One aspect of the investing community that needs a debate is the precise role of research analysts. The Oxford dictionary defines an analyst as �a person whose job involves examining facts or materials in order to give an opinion on them�. Contrary to this a majority of research analysts function as search analysts. Company managements are expected to provide all clues and leads. These projected management aspirations commonly termed as �guidance� is the basic crux for research. Companies that do not provide guidance are not put under the crystal ball for forecasting numbers. In the backdrop of the projected numbers analysts keep working with various permutations on borrowed excel sheets thus arriving at a recommendations rarely 20% beyond (each side) of the current price.
Almost all conference calls are focused with questions on numbers, numbers and more numbers. The reference to business dynamics, competitive landscape, market set up, customer perception, long range goals and other subjective attributes of business analysis is completely missing. The focus is to get the q on q numbers. No wonder research has become a QSQT - Quarter se Quarter tak.
In a management cocall the typical questions that come out are:
a) What would be your sales growth for the coming quarter and the year?
b) Will we maintain the same EBIDTA Margins if so how so if not why not?
c) What is the proposed debt level (for calculation of interest costs)?
d) What are the plans for Capital spending (for computation of depreciation and cash flow analysis).
e) Dividend payout ratio (for calculation of Book value/Retained earnings).
The benefit that management projections provide to analysts is that it makes it easier for them to shift the burden of negligence and provides an escape route. In companies whose management does not provide guidance the burden of incompetence cannot be shifted hence these companies are excluded from coverage by most analysts.
On the other hand when a company starts providing guidance to the nearest percentage analysts get down to the excel sheet to the nearest paisa. It gets a lot easier. More multibaggers originate from companies that do not provide guidance then from companies that do. For companies that provide guidance the efficient market hypothesis is in complete vogue. Bhaav Bhagwaan hai (In the ticker lies the god) all prices discount what the management had set out to do. The only thing that can surprise the investing community is the only thing that can surprise the management as well. So companies that do elaborate conference calls, investor presentations and showcase their investment worthiness have more room for disappointment then companies that do neither of these.
Michael Steinhardt allocates all his success to one principle �Variant Perception�. That is how much the actual would differ from the expected. The chances of variant perception is more with a tight lipped company that talks once a year then with a management that opens its mouth four times in twelve months.
2018.3.22chenlixiang
Posted on:1/29/2018 6:16:24 PMninest123
pandora charms
**** outlet
tory burch outlet
ugg boots clearance
michael kors outlet
mulberry****
michael kors outlet
michael kors outlet
cheap jordans for sale
uggs outlet
uggs outlet
**** outlet
polo ralph lauren
longchamp****
ray ban sunglasses outlet
ugg boots clearance
ray ban pas cher
adidas nmd r1
michael kors outlet online
pandora outlet
yeezy boost
ugg boots clearance
ugg boots clearance
pandora rings
oakley sunglasses for men
**** outlet online
**** outlet store online
canada goose
fred perry polo shirts
fred perry
ugg boots
canada goose jackets
nike outlet
mlb jerseys wholesale
fitflops sale
canada goose
ferragamo shoes
uggs outlet
cheap ugg boots
ferragamo shoes sale
canada goose outlet store
canada goose
michael kors outlet
ray ban sunglasses wholesale
pandora jewelry
pandora outlet
canada goose jackets canada
polo outlet
michael kors outlet online
nike factory store
michael kors outlet store
ugg boots clearance
true religion outlet
polo outlet
polo ralph lauren
michael kors outlet store
michael kors outlet store
canada goose jackets
ugg outlet
polo outlet
cheap ray ban sunglasses
ugg outlet
**** outlet
kate spade
moncler jackets
oakley sunglasses
moncler sale
polo outlet
cheap jordans
pandora outlet store
nike outlet store
polo ralph lauren
ugg boots on sale
nmd adidas
mbt
mont blanc pens
canada goose outlet
ugg boots clearance
adidas yeezy shoes
ugg outlet online
christian louboutin sale
tory burch outlet
uggs outlet
adidas shoes
christian louboutin outlet
canada goose jackets
polo shirts
pandora charms
**** outlet online
adidas yeezy boost
polo ralph lauren
michael kors outlet online
canada goose
kate spade****
canada goose outlet store
ralph lauren outlet
ugg sale
ralph lauren outlet
cheap ugg boots
uggs outlet
canada goose jackets
pandora outlet
michael kors****
christian louboutin outlet
**** outlet online
michael kors outlet
polo outlet
michael kors outlet clearance
mlb jerseys
canada goose jackets
giuseppe zanotti outlet
michael kors outlet online
polo ralph lauren sale
canada goose jackets
polo ralph lauren
clarks shoes
ray ban sunglasse
**** outlet online
pandora outlet
true religion
mulberry****
supreme hoodie
**** outlet
uggs outlet store
pandora jewelry
cheap nhl jerseys
adidas nmd r1
mont blanc outlet
tory burch sandals
ugg outlet
nike shoes for men
true religion outlet online
nike outlet store
ray ban wayfarer
uggs outlet
**** outlet online
michael kors official site
canada goose outlet
ugg outlet online clearance
hermes outlet
pandora charms
cheap ray bans sunglasses
nfl jerseys
kate spade****
ray ban sunglasses
tory burch****
mbt shoes
ray ban sunglasses
air jordan retro
pandora outlet
ugg boots
cheap ugg boots
pandora outlet
polo ralph lauren outlet online
adidas yeezy
pandora rings
canada goose outlet
canada goose jackets
ugg outlet
**** factory outlet
ralph lauren outlet
ray ban sunglasse
uggs outlet
uggs outlet
canada goose uk
canada goose jackets
polo ralph lauren
canada goose
ugg outlet
mbt outlet
uggs outlet
michael kors outlet
pandora outlet
christian louboutin outlet
cheap jordan shoes
**** outlet
mbt shoes
pandora charms sale clearance
**** outlet online
polo shirts
ugg outlet
canada goose outlet store
**** outlet
true religion outlet
lebron james shoes
uggs outlet
**** outlet store online
michael kors outlet
nike air max
ralph lauren outlet
michael kors outlet clearance
**** outlet online
prada outlet
ugg outlet
fred perry shirts
michael kors**** sale
ugg outlet online
ralph lauren
canada goose jackets
nike outlet store
yaoxuemei20180130