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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 09/Sep/2006 at 11:44pm
Yes that is true too. But please be sure of one thing. This forum should stay alive for the next 20-25 years at least. Remember, we may have to face a crash sometime in the future, 5-10 years down the line and if that happens, we should be here helping each other out and at least TRY TO ANALYZE BEFOREHAND that a crash is on the offing! It is not easy, but at least we can try and create "crash-management" techniques. Something like when there is an intelligence that some kind of bomb threat could be there on the Red Fort, the "Disaster-management" team formulates a possible scenario and finds out a solution. In case of an explosion, still a "disaster-management" group finds out solutions.
 
I think it would be best to formulate strategies of what to do in case of a crash,  so that we can all be ready for it mentally to some extent.
 
 
We should try at least!
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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basant
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 09/Sep/2006 at 11:55pm
I do hope so and you seem to have some very unique terms to describe things "Crash management" techniques.
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 10/Sep/2006 at 2:24pm
Well. I dont know of the terms. I just speak what comes naturally to me. I think if we open up a topic asking people of what "crash-management" techniques they have put in place to handle a crash in their portfolio, we could all learn something from each other and maybe refine our own strategies in the process to handle a crash. Who knows? The mind should always be open! We may think there is not a solution for a crash, but maybe somewhere somebody has thought of something. Who knows?
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 10/Sep/2006 at 5:45pm
Great idea can you elaborate on that so that we could have a discussion startiing on it.
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omshivaya
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Quote omshivaya Replybullet Posted: 10/Sep/2006 at 12:00pm

I usually buy a stock fully or at best what I do is this:

 
50% now and then 50% later on when it falls off 15%. Then I just wait for years on the stock.
 
 
Of course I do my research on my stock before even thinking of buying it. I dont want to average a stock which I dont think has a great future and good fundamentals.
The most important quality for an investor is temperament,not intellect.A temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd nor against it
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 10/Sep/2006 at 12:59pm

Yes, personally I would never buy something after it moves because since my choice is so limited I am already invested into the things that I like - if the stock does not move then I keep on buying more of it.  Each time in my portfolio I want at least one stock not to move because that helps me to keep loading up with incremental cash.

 

I will tell you a very interesting thing. i first bought TV 18  in October 2003 at Rs 145 from then on it moved within the range of Rs 140 to Rs 150. Each time it moved to rs 240 I would think that now it will break out but it would not it would come back to Rs 150....

 

At that time I had a good exposure to NDTV at Rs 85 (July 2004 apprrx) and suddenly NDTV started moving up but TV 18 would not budge from Rs 160.

 

AT that time I met Pronoy Roy who was taking an afternoon walk with his wife "Radhika Roy" near the Taj Bengal hotel at kolkata. I walked out of the car and we started a conversation. Initially I thought that he might not respond but he seemed more then eager to communicate.

 

I asked him as to how he saw CNBC and he replied "CNBC is powerful” That was enough for me to make up my mind and I thought of switching since TV 18  was getting cheaper and cheaper. At Rs 115 I sold off all my NDTV and converted it into TV 18 at Rs 160 odd.

 

In 3 hours the stock was a Rs 120 and people who had sold out with me were now feeling the heat "takdir kharab hai 3 gghanta mei itna nuksan etc etc"

 

Since I deal in single transactions I had no NDTV left to sell at Rs 120 and the stock rocketed to Rs 140 in 2 weeks TV 18 refusing to move.

 

Soon NDTV overtook TV 18.

 

Now from October 2003 to February 2005 TV 18 could have been bought at Rs 160 - Rs 180. I kept buying with each stock that I sold and soon I had taken a meaningful position. Suddenly the bump up came in March 2005 and in one year the stock was a four bagger with NDTV not having doubled from a price of Rs 115.

 

What I want to say that value with growth is a deadly combination and once you have got that then take a position such that it makes a meaningful difference to your balance sheet.



Edited by basant - 10/Sep/2006 at 1:00am
'The Thoughtful Investor: A Journey to Financial Freedom Through Stock Market Investing' - A Book on Equity Investing especially for Indian Investors. Book your copy now: www.thethoughtfulinvestor.in
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Quote kulman Replybullet Posted: 10/Sep/2006 at 1:08am
Excellent interpretation of events (meeting with P. Roy), great conviction, patience!!
 
There is a lot to learn from this experience. Combination of what Buffet and Lynch would do.
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Quote basant Replybullet Posted: 10/Sep/2006 at 1:17am
Yes, it did happen Peter Lynch styleI still remember how Pronoy pointed his thumb towards the sky and.....
 
But I would like to give due credit to him also for speaking out the truth, imagine what a normal management would have said. When I asked Pranoy that since we have four financial news papers surviving in india can we have two business channel (Profit was being launched) to survive he said yes, and we may at some later date have some regional channels doing business talk.
 
In fact that 4 minute meeting has made me richer by quite a few. Who knows what would have happenses had I not met him on the ROAD!
 
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