Dear Teddies
At the outset I wish you a very happy and prosperous new
year. 2010 was a year where the TED XI stocks significantly better then the
indices thus superimposing the notion of focused stock selection.
The consumer names in the TED XI did significantly better
and I assume that they will continue to shine. As we have debated several times
before this bull market is led by the consumers and the while many money
managers are waiting for the infra stocks to resume heir 2003-07 trend I
personally think that consumers should do better on a risk reward profile.
Hawkins Cooker was one TED company which did phenomenally
well in the first half and then remained range bound for the later part of the
year. There were issues about the company scaling up its production to meet the
huge outstanding demand from the market checks that we have made it does appear
that the new supplies have started coming in. At least our channel checks from cities such as Kolkata, Delhi and a few towns in western Maharashtra reflect that
One interesting aspect about a company like Hawkins is that
it keeps taking up market share from the unorganized sector and the price point
difference between the organized and unorganized sector is huge. For instance a
branded pressure cooker sells for almost 3 times the price of its inferior
option in the unorganized space. So if there is a Rs 100 crore market demand
shift from the unorganized to the organized space it creates a Rs 300 crore new
demand for the branded manufacturers).
The fact that Tata Motors is facing trouble selling its
small car Nano tells a lot about the Indian consumer. The Indian consumer wants
better quality goods and is willing to pay a higher price for that. I think
that Nano facing headwinds is great news for all consumer discretionary
companies here in India.
Durinng a vacation to SIkkim I had a chance to visit the upcoming Zydus plant which is schedules to get operational from April 2011.
I have put down the
details in the Zydus thread on TheEquityDesk.
Company
|
Recm
|
Recm
|
Current
|
Gain
|
|
Price
|
Price
|
Price
|
(Loss)%
|
Hawkins Cooker
|
5-Sep-06
|
92
|
1351
|
1368.48
|
Titan Industries
|
18-Aug-06
|
749
|
3605
|
381.31
|
Page Industries
|
8-Feb-08
|
430
|
1522
|
253.95
|
Yes Bank
|
1-Sep-06
|
89
|
315
|
253.93
|
HDFC Bank
|
20-Jul-06
|
697
|
2320
|
232.86
|
Blue Star
|
6-Oct-06
|
137
|
434
|
216.79
|
HDFC,
|
5-Aug-06
|
249
|
728
|
192.37
|
Voltamp
|
1-Apr-09
|
340
|
765
|
152.94
|
Zydus Wellness
|
31-Mar-10
|
382
|
594
|
55.50
|
Thermax
|
15-Oct-07
|
690
|
874
|
26.67
|
Voltas
|
28-Jan-08
|
220
|
215
|
-2.27
|
.
Edited by basant - 02/Jan/2011 at 10:23am