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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Topic: TheEquityDesk report Card - December 2010
    Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 10:22am

Dear Teddies

At the outset I wish you a very happy and prosperous new year. 2010 was a year where the TED XI stocks significantly better then the indices thus superimposing the notion of focused stock selection.

The consumer names in the TED XI did significantly better and I assume that they will continue to shine. As we have debated several times before this bull market is led by the consumers and the while many money managers are waiting for the infra stocks to resume heir 2003-07 trend I personally think that consumers should do better on a risk reward profile.

Hawkins Cooker was one TED company which did phenomenally well in the first half and then remained range bound for the later part of the year. There were issues about the company scaling up its production to meet the huge outstanding demand from the market checks that we have made it does appear that the new supplies have started coming in. At least our channel checks from cities such as Kolkata, Delhi and a few towns in western Maharashtra reflect that

One interesting aspect about a company like Hawkins is that it keeps taking up market share from the unorganized sector and the price point difference between the organized and unorganized sector is huge. For instance a branded pressure cooker sells for almost 3 times the price of its inferior option in the unorganized space. So if there is a Rs 100 crore market demand shift from the unorganized to the organized space it creates a Rs 300 crore new demand for the branded manufacturers).

The fact that Tata Motors is facing trouble selling its small car Nano tells a lot about the Indian consumer. The Indian consumer wants better quality goods and is willing to pay a higher price for that. I think that Nano facing headwinds is great news for all consumer discretionary companies here in India.

Durinng a vacation to SIkkim I had a chance to visit the upcoming Zydus plant which is schedules to get operational from April 2011. I have put down the details in the Zydus thread on TheEquityDesk.

 

Company

Recm

Recm

Current

Gain

 

Price

Price

Price

(Loss)%

Hawkins Cooker

5-Sep-06

92

1351

1368.48

Titan Industries

18-Aug-06

749

3605

381.31

Page Industries

8-Feb-08

430

1522

253.95

Yes Bank

1-Sep-06

89

315

253.93

HDFC Bank

20-Jul-06

697

2320

232.86

Blue Star

6-Oct-06

137

434

216.79

HDFC,

5-Aug-06

249

728

192.37

Voltamp

1-Apr-09

340

765

152.94

Zydus Wellness

31-Mar-10

382

594

55.50

Thermax

15-Oct-07

690

874

26.67

Voltas

28-Jan-08

220

215

-2.27

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

 



 






Edited by basant - 02/Jan/2011 at 10:23am
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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trushik
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Quote trushik Replybullet Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 10:26am
Clap
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Circuit
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Quote Circuit Replybullet Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 10:49am
I think it also goes on to day that India is looking for an aspirational product. not just bare bone base product.


The fact that Tata Motors is facing trouble selling its small car Nano tells a lot about the Indian consumer. The Indian consumer wants better quality goods and is willing to pay a higher price for that. I think that Nano facing headwinds is great news for all consumer discretionary companies here in India.
Fundamentalists and anticipators may have difficulties with risk control because a trade keeps looking ‘better’ the more it goes against them....Ed Seykota
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rdyn
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Quote rdyn Replybullet Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 10:56am
@Basantji , <bows down>

@Circuit, +1
My aim is to read each and every post on TED!
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Quote SK1076 Replybullet Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 11:15am
Congratulations! Basant ji &  all Teddies.

Also, Wishing a very Happy & prosperous New Year 2011 to all the Teddies!


Patience PAYS/-
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bearish
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Quote bearish Replybullet Posted: 02/Jan/2011 at 11:56am
BasantJi since we are celebrating the hits, could we also figure out the misses such as Voltas and what has gone wrong with the company? The fact that it has still not be replaced in this report card indicates something about the future that you have analysed that makes you stay put on the recommendation?
Also it has been referred to in the Nira Radia tapes in a land dealing. Does that raise a red flag?

Edited by bearish - 02/Jan/2011 at 11:59am
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values
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Quote values Replybullet Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 12:02pm
Hi Basant,

I am the newest Teddie, i just joined yday. The TED forum has a lot of useful information. And congratulations on a wonderful report card.
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prashantmohta
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Quote prashantmohta Replybullet Posted: 03/Jan/2011 at 12:11pm
One interesting aspect about a company like Hawkins is that it keeps taking up market share from the unorganized sector and the price point difference between the organized and unorganized sector is huge. For instance a branded pressure cooker sells for almost 3 times the price of its inferior option in the unorganized space. So if there is a Rs 100 crore market demand shift from the unorganized to the organized space it creates a Rs 300 crore new demand for the branded manufacturers).
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this one is unique logic and i am difficult to find such difference in prices in any other industries.Clap
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