Thanks Sanuj. Firstly, if there is a slowdown in IT, the chance of more orders coming in is same as "orders slowing down". 2ndly, TCS has a PE of around 30-35 usually. And if TCS(being a sector leader) cant deliver on the revenue front, almost everyone in this sector would be beaten down.
2ndly, TCS will deliver. TCS and HDFC is being kept so that my portfolio gets a good growth rate as well in a crash situation, the recovery is faster than usual, this taking some pain away. TCS will definitely clock in excess of 30% y-o-y growth I believe and you rightly mentioned the same too.
TCS PE is still at a discount to Infy and compared to growth(TTM) and forward, TCS is at a fair PE and not huge in any sense. Infy you could be right, I dunno!
Also, on the overoptimism you mentioned regarding Infy and TCS, that is possible in case of Infy. But in case of TCS, people usually are mildly optimistic bcoz it has a lesser-flamboyant image than Infy. Also, after the May meltdown, people have got a good lesson and expectations should have got a good toning down, so that bodes well for TCS again!
At least till 2010-11,things look good for these two. After that, I shall think of TCS in a fresh new light, seeing what kind of "new growth path" does TCS set for next 5 years, after 10 billion US$. If I like it, good. Else I shall not hesitate taking off 50% of TCS and allocating somewhere else!
Thanks for your input sanuj!
Edited by omshivaya - 20/Sep/2006 at 3:09am