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omshivaya
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Joined: 06/Sep/2006
Location: India
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Posts: 5508
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   Topic: Technicals - Playing numbers
Posted: 12/Sep/2006 at 5:48pm |
Hi,
I just thought of posting a topic which tried playing with a stock from a chartist point of view. I opened this post only to see if anyone has made any particular observation regarding a particular stock, like when the stock reaches a particular price, it keeps coming down from that price everytime.
Or something like: On a friday, some kind of movement takes place in the sensex 8 out of 10 times.
This is just have a fun and play with numbers and observations. So am posting it here as I didnt know of a more appropriate place to start this topic.
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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it - Buffett
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omshivaya
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Posted: 12/Sep/2006 at 5:52pm |
I'll start with an observation I have made:
There is something called a Pivot Point(very basic for technical guys), which is usually calculated using the previous day's high, low and closing points.
The formula is as under: (H+L+C)/3
H - Prev. day's high
L - Prev. day's low
C - Prev. day's close
Now, I have gathered a set of 5 year's of sensex data and what I find is this:
Whenever the current day's opening is above the PP, the closing also is above the PP and when the current day's opening is below the PP, the closing is also below the PP; PP being the Pivot point.
This occurs more than 70% of the times.
I dont know what it could mean or how could someone profit from it, bit it was just an observation.
If anyone has any kind of observation like this or wants to comment on the above, feel free to do so!
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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it - Buffett
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basant
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Posted: 12/Sep/2006 at 6:19pm |
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I know but he (SC) used to enchant people with this formula and since the ticket size was only Rs 2 lacs he was able to collect a lot of money.Now today I realized that this is a universal formula. he claimed to be the inventor of this 'tool'.
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If you could tell the future from a Balance Sheet then accountants and mathematicians would be the richest people in the world. I could be buying & selling stocks recommended here.Read the DISCLAIMER.
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omshivaya
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Posted: 12/Sep/2006 at 6:22pm |
Inventor of which tool: PP??
Pivot Point has been discovered long time back. He should be sued...at least now! Pure liars!
If he found a unique way of using PP, that may have been his tool BUT saying that PP is HIS tool is wrong, if he did say exactly that!
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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it - Buffett
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omshivaya
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Posted: 12/Sep/2006 at 6:25pm |
Thanks for sharing though. What about any particular day or month? Have you noticed something similar which happens on a particular month of a year or a particular day in a month.
I am just shooting in the dark and seeing what could come out of it!
If you can also provide a possible reason for why something like that happens, that would be great too!
Edited by omshivaya - 12/Sep/2006 at 6:26pm
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The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it - Buffett
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BubbleVision
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Joined: 05/Aug/2006
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Posted: 12/Sep/2006 at 7:05pm |
Yes i also know the Technecian BasantJi is telling about.
Om - Thank you for teaching me the formula for povit point.
I would like to make a point that they were trying to trade Intraday using technicals, which more often than not leads to losses. There the falt was with Intraday view and not the technicals.
Falt of the "person using Technicals" and "Technical analysis" as per say are two completely different things.
Not all Funda guys make money and not all technicians. There fore the fault lies with the person and not with the concept of "technicals and fundamentals" as per say.
The US Trade Balance(deficit) just hit a fresh record.. and the Dollar has rallied to a fresh 2 Month High -- try applying the Fundamentals there.....
For intraday trading nothing works. Not technicals nor fundamentals.
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You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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kulman
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Posted: 12/Sep/2006 at 7:09pm |
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For me PP sounds like PaagalPan
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Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
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Vivek Sukhani
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Posted: 24/Dec/2007 at 8:41am |
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The basic thing which goes against technical analysis is the number of people following it. In today's world even 23-24 year old are sending sms to their clients/friends regarding technical break-outs and break-downs. In such a scenario it becomes very big positional trader to assume the opposite position and suck the small traders. Since I deal with both fundamental analysts and technical analysts, I can say that both brandish their arrogance but in altogether a different manner. My dad and my uncles who have complete hatred for danda lakeer analysts display their extreme arrogance when they say they are not interested in anyone's views/news. They display arrogance in their deed. Some of my technical analyst friends call that they know very well how good they are and its their clients who should be asked how good they are....they brandish arrogance in their words. However, the number of people relying upon their own judgement and making a totally independent career out of equities is overwhelmingly in favour of fundamental analysts. I also believe if someone is so confident, then why the heck does he need someone to follow himself.....???????
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