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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Topic: TheEquityDesk Report Card March 2011
    Posted: 05/Apr/2011 at 11:57am

Dear Teddies,

One of the fascinating things about the stock market is its volatility and we had lots of it in the last quarter. Local issues, international catastrophes, tension in the Middle East all aided to the volatility. In times like these investors get a chance to pick up their favorite stocks at 30% lower to what they were available a couple of months back. I am talking of the good solid consumer names whereas for the infrastructure, construction and real-estate companies there is always sense in avoiding them unless they come down to levels close to single digit PE multiples high dividend yield with a 25%-30% RoE.

Many at TED did pick up the good companies when things were uncertain as is evident by the constant posts that kept coming in the Portfolio Check up section. As Warren Buffett says that the trick to being rich in the market is to be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy. The problem lies in identifying the lines of greed and fear but who says money making was ever easy?

The beauty with consumer stocks is that they make you feel wealthy even when the markets go down. Jim Rogers mentions that even if you make 50% for two years in a row and lose 50% in the third year you will perform worse off then a Bank FD. I wonder how many money managers and investors think about this while investing.

The negative side about consumer stocks is that you can’t get a quick double unless you have a company where there is scope for a PE expansion. Someone asked me about the Correct PE for a stock like Page Industries and my reply was “Predicting the correct PE of a stock is like predicting how long a man will live. You can say whether he is old or young but one can never pinpoint if he is too old to die today, same with PE”.

This is TED Report Card for March 2011.

 

Company

Recm

Recm

Current

Gain

 

Price

Price

Price

 

Hawkins Cooker

5-Sep-06

92

901

879.35

Titan Industries

18-Aug-06

749

3825

410.68

Page Industries

8-Feb-08

430

1680

290.70

Yes Bank

1-Sep-06

89

308

246.07

HDFC Bank

20-Jul-06

697

2320

232.86

HDFC,

5-Aug-06

249

690

177.11

Blue Star

6-Oct-06

137

378

175.91

Voltamp

1-Apr-09

340

603

152.94

Zydus Wellness

31-Mar-10

382

594

55.50

Thermax

15-Oct-07

690

640

-7.25

Voltas

28-Jan-08

220

175

-20.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Regards,


 Basant

 

 



Edited by basant - 05/Apr/2011 at 11:57am
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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dilip.r
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Quote dilip.r Replybullet Posted: 06/Apr/2011 at 12:21pm
How do u rank the above list for a buy now ?
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kd1974
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Quote kd1974 Replybullet Posted: 06/Apr/2011 at 12:23pm
Basant ji,
This is an excellent performance...better than all the professionals achieved in same duration. but with the start of new financial year, we need to look forward and look for picks for next years.
 
what are the TED picks for next 5 and 10 years horizon? what are the parameters they should qualify for inclusion in list for next 5-10 years? What are assumptions required to be proven correct to ensure that we track these picks on a quartley/years basis to review performance. Could you please start a thread on the same, if not already started.
 
Thanks and regards,
kd
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MR TED
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Quote MR TED Replybullet Posted: 06/Apr/2011 at 12:36pm
Originally posted by basant

Dear Teddies,

One of the fascinating things about the stock market is its volatility and we had lots of it in the last quarter. Local issues, international catastrophes, tension in the Middle East all aided to the volatility. In times like these investors get a chance to pick up their favorite stocks at 30% lower to what they were available a couple of months back. I am talking of the good solid consumer names whereas for the infrastructure, construction and real-estate companies there is always sense in avoiding them unless they come down to levels close to single digit PE multiples high dividend yield with a 25%-30% RoE.

Many at TED did pick up the good companies when things were uncertain as is evident by the constant posts that kept coming in the Portfolio Check up section. As Warren Buffett says that the trick to being rich in the market is to be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy. The problem lies in identifying the lines of greed and fear but who says money making was ever easy?

The beauty with consumer stocks is that they make you feel wealthy even when the markets go down. Jim Rogers mentions that even if you make 50% for two years in a row and lose 50% in the third year you will perform worse off then a Bank FD. I wonder how many money managers and investors think about this while investing.

