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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Topic: Indian Markets and the so called experts!
    Posted: 25/Jun/2009 at 6:35pm

 

We have learnt some tough lessons said the CEO of India’s largest private sector MF who had promised his unit holders growth with vision. Another voice notorious for his tandaav with the bears a Le Grand From Age if you might call him has turned his tail 180 degrees. He was a bear a big one and is now a bull a quick hurried harmless bull, who gives no guarantee of his species because he might become a bull one day, a bear the other and a dog or a Pig depending on which way the wind is blowing.

 

The Star anchor of India’s much talked about business channel who was sporting different T Shirts as the sensex moved past each 1000 point brigade is now changing course. Having become an self styled analyst he seems to be cautioning with random and useless double talk with his co-host and changes his colour before you thought that you were color blind. For major part of the October 2008- March 2009  he was cautioning his investors “Make no mistake markets can go down to six and a half or maybe seven ” were his favorite lines and had we been there he would have proclaimed five and a half and six all in an effort to let an investor remain irrational in irrational times. No wonder he leapt at a Singapore based Hedge fund manager who had the guts to call him a panic driven desperate gatekeeper of a theater which had caught fire. I wonder who is having the last laugh now.

 

Coming back to our fearless bear he had the courage to call Buffett lucky well if luck makes money and intellect loses it I’d rather be lucky then intelligent. Mr. Bear writes a report every few days. He is good at English and probably a student of Gynecology. In one of his reports he was doing a pregnancy test on the bull! He said that after checking the urine he is of the opinion that this is not a bull market and that a bull trap. Those reports do make for interesting reading especially if you are fond of brushing up your English.

 

Then there is another who sees to rhythm with the range. His ranges are as deep as the Grand Canyon. The last time he was talking about 8000 anmd 16,000 and he seems to have upped his higher band at 19,500. Well if that is what the Stanley’s and the Goldman’s pay for then I’d rather be an employee then an investor.

 

I think that there is no way to check the quality on the Idiot Box for whatever reason it is called one. Now no one can tell me that you should switch off the TV because that means that if there is murder going on in front of my house I should just move away from the window and pull the curtains.

 

Markets are not about making a day trader out of every participant. It is also about long term education and if that looks too charitable to these business channels then well, good luck to them because sooner or later they will have to go free to air for their free advice. But as the critics would say there is are no free lunches in the world.

 

There is some serious flaw in the way the business channels operate. Either they are too stupid to understand their drawback or either too much hand in glove with the participants to create a psychology that they seem to have desired.

 

It takes no magic wand to understand why certain people including the self proclaimed momentum trader and several others are put up as mascots time and again. I think the primary precondition to have your face on TV is your English speaking skills rather then your thinking ones. No wonder the best of the speakers get mud and dust on their face but that's ok as long as there is a market we will have opinions but to blow the trumpet every time there is an opinion and to expect the crowd to be the bunch of rats and the mascot to be the Pied Piper of Hamlin is something that the crowd will be able to decipher sooner rather then later.

 

But as Gustave Le Bon wrote his book “THE CROWD A study of the Popular mind” the most eminent men seldom surpass the standard of the most ordinary individuals. From the intellectual point of view an abyss might exist between a great mathematician and his boot maker but from the point of view of character the difference is most often slight or non existent.

 

Strangely making money in the markets is 65% character and 35% intellect.

 

Also see: Letter from a bruised bull to the"expert"analyst.

 

 

 



Edited by basant - 25/Jun/2009 at 6:36pm
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hit2710
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Quote hit2710 Replybullet Posted: 25/Jun/2009 at 7:04pm
I feel that the business news  channel are catering to the needs of the people. Having interacted with a lot of my friends who invest in the markets, I find there are mainly two kinds of people, passive investors who buy what you or someone else tells them and forget about them and these people are so busy with their professions that they don't have the time to look at the channels.
 
The other are active investors/traders who look at all the news channels and then go for investments based on what is recommended or follow some so called tips and buy stocks with lofty targets and end up bruised. If we tell such people to buy some fundamentally  good stock with say 1-2 year view they scoff at you . 
 
News channel people target the latter group who are amenable to recommendations and tips and bring various experts and nowadays they also play a game also where three analysts are pitted against each other in buying and selling stocks on a daily basis and performance is then analysed. God knows how fundamentals change within a day or two.
 
If news channel people were to air recommendations for long term investment I dont think they will have too many viewers because there is no thrill involved in long term investment. It is comparable to test matches and one day matches and nowadays  20-20 matches. It is very easy to find out which one is most popular.
Stockmarket is a weird place. For every person who buys a stock there is a person who sells it and both think they are very smart.
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kumardiwesh
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Quote kumardiwesh Replybullet Posted: 25/Jun/2009 at 8:32pm
Business channels are selling a product, which may not necessarily be the best.
I think there is a huge difference in the perception of people when they are buying a financial product vis-a-vis when they are buying a consumer product.
People who appear on business channels are merely salesmen and not analysts.
They sell what people are willing to buy.
"History does not tell you the probability of future financial things happening" - Warren Buffett
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Janak.merchant1
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Quote Janak.merchant1 Replybullet Posted: 25/Jun/2009 at 8:34pm
Originally posted by basant

 

We have learnt some tough lessons said the CEO of India’s largest private sector MF who had promised his unit holders growth with vision. Another voice notorious for his tandaav with the bears a Le Grand From Age if you might call him has turned his tail 180 degrees. He was a bear a big one and is now a bull a quick hurried harmless bull, who gives no guarantee of his species because he might become a bull one day, a bear the other and a dog or a Pig depending on which way the wind is blowing.

