Active TopicsActive Topics  Display List of Forum MembersMemberlist  CalendarCalendar  Search The ForumSearch  HelpHelp
  RegisterRegister  LoginLogin

Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
 The Equity Desk Forum :Market Strategies :Buffet, Lynch and other legends - Investing Strategies
Message Icon Topic: Kabhi Khushi Kabhie Gham- Samir Arora Post Reply Post New Topic
Page  of 92 Next >>
Author Message
basant
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
Quote basant Replybullet Topic: Kabhi Khushi Kabhie Gham- Samir Arora
    Posted: 29/Aug/2006 at 8:46pm

This is a communication from India's best fund manager "Samir Arora"  to the investors of Alliance Mutual fund in 2001. The way he has summed up the events makes for a very interesting reading.

‘2001 Kabhi Khushi Kabhie Gham’... Samir Arora

Yaadein of the Indian stock markets in 2001 leaves one quite breathless. The year started off with a lot of Josh as investors had high expectations from the market after a disappointing 2000. The first two months of the year went off quite smoothly as investors focussed on the Indian budget, but in the Jungle of developments-global and local, the markets missed more than a mere Dhadkan.

Against a background of low expectations, the Indian budget came as a pleasant surprise. Cut in corporate and personal Lagaan (due to removal of surcharge) and a structural shift to lower interest rates were welcomed by the markets. In view of the government’s current state of Amdani Athanni Kharcha Rupaiyah much needed emphasis was placed on privatization and reduction in the size of the government. It is a different matter that nothing substantial has been achieved on these issues with three months left in the current year. Euphoria regarding the Indian budget lasted less than a day. Speculative unwinding, global meltdown of technology stocks-Pyaar Tune Kya Kiya- after the Paagalpan of 1999 and early 2000, introduction of Ajanabee rolling system and other problems led to Dooriyan between the investor and the stock market. Disappointed with the behavior of the markets post budget the government said Had Kar Di Aapne to the speculators and set up a Joint Parliamentary Committee to investigate why markets were behaving the way they did.

During the year, the world faced its first global synchronous recession in nearly three decades. Markets around the world were in Gadar as investors who were for many years in Pyaar with the markets were now in complete Khauff of it.

And then came September 11th. Hey Ram! Such heinous and despicable act of terrorism brought the world together to fight the unseen enemy. The markets reached their bottom within ten days of 9/11 and Chori Chori Chupke Chupke the markets started moving up well before any signs of success in the war against terrorism or economic revival had become evident. Many sceptics feel that fundamentals in the global and indeed Indian economy have not improved and are unable to reconcile it with the state of Sarfarosh and Deewanapan in the markets recently. However, the stock markets have an uncanny ability to forecast and discount the future and it seems that the world markets are predicting the end of recession in the USA in mid-2002.

In 2001 we also see the extremely high correlation between the Indian and US markets. It is interesting to note that the Sensex reached its bottom on the same day (September 21st) as NASDAQ and the Dow. Separately, even prior to September 11th we observed and were indeed saddened by the fact that the Indian markets have completely surrendered their independence to global and macro trends without any appreciation of the strengths and relative insulation (from global slowdown) of many Indian companies. We need to develop a class of investors who have their own Astitwa and can tell the foreign investors Yeh Tera Ghar Yeh Mera Ghar rather than getting lost in their Bawandar. Of course it is not true that all our problems are caused by global factors for we are quite self sufficient in creating our own problems.

Dil Chahta Hai that 2002 be a much better year than 2001. Last two years have been disappointing to say the least but –Phir Bhi Dil Hai Hindustani- there are many reasons for being bullish on India. Low interest rates, attractive valuations, good corporate performance from a number of Indian businesses and sectors and large retail cash position on the sideline earning record low interest rates is a potent combination for any market and we expect India to do well in 2002.

One important lesson investors can draw from the recent rally is that the price of certainty is very high in stock markets. Investors waiting for all factors to fall in place before committing money to equities can forgo significant potential gains. Investors should look at equities as a regular part of their savings plan rather than as one off market timing decision. Bas, Itna Sa Khwab Hai.

