipping Corporation reported a stellar...
 
All this brings me to say.... either the quarterlies are non-sense which reveal as much or probaly less than what it conceals or The Market is getting hopelessly wrong. I hope the former is the case, because with this of sort of earnings, if companies like Zee or Sical come under any pressure, they may get help of anytng but financials and with people so very much invested in them, lets see what the market does.
 
I am equally perplexed in trying to locate the future and ignoring the present. If present is anything to go by, the future will be quite different from what the market is forecasting....but then we should remember an old adage:
You cannot change your past. But you can ruin your present by worrying unnecessarily about the future.
 
I can be blamed for being a value seeker but then waiting for value to emerge and ignoring value which the present has, is in my humble opinion, an invaluable mistake....
 
What do you say??????
 
 
Vivek,
In case of Sical I believe management is SPIC group. If that is the case I have puzzle challange for members.
Who is best of three? Videocon, Essar or SPIC group ?
Q are not non-sense. One has to use sense how to play that. I dont mean to say buy at 10 pm and sell at 10:30 with Q, but see the trend. If comapany in good industry performs poorly Q on Q, dump it. On the otherhand, sometimes you can find hidden jewel.
Let's say you are interested in cement industry, watch q reults of all cement companies. That helps you big time.


Edited by manishdave - 26/Oct/2006 at 10:32am
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 26/Oct/2006 at 10:39am
Good quiz question...we can have a poll on that...by the way even SPIC has also come out with a disappointing result. I agree wih you, Q are not non-sense, but then markets seem to make no sense of them. People are chasing value when thats lying on the plate. They are imagining the FY09 and FY2010 results when their expected EPS os available in the current fiscal. Thats the anomaly.
 
Amara rja has produced a stellar. No wonder its quoting above Exide and in no time with these sort of result it will command a higher P/E as well. So, its better to play a pure battery game rather than a mix of battery cum insurance as people are doing in exide.
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reema
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Quote reema Replybullet Posted: 27/Oct/2006 at 5:25pm

Amarraja cannot be compared to Exide  See their track record.How is AMraja quoting above Exide? Please do not look at absolute stock prices in that case LMW is the best company in India?

Also market is never wrong  only they look to be wrong.
You should try to add wealth not multiply it
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Mohan
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Quote Mohan Replybullet Posted: 06/Mar/2007 at 4:55am
Very Soon Results season will be upon us.
Who will exceed expectations and who will not ???????????
Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 26/Jul/2007 at 10:08pm

The importance of a quarter

 

If you are an avid watcher of the business channels on television, you could not have missed the frenetic activity that accompanies the quarterly “earnings season” — the period when listed companies unveil their results for the latest quarter. In fact, the actual earnings announcement is often drowned by a veritable flood of analyst comments, Q&A sessions with the management and sound bytes from market players. All this is usually accompanied by sharp gyrations in the stock price of the company being discussed. Indeed, to find a stock battered by 5-10 per cent in a single day after ‘disappointing’ results is not an unusual occurrence.

 
Quarters as milestones

But if stock prices really capture a company’s earnings prospects over the next two-three years, why do results for a single quarter cause so much mayhem? Well, this exuberance is not entirely irrational. Here is why quarterly results influence stock prices.

Though the stock market typically values a company based on its estimated earnings over the next few years, the quarterly earnings announcements are milestones that help investors evaluate if a company is really on track to meet those expectations. Failure to meet the market’s expectations for a particular quarter naturally means higher targets for the rest of the year. Numbers that are better than what the majority of players in the market expected drive the stock prices up, as that may warrant an upward revision in the earnings expectations.

 
In fact, stock price gains for the Sensex companies over the past three years have been driven, to a large extent, by them repeatedly delivering earnings that are higher than analyst expectations.
 

Cues to future

Another reason why the earnings season is such an action-packed one for the stock markets is that they often provide cues to future earnings, from the company’s management. With disclosures improving, several companies use the earnings season to touch base with analysts and investors and update them on business developments.

 

Conference calls with analysts and the public appearances made by the company management, often give investors new insights about unfolding trends in the business as well as the outlook for it, over the next few quarters. The new information helps the stock market “reset” earnings expectations, triggering stock price moves.
 

Finally, the quarterly earnings season also helps to turn the spotlight on the earnings potential of the less-known mid-size and smaller companies. Remember; there is still a large cross-section of small and mid-cap stocks that are not yet tracked by an army of analysts. Stock prices for such under-researched stocks are often not shaped by formal “earnings estimates” or “consensus expectations” as in the case of the high profile companies.

 
Under the circumstances, the quarterly earnings announcement often serves as the only reference point for investors looking to evaluate such stocks. This is why the quarterly earnings season is often marked by frenetic activity in the mid-cap and small-cap space, with sharp jumps in stock prices shortly after a company’s results announcement. For some of the low-profile members of India Inc, the earnings season is the time to bask in a few moments of glory, fleeting though the stock markets’ attentions may be.
 
 
 
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 02/Aug/2007 at 9:41am
SEBI against companies giving quarterly guidance
 
The Chairman of the Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI), Mr M. Damodaran, today asked Indian industry to ponder over whether it was proper to give quarterly guidance “that to my mind is no different than forward-looking statements that regulations do not contemplate.”

Speaking at the National Conclave of the CII, Mr Damodaran said that some companies did that either because of “television audiences or because of analyst pressure.”

“You (already) have a problem of quarterly results being put out that puts extraordinary pressure on company managements to focus on numbers than how to take businesses forward,” Mr Damodaran said.

Because of this pressure, some companies indulge in “financial engineering,” he added.

Stocks in syllabus

The SEBI has succeeded in persuading the Ministry of Human Resources Development that it is not bad to put stock market related education in school syllabus, Mr Damodaran said.Clap

He added: “If you can vote for your representative at the age of 18, there is no harm in knowing what the stock market is all about. Till now it was resisted on the ground that young minds should not be “corrupted” by knowledge of stock markets.”

He also mentioned that the proposed setting up of National Institute of Securities Market, near Mumbai, would happen in a month.

Source: HBL news here

 
 
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