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nikhil090
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Quote nikhil090 Replybullet Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 9:17pm
Originally posted by Monkey

 
I think it should not be too difficult to recognise bubble, though not bubble top. Signs could be historically high valuations for broad market, indexes creating record highs very often, huge divergence from 200 DMA and behaviour of people around you.
 
Nowadays, I do a small test. In any social gathering or conversation, I initiate something related to stocks. I have noticed that, nowadays, people are not interested in market. They somehow change the topic.
 
So, bubble needs to wait!!Tongue
 
 


But can the bubble happen in particular stories? Like IT in 1999-2000 and consumption for 2011-12-13-14????
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kumarn
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Quote kumarn Replybullet Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 10:07pm
Or, in a particular stock? Jubilant comes to my mind. It's current mcap is bigger than its parent, it seems.
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kumarn
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Quote kumarn Replybullet Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 10:09pm
Basant ji, I have a question, if you would be kind enough to answer. What are your thoughts on combining trading with long term investment - that is, can we trade on a stock that we are betting on the long term?

Has anyone else on this forum tried it? What has been your experience.
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Mohan
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Quote Mohan Replybullet Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 10:35pm
Golden words to remember.


Originally posted by basant



Thank you, as I say ideas can be borrowed or even stolen but not conviction that makes investing even more difficult then it actually is.

Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.
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somu0915
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Quote somu0915 Replybullet Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 11:13pm
Originally posted by Monkey

Nowadays, I do a small test. In any social gathering or conversation, I initiate something related to stocks. I have noticed that, nowadays, people are not interested in market. They somehow change the topic.


What you are doing is the famous Peter Lynch cocktail party theory.
It is very practical and I have experienced it many times myself.
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bail.aswal
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Quote bail.aswal Replybullet Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 9:12am
Originally posted by somu0915


Originally posted by Monkey

Nowadays, I do a small test. In any social gathering or conversation, I initiate something related to stocks. I have noticed that, nowadays, people are not interested in market. They somehow change the topic.
What you are doing is the famous Peter Lynch cocktail party theory.It is very practical and I have experienced it many times myself.


I read that Broking companies are making losses. Even RJ promoted Alchemy closed its broking arm recentely.

Can we say that, when broking companies start making profit, bubble builds up

Edited by bail.aswal - 05/Jul/2011 at 9:14am
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bhowman
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Quote bhowman Replybullet Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 9:13am


More-over once the bubble starts building it is important not to sell too early or hold it too long. I
[[/QUOTE] [/QUOTE]
 
 
Well said Basantji.
In my case, I was holding HDIL too long and saw it crumbling from 1400 levels to around 100.
Again I became panicky when SATYAM was hovering around 20 levels and I sold it for 18.
That which is so far is actually so near.
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tigershark
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Quote tigershark Replybullet Posted: 05/Jul/2011 at 10:17am

in an inflationary environment consumption and fmcg companies have the ability to raise prices and thus protect their margins which the mkt has discounted ,now that inflation may come down and interest rates start coming down beaten down stocks in the capex cycle may start outperforming and the consumption and fmcg stocks may have a more sedate time.so would it make sense to invest in good quality stocks in the capex cycle?has that time come?

understanding both the power of compound return and the difficulty getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things
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