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Message Icon Topic: 2012 so far – The year of the Dirty Picture Post Reply Post New Topic
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koolvalue
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Quote koolvalue Replybullet Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 9:16pm
whatever said we cannot deny presence of easy dollars
in Indian stock markets--

Considering our political leadership,cast based politics,
political subsidies,credibility of political leadership,
corruption,discriminating business policies hard earned money will never to india.

FOR those FIIS who are investing in INDIA,LAS VEGAS slot
machines offer better payout ratio with similar thrill
of gambling.
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FutureBull
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Quote FutureBull Replybullet Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 9:52pm
Koolvalue, I appreciate your thought but I do not agree that we are worse than other markets. Our market PE is much better than Korea, Russia, China, Brazil etc etc only because our companies have better corp. governance, return ratios and that's what matters for an investor. Govt. is extremely supportive to local companies in other three of BRIC nations but do they get higher discounting? an emphatic no! All these problems you have mentioned are part of evolution process for an emerging market. USA was full of mafia owned businesses in early 20th century but that did not stop it from becoming world power. We will take time but things would improve in long term. At least I remain hopeful.
‘The market always does what it’s supposed to — BUT NEVER WHEN’.
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rajnsharma
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Quote rajnsharma Replybullet Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 10:17pm
Whatever little I have learnt in my small investing phase of my life, I have learnt two simple things;
1. An investor must be an eternal optimist.
2. One must buy companies, not markets.

Raj
Wall Street makes money by it's activity, while you can make money by your in-activity - Warren Buffett
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datta.supratik
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Quote datta.supratik Replybullet Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 10:22pm
Well an alternate viewpoint is that when you get into a line of least resistance pointing upwards, it might sound awkward but the highest betas would give u a better return in short term than the larger ones.

After all how many times have we seen the beaten down names are 'assumed' cheap and bought into the bull market for a great 2-3 bagger.

It might turn that a Hindustan Dorr or REC gives u a better return than an HDFC bank or Page or Cravatex.

It might make some sense to allocate a small portion and play the rally buying into the lesser favorite names of the last bear market - only if you can lose that portion and still sleep tight at night.

Who know you might have thread up at TED 'Building up a Portfolio at Sensex 28000' by Dec2012.

After all Dirty picture has sweep ed all awards - will the stock market show us the dirty game!!

~Supratik
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munger
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Quote munger Replybullet Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 11:42pm
Can someone please explain why Sintex is not a good stock to consider for a long term investment.

Past record indicates volatility but consistent returns.

Thanks
Munger
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neeraj_kumar
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Quote neeraj_kumar Replybullet Posted: 20/Feb/2012 at 10:47am
Originally posted by rajnsharma

Whatever little I have learnt in my small investing phase of my life, I have learnt two simple things;
1. An investor must be an eternal optimist.
2. One must buy companies, not markets.

Raj


I liked your comment, sir.
This is exactly what I have learnt also.

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dipankar66
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Quote dipankar66 Replybullet Posted: 22/Feb/2012 at 4:55pm
The start of a rally generally begins with beaten down stocks (and not stocks like Titan/Page) as there is perceived higher margin of safety in buying a beaten down stock. One may, rightfully, buy a metal company's/bank's stock quoting at close to or below book value than a FMCG stock which is fully priced (at least not hugely mispriced in different parameters, so there is small margin of safety in buying them, e. g. TTK Prestige/Page). would you like to buy a beaten down HDFC or Yes Bank than a Page Industries at 30-35 PE? Here, in this rally, even Tata Motors and Yes Bank have outperformed the Sensex and not only JP Associates (although best performer probably is Reliance Infra).
What has happened is that a lot of traders expected the index to go lower and lower on the back of Index heavyweight stocks, and went on selling/shorting them and in the process deep value emerged in those counters.
This has happened earlier also, and surely will happen again.
As regards the market expectations, there is optimism about rate hike cycle and inflation peaking, UP election results might change the balance of power at New Delhi, and last but not the least, the Greek situation.
As regards the last, I always maintained that Greece would not be allowed to default by US and Germany as the politicians would dread at the prospect of another recession, specially when they will face the electorate in a year or so. So they would, (like everyone else, as it's only human) kick the can down the road and there would be some haircut for the bondholders and a European QE. The GDP of Greece is not so huge so as to arrange the cash for the bailout, although, Italy, France and Spain are different matters because of the sheer size of their economies.
If the rally continues, which is likely at this stage, the leadership may change from the beaten down names, as, after some time, the valuation argument will not hold water.
DD
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rinkumalpani
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Quote rinkumalpani Replybullet Posted: 23/Feb/2012 at 2:51pm
Originally posted by rinkumalpani

   Agrre sir.This was a wonderful opportunity for people to buy almost anything to get gud returns but such opportunities come once in a while. The only thing which would have led one to buy these stocks would be either experience or luck .But the hardwork that goes into identifying potential multibaggers to the tune of 5-10 times in the next three years irrespective of markets and nifty behaviour based on fundamentals and technicals will definitely multiply wealth in the long run.I have always believed that no bull run is over unless some shortsellers lose heavily and looking at the market behaviour,It seems this might have been a trap. Short kaRney walon key kapdein utar gayein hongey.
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