 

The Star anchor of India’s much talked about business channel who was sporting different T Shirts as the sensex moved past each 1000 point brigade is now changing course. Having become an self styled analyst he seems to be cautioning with random and useless double talk with his co-host and changes his colour before you thought that you were color blind. For major part of the October 2008- March 2009  he was cautioning his investors “Make no mistake markets can go down to six and a half or maybe seven ” were his favorite lines and had we been there he would have proclaimed five and a half and six all in an effort to let an investor remain irrational in irrational times. No wonder he leapt at a Singapore based Hedge fund manager who had the guts to call him a panic driven desperate gatekeeper of a theater which had caught fire. I wonder who is having the last laugh now.

 

Coming back to our fearless bear he had the courage to call Buffett lucky well if luck makes money and intellect loses it I’d rather be lucky then intelligent. Mr. Bear writes a report every few days. He is good at English and probably a student of Gynecology. In one of his reports he was doing a pregnancy test on the bull! He said that after checking the urine he is of the opinion that this is not a bull market and that a bull trap. Those reports do make for interesting reading especially if you are fond of brushing up your English.

 

Then there is another who sees to rhythm with the range. His ranges are as deep as the Grand Canyon. The last time he was talking about 8000 anmd 16,000 and he seems to have upped his higher band at 19,500. Well if that is what the Stanley’s and the Goldman’s pay for then I’d rather be an employee then an investor.

 

I think that there is no way to check the quality on the Idiot Box for whatever reason it is called one. Now no one can tell me that you should switch off the TV because that means that if there is murder going on in front of my house I should just move away from the window and pull the curtains.

 

Markets are not about making a day trader out of every participant. It is also about long term education and if that looks too charitable to these business channels then well, good luck to them because sooner or later they will have to go free to air for their free advice. But as the critics would say there is are no free lunches in the world.

 

There is some serious flaw in the way the business channels operate. Either they are too stupid to understand their drawback or either too much hand in glove with the participants to create a psychology that they seem to have desired.

 

It takes no magic wand to understand why certain people including the self proclaimed momentum trader and several others are put up as mascots time and again. I think the primary precondition to have your face on TV is your English speaking skills rather then your thinking ones. No wonder the best of the speakers get mud and dust on their face but that's ok as long as there is a market we will have opinions but to blow the trumpet every time there is an opinion and to expect the crowd to be the bunch of rats and the mascot to be the Pied Piper of Hamlin is something that the crowd will be able to decipher sooner rather then later.

 

But as Gustave Le Bon wrote his book “THE CROWD A study of the Popular mind” the most eminent men seldom surpass the standard of the most ordinary individuals. From the intellectual point of view an abyss might exist between a great mathematician and his boot maker but from the point of view of character the difference is most often slight or non existent.

 

Strangely making money in the markets is 65% character and 35% intellect.

 

Also see: Letter from a bruised bull to the"expert"analys

 



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I love my money, not my opinion. So i am ready and willing to change my opinion for the sake of protecting my money.
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prashantmohta
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Quote prashantmohta Replybullet Posted: 25/Jun/2009 at 9:17pm
It is very well written basant.

Edited by basant - 25/Jun/2009 at 9:35pm
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Quote kanagala Replybullet Posted: 25/Jun/2009 at 10:09pm
Sir,
Well written one. It is same everywhere either developed or developing world. I spent some time recently watching CNBC. They invite some good guys to the show. But, they don't let them express their views.
While one person hesitates because he feels inferior, the other is busy making mistakes and becoming superior.
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Quote bharti Replybullet Posted: 25/Jun/2009 at 12:26pm
Great writeup Sir.  I agree with all the points.  Although I am aware of this, but still there is something which keeps me glued to TV screen atleast for around 60 minutes everyday.  Perhaps there is never ending wait for some exciting news to come up.  They do manage to create the thrill.  Even though we know most of the talk is from short term trading perspective and majority of experts/analysts change color as per market trend - still it gives some satisfaction when a stock which we hold is recommended by anyone.  If in your home, no body else is interested in this area, business channels give you 'good' company.
 
Further , channels will show only what sells, what is the characterstic of the population?  Why was there no new Mutual Fund offer for around 8-10 months?  Why was there no IPO over the last 1 year?  long term investors are in super thin minority.
 
Is there any investor on this forum who does not have a connection to all the TV Channels? or have not watched any Business Channel say even once this year?
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Quote paragdesai Replybullet Posted: 25/Jun/2009 at 9:37am
I like the views of Gul Teckchandani. He never recommends any stock but always try to analyse macro factors. That's why he is not most visible face on Business Channels.  
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity ....
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