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Message Icon Topic: Goodricke- can it be really good? Post Reply Post New Topic
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 24/Dec/2010 at 9:52am
Excel Sir...do you have any sense for tea prices and how it behaves in general and the demand/supply?

Mr. Khaitan has been making this point for some time...while he talks about supply/demand being the key driver it looks more like industry consolidation is causing tea prices to move up
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 24/Dec/2010 at 9:58am
Originally posted by excel_monkey

Aditya Khaitan of McLeod Russel believes that the tea prices are going to be strong

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/whereteapricesheaded_507840.html


Finished reading now...Very very interesting interview......

Thanks for posting.....
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excel_monkey
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Quote excel_monkey Replybullet Posted: 24/Dec/2010 at 10:15am
Subu ji
Tea being a commodity is like a s@x worker hence can not be trusted
yet there are a few positives for tea

1. It is very hard to set up a new plantation of a decent size (land and environmental clearance etc)
2. it takes 5 years for tea plant to mature to reap tea leaves
3. there has been massive under investment in tea plantations in last 10 years
4. tea demand has been growing consistently (3.5% in India)
5. Tea is an emerging market bottom of pyramid consumer drink i.e. high growth
6. General asset price inflation should also effect the tea prices

I would be positive on tea

I had written a note some 3 years back here under my old Avatar "tyro" -

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1039&KW=jayshree+tea&PID=32876#32876
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bsk0404
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Quote bsk0404 Replybullet Posted: 24/Dec/2010 at 10:56am
Some one told me that tea plant takes 12-14 years to mature. you said 3.5 years. i dont know any thing about the tea plantation. other thing do you know the listed name of C somabhai's tea of ahmedabad.
There are only 2 tragedies in market 1st buying a good stock at wrong price 2n buying wrong stock at any price.
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subu76
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Quote subu76 Replybullet Posted: 24/Dec/2010 at 11:24am
Originally posted by excel_monkey

Subu ji
Tea being a commodity is like a s@x worker hence can not be trusted
yet there are a few positives for tea

1. It is very hard to set up a new plantation of a decent size (land and environmental clearance etc)
2. it takes 5 years for tea plant to mature to reap tea leaves
3. there has been massive under investment in tea plantations in last 10 years
4. tea demand has been growing consistently (3.5% in India)
5. Tea is an emerging market bottom of pyramid consumer drink i.e. high growth
6. General asset price inflation should also effect the tea prices

I would be positive on tea

I had written a note some 3 years back here under my old Avatar "tyro" -

http://www.theequitydesk.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=1039&KW=jayshree+tea&PID=32876#32876


The comparison is interesting

Hmm.....But isn't your s*x worker point and being positive on tea point are somewhat contradictory?

I've thought a lot about tea stocks and have been unable to swing one way or the other.....

Here is a graph on tea prices over the years LinkTea prices over the years

So it seems that tea prices are at 10 year highs..

Offcourse, that not to say prices will not rise further....

My point is that if tea prices rise Goodricke will be a huge huge winner...but I'm finding it hard based on my limited knowledge about this sector to figure out if prices will continue it's uptrend

Do you think tea prices will continue to rise?

Edited by subu76 - 24/Dec/2010 at 11:27am
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excel_monkey
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Quote excel_monkey Replybullet Posted: 25/Dec/2010 at 6:55pm
I have been stalking Jayshree (Tea ) since 2003 when it touched Rs. 22 levels
and ultimately bought it at 93 (all prices adjusted for bonus) in early 2008
I had to go through some pain in the carnage but the tea prices held up and now I am in profit (not that decent when compared to consumer plays)

With regards to the prices they are just an optical illusion

The house where you stay is up 5 times in last 10 years
The meal which you buy is up 6 times in last 10 years
All other agricultural commodities are up several times in last 10 years
The capital and operational costs across the industries, products and commodities have gone up several times in last 10 years
Our income has gone up several times in last 10 years
There are barriers to entry in this business in India (land acquisition and time it takes to start a plantation)
Demand and supply scenario is favourable

Why shouldn’t the tea prices go up?

Originally posted by subu76

   
The comparison is interesting

Hmm.....But isn't your s*x worker point and being positive on tea point are somewhat contradictory?

I've thought a lot about tea stocks and have been unable to swing one way or the other.....

Here is a graph on tea prices over the years LinkTea prices over the years

So it seems that tea prices are at 10 year highs..

Offcourse, that not to say prices will not rise further....

My point is that if tea prices rise Goodricke will be a huge huge winner...but I'm finding it hard based on my limited knowledge about this sector to figure out if prices will continue it's uptrend

Do you think tea prices will continue to rise?
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