 



Edited by basant - 29/Aug/2006 at 9:56pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
IP IP Logged
The Lord
Newbie
Newbie
Avatar

Joined: 23/Jul/2006
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 12
Quote The Lord Replybullet Posted: 29/Aug/2006 at 9:21pm
when the market reached beyound 12000 mark i only prayed for "Kabhi alvida na kehna"

Edited by The Lord - 29/Aug/2006 at 9:21pm
wining is not everything, for me it is the only thing
IP IP Logged
basant
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 29/Aug/2006 at 9:48pm

At 12,700 we had gone deewana and when we touched 8800 I could see only black people told me to cash out chupke chupke but I held on like a Baazigar. The operator whom we thought was Shree 420 said Main hoon na. In between people called in to say that experts are saying not to buy but kya kehna dil hain ki manta nahin. As we head back towards 12,000 all I can say is salaam namaste because sab golmal hai.  

 



Edited by basant - 29/Aug/2006 at 10:39pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
IP IP Logged
BubbleVision
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 05/Aug/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 3142
Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 30/Aug/2006 at 12:01pm
A very intresting read.. Kya Kehna...This type of writing will take you to Shikhar.
Now can we call the current market Dhoom:2
 
BTW do you know where is Samir Arora now....


Edited by BubbleVision - 30/Aug/2006 at 12:03pm
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
IP IP Logged
basant
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: 01/Jan/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 18403
Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 30/Aug/2006 at 12:19pm

The last time I heard that Sebi tried becoming a Thanedar and made him a qaidi No. 1 They called him a Khalnayaak and thought that he was a Leader in today's GundaRaaj  but our andha kanoon catches only the Gentleman. He was released from the adalat with full ijjat and people said andaaj apna apna and Khuda Gawah.

Ttoday Samir runs a Hedge fund from Singapore.  
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
IP IP Logged
The Lord
Newbie
Newbie
Avatar

Joined: 23/Jul/2006
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 12
Quote The Lord Replybullet Posted: 30/Aug/2006 at 8:56pm
the current trend is again like the rising sun but i hope its not something that will be gone in sixty seconds  and bring on the apocalypse 
wining is not everything, for me it is the only thing
IP IP Logged
navneet
Newbie
Newbie


Joined: 24/Jul/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 2
Quote navneet Replybullet Posted: 01/Sep/2006 at 4:52pm
Interesting 1.......  to read, hopefully stock marketeers can remember lot of movie names
IP IP Logged
kulman
Senior Member
Senior Member
Avatar

Joined: 02/Sep/2006
Location: India
Online Status: Offline
Posts: 9319
Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 03/Sep/2006 at 3:52am
Nice topic and witty replies!!
 
Now there is trend of remaking old superhit movies. Do not believe those BLUFFMASTER analysts appearing on TV channels. The SATYA is keeping away from analysts' COMPANY will keep BUNTY & BUBBLY happy. Finally, let's hope that DON of bull market does not become DEVDAS!!
Life can only be understood backwards—but it must be lived forwards
IP IP Logged
Page  of 92 Next >>
Post Reply Post New Topic
Printable version Printable version

Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot create polls in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum



This page was generated in 0.172 seconds.
Bookmark this Page

Join Theequitydesk.com Today!

It’s easy to Join and it’s free.

Here's why members would love to be a part of theequitydesk.com

  • Equity Desk focuses on why to buy shares and invest in share rather than what to buy.
  • Live discussion forum wherein members can discuss the current Indian share Market trend, BSE Sensex or the Nifty Index.
  • Have huge cache of information on Indian and World Share Market.
  • Analysis of Indian stock market, Global events, Investing insights, portfolio management strategies and thoughts,
  • Meet investors from round the globe check their investing strategies share experiences and learn for their experiences on stocks and shares, evaluate opinions on investing in India.

Register now while it’s free!

Already a member? Close this window and log in.

Join Us           Close