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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Topic: QSQT- Quarter se quarter tak!
    Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 8:29pm
With the forthcoming result season (2ndQ FY07-starting 1st week of Oct), the media will be buzzing with Quarterly Results, performance v/s expectations.....stocks will be beaten down due to falling below estimates..and all that usual drama.
 
In my view, punters take bets on expected results which makes the season highly volatile, giving opportunities sometimes when even some good stocks are beaten down too much.
 
I invite your views as investors whether & how should we look at company's performance QSQT (Quarter se quarter taq). Does it really deserve that much attention as media portrays?
Life can only be understood backwardsóbut it must be lived forwards
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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 9:09pm
To some extent, yes it is all good. As it keeps the companies on their toes and puts higher due diligence from the public, media on them. Checking something 4-times(quarterly) than 1 time in a year is always better.
 
About the hype and all, well...it cuts both ways! But one needs to "shut the noise out" and focus on "what oneself was expecting out of a company" and "what their company delivered" and not what an "analyst was expecting" and "what the company delivered".
 
 
Just my two cents! Me no experto pal!
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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kulman
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 9:21pm
OmShivay jee
 
Namaskar! Nice to see you back in action after a hiatus. Thanks for your views.
 
By the way, could not understand your changing avatar into a "bear". Your own pic was nice. Just an observation, if you do not mind.
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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 26/Sep/2006 at 9:50pm

Oooh yeahh! I am dashing  aint I? heee heee heee !

 
Jokes apart, I kept the "Bear" as it helps me remember something about the market whenever I post any message here: "The bear is around everytime and can pounce anytime so be alert"
 
It helps me keep my head on the ground and feet under them, not on the clouds!
 
 
Hope it's clear now


Edited by omshivaya - 26/Sep/2006 at 9:53pm
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 27/Sep/2006 at 10:02am
Good that you pinch yourself, Om. Although we may be sharing different perspectives yet I like watching your postswith intent. But, I agree with Kulman that you are no way like a bear.... that image suits a person like me who tries to find fault with everyone's idea.
 
Kulman, I beleive quarterlies are important if you are looking from the direction point of view.Trading on quarterlies may be dangerous though, yet sometimes they may be very profitable.As Om has said, remove the noise and you may come up with some excellent results. Also, reading quarterlies requires too much discipline. We dont getthe Balance Sheet details from our quarterlies and thats a major handicap. I can tell you, most of the managements can appear very aggressive as far asturnover is concerned but when it comes to generating cash, they arent as efficient. Most of the incremental sales finds it way in stocks and debtors which are riskier assets in my opinion.
 
In a nutshell, I admit the importance of qyarterlies and I am myself a quarterly buff.They give me re-assyrance when i am on track or send me warning signs...
 
Vivek
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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 28/Sep/2006 at 1:12pm

Very nice brief Vivek. And fyi, I find it good for you to find "fault with others" at 1st sight as that leads to objectivity and clarity on the topic being discussed.

The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Vivek Sukhani
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Quote Vivek Sukhani Replybullet Posted: 29/Sep/2006 at 2:48pm
When I first read QSQT, i thought it meant Qayamat se Qayamat Tak... now I realise it means something even more interesting...good topic...
 
Reagrds,
 
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 01/Oct/2006 at 11:17pm
Kulman Jee: It all depends on the investors perspective and the sectors he wants to be invested in if his money has been put in technology then he needs to hear each word of what is spoken from the Infy Campus at bangalore  and if he is with a stock called Tata Investments then it hardly matters.
 
I do hear with a lot of interest about what my companies have delivered but then one quarter does not create a buy or a sell deciusion for me. in fact i rarely remember having sold anything or bought anything on the basis of QSQT. This is interesting. I had poicked up a significant quantity of NDTV in 2004 now when the co. came out with its results for the sep qtr my estimate for the NP was 10 crs and the co, was well below that. the stock traded at rs 98 and i had got in at around Rs 80. SInce the results came after market hours on Friday I was not sure of what to do. I had lost 50% one year back in Mastek in one day and I thouight that maybe NDTV would meet the same fate.
 
FOr the next two days I was doing a mental simulation what if it opens at Rs 90 or at Rs 88.. what should I do.... Finally on Monday morning at 9.55 am I was ready with my mouse (I trade online) and it opened at Rs 95. Now had it opened at Rs 90 I would have sold but when I was some buyer at Rs 95 I thought there is something more to this then I could see.
 
The stock recovered and was at Rs 100 by 10.30 and I did not sell any thing on that day.
 
Morale of the story: WHen ever your company reports a bad result which you think should be bearish for the stock and the stock refuses to go down DO NOT SELL. There is something in the stock that the market knows but you don't.
 
In my case I was forgetting that NDTV was no Mastek and that this was a 4-5 year story and one quarter did not change the fortune. FOr stable competative business QSQT means quarter se quarter tak and for the instable high PE stocks it does mean Aamir Khan and Juhi Chawla.


Edited by basant - 01/Oct/2006 at 11:22pm
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