The negative side about consumer stocks is that you can’t get a quick double unless you have a company where there is scope for a PE expansion. Someone asked me about the Correct PE for a stock like Page Industries and my reply was “Predicting the correct PE of a stock is like predicting how long a man will live. You can say whether he is old or young but one can never pinpoint if he is too old to die today, same with PE”.

This is TED Report Card for March 2011.

 

Company

Recm

Recm

Current

Gain

 

Price

Price

Price

 

Hawkins Cooker

5-Sep-06

92

901

879.35

Titan Industries

18-Aug-06

749

3825

410.68

Page Industries

8-Feb-08

430

1680

290.70

Yes Bank

1-Sep-06

89

308

246.07

HDFC Bank

20-Jul-06

697

2320

232.86

HDFC,

5-Aug-06

249

690

177.11

Blue Star

6-Oct-06

137

378

175.91

Voltamp

1-Apr-09

340

603

152.94

Zydus Wellness

31-Mar-10

382

594

55.50

Thermax

15-Oct-07

690

640

-7.25

Voltas

28-Jan-08

220

175

-20.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Regards,


 Basant

 

 



Clap Great Basantji! or rather Basantji the Great! Smile
Although more than 1 year into TED, i have none of them Confused Not sure if its right time to buy them



Edited by MR TED - 06/Apr/2011 at 12:37pm
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rdyn
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Quote rdyn Replybullet Posted: 06/Apr/2011 at 12:43pm
Originally posted by MR TED



Originally posted by basant


Dear Teddies,





One of the fascinating things about the stock market is its
volatility and we had lots of it in the last quarter. Local issues,
international catastrophes, tension in the Middle East
all aided to the volatility. In times like these investors get a chance to pick
up their favorite stocks at 30% lower to what they were available a couple of
months back. I am talking of the good solid consumer names whereas for the infrastructure,
construction and real-estate companies there is always sense in avoiding them
unless they come down to levels close to single digit PE multiples high dividend
yield with a 25%-30% RoE.

Many at TED did pick up the good companies when things were uncertain as is evident by the constant posts that kept coming in the Portfolio Check up section. As Warren Buffett says that the trick to being rich in the market is to be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy. The problem lies in identifying the lines of greed and fear but who says money making was ever easy?





The beauty with consumer stocks is that they make you feel
wealthy even when the markets go down. Jim Rogers mentions that even if you make
50% for two years in a row and lose 50% in the third year you will perform
worse off then a Bank FD. I wonder how many money managers and investors think
about this while investing.



The negative side about consumer stocks is that you can’t
get a quick double unless you have a company where there is scope for a PE
expansion. Someone asked me about the Correct PE for a stock like Page
Industries and my reply was<i style=""> “Predicting
the correct PE of a stock is like predicting how long a man will live. You can
say whether he is old or young but one can never pinpoint if he is too old to
die today, same with PE”.


Clap Great Basantji! or rather Basantji the Great! Smile Although more than 1 year into TED, i have none of them Confused Not sure if its right time to buy them



Superb performance

Thank you Basantji!

@Mr.TED, There is never a wrong time to do the right thing

Edited by rdyn - 06/Apr/2011 at 12:45pm
My aim is to read each and every post on TED!
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prabhakarkudva
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Quote prabhakarkudva Replybullet Posted: 06/Apr/2011 at 12:45pm
"It was never the right time or it was always the right time, depending on how you looked at it."
Ann Patchett
Take your chances and keep them in a box until a quieter time.
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rohan1104
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Quote rohan1104 Replybullet Posted: 06/Apr/2011 at 12:56pm
hi this is great advice!!! i hope to get some goods buys now as the markets are correcting.

i was adviced to buy DENA BANK! Can anyone tell me if its a good buy or not?
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rdyn
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Quote rdyn Replybullet Posted: 06/Apr/2011 at 12:57pm
Originally posted by prabhakarkudva

"It was never the right time or it was always the right time, depending on how you looked at it."

   —

    Ann Patchett



That is a great quote, Prabhakar
My aim is to read each and every post on TED!
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