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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Topic: Om Shivaya's portfolio.
    Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 8:02pm
Hi there,
 
Ok here goes (All figures are approx.):
 
TCS: 25.4%
HDFC: 25.4%
L&T: 8.4%
Rel Comm: 3.3%
Nucleus Software: 18.6%
VIP Inds.: 7.8%
Cash Holding: 8.47% (planning to deploy into TV18)
Plan to gather some fresh money: 5% of cash-equivalent of 'folio(as per current 'folio amount) for deployment into Pantaloon or some new value-pick.
 
So in totality: 8 stocks, including TV18(to be bought) and Pantaloon(to be bought)
 
Rest below, are not of much significance.
 
BSEL Infra(punter call, quick in and out in a year hopefully, for pocket-money): 0.42%
Rel. Petro.: 0.10%
 
 
 
 
Hope you can review it Mr. Basant. Thanks.


Edited by omshivaya - 25/Sep/2006 at 3:27am
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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reetesh
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Quote reetesh Replybullet Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 9:32pm
Hey OM, gr8 to see your post and portfolio and hope to see you start contributing in enhancing our knowledge.
When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 9:47pm
Absolutely. Well said reetesh!
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote prosperity Replybullet Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 9:53pm
Om,
 
Nice to see you back !
 
Cheers, Prosperity ...
 
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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 10:05pm
I have been reading all posts from you(Mr. Basant),bubble, kulman, reesth, prosperity,  among others and you are all on the right track. Keep it up. Remember to take a breather every now and then, as every masterpiece of creativity/art/value-pick requires one to take sometime out from creating/painting/value-picking itself. If we are all the time into this, fresh ideas and perspectives will not come.
 
Keep it going. Good luck everyone. God Bless. When you have time Mr. Basant, please do analyze my portfolio as it will help me get one more knowledgable perspective on the scheme of my things.


Edited by omshivaya - 20/Sep/2006 at 10:06pm
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 10:13pm
Thank you for your kind words.
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote sanujkr Replybullet Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 12:06pm

Is INFY and TCS makes defensive to your portfolio….???????

 

I think the biggest risk in these two stocks is over optimism, we have seen the result of that in April 2004, when INFY crashed over 25 % in single session, after its shocking guidance…of course after that they have beaten all guidance’s in a big margin...

 

But I think because of its high growth (30 %+) and visibility in strong earnings, stock commands a huge P/E. and it is over owned (every mutual fund and every Foreign institutions have over weightage on INFY and TCS). I think the real challenge is that they have to add over 1$Billion + New Biz every year to sustain its historical growth rate.

 

I think even if there is a slowdown in US and Indian IT industry, company can’t stay with its 30 %+ growth, it will result a P/E  under Re-rating in IT stocks, 

 

But, both INFY and TCS are on track, they are the pioneers and the leaders in the industry and at best we can dream that they are hitting 10$billion Turnover in 2010.

Ie will be a proud moment for every Indians……………

 

Thanks

 

Sanuj kadavil

 

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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 20/Sep/2006 at 12:19pm
Thanks Sanuj. Firstly, if there is a slowdown in IT, the chance of more orders coming in is same as "orders slowing down". 2ndly, TCS has a PE of around 30-35 usually. And if TCS(being a sector leader) cant deliver on the revenue front, almost everyone in this sector would be beaten down.
 
2ndly, TCS will deliver. TCS and HDFC is being kept so that my portfolio gets a good growth rate as well in a crash situation, the recovery is faster than usual, this taking some pain away. TCS will definitely clock in excess of 30% y-o-y growth I believe and you rightly mentioned the same too.
 
TCS PE is still at a discount to Infy and compared to growth(TTM) and forward, TCS is at a fair PE and not huge in any sense. Infy you could be right, I dunno!
 
Also, on the overoptimism you mentioned regarding Infy and TCS, that is possible in case of Infy. But in case of TCS, people usually are mildly optimistic bcoz it has a lesser-flamboyant image than Infy. Also, after the May meltdown, people have got a good lesson and expectations should have got a good toning down, so that bodes well for TCS again!
 
At least till 2010-11,things look good for these two. After that, I shall think of TCS in a fresh new light, seeing what kind of "new growth path" does TCS set for next 5 years, after 10 billion US$. If I like it, good. Else I shall not hesitate taking off 50% of TCS and allocating somewhere else!
 
 
Thanks for your input sanuj!


Edited by omshivaya - 20/Sep/2006 at 3:09am
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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