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Trading Psychology
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Message Icon Topic: Letter from a bruised bull to the"expert"analyst. Post Reply Post New Topic
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vivekkumar_in
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Quote vivekkumar_in Replybullet Posted: 03/Oct/2006 at 3:20am
Analysis by US based so called high-funda foreign Investment brokers like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Merryl Lynch etc.. are none better than the ones you see taking about 5 Rs movement here and there and hence advising rto go long or short or to sell & reenter etc..

No one should forget, it is these same Brokers who aggressively pushed the American public to buy into anything that had a .com in it even some of them were advising companies that were in 4 digit PEs.

Totally clueless of fundamentals .. merely running by momentum and at  the end eat their own words by the end of IT bull run.. Nothing so great about these guys ..

But for some of our Mungerilals.. such guys in neat Tux or Suits look like Demi - Warren Buffet to them...


Edited by vivekkumar_in - 03/Oct/2006 at 3:21am
Often we forget there's a company behind every stock,and there's only one reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies.
P Lynch
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manishdave
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Quote manishdave Replybullet Posted: 03/Oct/2006 at 9:03am

Never invest in TV18 or any meida for honesty/dishonesty. Media companies are sin stocks like ITC/McDowell. Invest if you can see that they would be able to get more suckers for coming years.

It is sad that some poor investors lost money due to  Mathew. But those people would have lost money somewhere else otherwise due to their style of gambling.
 
Here I dont defend TV18 or Mathew. I strongly condemn both, but unfortunately that is how the world is.
 
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 03/Oct/2006 at 10:12am

Manish makes a great point. The renewal business that makes up for most of these Technical Analysts is less then 15%. Each year they get 85% new custonmers and only 15% agreee  to renew. SO how do they run their offices then. I was told that Investor A moves from Analyst X to Analyst Y while Mr B moves from ANalyst Y to ANalyst X.

The total amount of money that is to be lost remains the same. We can all blame the "expert"  but the point is that a person who does not know what he is doing ought to lose what ever he has!
 
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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BubbleVision
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Quote BubbleVision Replybullet Posted: 03/Oct/2006 at 11:26am
Let us not blame the Brokerages only as they are doing a great job for their shareholders. Look at GS, If i am correct, the stock is now up 3 times in the last three years (manish correct me if i am wrong) and look at AMEX brokers and dealers index.. That has lead the rally since 2003 (again manish correct me if i am wrong).
 
If we blame only brokerages for the 2000 IT mania.. then we are refusing to take personal responsibility. 
 
Fund Management is the worst job, as if FundManager refuses to buy a "overvalued" stock then he runs the risk of underperforming the market (and losing his job) and when the same "overvalued" stock falls, then he is accused of buying overvalued stuff...both ways they only lose, i guess that is the reason they are paid highly.
You can't make money if you are unwilling to lose...It's like willing to breathe in but not willing to breathe out. -- ED SEYKOTA ....Read Disclaimer!
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reetesh
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Quote reetesh Replybullet Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 12:24pm
Another hedge fund in trouble.
 
 
This is what over optimism tend to do to people, people are investing everything which come underneath core. But in my mind smart people will reliase that equity is best among all asset classes over a period of time.


Edited by reetesh - 04/Oct/2006 at 12:26pm
When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
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India_Bull
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Quote India_Bull Replybullet Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 1:25pm

I dont know whether this is the right topic for my post, but just wanted to understand why Ambarish Baliga is conveying or trying to impose his views to the viewers that he is 50% cash and want to increase to 75% or there is a going to be huge correction as I got from his interview in Moneycontrol...

India_Bull forever Bull !
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 1:45pm
SOme how I have always found this business of timing the markets very naive. No one practically no one has been able to to do it consistently and coming to the  business of holding cash it  makes littlke sense to do it each time the market moves by 15% - 20%.
 
Baliga has been advocating this since we were at 11,000 and I have always felt that if you are consistent you will sometimes  be right!


Edited by basant - 04/Oct/2006 at 1:47pm
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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reetesh
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Quote reetesh Replybullet Posted: 04/Oct/2006 at 1:54pm
No no no sir, Bhag-lega was holding 70% cash when market was at 7000 and it went upto 12600 odd, his only call which was I don`t know how many bagger it was, was Praj Inds. He first reco. it when it was at only Rs.40 much before RJ  that was his only call which he got it right that is why I say to people that when people take call only stocks they are 50% time right but when they give broad call on market his name suggest correctly Armb..  Bhag-lega. or rather lena chahiye usko.
When going gets tough, that’s when tough (people) gets going.
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